Rumour Future of the club (Bevo, board, assistant coaches, football department)

[VogonProsthetnic]

Trying to think what’s been the most embarrassing defeat since the shambles of a last quarter in the 2021 grand final.

The constant losses to Melb where the game plays out the exact same way every single time? 2022, 2023, 2024 have been basically carbon copies.

Same with Geelong. Every time (besides when they played their twos) we lose in the exact same way.

The elimination final loss to Fremantle where we had them dead and buried at half time?

Round 2 in 2023 vs Essendon where Ross Lyon obliterated Beveridge in the box. Underrated how embarrassing this night was.

Losing to the Hawks in Tassie when our season was on the line? Liber goes down and Beveridge just lets Newcombe run around by himself all day. Tim English taking kick outs just horrible.

Losing to the Eagles? Nothing really needs to be said here.

I reckon last night was right up there. Losing to an Essendon side which was dead set weak vs Port. Smashed by injuries. Their full forward suspended. One goal in a half until the game was dead. Just so sad.

I think the most disappointing thing is we’ve basically pissed away all time great seasons from Bont and all time great inside mid seasons from Liber. Plus Macrae from 2018-2022. That’s the best midfield this club has ever had, and they’ve got one flag to show for it. When they were kids.

We all talk about 2016 and 2021, but people forget how s**t we were in 2017 and 2018. That we got demolished by GWS in a final in 2019. Lost to the Saints in a final 2020. Had one of the all time chokes in 2022 against Freo. Even when we made the gran final in 2021 we were behind the 8 ball cos we choked in the end of the home and away.

Everyone was so unworried about Dunkley going, he was a massive loss. I worry that if we lose Smith what it’s gonna do to the midfield. So much heavy lifting by Liber, Bont and Treloar.

The mismanagement of players. Macrae, Daniel, JJ, Dunkley all stars who got mismanaged. So many average players you could name as well. So many VFL players getting games over these days. It just makes no sense.

I don’t know what has to happen for this s**t show to end, but if we piss away the Jammarah / Darcy / Naughton era like we did the Bont / Liber / Macrae I’ll be very sad.

You omitted the numerous close losses last year where we led until the end when we allowed easy out the back goals. GC, Sydney and GWS come to mind. Incompetent coaching on each occasion.

Yet the board acted like it never happened.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

If English leaves as a free agent don't we get a pick beside where our first would have been? Might be the only silver lining of bombing out.

 

[PurpJuice]

If English leaves as a free agent don't we get a pick beside where our first would have been? Might be the only silver lining of bombing out.

English won’t leave. Only Bailey Smith will leave. How much do we think he’s worth?

 

[fred cook]

You omitted the numerous close losses last year where we led until the end when we allowed easy out the back goals. GC, Sydney and GWS come to mind. Incompetent coaching on each occasion.

Yet the board acted like it never happened.

Maybe the fact that the Bulldogs board has a lack of football knowledge (excluding Darcy) with the no brainer choice of given Bevo a two year extension

On CPH2305 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[fred cook]

I can't see the problem if we gave Leon Cameron

Leon Cameron

Age

52

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.2

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.7

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.9

3star

No current season stats available

D

20.8

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.8

3star

the Bulldogs coaching job that it would be a problem to leave his current role now I understand if your a assistant coach it's harder to leave that role during mid year but Leon's rule seems more of an executive roll so might be easier to leave that role mid year https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/1484672/leon-cameron-egm-football

On CPH2305 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BulldogMuscle]

I can't see the problem if we gave Leon Cameron the Bulldogs coaching job that it would be a problem to leave his current role now I understand if your a assistant coach it's harder to leave that role during mid year but Leon's rule seems more of an executive roll so might be easier to leave that role mid year https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/1484672/leon-cameron-egm-football

On CPH2305 using BigFooty.com mobile app

I’m incredibly strongly opposed to any coach who’s been a head coach before. Statistics don’t lie, they very very rarely go on to win a premiership VS a first time coach.

 

[bontiful speciman]

I’m incredibly strongly opposed to any coach who’s been a head coach before. Statistics don’t lie, they very very rarely go on to win a premiership VS a first time coach.

 

[bontiful speciman]

I’m hearing Bevo has pulled the pin.

 

[bontiful speciman]

I’m hearing Bevo has pulled the pin.

Board meeting Monday

 

[fred cook]

Did all your under 15 super coach friends give you this information

On CPH2305 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Doggy]

Board meeting Monday

No he hasn't

You read a fake Tom Browne twitter account

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Tom Browne 7. Not sure that fake acount has ever got it right despite hundreds of darts.

 

[Sentinel]

I’m incredibly strongly opposed to any coach who’s been a head coach before. Statistics don’t lie, they very very rarely go on to win a premiership VS a first time coach.

Copying a post I wrote early last year (so excludes McRae's flag):

Since 1990, there have been 112 coaching appointments - including those who were hired prior to 1990 but still coaching from 1990 onwards, excluding caretaker positions and 2023 new hires. Of those 112 appointments, 79 were first timers (70.5%) and 33 had previous stints (29.5%). Of the 33 premierships won since 1990, 24 were to first timers (72.7%) and 9 were to coaches who had previous stints (27.3%).

In the AFL era there really isn't anything clear cut to say that you are more likely to win a flag with a new coach than a re-hired coach, or vice versa. The 'failure' rate (ie no premierships won) since 1990 for coaches, both re-hired and new, sits somewhere around 85%.

 

[lachy]

Copying a post I wrote early last year (so excludes McRae's flag):

Since 1990, there have been 112 coaching appointments - including those who were hired prior to 1990 but still coaching from 1990 onwards, excluding caretaker positions and 2023 new hires. Of those 112 appointments, 79 were first timers (70.5%) and 33 had previous stints (29.5%). Of the 33 premierships won since 1990, 24 were to first timers (72.7%) and 9 were to coaches who had previous stints (27.3%).

In the AFL era there really isn't anything clear cut to say that you are more likely to win a flag with a new coach than a re-hired coach, or vice versa. The 'failure' rate (ie no premierships won) since 1990 for coaches, both re-hired and new, sits somewhere around 85%.

Statisticaly speaking it is not the failure rate it is surely the success rate that drives more first time coaches to be appointed in the first place.

With a success rate well into to 70th percentile most clubs will appoint a new coach.

Given also that since 1990 a former senior coach has won a premiership in 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2001,2002 and 2003 it is also fair to argue in the last 20 years of the AFL there has only been 1 premiership won by a former senior coach, 2010 Mick Malthouse who also accounted for 2 of the earlier AFL era flags.

Therefore it is fair to argue that you are much more likely to have success with a coach in their first role, the facts do support this

On SM-S926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sentinel]

Statisticaly speaking it is not the failure rate it is surely the success rate that drives more first time coaches to be appointed in the first place.

With a success rate well into to 70th percentile most clubs will appoint a new coach.

Given also that since 1990 a former senior coach has won a premiership in 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2001,2002 and 2003 it is also fair to argue in the last 20 years of the AFL there has only been 1 premiership won by a former senior coach, 2010 Mick Malthouse who also accounted for 2 of the earlier AFL era flags.

Therefore it is fair to argue that you are much more likely to have success with a coach in their first role, the facts do support this

On SM-S926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Not sure if I follow your first point here. Between 1990 and 2022, first time coaches won 72.7% of flags but also made up 70.5% of the coaching population, so whilst they make up the majority, proportionally they overachieve but only slightly.

It's a fairly small sample set though, admittedly, and I'd also guess there's certain bias here (eg premiership coaches may be more likely to retire than change clubs, 2nd time coaches are more likely to have been proven successful at their previous club to earn a re-hiring at a new club etc etc). The numbers are also distorted by coaches winning multiple flags, both new hires (Clarko, Hardwick, Scott) and re-hires (Matthews, Malthouse, Blight) - I haven't crunched the numbers to see how the stats look when that is accounted for but again it's a small sample size to draw any statistically significant conclusion from. You can also draw the line at 20 years, 30 years, 10 years and the figures are going to look different.

Main point is that I don't think it's all that clear cut either way, really, in order to make a strong conclusion that we should or shouldn't hire a new coach based on past statistics.

 

[GettingLibbered]

Not sure if I follow your first point here. Between 1990 and 2022, first time coaches won 72.7% of flags but also made up 70.5% of the coaching population, so whilst they make up the majority, proportionally they overachieve but only slightly.

It's a fairly small sample set though, admittedly, and I'd also guess there's certain bias here (eg premiership coaches may be more likely to retire than change clubs, 2nd time coaches are more likely to have been proven successful at their previous club to earn a re-hiring at a new club etc etc). The numbers are also distorted by coaches winning multiple flags, both new hires (Clarko, Hardwick, Scott) and re-hires (Matthews, Malthouse, Blight) - I haven't crunched the numbers to see how the stats look when that is accounted for but again it's a small sample size to draw any statistically significant conclusion from. You can also draw the line at 20 years, 30 years, 10 years and the figures are going to look different.

Main point is that I don't think it's all that clear cut either way, really, in order to make a strong conclusion that we should or shouldn't hire a new coach based on past statistics.

I think you miss interpreted the stats. There isn’t a success rate of 70% for first time coaches. First time coaches are over represented hence a higher number.

79 first timers who won 24 premierships. 31% success rate

33 coaches with previous appointments won 9. 27% success rate.

 

[Sentinel]

I think you miss interpreted the stats. There isn’t a success rate of 70% for first time coaches. First time coaches are over represented hence a higher number.

79 first timers who won 24 premierships. 31% success rate

33 coaches with previous appointments won 9. 27% success rate.

No I'd never suggest that 70% of first time coaches win flags.

I guess I'm going off 'flags won by coach type' (being ~70% by first timers, ~30% by re-hires since 1990), rather than '% of coach type to win a flag or not' (as you're showing here) which is maybe a better way to represent it, although the numbers you used are overstated since they include repeat flags won by the same coach. As stated above, would need to crunch the numbers again to see how that stat looks.

 

[fred cook]

No I'd never suggest that 70% of first time coaches win flags.

I guess I'm going off 'flags won by coach type' (being ~70% first timers, ~30% re-hires), rather than '% of coach type to win a flag or not' (as you're showing here) which is maybe a better way to represent it, although the numbers you used are overstated since they include repeat flags won by the same coach. As stated above, would need to crunch the numbers again to see how that stat looks.

With Port winning and second on the ladder would it be a perfect time for the Bulldogs to get Josh Carr to the Dogs as head coach

On CPH2305 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sentinel]

With Port winning and second on the ladder would it be a perfect time for the Bulldogs to get Josh Carr to the Dogs as head coach

On CPH2305 using BigFooty.com mobile app

I mentioned earlier today that he'd be my pick to replace Bevo, but apparently is lined up in a succession plan to replace Hinkley.

 

[JTCWBFC]

I want Lappin or Chaplin purely because I'm sick of our defence being so shit.

Get some of that Melbourne / Geelong defensive structure & build from there.

 

[geoffjennings79]

My intel as of 10 minutes ago is a board meeting has been called for early this week.

The chat/rumour in a group of ex-players, some of whom have been assistants or worked in player management, is that Gia and Grant communicate more regularly than you'd expect ex-team mates to do. Especially more recently.

Also possibly a case of 2 + 2 = 17.
Also not sure how any of their group would know how often Gia and Grant actually talk - none are ex-Bulldogs.
Sounded good when my mate who's part of this group told a few of us the 'story' this arvo though!
(Was over coffees, no alcohol involved!)

So I guess I'm saying take this with a large grain (bag!) of salt... but if it has any truth to it... I told you so!!!

 

[dogwatch]

The chat/rumour in a group of ex-players, some of whom have been assistants or worked in player management, is that Gia and Grant communicate more regularly than you'd expect ex-team mates to do. Especially more recently.

Also possibly a case of 2 + 2 = 17.
Also not sure how any of their group would know how often Gia and Grant actually talk - none are ex-Bulldogs.
Sounded good when my mate who's part of this group told a few of us the 'story' this arvo though!
(Was over coffees, no alcohol involved!)

So I guess I'm saying take this with a large grain (bag!) of salt... but if it has any truth to it... I told you so!!!

If Scrag can get the good oil on Bramble I see no reason why you can't get the mail on something like this.

I'm a believer.

 

[BIG_BONTS]

I think you miss interpreted the stats. There isn’t a success rate of 70% for first time coaches. First time coaches are over represented hence a higher number.

79 first timers who won 24 premierships. 31% success rate

33 coaches with previous appointments won 9. 27% success rate.

Looks like no significant effect to me

 

[Munnez]

I reckon the chaos ball is an underused tactic when a side finds its i50s being picked off regularly by the likes of Taylor, May and Stewart.

For the chaos ball to work requires even numbers ahead of the ball. Opposition is normally +1 with us sending the extra to the contest. As we don't often burst clear of the contest it ends up a dump kick to an outnumber
And that's part of the reason we then get cut up on the transition for a Coast to Coast goal where we don't look like touching the ball.
Agree chaos ball could be a good strategy but would need to alter our structures for it to work.... over to you Bevo

 

[Munnez]

I mean if we don’t do this trade we don’t have Sanders.

We desperately needed a young midfielder and we got a good one by the looks of it.

I’d still do that trade at this point.

And got him with Libba still in great form to learn from. Also to start building AFL level endurance as we know it takes a couple of years to do so too the required level. Trying to put ourselves in a position to snag a flag and to get set before Tassie inevitably compromises the draft for a period of time.