Expansion GC17 and WSYD - no viability

[garygee]

How can the AFL seriously be considering trying to start a new team in both NSW and QLD. Any serious sponsor that was looking at some sort of return on their investment would have to have rocks in their heads to take this seriously. It's going to be a financial disaster.

If you look at the track records of the current AFL teams based in those states this venture has a dismal outlook.

NSW have had their own team since 1982. Due to favorable AFL policy and numerable financial rescues They have managed to be relatively successful taking a premiership in 05. They are only showing a membership of 26,721 of which almost 50% of those are former Victorian Swans fans.
QLD have had their own team 1987 and also due to favorable AFL policy they have also managed to be successful taking premierships in 01, 02 and 03. Despite this recent success they have the lowest membership in the league of 22,737 and again approximately half of those are former Victorian Fitzroy supporters.

If you look at this you have 1 team each for the 1st and 3rd most populous states that have been in existence for 20 or more years, have won premierships and still can only manage memberships of just over 10,000. Compare this to the clubs with the top 3 membership levels and they come from the 4th and 5th and fifth states by population.
In summation, there is no way that the new teams will succeed given the proven lack of support for AFL from NSW and QLD. The NSW and QLD public are just not interested.
The TV rights for games involving GC17 and WSyd will be worth nothing as there will very little interest due to minimal following.
The AFL management have rocks in their heads and are completely going about this expansion in the wrong way. It will end in tears as you wont buy club loyalty.

 

[Beaussie]

How can the AFL seriously be considering trying to start a new team in both NSW and QLD. Any serious sponsor that was looking at some sort of return on their investment would have to have rocks in their heads to take this seriously. It's going to be a financial disaster.

Why do the Hawks play home games in Tasmania and have that state as their major sponsor? Is Hawthorn viable in Victoria?

 

[mediumsizered]

How can the AFL seriously be considering trying to start a new team in both NSW and QLD. Any serious sponsor that was looking at some sort of return on their investment would have to have rocks in their heads to take this seriously. It's going to be a financial disaster.

If you look at the track records of the current AFL teams based in those states this venture has a dismal outlook.

NSW have had their own team since 1982. Due to favorable AFL policy and numerable financial rescues They have managed to be relatively successful taking a premiership in 05. They are only showing a membership of 26,721 of which almost 50% of those are former Victorian Swans fans.
QLD have had their own team 1987 and also due to favorable AFL policy they have also managed to be successful taking premierships in 01, 02 and 03. Despite this recent success they have the lowest membership in the league of 22,737 and again approximately half of those are former Victorian Fitzroy supporters.

If you look at this you have 1 team each for the 1st and 3rd most populous states that have been in existence for 20 or more years, have won premierships and still can only manage memberships of just over 10,000. Compare this to the clubs with the top 3 membership levels and they come from the 4th and 5th and fifth states by population.
In summation, there is no way that the new teams will succeed given the proven lack of support for AFL from NSW and QLD. The NSW and QLD public are just not interested.
The TV rights for games involving GC17 and WSyd will be worth nothing as there will very little interest due to minimal following.
The AFL management have rocks in their heads and are completely going about this expansion in the wrong way. It will end in tears as you wont buy club loyalty.

On what are you basing your claims that both Brisbane & Sydney's memberships are made up of almost 50% of Fitzroy & South Melbourne supporters respectively. I have seen figures that indicate the Victorian based memberships make up nowhere near 50% of total memberships of these 2 clubs. Feel free to post a link which supports your claims.

 

[A Living God]

NSW have had their own team since 1982. Due to favorable AFL policy and numerable financial rescues They have managed to be relatively successful taking a premiership in 05. They are only showing a membership of 26,721 of which almost 50% of those are former Victorian Swans fans.
QLD have had their own team 1987 and also due to favorable AFL policy they have also managed to be successful taking premierships in 01, 02 and 03. Despite this recent success they have the lowest membership in the league of 22,737 and again approximately half of those are former Victorian Fitzroy supporters.

In 2006 Brisbane had the 3rd least member and yet earned the 4th most from membership. If Brisbane lowered the price of membership they would have more members but they have chosen a business model which generates them the highest return. Theirs and Sydney's membership are meaningless when considered in isolation.

 

[garygee]

On what are you basing your claims that both Brisbane & Sydney's memberships are made up of almost 50% of Fitzroy & South Melbourne supporters respectively. I have seen figures that indicate the Victorian based memberships make up nowhere near 50% of total memberships of these 2 clubs. Feel free to post a link which supports your claims.

There a number of sources for this information. The most obvious, although I'm not sure if it's validated, is Wikipedia. I've also made enquiries of the supports of each team and many have confirmed similar figures. If you wish to challenge my figures feel free to query eaither the AFL or the clubs themselves and see what they say.

 

[Mr Eagle]

Any serious sponsor that was looking at some sort of return on their investment would have to have rocks in their heads to take this seriously. It's going to be a financial disaster.

If you look at the track records of the current AFL teams based in those states this venture has a dismal outlook.

QBE has been sponsoring Sydney for what, 20-odd years now? Obviously they think the ROI on their money isn't too shabby.

 

[garygee]

If Brisbane lowered the price of membership they would have more members but they have chosen a business model which generates them the highest return. T

Brisbane mebership are pretty much the same price as everybody else.

 

[A Living God]

There a number of sources for this information. The most obvious, although I'm not sure if it's validated, is Wikipedia. I've also made enquiries of the supports of each team and many have confirmed similar figures. If you wish to challenge my figures feel free to query eaither the AFL or the clubs themselves and see what they say.

From Wikipedia

Due to their merger with Fitzroy, approximately 6,700 of Lions members are based in Melbourne.

6700 out of 22,700 is 30% which is not even remotely close to 50%

Almost 10,000 Swans members are (South) Melbourne based

10,000 out of 26,700 is 37% which again is not close to 50%.

 

[A Living God]

Brisbane mebership are pretty much the same price as everybody else.

Basic Memberships
Brisbane - $265
Hawthorn - $215
Collingwood - $165
Melbourne - $165

 

[Denmark AFL]

what a load of shit

 

[garygee]

Basic Memberships
Brisbane - $265
Hawthorn - $215
Collingwood - $165
Melbourne - $165

Don't know where yougot your figures from. Hawthorn basic 11 game public access is $165.00. Reserved seat is around $220
Couldn't find a Brisbane membership for $165.00. $149 buys 6 Vic games and 5 Gabba games. $235 is Standard Adult reserved seat. Brisbane don't appear to offer a public access ticket. Big deal, it wouldn't make that much difference.

 

[Mister Football]

GaryGee, I'd like to see you respond to the evidence that YOU quoted where the numbers are much less than the 50% you claimed.

To be honest, I think you're talking bullshit.

I live in Brisbane and there is considerable support for AFL and the Lions. There is ALOT of interest in GC17 in the Gold Coast area due to the excitement of the new venture and the population growth in the area.

I think you are being dramatic.

 

[legend166]

There a number of sources for this information. The most obvious, although I'm not sure if it's validated, is Wikipedia. I've also made enquiries of the supports of each team and many have confirmed similar figures. If you wish to challenge my figures feel free to query eaither the AFL or the clubs themselves and see what they say.

You expect him to ring up the AFL and/or the Lions/Swans to confirm your information?

You're the one that made the claim. The burden of proof is on you. Doesn't matter though, since you've already been proven wrong.

Don't know where yougot your figures from. Hawthorn basic 11 game public access is $165.00. Reserved seat is around $220
Couldn't find a Brisbane membership for $165.00. $149 buys 6 Vic games and 5 Gabba games. $235 is Standard Adult reserved seat. Brisbane don't appear to offer a public access ticket. Big deal, it wouldn't make that much difference.

How can you say it makes no difference? Doing some basic math using the numbers A Living God posted:

Let's say Brisbane get 20 000 members at $265. That's 5.3 million dollars in revenue.

Now let's say Melbourne get 30 000 members at $165. That's 4.95 million dollars in revenue.

How is that not a massive difference?

 

[A Living God]

Don't know where yougot your figures from. Hawthorn basic 11 game public access is $165.00. Reserved seat is around $220
Couldn't find a Brisbane membership for $165.00. $149 buys 6 Vic games and 5 Gabba games. $235 is Standard Adult reserved seat. Brisbane don't appear to offer a public access ticket. Big deal, it wouldn't make that much difference.

Page 5 of http://www.lions.com.au/Portals/0/lions_docs/Brisbane_Lions_Membership_Information_Booklet_2008.PDF

Full concession is $235 for the Full adult is $305. The cheapest Adult membership is $255, not $265 which was a typo.

You are right about the Hawthorn membership I was looking at standard seating and not general admission but that only helps my arguement, the basic Brisbane membership cost $100 more than a basic Victorian club membership

 

[Zvim]

Basic Memberships
Brisbane - $265
Hawthorn - $215
Collingwood - $165
Melbourne - $165

You are comparing a reserved seat membership to non-reserved seating memberships.

Brisbane - $255
Hawthorn - $300
Collingwood - $330
Melbourne - $360


Looking at Brisbane's membership breakdown:
17,325 adult x $255 = $4,417,875
2,354 concession x $175 = $411,950
3,148 junior x $100 = $314,800

So that is going to equate to roughly $5.15m, which is a very good return for membership of that number.

Looking to compare to ours is going to be tough this year because we only have an 8 games in Melbourne in exchange of $1.2m from the AFL.

From memory we have:
20.379 adult (of that about 7k I think are reserved)
13,379 normal x $150 = 2,006,850
7,000 reserved x $240 = 1,680,000

3,464 concession x $95 = $329,080
8,757 junior x $80 = $700,560

That comes out to $4,716,490. Add in the 1.2m it comes out to about $6m or if you pro-rate the 8 into 11 it comes out to about $6.5m.

It is basically the match day overhead that is killing us, we need to draw 30k to TD to break even, my guess is the Lions would make great money on a 30k crowd.

I'd like to see the Lions push a non-reserved package and to get the numbers up, unless the stadium is small then I don't think you really need to force reserve only packages and for whatever reason the crowds and membership numbers have a big impact on the psyche of clubs. Ie, Lions are painted as weak or vulnerable because of a low membership when their money numbers are comparable to clubs which don't push reserve only memberships.

 

[A Living God]

You are comparing a reserved seat membership to non-reserved seating memberships.

Brisbane - $255
Hawthorn - $300
Collingwood - $330
Melbourne - $360

Brisbane don't have general admission membership, you have to buy a reserved seating membership. $255 is the the cheapest adult membership you can buy.

 

[Gunnar Longshanks]

How can the AFL seriously be considering trying to start a new team in both NSW and QLD. Any serious sponsor that was looking at some sort of return on their investment would have to have rocks in their heads to take this seriously. It's going to be a financial disaster.

If you look at the track records of the current AFL teams based in those states this venture has a dismal outlook.

NSW have had their own team since 1982. Due to favorable AFL policy and numerable financial rescues They have managed to be relatively successful taking a premiership in 05. They are only showing a membership of 26,721 of which almost 50% of those are former Victorian Swans fans.
QLD have had their own team 1987 and also due to favorable AFL policy they have also managed to be successful taking premierships in 01, 02 and 03. Despite this recent success they have the lowest membership in the league of 22,737 and again approximately half of those are former Victorian Fitzroy supporters.

If you look at this you have 1 team each for the 1st and 3rd most populous states that have been in existence for 20 or more years, have won premierships and still can only manage memberships of just over 10,000. Compare this to the clubs with the top 3 membership levels and they come from the 4th and 5th and fifth states by population.
In summation, there is no way that the new teams will succeed given the proven lack of support for AFL from NSW and QLD. The NSW and QLD public are just not interested.

Was it a mistake to include Brisbane and Sydney?

All the arguments you've made here could have been made about the Bears and the Swans at the time of their inception.

Was it a mistake to include them?

The reality is that a presence in the northern states is a major factor in the wealth that has now flooded the league. Without these sides, $1b TV deals wouldn't happen. But you would have been against the formation of these sides for all the reasons you've listed above.

The TV rights for games involving GC17 and WSyd will be worth nothing as there will very little interest due to minimal following.

You don't understand the ins and outs of the TV rights deal.

 

[garygee]

From Wikipedia 6700 out of 22,700 is 30% which is not even remotely close to 50% 10,000 out of 26,700 is 37% which again is not close to 50%.

I'm not saying that Wikipedia is close. I actually got aproximates from clubmembers. If you want accurate figures ask the clubs. It's not the point. The point is that after 20 years neither NSW with a population of 4 Million or QLD with a population of 1.5 Million have managed to get behind their state teams to the point that this year they are last on the membership list. How are there ever going to be enough people interested in getting behind another team in each state. Not going to happen. It'll be a farce.

 

[A Living God]

I'm not saying that Wikipedia is close. I actually got aproximates from clubmembers. If you want accurate figures ask the clubs. It's not the point. The point is that after 20 years neither NSW with a population of 4 Million or QLD with a population of 1.5 Million have managed to get behind their state teams to the point that this year they are last on the membership list. How are there ever going to be enough people interested in getting behind another team in each state. Not going to happen. It'll be a farce.

Have you just completely missed the last 10 post explaining why the lowish membership isn't that important.

 

[A Living God]

Brisbane and Sydney also earn significantly more from gate receipts. West Coast earn basically nothing from gate receipts as their is only a handfull of general admission seats at each game, all their money comes from Membership. Another example is the Western Bulldogs, they only earn $40,000 per home game at the Tesltra dome. North Melbourne and Melbourne have similar arrangements in the same boat.

 

[legend166]

I'm not saying that Wikipedia is close. I actually got aproximates from clubmembers. If you want accurate figures ask the clubs.

You expect him to ring up the AFL and/or the Lions/Swans to confirm your information?

You're the one that made the claim. The burden of proof is on you. Doesn't matter though, since you've already been proven wrong.

Read.

 

[A Living God]

Does anybody know if either Brisbane or Sydney publish their annual reports online?

 

[garygee]

Was it a mistake to include Brisbane and Sydney?.

Maybe it was, have either club ever stood on it's own without support or concessions from the AFL?

The reality is that a presence in the northern states is a major factor in the wealth that has now flooded the league. Without these sides, $1b TV deals wouldn't happen. But you would have been against the formation of these sides for all the reasons you've listed above.
You don't understand the ins and outs of the TV rights deal.

The rights deal is about the footy states.

Yeah AFL is a priority of 7 and 10 in Sydney

Friday night AFL on 7 at 10:30pm after Benny Hill
Saturday night AFL on 10 at 10:30pm.
Sunday night 11:30 on 7.

Major priority there.

 

[Gunnar Longshanks]

Maybe it was, have either club ever stood on it's own without support or concessions from the AFL?

The existence of these clubs underwrites the wealth that now exists in the game.

If the AFL hadn't expanded north, and subsequently created this wealth, plenty more Victorian sides would have disappeared.

If you think Sydney and Brisbane were mistakes, you're living in a different era.

The rights deal is about the footy states.

Not exclusively.

Yeah AFL is a priority of 7 and 10 in Sydney

Friday night AFL on 7 at 10:30pm after Benny Hill
Saturday night AFL on 10 at 10:30pm.
Sunday night 11:30 on 7.

Major priority there.

The broadcasters want extra sides. That's the bottom line. The AFL doesn't care about ratings. All they care about is how much the broadcasters will pay for the rights.

The broadcasters want more product in the northern states as it gives them two local sides to promote each week. If the broadcasters want it, the AFL wants it as well.

 

[garygee]

How can you say it makes no difference? Doing some basic math using the numbers A Living God posted:
Let's say Brisbane get 20 000 members at $265. That's 5.3 million dollars in revenue.Now let's say Melbourne get 30 000 members at $165. That's 4.95 million dollars in revenue.How is that not a massive difference?

That's if all the memberships at Brisbane are $265 or more. How many of these members have $104 vic memberships? How many have taken up their Vodaphone offer and got the $265 or $104 memberships at half price?
Anyway I'm not specifically focused on the viability or Sydney or Brisbane (although where would they be without their concessions) it's about the viability of a new team for each state which, in my opinion, is ZERO.