Geelong - Too old, too slow?

[FreddyTwoShoes]

Season by season- Geelong on MCG in finals, relative to H&A season

2007- Achieved par. Easily best H&A, dominated GF. But scraped through vs MCG tenant in prelim.

2008- Underachieved. Best team all year. Lost GF to MCG tenant who finished 4 wins behind them.

2009- Very very slight overachievement. Finished 2nd. Won very tight GF against Marvel tenant (1st).

2010- Underachieved. Finished 2nd. Lost tight qualifying final against Marvel tenant (3rd). Lost prelim convincingly vs MCG tenant (1st).

2011- Over achieved. Finished 2nd. Won finals on MCG vs MCG tenants. Dominant finals.

2012- Under achieved. Lost EF to lower ranked interstate team.

2013- about par. Lost very tight prelim to higher ranked opponent. Ironically in that position after losing at KP.

2014- Underachieved. Finished 3rd. Lost comfortably to 2nd. Then lost semi final to lower ranked opponent (Marvel team)

2015 N/A

2016- Underachieved. Won QF vs 3rd. But lost prelim against interstate opponent by 37. Opponent lost GF following week. Geelong missed GF comfortably despite finishing 2nd.

2017- Underachieved. Finished 2nd, got thumped by MCG opponent (3rd). Won convincingly in SF but ended up missing GF again after finishing top 2, and another disappointing showing on the MCG

2018- Slight underachievement. Lost EF by 29 from 8th (13-9) vs 5th.(14-8 MCG tenant)

2019- Underachieved. Minor premiers. Missed GF again after losing to 3rd and 4th (both MCG tenants)

Geelong has underachieved on the G in finals.

Why is a matter for speculation. Maybe their game plan or personell simply aren't suited- or aren't capable- of raising themselves in finals intensity footy.

But I do think the idea that ground shape is completely irrelevant fails the pub test.

Consider other ball sports with moving players- soccer, nfl, rugby, rugby league, basketball. How many of those sports have pitches with vast discrepancy in size like KP vs MCG?

Consider: how the players spread and the angles they employ moving out from stoppages, leading patterns of forwards, moving the ball down the ground, retaining possession effectively at end of game. Defensive zone strategies. All these things will differ according to ground shape

I haven't heard any argument convincing me that a 20% difference in ground width (compared to where they've played most of their home games) would not have an impact on an AFL team.

Thanks for taking the time to dig up that data. It is an interesting take on under/over achievement.

It would be extra interesting to compare that record with other non-premiership teams across the same period. The bit I don’t see acknowledged is PB’s excellent earlier point that every finalist who doesn’t win the flag has failed to some extent. Apologies PB if I’m misinterpreting.

I’ll do it myself when I get a bit of time but if you happen to have that at your fingertips then I’d be grateful.

 

[PhatBoy]

Thanks for taking the time to dig up that data. It is an interesting take on under/over achievement.

It would be extra interesting to compare that record with other non-premiership teams across the same period. The bit I don’t see acknowledged is PB’s excellent earlier point that every finalist who doesn’t win the flag has failed to some extent. Apologies PB if I’m misinterpreting.

I’ll do it myself when I get a bit of time but if you happen to have that at your fingertips then I’d be grateful.

Absolutely, thanks mate. It’s reality: every year two sides from the top four will exit the finals with either a 1/1, 1/2 or 0/2 record.

They can’t ALL be unworthy of making the top four. There will be occasional seasons where a really kind draw or a huge percentage boosting win might see a side flattered by one or two ladder positions but by and large every rung a side climbs up the thing in any given season.


Even if the ground dimensions DID have something to do with our finals record - and I firmly believe they bear no relation - would not any perceived unfair advantage we have be mitigated by the fact that we play less games on that field than anyone else? If that was the case the worst thing you could say about us is that ‘Geelong don’t handle wide grounds well in finals.’

There is no argument left to try to suggest that we make finals due to our home ground

 

[PJays]

Absolutely, thanks mate. It’s reality: every year two sides from the top four will exit the finals with either a 1/1, 1/2 or 0/2 record.

They can’t ALL be unworthy of making the top four.

It's misleading lumping the top 4 in together

In the last 50 seasons:

• The minor premier made the Grand Final 76% of the time (38 seasons)
• 2nd place made the GF 54% of the time
• 3rd place made GF 42% of the time
• 4th made GF 14% of the time

Which is what you would expect- it declines with ladder position

 

[PhatBoy]

It's misleading lumping the top 4 in together

In the last 50 seasons:

• The minor premier made the Grand Final 76% of the time (38 seasons)
• 2nd place made the GF 54% of the time
• 3rd place made GF 42% of the time
• 4th made GF 14% of the time

Which is what you would expect- it declines with ladder position

Absolutely, no doubt there.
Until there is a complete home and away season nothing will EVER be a 100 per cent accurate reflection on the regular season but it’s pretty bloody close basically every year.

Without a doubt there have been seasons in which we haven’t played to our finishing position come finals but it is not a game of odds it is a game of human beings and errors and players playing above or below their average level and the fact that on any given days we have come out and not been able to win in finals doesn’t make a redundancy of every other result throughout the season, it simply provides an example of where our coaching, playing, approach and attitude haven’t been as good as what the opposition produced on that day. Sometimes it will be choking or mistakes, sometimes it will be the other team having a great day.


You could make a very superficial argument that his volume of round four major misses meant Greg Norman simply wasn’t that good a golfer and that he was flattered by his multitude of good 1-2-3 rounds in majors.

The actual fact is, he was every bit as good a golfer as those rounds suggested, but he was mentally fragile and on a few occasions ran into someone red hot when it mattered

 

[PJays]

Without a doubt there have been seasons in which we haven’t played to our finishing position come finals

Well yeah that's an understatement. Geelong since 2012 has been a story of consistent finals underachieving. Finished top 2 on 4 occasions without making a GF, usually losing prelims convincingly. Finished 3rd and out in straight sets.

2020 was the only exception but that was an unusual year. Not a full length season or full length games.

What's your theory then? Mental fragility? Issue with the game plan? Just a well coached team who don't have the talent to step into an extra gear in September?

It could be any (or a combination) of those

I think the fact they have a 80-90% win record at an unusually shaped ground (also main training base), which is an outlier shape in AFL, but don't get to play there in finals, might also have something to do with it

And I know their H&A record at MCG is better than their finals record there. So maybe the issue is more finals than MCG shape. But common sense still tells me it matters. Somewhat.

So what's your theory then?

 

[dazbroncos]

I was 10 bro, I don’t even remember it.

formative childhood years... its etched.. repressed... and etched.. and its flowing now.

Go Catters

 

[PhatBoy]

Well yeah that's an understatement. Geelong since 2012 has been a story of consistent finals underachieving. Finished top 2 on 4 occasions without making a GF, usually losing prelims convincingly. Finished 3rd and out in straight sets.

2020 was the only exception but that was an unusual year. Not a full length season or full length games.

What's your theory then? Mental fragility? Issue with the game plan? Just a well coached team who don't have the talent to step into an extra gear in September?

It could be any (or a combination) of those

I think the fact they have a 80-90% win record at an unusually shaped ground (also main training base), which is an outlier shape in AFL, but don't get to play there in finals, might also have something to do with it

And I know their H&A record at MCG is better than their finals record there. So maybe the issue is more finals than MCG shape. But common sense still tells me it matters. Somewhat.

So what's your theory then?

In five of our defeats we have been absolutely ambushed: Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle, Melbourne and North Melbourne. The ground didn’t have time to be a factor as we were down by 30+ points in all those games within 20 minutes of the opening bounce. None of those sides were using ground width to carve us up, and as we barely touched the ball early in those games, the ground width wasn’t much of a factor in our attack, either.

In two losses to Richmond we dominated for a half. Ground dimensions didn’t seem to be an issue there. They made adjustments to what was happening, Martin got hot, Hawkins wasn’t actually playing in one of those games, and we got overrun.

If you were looking for a pattern that was linked to ground shape a better idea would be trying to find matches where a lot of metrics were reasonably even between the two sides but the opposition managed to play the game on their terms for most of it and hold us at arms length. There haven’t been many of those. Richmond QF.

You’re a smart, considered poster who uses numbers and analysis to draw conclusions.

Before ducking towards such an immeasurable conclusion like ‘ground shape seems to have absolutely no
Impact on 90 per cent of your matches but suddenly in finals it becomes a big issue - but it isn’t an issue for Sydney who have been similarly consistent in making finals and not winning anything and who themselves have a ground with a different size to most other venues so it must just be that in finals the ghosts of the ground shape manifest themselves after lying dormant for the rest of the year’ is beneath you.

Try looking at things like:

- we have clearly not been ‘on’ at the start of 4-5 finals. We have been out-enthused, out hustled and beaten to the ball. I believe that is partly a consequence of being such a process driven side and one who believes in its game plan and trusts it, even when it shouldn’t. I believe we have always had a Plan B, contrary to what others think, but a big problem has been that our Plan A has never been to just go out there and attack the shit out of the ball.

- we have run into some good sides, absolutely no question. During our current finals run there have been two dynasty teams and a Melbourne side who look capable of it, and all those teams have come through us at some stage to get to the premiership. There is no shame or need for an inquest into ground shape because, like basically everyone else in those given years, we lost to the best team.

- we have underperformed in matches where our effort was actually very good. Think about the Port final we lost where Hawkins kicked 0.5 or whatever it was. On a ground shaped like ours, no less.

There are 44 humans playing one another on any given night in finals footy and the level each of them gets to, relative to their peak, is what determines who stays in the comp and who bows out. As long as that human element is there, there is never going to be just one reason why a team might fall short over a sequence of years.
As professional footballers, though, and coaches, I very much doubt one of those factors at any impactful level, is a white line appearing further away than normal.

 

[azyboy]

Well yeah that's an understatement. Geelong since 2012 has been a story of consistent finals underachieving. Finished top 2 on 4 occasions without making a GF, usually losing prelims convincingly. Finished 3rd and out in straight sets.

‘16 and ‘17 were convincing Prelim losses. The other three that we’ve contested since 2012 saw us win one (convincingly), be within a kick at 3/4 time and missing a shot in the final seconds of the other game to draw level.

2020 was the only exception but that was an unusual year. Not a full length season or full length games.

You can’t have it both ways. Our home ground apparently is a massive advantage in us getting to the finals yet in the one season where everything was played away from home, and all sides were equal in this measure (the exception being Brisbane or Gold Coast), we contest a GF, and yet we put that down to some other mitigating factors?

What's your theory then? Mental fragility? Issue with the game plan? Just a well coached team who don't have the talent to step into an extra gear in September?

Hawthorn and Richmond were dynasty teams. Melbourne (this week aside) are on track to go back to back. I agree that 2016 was one that we would rue. We choked in the first quarter against the Swans. The rest of the time we simply weren’t good enough.

Keep in mind we are supposed to have been too old and too slow since 2010. Perhaps ageing bodies had something to do with it?

It could be any (or a combination) of those

I think the fact they have a 80-90% win record at an unusually shaped ground (also main training base), which is an outlier shape in AFL, but don't get to play there in finals, might also have something to do with it

Yet in the most neutral of seasons we performed really strongly at the ground with the closest dimensions to the G (the Gabba)?

Also, worth baring in mind that the one final we played at KP in ‘13 we lost.

And I know their H&A record at MCG is better than their finals record there. So maybe the issue is more finals than MCG shape. But common sense still tells me it matters. Somewhat.

So what's your theory then?

The issue is we haven’t been good enough when it mattered. It shouldn’t (and doesn’t) matter where games are played. We did win finals at the G in 13, 16, 17 and 19. I don’t think it’s a bogey ground for us.

 

[FreddyTwoShoes]

Well yeah that's an understatement. Geelong since 2012 has been a story of consistent finals underachieving. Finished top 2 on 4 occasions without making a GF, usually losing prelims convincingly. Finished 3rd and out in straight sets.

2020 was the only exception but that was an unusual year. Not a full length season or full length games.

What's your theory then? Mental fragility? Issue with the game plan? Just a well coached team who don't have the talent to step into an extra gear in September?

It could be any (or a combination) of those

I think the fact they have a 80-90% win record at an unusually shaped ground (also main training base), which is an outlier shape in AFL, but don't get to play there in finals, might also have something to do with it

And I know their H&A record at MCG is better than their finals record there. So maybe the issue is more finals than MCG shape. But common sense still tells me it matters. Somewhat.

So what's your theory then?

Re: "their H&A record at MCG is better than their finals record there".

I'd expect most team's home and away record at any given ground would be better than their finals record at that ground, due at least in part to the fact they're playing better teams in the finals than in H&A.

H&A games are against teams from all parts of the ladder, while finals are played against only the best 8 teams.

 

[Freomaniac]

And the old farts are still top of the ladder lol

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

It's misleading lumping the top 4 in together

In the last 50 seasons:

• The minor premier made the Grand Final 76% of the time (38 seasons)
• 2nd place made the GF 54% of the time
• 3rd place made GF 42% of the time
• 4th made GF 14% of the time

Which is what you would expect- it declines with ladder position

Using the last 50 seasons is also misleading since the finals systems use to be significantly different. The relevant stats would be top 4 since the finals became 1 v 4, 2 v 3 etc.

 

[dazbroncos]

yup still too old

still too slow...

still on top and winning..

Go Cstters

 

[dazbroncos]

Oh this has aged well

GO Catters!!!!

 

[STPer18]

TOO GOOD

 

[ourgameplandoesntwork]

Aged like milk

 

[Jibroni]

 

[ThePhantom777]

 

[My Tilly]

I happily eat crow for the rest of my life! That was one of the most epic finals displays I ever witnessed.

Put my hand up high for everyone to see, have bagged the shit out of the coach and a batch of players but credit where it is due . . . . amazing performance throughout the season. Those who know me best will attest to my negative nature after the preliminary final loss of 2013 but all is washed away after today's win. Geelong desperately needed this flag. No getting around that. We have been up and about for many years and could have snagged another one earlier. It all fell into place in 2022.
Hawkins was terrific and set up the game early. I been highly critical of him in September but he has now produced in most of his grand finals.

Well done to all at the Geelong football club. They have shut up the doubters and I couldn't be more happier for all of their accomplishments. That is 4 flags in 15 years!

 

[projectv]

Damn they were good today. Best side all year.

Redemption for Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

- he's long been accused of inheriting the side that gave him his first flag. This one is undisputed.

 

[purplearmy]

Geelong needed that one. Finished on top this year, been up there for a number of years before and had fallen short. Not today.

 

[Bradkli]

Congratulations Geelong. Best side all year. Deserved this flag.

Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

take a bow. Coached brilliantly all season. Atkins into the midfield, Blicavs in a range of roles, turning Stengle into arguably the best small forward in the comp…his management all season with the senior players was superb.

Those like myself thinking “the cliff” was coming this year have egg on our faces and rightly so. The cats are going nowhere fast.

Joel Selwood will retire and will be impossible to replace. However, in comes max Holmes who is already a star at such a young age. They will also bring tanner bruhn and potentially ollie Henry. Their list will be better next season than it was this season.

Top 4 next season is a lock. They will be challenging again and probably in 2024 as well.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

So Too old, too slow seems to have been a mantra for a long time now for at least two different clubs. Just maybe, experience really matters in this sport. Just a thought.

 

[Steele13]

Congratulations Geelong. Best side all year. Deserved this flag.

Chris Scott take a bow. Coached brilliantly all season. Atkins into the midfield, Blicavs in a range of roles, turning Stengle into arguably the best small forward in the comp…his management all season with the senior players was superb.

Those like myself thinking “the cliff” was coming this year have egg on our faces and rightly so. The cats are going nowhere fast.

Joel Selwood will retire and will be impossible to replace. However, in comes max Holmes who is already a star at such a young age. They will also bring tanner bruhn and potentially ollie Henry. Their list will be better next season than it was this season.

Top 4 next season is a lock. They will be challenging again and probably in 2024 as well.

Well said. I'll admit I thought they were finished after the prelim last year. The same as I thought they were finished after the prelim in 2010. Just a really good club obviously.

 

[Bradkli]

Well said. I'll admit I thought they were finished after the prelim last year. The same as I thought they were finished after the prelim in 2010. Just a really good club obviously.

4 flags…12 prelims in the last 16 years. An incredible club with an amazing “winning” culture.

A bad season for the cats would be finishing 8th-10th.

 

[Gavin Excell]

So Too old, too slow seems to have been a mantra for a long time now for at least two different clubs. Just maybe, experience really matters in this sport. Just a thought.

Wondered that too
With all.the focus on youth are you better off fielding a more mature team?