Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

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Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader
 
FishGutz said:
You do realise you’re contradicting yourself?

Mental health and a missed preseason for Oliver = drop in value.
ACL and doing something dumb for Smith = drop in value.

Spending time in ICU, falling out with his club, which you could spin as attitude problems, looking like he’s nowhere near ready to start training properly and will miss a preseason as an almost 30 year old who came into the league having issues of getting his body right. Always had weight issues in his early years not to mention has an ACL on his record as well = “well above what we could offer”, because “it’s all about where they are right now.”

It’s funny the spin we can put on things. Petracca is a physical mess at the moment. And mentally he’s obviously traumatised by the whole event, too. His trust in his club his gone, trust in his body maybe gone. Who knows if he will be the same player after the severity of these injuries? I have no issue with speculation and cynicism, it just should be balanced.


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Are you seriously arguing that Petracca is as big a risk as Oliver and (to a lesser degree) Smith?
 
geelong_crazy26 said:
Things can change quickly with player improvements.

We have a very young group of midfielders.

What if max holmes takes the leap next year and becomes a bonafide A grade elite midfielder?? What if Clark becomes a 20 touch a game contested midfielder ?? What if knevitt does the same??

What if bruhn goes to the next level and becomes a A grade contested bull??

A lot of potential improvements, and when you think about it, the losses of the older blokes have already probably occurred this season.

Duncan is already fallen off a cliff, dangerfield can only play a good quarter of footy a game then fades, he is a 15-20 touch impact player on and off.

Blicavs is struggling, and tuohy is only playing half the games and is already being phased out and replaced by Humphries.

Stewart has declined a bit already but will probably still be a good player for a couple more years chugging along.

With smith in the team in 25 and the scope for a huge portion of our team to improve given how young they are, I see a lot of excitement.
Click to expand...
Agree with most of your points there. Hard for anyone for argue if they take an objective view.

  • Blicavs has had a very average year. Getting to the point now where I think he settles in defence and provides the occasional chop out on ball or in the ruck
  • Duncan has reached the end very quickly. Perhaps more quickly than some in here choose to acknowledge. For anyone at that game live on the weekend he came on and his lack of leg speed and getting to secondary contests was sad to watch.

I'm worried about Knevitt and have made that point a few times recently. If people take off the rose colored glasses and honestly assess where he's at - I'm not sure he'll make it. At the other end of the scale you've got people like Humphries and Mannagh who have come in and had an impact. I get the different age profile but Knevitt doesn't appear to be a kid with a hard competitive edge - and a strong will for the contest. Looks very timid and happy to hang back. Not what we need.
 

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Just got an email, Zac Guthrie who was already signed until next year extended for a further three until 2028. Jack Henry a five year deal until end of 2029.
 
Bald said:
I normally wouldn't bounce into another teams trade board, but I have been informed that Bailey Smith did a medical at the Suns over the last week. I would take it with a grain of salt, I have no intentions to troll what so ever, and find it a little tricky to believe myself, but given he's very clearly linked to you guys, I thought I'd drop it in.
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You're getting more than a few people's hopes up with this one. Grain of salt stuff though because I don't see how they would have the cap given the contracts they need to be writing
 
CatToTheFuture said:
You're getting more than a few people's hopes up with this one. Grain of salt stuff though because I don't see how they would have the cap given the contracts they need to be writing
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You do realise it's the Gold Coast right? The AFL will turn a blind eye, or even worse support it themselves.

This isn't like the Cats land deals or the Carlton stock market connections where it's all rumours and innuendo.

The expansion clubs can do as they wish, I've seen it myself, the Coniglio deal is the prime example paying half his contract as an 'ambassador' outside the cap.

Getting the AFL's marquee male sex symbol on the Gold Coast after already getting them Dimma to coach is the league's wet dream.

At best they finally win something, at worst they might finally get some proper attention up there, even if it's for superficial reasons.

Would be very surprised if they don't allow a few loopholes, or worse actually provide them.

As for just the rumour, Smith was on the Gold Coast this weekend. Posted it himself.

Whether he got a medicle or not...who knows...but the story checks out that he was at least there.
 
Hinkley29 said:
Are you seriously arguing that Petracca is as big a risk as Oliver and (to a lesser degree) Smith?
Click to expand...

Do you even read posts or just let emotion blur your judgement? OP stated on it being about where they are right now. Right now, Petracca probably still can’t fart without feeling pain. His body is a mess. So is his mind. He has endured what he himself said was the hardest part of his life. His health issues aren’t over yet. The spleen is a serious thing to have injured. He’s going to have to do a lot of work to get back to match fitness and it’s debatable whether he will ever reach his peak again, especially with age being against him. Yet. nobody is questioning his value because he hasn’t had any “bad boy” stuff ups off field.

Hence why I brought up the fact when he came into the league he did an ACL, then had a toe injury from playing basketball. He copped a lot of flack over that incident. Eventually he dropped at least 5kg of body fat and got fit but for the first three or four years, he himself was maligned.

It’s clear what I’m saying. You can’t hyper-fixate on the issues of some players while glossing over the issues of others. Again, Petracca went through as bad as bad of an incident as you can on the footy field and is still recovering. Nobody actually knows how he will bounce back from this and how it will affect his future.


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Kobe Gryant said:
You do realise it's the Gold Coast right? The AFL will turn a blind eye, or even worse support it themselves.

This isn't like the Cats land deals or the Carlton stock market connections where it's all rumours and innuendo.

The expansion clubs can do as they wish, I've seen it myself, the Coniglio deal is the prime example paying half his contract as an 'ambassador' outside the cap.

Getting the AFL's marquee male sex symbol on the Gold Coast after already getting them Dimma to coach is the league's wet dream.

At best they finally win something, at worst they might finally get some proper attention up there, even if it's for superficial reasons.

Would be very surprised if they don't allow a few loopholes, or worse actually provide them.

As for just the rumour, Smith was on the Gold Coast this weekend. Posted it himself.

Whether he got a medicle or not...who knows...but the story checks out that he was at least there.
Click to expand...
Yeah I guess it's possible. We'll see then.

If we don't land him it cooks our trade period though because who else we getting? Our pick will be too late for any kid I've actually wanted in this draft from what I've seen.
 
My Tilly said:
Ridiculous to sign Oliver up to such an extremely long contract. He was not a generational talent.
Has Geelong ever given a player a 7 year contract? I mean 5 years max.
Click to expand...
Out of interest, how many players out there have won AFLCA player of the year twice?

Understand things have changed, but he was absolutely incredible in '21 and' 22.
 
CatToTheFuture said:
Yeah I guess it's possible. We'll see then.

If we don't land him it cooks our trade period though because who else we getting? Our pick will be too late for any kid I've actually wanted in this draft from what I've seen.
Click to expand...
Eh whatever.

Disappointing, but hardly terminal. Cliche I know, but clubs bigger than one person - particularly one who wasn't even here yet.

Wish Bailey all the best if it's true that's where he's leaning, we'll figure something out.

As for the draft, I'd disagree. We were never going to get Ashcroft, Smillie, FOS, or Langford regardless.

After that it's even until about 30, and not in a 'the top are good and the the rest are all spuds' way like last year's draft was reported on, it's just really even.
 
Win lose or draw it would be au revoir to the following in 2025 for mine-

Stanley, Hawkins, Tuohy, Duncan, Rohan, Murdoch, Jeka, Hardie, Parfitt, Willis & Bews - too old, limited, hot and cold or far back in the queue.

Trained up for Round 1 -
Mullin Henry Zuthrie
Stewart Blicavs Humphries
Holmes Smith Dempsey
SDK Bruhn Clark
Mannagh Cameron Close
Miers Neale Stengle

Henry Bowes Atkins Cuthrie

Danger the first specialist sub/special comments man.

In the wings - Atkins Kolo MOC
Hopefully knocking the door down - Conway COS
Still hold hope for Knevitt, Clohesy
 

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FishGutz said:
Do you even read posts or just let emotion blur your judgement? OP stated on it being about where they are right now. Right now, Petracca probably still can’t fart without feeling pain. His body is a mess. So is his mind. He has endured what he himself said was the hardest part of his life. His health issues aren’t over yet. The spleen is a serious thing to have injured. He’s going to have to do a lot of work to get back to match fitness and it’s debatable whether he will ever reach his peak again, especially with age being against him. Yet. nobody is questioning his value because he hasn’t had any “bad boy” stuff ups off field.

Hence why I brought up the fact when he came into the league he did an ACL, then had a toe injury from playing basketball. He copped a lot of flack over that incident. Eventually he dropped at least 5kg of body fat and got fit but for the first three or four years, he himself was maligned.

It’s clear what I’m saying. You can’t hyper-fixate on the issues of some players while glossing over the issues of others. Again, Petracca went through as bad as bad of an incident as you can on the footy field and is still recovering. Nobody actually knows how he will bounce back from this and how it will affect his future.


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Click to expand...
Firstly, if you think mine was an emotional response you clearly haven’t dealt with many emotional people.

I completely agree that you need to take into consideration current circumstances when assessing the risk in a player. We do not have all info about players situation, but Here is what we know about the current circumstances of Oliver and Petracca:
  • Oliver is way out of shape, has had 2 very poor seasons on field and has clear issues off the field. I will refrain from commenting on the extent of how bad his off-field behaviour has been (I don’t wish to comment on unconfirmed innuendo), but let’s just say that there is so much smoke around Oliver that we could be looking at a forest fire. There is no evidence to suggest that he has turned any of these issues around.
  • Petracca has had a traumatic on field incident that was handled very poorly by his club. He is rightly pissed off about this and has aired his grievances with his club. He is also a model citizen for his club, is somewhat of a spokesperson for his playing group, has been in elite physical condition for as many years as anyone would care to remember and has been an elite player as recently as this season. The only question about him is if the injury he suffered this year will affect his future performance. But all indications are that his professionalism will give him a very high likelihood of getting back to elite level.

If you think that the risk level associated with these two players is comparable then more power to you. You are entitled to that opinion, but I just hope that you aren’t making decisions for the club that I support.

Without going into details, risk management and pricing of risk is something that I have to do every day. You gather as much information as possible, do your research and then apply logic to make a decision on whether to accept the risk or not. You nearly always have to make this decision on incomplete set of data. Often, the decision comes down to the following questions:
- if you accept the risk and then it all goes pear shaped, could you live with your decision or would you want to punch yourself in the face for being such a moron? Could you justify the decision in hindsight even if the deal goes badly because the decision making process was sound?

If we took a risk on Petracca based on the info to hand, I could live with that decision if it didn’t work out great.

If we took a risk on Oliver based on the info to hand and it turned out badly, the hindsight review would firmly be in “punch yourself in the face” territory.

I will refrain to give my view on smith because that topic has been done to death.
 
My Tilly said:
Sorry but he was never Petracca and he was never Gawn. An absolute gun midfielder but rarely a goal scorer and hardly the best disposal user either.
Same class as a Lachie Neale for me.

Now a player like Harley Reid, explosive, dynamic and capable of playing multiple positions, you look at building a team around such predigous talent like that.
Has the off field charisma as well.

Melbourne are in for a world of hurt with this nightmare scenario.
Can't say I feel sorry for them.
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I don’t think there is any argument that Oliver WAS an elite player. If you were giving me that player then sign me up.

But he seems so far removed from being that player that it is farcical to suggest that he will ever get back there.

Those past glories are worth very very little given what details we have about his current situation.
 
Kobe Gryant said:
Absolutely, but I do fear for this board even with that being the case.

We'll be young, quick, and exciting next year, and for years to come.

It's clear that's where Scott is building this young core group towards, particularly with his focus on transition rather than the typical contest & defence (Hi Simon) of a bygone era.

We've seen it this year at times already, and it's only going to be exasperated more next year with more youth and retirements on the way.

Problem is though, with that youth comes inconsistency. We've seen that this year already too.

Harlem Globetrotters one week, insipid the next. It's even happening from quarter to quarter.

Personally, I'm fine with it, and embrace the challenge and the adjustment of expectations that come with a younger group as a supporter.

Without naming names though, there's a few who won't, and will be very quick to label players "spuds" or the results "unacceptable" when we'll just be dealing with the teething issues that come with a younger side.

TLDR: Not everyone is going to be on board, and it won't take long for people to jump off or question the direction, the players, or the coach if things don't all click immediately.
Click to expand...

Take away the young part, the 22 we field is going to say old for the foreseeable future, we're stuck with transition football until we plug some holes in our 22,. A cost we probably can't afford without a free lunch or two

We'd need a

KPF who can dominate a 1 on 1 contest or be a pack marker
A stoppage focused Ruckman
An inside mid with explosiveness
 
supahoops said:
Win lose or draw it would be au revoir to the following in 2025 for mine-

Stanley, Hawkins, Tuohy, Duncan, Rohan, Murdoch, Jeka, Hardie, Parfitt, Willis & Bews - too old, limited, hot and cold or far back in the queue.

Trained up for Round 1 -
Mullin Henry Zuthrie
Stewart Blicavs Humphries
Holmes Smith Dempsey
SDK Bruhn Clark
Mannagh Cameron Close
Miers Neale Stengle

Henry Bowes Atkins Cuthrie

Danger the first specialist sub/special comments man.

In the wings - Atkins Kolo MOC
Hopefully knocking the door down - Conway COS
Still hold hope for Knevitt, Clohesy
Click to expand...
11 out the door.

Who are the 11 you're replacing them with? Our squad depth looks terrible with the changes you made. At best we'll get two from FA/trades, so then you're looking at 9 from the draft. So splitting 4 picks into 9 or something? Which becomes less if we have to use pick(s) for Smith etc.

7 is palatable. 11 or more is extreme.
 
Lana said:
Take away the young part, the 22 we field is going to say old for the foreseeable future, we're stuck with transition football until we plug some holes in our 22,. A cost we probably can't afford without a free lunch or two

We'd need a

KPF who can dominate a 1 on 1 contest or be a pack marker
A stoppage focused Ruckman
An inside mid with explosiveness
Click to expand...
Young by proxy.

Of course we're going to have some old players still in the side...but it's a completely different scenario to what we've seen in years gone by.

For instance:

Team one has an average age of 27, but they're heavily reliant on their older players, which has been the Geelong story for over a decade.

Team two also has a high average age, but their older players for the most part aren't playing key roles in the side.

We've seen that this year alone. It's why averages are skewed and often inaccurate to what's truly going on.

PFD (who's missed games) Cameron, & Stewart have absolutely been integral in most of our quality football this year. No arguments there.

Everyone else who's considered 'old' is pretty hard to make a case for. A game here, a quarter there...but they haven't been the drivers.

Next year that will only garner move truth as the transition hopefully continues.

I'm much more worried about who's performing, rather than the average age on paper. Most supporters should be.

An example of the opposite last year would be Adelaide. A young side on paper, but the quality of their football was almost solely attributed to their older players. Nobody wants that.

Of course though, we could just become West Coast, which you predicted last year, which were the exact kind of comments I was getting at in the OP.
 
Kobe Gryant said:
Eh whatever.

Disappointing, but hardly terminal. Cliche I know, but clubs bigger than one person - particularly one who wasn't even here yet.

Wish Bailey all the best if it's true that's where he's leaning, we'll figure something out.

As for the draft, I'd disagree. We were never going to get Ashcroft, Smillie, FOS, or Langford regardless.

After that it's even until about 30, and not in a 'the top are good and the the rest are all spuds' way like last year's draft was reported on, it's just really even.
Click to expand...
Yeah I guess I'm just saying I don't see a player that makes us better short term in 15-30 range. Bo Allen the only real shot to drift maybe
 
Last edited:
supahoops said:
Win lose or draw it would be au revoir to the following in 2025 for mine-

Stanley, Hawkins, Tuohy, Duncan, Rohan, Murdoch, Jeka, Hardie, Parfitt, Willis & Bews - too old, limited, hot and cold or far back in the queue.

Trained up for Round 1 -
Mullin Henry Zuthrie
Stewart Blicavs Humphries
Holmes Smith Dempsey
SDK Bruhn Clark
Mannagh Cameron Close
Miers Neale Stengle

Henry Bowes Atkins Cuthrie

Danger the first specialist sub/special comments man.

In the wings - Atkins Kolo MOC
Hopefully knocking the door down - Conway COS
Still hold hope for Knevitt, Clohesy
Click to expand...
There's enough names going out I would offer contracts to Duncan, Willis, Bews and Jeka from your delistings.

Otherwise you're just adding a bunch of last pick in the draft types Who are almost certainly adding less than the those guys.
 

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