Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[Footy Smarts]

I still hold that ground, wasn't a one and done prediction. Can be avoided, Mackie and Wells have to pull something out of their butt. Round 1 next year who is our number 1 ruck? Who is our best inside midfielder? If the answer to both is currently on our list I don't think we'll have a fun year. I certainly wouldn't be trading our future 1st.

I think people around here missed just how good SDK looked in the ruck once he settled there. He'll turn 24 before the start of next season. I reckon he's ready to be freed from the constraints of the backline and explode as a mobile ruck. Fingers crossed he really announces himself there this finals series.

 

[moond0g]

Trac is an elite player who is not 10kg overweight. Big dofference

I think we're arguing different things. I was talking about their original contract signings in 2021/22, not our hypothetical pursuit of either of them this year.

You have to make these contract decisions trying to maximise expected value, and as a 24yo AFLCA MVPA you would say Oliver was a better bet than most players getting a 5+ year deal. But a low probability doesn't mean no probability, so you're not going to get them all right in hindsight.

 

[FootyLad0]

So here’s what we know from the past week…

• A Bulldogs ITK passed on info from a player manager that Baz wants the Cats and Dogs will ask for two firsts (totally within their rights to do so)
• Cal Twomey on Gettable said Baz is most likely coming to Geelong
• Another Bulldogs ITK said Baz met with Dimma for coffee on the GC and did a medical up there two weeks ago
• Sam Edmund on radio said that Baz has put in an offer for a house on the Surf Coast
• On The Couch lads said Pick 15 from Cats for Baz “was about right” (it won’t be enough LOL)
• A Hawks ITK was positive that while Barrass and Battle are their targets, they haven’t given up on Smith
• Jon Ralph again confirming tonight he is certain as are list managers (including the Bulldogs) and player agents around the League that Bailey is coming to Geelong

It’s silly season folks. Get your tinfoil hats out now! Kobe Gryant and Pure_Ownage get in here and get your tinfoil hats on!
Also got my Countdown Clock still going for over two months now!

 

[FishGutz]

I think we're arguing different things. I was talking about their original contract signings in 2021/22, not our hypothetical pursuit of either of them this year.

You have to make these contract decisions trying to maximise expected value, and as a 24yo AFLCA MVPA you would say Oliver was a better bet than most players getting a 5+ year deal. But a low probability doesn't mean no probability, so you're not going to get them all right in hindsight.

I agree with what you’re saying. You can’t retroactively curse one long term contract and praise another. That’s being results orientated. You’re either against long contracts or for them. Because regardless of the probability of success or issues with the individual long contract, the probability of issues increase with every year added. When they signed their respective contracts, Oliver was performing better on field and for all we know doing just as good off field. That’s why Geelong’s blanket rule of five year contracts is so intelligent. Reduces the risk regardless of how safe any individual may seem in real time because retrospection and hindsight counts for nothing once a contract is signed. Unless they do something deplorable enough to break the contract…


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[FishGutz]

I don't think he was average I think the issue was he needs to be a full time mid and Demons had him mid/fwd to cover.
From Rd 1 to Rd 10 he will do well in the Brownlow, was poor in the loss to the Lions, but was massive in quite a few games where him or Viney sparked them.

Dude is a mentality monster, he will come back fit and if he leaves Melbourne and goes to a team that doesn't need him forward (like us) he will be top 5 mids in the comp again. Hell, he would have been close to that for the first 10 games of the year.

The difference for Petracca and other mids is when he starts to slow down he can go forward and hit the scoreboard.

Everybody said the same thing about Dusty and he completely fell off a cliff at 29/30. Lost his incredible durability and burst of speed and was pulled straight back to the pack. 30 years old hits every player differently, especially hits those who rely on power and that burst. And yeah he can move forward but after giving up 2x top 10 picks that’s being spoken about, is that the output you want for someone chewing up such a huge % of your cap? A general forward in his 30s.


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[Hinkley29]

Yep. So Petracca still a risk. His form was average across the season leading up to his injury as well. Genuinely felt like he was slowing down tbh. On a massive contract until he’s 33 as well. That contract could look pretty gross in 2029. This is my point.


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Ok, I guess.

But answer this - which player (petracca or oliver) would you bet on to provide value over the rest of their contract?

I think you know who I am backing.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I'd take Trac over Smith, so if he wants to come to the Cats, I'd be allocating the trade capital earmarked for Smith to get that deal done, though that would likely not be enough and I doubt he wants to come here.

Trac is not being traded its poor journalism.

 

[Lana]

Trac is not being traded its poor journalism.

They got their clicks and we’re talking about it. That’s all they care about

 

[Jumping Jack]

Trac is not being traded its poor journalism.

Just a media pile on with Melbourne and the industry is desperate for things to blow up. And there's not too many letting the truth get in the way of a good story. Not a chance in hell that Petracca leaves and I think it's highly unlikely that they let Oliver go either. They've already lost Brayshaw off their list, and that will soon extend to Neale Bullen, Ben Brown and Joel Smith.

I think we're best just to focus our attention on where we get the best outcome, and it won't be picking the meat off the Melbourne carcass.

 

[calder_daddy]

Yes and Josh Caddy bought a house in Geelong and 3 weeks later he was at Punt Rd

Devon Smith got his property in Geelong and chose Essendon.
He now lives down there I believe but didn’t move in until after he left the AFL

 

[Jumping Jack]

Devon Smith got his property in Geelong and chose Essendon.
He now lives down there I believe but didn’t move in until after he left the AFL

I think Devon Smith bought in Lara didn't he - and ended up playing / coaching there. Not far from Melbourne, but not exactly Geelong central.

 

[FootyLad0]

I think Devon Smith bought in Lara didn't he - and ended up playing / coaching there. Not far from Melbourne, but not exactly Geelong central.

Thoughts on Baz going for Bellbrae property?

Think it's an investment or is it a live in situation?
I mean Australia promotes investment property ownership for wealthy but it seems a long way away from the Big City Party lifestyle everyone says Baz wants.

Not to mention he and the Austin family (Cotton On) are very very close to him, somewhat mentoring him.
The same people who are currently working closely with Shannon Neale.

 

[FishGutz]

Ok, I guess.

But answer this - which player (petracca or oliver) would you bet on to provide value over the rest of their contract?

I think you know who I am backing.

Honestly, I would need to know more details about Oliver’s mental state. Was it a bad period he has moved on from? Is the environment he’s in bad etc. hard to make a judgement call with so little knowledge about the real him. Petracca might be a diva for all we know but really media savvy. You can flip the coin and say, Petracca is a grown man and decided to run back out on the field and now him and his family is pointing fingers at the football club because they let him make a decision to head back out on the field and are now choosing to hold the whole Melbourne Football Club accountable, like they sent him out there at gunpoint.

As I’ve said, there’s so many ways to dissect it. Nothing is black and white. They are both restless. They’ve both caused contempt and disruption within the playing group. They’re both unfit. I think it’s closer than you think. And it brings back my point, they both have contracts which look bad now.

Again, it comes back to… would I want Petracca for 2x top 10 picks. Or Oliver for a single first round pick with the potential of some of his contract being paid. I take the latter.

My profession is playing poker, so this is the +EV move for mine. Both probably never reach their absolute peak again but given age, Oliver might have a higher ceiling now and the cost balances the risk. Especially if some of the contract is paid.

Pick 12-18 is a gamble, so might as well take a gamble on a guy who was arguably the best footballer in the country at his best. Where 2x top 10 picks, you hope they set your club up for a decade - Rozee and Butters as an example. Is a near 30 year old with a smashed up spleen and mental trauma worth that? I don’t think so.


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[Jumping Jack]

Thoughts on Baz going for Bellbrae property?

Think it's an investment or is it a live in situation?
I mean Australia promotes investment property ownership for wealthy but it seems a long way away from the Big City Party lifestyle everyone says Baz wants.

Not to mention he and the Austin family (Cotton On) are very very close to him, somewhat mentoring him.
The same people who are currently working closely with Shannon Neale.

I mentioned in an earlier post that the property in question, and others he's closely looked at, are not exactly "investment" type properties. FWIW the one he's attempting to purchase is fairly and squarely a lifestyle type purchase to live in. Not the sort of place you'd target to rent out to someone else.

I'll leave it you to do your own research so I don't stray into dangerous territory, but have a look at the map and see where Bellbrae is - then have a look at the next adjacent area towards Geelong which is Freshwater Creek. The latter is a place that J Cameron calls home and also happens to be a place that some members of the Austin family call home. I'm not saying that automatically joins all the dots the way we want to, but I think it starts to move a few of those dots into closer proximity. There's no one I'm aware of from around there that would be on an AFL list and commute through to Melbourne to train or play. Charlie Curnow spends a fair bit of time at Bellbrae on the family property but does not live there all week.

 

[calder_daddy]

I think Devon Smith bought in Lara didn't he - and ended up playing / coaching there. Not far from Melbourne, but not exactly Geelong central.

Pretty sure without being 100% certain he bought in Geelong West
He is from Lara, not sure if he lives in Lara now of the property in Geelong west

 

[Jumping Jack]

Pretty sure without being 100% certain he bought in Geelong West
He is from Lara, not sure if he lives in Lara now of the property in Geelong west

I'm not sure either. Always struck me as a flog so never really took too much time out to think about him. But I suspect he doesn't think about me too much either

 

[MisterMarcus]

I think Devon Smith bought in Lara didn't he - and ended up playing / coaching there. Not far from Melbourne, but not exactly Geelong central.

If you're on an AFL footballer's salary and want to invest in property around Geelong, dafuq would you pick friggin Lara of all places?

 

[Hinkley29]

Honestly, I would need to know more details about Oliver’s mental state. Was it a bad period he has moved on from? Is the environment he’s in bad etc. hard to make a judgement call with so little knowledge about the real him. Petracca might be a diva for all we know but really media savvy. You can flip the coin and say, Petracca is a grown man and decided to run back out on the field and now him and his family is pointing fingers at the football club because they let him make a decision to head back out on the field and are now choosing to hold the whole Melbourne Football Club accountable, like they sent him out there at gunpoint.

As I’ve said, there’s so many ways to dissect it. Nothing is black and white. They are both restless. They’ve both caused contempt and disruption within the playing group. They’re both unfit. I think it’s closer than you think. And it brings back my point, they both have contracts which look bad now.

Again, it comes back to… would I want Petracca for 2x top 10 picks. Or Oliver for a single first round pick with the potential of some of his contract being paid. I take the latter.

My profession is playing poker, so this is the +EV move for mine. Both probably never reach their absolute peak again but given age, Oliver might have a higher ceiling now and the cost balances the risk. Especially if some of the contract is paid.

Pick 12-18 is a gamble, so might as well take a gamble on a guy who was arguably the best footballer in the country at his best. Where 2x top 10 picks, you hope they set your club up for a decade - Rozee and Butters as an example. Is a near 30 year old with a smashed up spleen and mental trauma worth that? I don’t think so.


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You didn’t answer my question.

Which one of Oliver or Petracca is more likely to provide value over the rest of their contract?

Or put it another way:

If Melbourne were given the ability to walk away from one of those contracts but they had to keep the other player through the remainder of the contract, which player would they keep and which player would they walk away from?

IMO the answer is pretty obvious.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'm not sure either. Always struck me as a flog so never really took too much time out to think about him. But I suspect he doesn't think about me too much either

This is awkward as I know Devon and he's always mentioned that you're a good bloke.

 

[Jumping Jack]

This is awkward as I know Devon and he's always mentioned that you're a good bloke.

Clearly he's a very poor judge of character.

 

[FishGutz]

You didn’t answer my question.

Which one of Oliver or Petracca is more likely to provide value over the rest of their contract?

Or put it another way:

If Melbourne were given the ability to walk away from one of those contracts but they had to keep the other player through the remainder of the contract, which player would they keep and which player would they walk away from?

IMO the answer is pretty obvious.

Well, Petracca wants to leave and most clubs have the mantra that if a player wants out, things are too far gone between player and club and a trade should be accommodated. I think you’re underestimating how bad the situation between Petracca and Melbourne really is.


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[Hinkley29]

Well, Petracca wants to leave and most clubs have the mantra that if a player wants out, things are too far gone between player and club and a trade should be accommodated. I think you’re underestimating how bad the situation between Petracca and Melbourne really is.


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Maybe.

But I think you are underestimating how disastrous the last 2 seasons have been for Oliver. He is toxic right now.

Plus, Oliver’s issues are largely of his own making. How can you have any confidence in that turning around?

Petracca’s issues are almost exclusively due to an injury and his club’s ineptitude. All indications are that he will do everything possible to get himself right. He is a risk worth taking.

Oliver’s recent behaviour gives me absolutely no confidence that he will aid in his own rehabilitation. His very high probability of default makes him a risk to avoid - he is a 10c speculative stock.

This is not poker and EV is a binary way to look at a non-binary situation. Let’s say that Geelong acquired Oliver for an acceptable contract and a first round pick. The range of outcomes would be anything from:

• Oliver gets back to elite player form and lives happily ever after (very unlikely)
• Oliver is somewhat rehabilitated, gets back to above average midfield form but you are always waiting for the next **** up (most likely scenario)
• he never gets his body right and the contract and draft pick is wasted (somewhat likely)
• he never gets his body right, is a complete **** up off the field and has a destabilising effect on our culture as well as wasting the contract and draft pick (unlikely but more likely than the extreme upside version).

There is acknowledged upside (very unlikely, but a non-zero chance) but there is also a scenario where he is not just no value, but has a badly negative impact on our club. His range of outcomes is highly negative impact to highly positive impact.

Petracca does not have the risk of being a negative impact on our culture and of the club having to babysit him and be associated with any off field screw ups. His range of outcomes is zero impact to highly positive impact. He doesnt have anywhere near the downside risk that Oliver does.

 

[My Tilly]

Maybe.

But I think you are underestimating how disastrous the last 2 seasons have been for Oliver. He is toxic right now.

Plus, Oliver’s issues are largely of his own making. How can you have any confidence in that turning around?

Petracca’s issues are almost exclusively due to an injury and his club’s ineptitude. All indications are that he will do everything possible to get himself right. He is a risk worth taking.

Oliver’s recent behaviour gives me absolutely no confidence that he will aid in his own rehabilitation. His very high probability of default makes him a risk to avoid - he is a 10c speculative stock.

This is not poker and EV is a binary way to look at a non-binary situation. Let’s say that Geelong acquired Oliver for an acceptable contract and a first round pick. The range of outcomes would be anything from:

• Oliver gets back to elite player form and lives happily ever after (very unlikely)
• Oliver is somewhat rehabilitated, gets back to above average midfield form but you are always waiting for the next **** up (most likely scenario)
• he never gets his body right and the contract and draft pick is wasted (somewhat likely)
• he never gets his body right, is a complete **** up off the field and has a destabilising effect on our culture as well as wasting the contract and draft pick (unlikely but more likely than the extreme upside version).

There is acknowledged upside (very unlikely, but a non-zero chance) but there is also a scenario where he is not just no value, but has a badly negative impact on our club. His range of outcomes is highly negative impact to highly positive impact.

Petracca does not have the risk of being a negative impact on our culture and of the club having to babysit him and be associated with any off field screw ups. His range of outcomes is zero impact to highly positive impact. He doesnt have anywhere near the downside risk that Oliver does.

This isn't the first time Petracca has had issues.
Didn't he have crack in the leg and played through it a few years ago?

I recall talk around at the time as it could have effected his long term career by taking the risk.

 

[supahoops]

And I'd say 6 or 7 newbies is enough to cover those options.

It's very rare for a side to bring in 11 or 12 new players unless a handful were already established at other clubs.

Removing 7 players, which includes 4 or 5 veterans, is already effectively gutting the list. Adding a few more is just going into overkill for the sake of it.

I’d counter that keeping players on your list who are next to zero chance of playing senior games is overkill when we have enough options to fill the breach. The only benefit would be to bolster our VFL side.

 

[Mr Meow]

I’d counter that keeping players on your list who are next to zero chance of playing senior games is overkill when we have enough options to fill the breach. The only benefit would be to bolster our VFL side.

So from your list of players you're confident we'd get almost no games out of:

-Duncan, Rohan, Jeka, Willis

One or two injuries to the positions they'd be viable for and I could easily see them slotting in.

Geelong consistently keeps a handful of players for this purpose. Some may play 3 games while some end up playing 15-20.

But I'm not going to pick at your more extreme gutting proposal any further. I just believe a slightly more moderate version is both a) the best idea and b) the practice that will be implemented.