Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

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Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader
 
Just to add my 2c...

It depends on where you are on the ladder. If you're down near the bottom anyway and can get some good top-20 draft picks in to cover the loss of veteran players who retire or are delisted or have good picks to trade for players, then I think Hawthorn has shown it's doable.

However, if you're still in the top half of the ladder, then I think the approach of staggering retirements over several seasons works better because getting replacements, either through trading or drafting, is more difficult.
 
supahoops said:
I’d counter that keeping players on your list who are next to zero chance of playing senior games is overkill when we have enough options to fill the breach. The only benefit would be to bolster our VFL side.
Click to expand...
Richmond has used 42 players this year. Only 4 of their listed players have not played a game in 2024.

A similar injury run and you'd be presented with a bunch of random 18 year olds picked at 50+ instead of say Jeka or Willis.

Plus the more teenagers we add the more kids our development coaches split their time over. Willis would be able to take greater responsibility for his own training than some random kid currently studying for year 12 and not really expecting to be drafted.
 
CatToTheFuture said:
Richmond has used 42 players this year. Only 4 of their listed players have not played a game in 2024.

A similar injury run and you'd be presented with a bunch of random 18 year olds picked at 50+ instead of say Jeka or Willis.

Plus the more teenagers we add the more kids our development coaches split their time over. Willis would be able to take greater responsibility for his own training than some random kid currently studying for year 12 and not really expecting to be drafted.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily random kids but a few mature agers. If we’re decimated by injury we’d still have a group of 30 players able to step up to senior football. And it would be a moot point as we haven’t got the quality to stay competitive anyway, may as well look at some new faces and hope one or two show something.
 

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supahoops said:
Not necessarily random kids but a few mature agers. If we’re decimated by injury we’d still have a group of 30 players able to step up to senior football. And it would be a moot point as we haven’t got the quality to stay competitive anyway, may as well look at some new faces and hope one or two show something.
Click to expand...
Not all that easy to find ready made mature agers as we know. And I think our list make up next year might largely be determined by the conversations the club chooses to have with Tuohy / Duncan / Rohan. What type of contract do we offer them (and dollars) and how far are those three in particular prepared to stick around knowing they're spending most of the year in the VFL?

VFL is really just "doing it for the love". If we tried to hold blokes just to play development type roles and low ball contracts, then the right thing to do is send them on their way - thank them for their service - and let them find a juicy contract for a year or two elsewhere and on some ok coin.
 
supahoops said:
Not necessarily random kids but a few mature agers. If we’re decimated by injury we’d still have a group of 30 players able to step up to senior football. And it would be a moot point as we haven’t got the quality to stay competitive anyway, may as well look at some new faces and hope one or two show something.
Click to expand...
Sure but are the mature agers available any better than the mature agers you're getting rid of? At some point it's just churn for the sake of churn
 
CatToTheFuture said:
Sure but are the mature agers available any better than the mature agers you're getting rid of? At some point it's just churn for the sake of churn
Click to expand...
Even on the off-chance Geelong have a Humphries, Stewart, Menegola, Mannagh, or Pods stashed away, we have to be reasonable here and assume it's only one.

It's an enormous win to get just one of those guys with a token pick, we're not going to find 3-4 of them in one draft.
 
Funny that with all the Ollie Henry discussion no one has mentioned he's OOC at end of 24 according to my info.

Thought he'd be done with by now but its very very quiet.

GO CAtters
 
dazbroncos said:
Funny that with all the Ollie Henry discussion no one has mentioned he's OOC at end of 24 according to my info.

Thought he'd be done with by now but its very very quiet.

GO CAtters
Click to expand...

Trading him to Melbourne as a direct swap for Trac

They need forwards, we need mids

;)
 
dazbroncos said:
Funny that with all the Ollie Henry discussion no one has mentioned he's OOC at end of 24 according to my info.

Thought he'd be done with by now but its very very quiet.

GO CAtters
Click to expand...
... that feels like they just forgot to announce it, or he's holding off signing until he hits a bit of form to talk up a bonus?
 
Hypothetical trade scenarios for Trac:

GEELONG CATS

Can never rule out the Cats. They have a knack for finding ways to bring in superstars including being seen as the favourite to land Western Bulldogs gun Bailey Smith. As such, that likely puts a line through Geelong and Petracca, unless Cats list boss and football manager Andrew Mackie can weave some magic. As far as pure appeal goes, Geelong under Chris Scott has one of the best cultures in the AFL. So if Petracca were to pursue an off-Broadway type move and want to get out of the bright lights of Melbourne but remain close to home, they make sense.


Current draft picks: 15, 35, 2025 first rounder, 2025 second rounder



All clubs here - https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/te...L3_l2OAiAcWxY7kupk_aem_TNHy89OrQ7hUvm1cTgGRbw
 
dazbroncos said:
Funny that with all the Ollie Henry discussion no one has mentioned he's OOC at end of 24 according to my info.

Thought he'd be done with by now but its very very quiet.

GO CAtters
Click to expand...
Bowes and Ollie Henry both out of contract at end of year. Expect them to be the next announcement plus an extension on Humphries contract beyond 2025.
 

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bombersboy said:
Bowes and Ollie Henry both out of contract at end of year. Expect them to be the next announcement plus an extension on Humphries contract beyond 2025.
Click to expand...
Bowes is contracted through to 2026

When he agreed to join Geelong, he signed a 4 year deal which spread the remaining high value 2 year deal at GC over an additional 2 years, with a bit more thrown on top

Footywire has his out of date deal wrong as they didn't update following his trade
 
Good news - Jack Viney just signed a contract extension with the Dees. Phew.
 
Personally with Smith its another Jade Rawlings situation and i hope he doesnt end up at Geel

Some supporters get so excited and want their club linked to any available player on the market , and then suddenly in their mind that player is just so damm good

My 4 bobs worth , is Smith genuinely quick , seems to have an unusual running action , and my opinion Rohan Mannagh and Dangerfield would leave him for dead over 30 metres

Has Smith ever kicked a goal in his career like the one Clinton Young of Frem kicked against Geel , got the ball from the centre bounce , burnt off Bruhn , had a bounce and kicked a ripper 60 metre goal , thats the type of play potential gun midfielders can do . Can Smith kick 60 metres

FWIW , he is unavailable and going back to SA for family reasons but Alex Neal- Bullen i think is a better allround footballer than B Smith , and if he was available id much prefer him at Geel than B Smith

You dont want to let the hype get in front of reality , and you only have to look at what NM gave up for Leigh Colbert , and that was the start of the end for the Kangaroos
 
Goggin Our Best said:
Personally with Smith its another Jade Rawlings situation and i hope he doesnt end up at Geel

Some supporters get so excited and want their club linked to any available player on the market , and then suddenly in their mind that player is just so damm good

My 4 bobs worth , is Smith genuinely quick , seems to have an unusual running action , and my opinion Rohan Mannagh and Dangerfield would leave him for dead over 30 metres

Has Smith ever kicked a goal in his career like the one Clinton Young of Frem kicked against Geel , got the ball from the centre bounce , burnt off Bruhn , had a bounce and kicked a ripper 60 metre goal , thats the type of play potential gun midfielders can do . Can Smith kick 60 metres

FWIW , he is unavailable and going back to SA for family reasons but Alex Neal- Bullen i think is a better allround footballer than B Smith , and if he was available id much prefer him at Geel than B Smith

You dont want to let the hype get in front of reality , and you only have to look at what NM gave up for Leigh Colbert , and that was the start of the end for the Kangaroos
Click to expand...

Here's Bailey's BOG 2021 prelim (4 goals, 23 possessions):

He would walk into our team as our best midfielder, and has all the traits we've lacked since Dangerfield aged and Guthrie got injured - explosiveness, goal kicking ability, high possession winner.

Nobody is claiming he is going to arrive and win a Brownlow, but he will make our team better from day one and is young enough to have hopefully a decade left.
 
Hinkley29 said:
If that’s what you read into my post, then I can’t help you. I will spell it out in simple terms:

  • Petracca = some low level risk based on current circumstance
  • Oliver = glowing red thermonuclear level risk based on current circumstance
Click to expand...
Very unlikely we get either so the back and forth semantics and tit for tat is probably moot.
 
Hinkley29 said:
Maybe.

But I think you are underestimating how disastrous the last 2 seasons have been for Oliver. He is toxic right now.

Plus, Oliver’s issues are largely of his own making. How can you have any confidence in that turning around?

Petracca’s issues are almost exclusively due to an injury and his club’s ineptitude. All indications are that he will do everything possible to get himself right. He is a risk worth taking.

Oliver’s recent behaviour gives me absolutely no confidence that he will aid in his own rehabilitation. His very high probability of default makes him a risk to avoid - he is a 10c speculative stock.

This is not poker and EV is a binary way to look at a non-binary situation. Let’s say that Geelong acquired Oliver for an acceptable contract and a first round pick. The range of outcomes would be anything from:
  • Oliver gets back to elite player form and lives happily ever after (very unlikely)
  • Oliver is somewhat rehabilitated, gets back to above average midfield form but you are always waiting for the next **** up (most likely scenario)
  • he never gets his body right and the contract and draft pick is wasted (somewhat likely)
  • he never gets his body right, is a complete **** up off the field and has a destabilising effect on our culture as well as wasting the contract and draft pick (unlikely but more likely than the extreme upside version).

There is acknowledged upside (very unlikely, but a non-zero chance) but there is also a scenario where he is not just no value, but has a badly negative impact on our club. His range of outcomes is highly negative impact to highly positive impact.

Petracca does not have the risk of being a negative impact on our culture and of the club having to babysit him and be associated with any off field screw ups. His range of outcomes is zero impact to highly positive impact. He doesnt have anywhere near the downside risk that Oliver does.
Click to expand...

Yeah I agree except for the part Oliver being a negative impact on our culture. We have never had one player destroy our culture and we wouldn’t. We manage things so much smarter and better than Melbourne. But his input might not be good.

Again though, the trade cost counterbalances everything as well. Hence why Petracca won’t happen and is impossible for us. But Oliver is conceivable.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Goggin Our Best said:
Personally with Smith its another Jade Rawlings situation and i hope he doesnt end up at Geel

Some supporters get so excited and want their club linked to any available player on the market , and then suddenly in their mind that player is just so damm good

My 4 bobs worth , is Smith genuinely quick , seems to have an unusual running action , and my opinion Rohan Mannagh and Dangerfield would leave him for dead over 30 metres

Has Smith ever kicked a goal in his career like the one Clinton Young of Frem kicked against Geel , got the ball from the centre bounce , burnt off Bruhn , had a bounce and kicked a ripper 60 metre goal , thats the type of play potential gun midfielders can do . Can Smith kick 60 metres

FWIW , he is unavailable and going back to SA for family reasons but Alex Neal- Bullen i think is a better allround footballer than B Smith , and if he was available id much prefer him at Geel than B Smith

You dont want to let the hype get in front of reality , and you only have to look at what NM gave up for Leigh Colbert , and that was the start of the end for the Kangaroos
Click to expand...

Danger would ping his hammy trying to leave Smith for dead over 30. Genuinely can’t believe some people don’t want Smith at Geelong. Almost makes me think they’ve never watched him play.
 

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