Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[CatToTheFuture]

why arent we linked with james peatling. dude is exactly what we need and doesnt cost a massive haul as he behing a bunch of stars in gws. i reckon he be a star himself in a few years.

He is sub so often it's hard to get a read. But his 18 contested possession / 11 tackle game against Melbourne certainly pricks the ears up

 

[cats_09]

Holmes played a ton of mid against St Kilda last weekend, 16 CBAs.

We took some interesting approaches to our centre bounce attendees against St Kilda

Holmes with 16 CBAs - 8 in the 2nd qtr & 8 in the 3rd qtr, none in the first or last

Then we've got Atkins who's been a mainstay over the second half of the season when he's been in the team. He attended all 4 centre bounces in the 1st quarter and all 11 in the last, but only 4 in the 2nd qtr and none in the 3rd

Bowes also had to wait until the 4th to attend his first CBA for the match, while Miers with 6 CBAs actually attended more than Jack

It really felt like the first time since the Carlton game that we wanted to get a look at various combinations, versus sticking with ones we know had been working over recent months

 

[Warhorse]

We took some interesting approaches to our centre bounce attendees against St Kilda

Holmes with 16 CBAs - 8 in the 2nd qtr & 8 in the 3rd qtr, none in the first or last

Then we've got Atkins who's been a mainstay over the second half of the season when he's been in the team. He attended all 4 centre bounces in the 1st quarter and all 11 in the last, but only 4 in the 2nd qtr and none in the 3rd

Bowes also had to wait until the 4th to attend his first CBA for the match, while Miers with 6 CBAs actually attended more than Jack

It really felt like the first time since the Carlton game that we wanted to get a look at various combinations, versus sticking with ones we know had been working over recent months

Or it was fatigue management rather than getting a different look

 

[MisterMarcus]

When we did that we added Cameron, Smith, Higgins and rightly expected the pick to be late.

Smith will give us a bump but big enough to ensure we get bang for buck from that selection? Wouldn't think so. Maybe trade out future 2nd for a current 2nd but I wouldn't touch the first

If we’re doing a turnover of the list, I think most opposition clubs would expect us to finish lower next year.

We might be able to wrangle 2 mid/late first rounders this year for our F1 (if clubs expect our F1 to be in the top 10)

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Bews has hardly played AFL all year so hardly a loss. Rohan has only played 12 games, with 6 of those as sub. I don't care about "losing experience" if that experience isn't contributing at AFL level anyway. If they are only contributing by developing younger players on the track then they can do that as development coaches.

They can although theres benefits to the soft cap in having one development coach on your playing list (if they are willing to).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If we’re doing a turnover of the list, I think most opposition clubs would expect us to finish lower next year.

We might be able to wrangle 2 mid/late first rounders this year for our F1 (if clubs expect our F1 to be in the top 10)

Too risky.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Let's just say we end up with Smith & Davies (or similar).

That's still 6 list spots with token picks, as our first will be going to the Dogs, and probably our second too.

Proving again that 10-12 is just way too deep with what we're capable of bringing in over one off-season.

I trust the club to have a surprise or two hidden away at the end of the draft. It's just their MO, but I don't think they're going to have 4+ of them.

Theres delisted FAs plus SSPs plus we will have to trade in at least one ruck. We will fill the spots.

 

[Hinkley29]

I do think Dempsey has a bit of connor rozee about him

Does Rozee have a basketball background?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Does Rozee have a basketball background?

I know his mum was a gun netballer so I assume he can ball

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If we’re doing a turnover of the list, I think most opposition clubs would expect us to finish lower next year.

We might be able to wrangle 2 mid/late first rounders this year for our F1 (if clubs expect our F1 to be in the top 10)

You'd want to be sure of a good deal on that future first before casting off the bowlines there.

I'd much prefer to just leave the future first as sacrosanct and see if we can get a pick in the 30s for our future second

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Theres delisted FAs plus SSPs plus we will have to trade in at least one ruck. We will fill the spots.

That doesn't change anything I said. I didn't say we'd struggle to fill the spots.

I said we can't get into a habit of filling 6-7 spots a year with the last picks in the draft, DFAs, or anything else that isn't likely to be valuable.

A couple a year is fine. Once you're bringing them in en masse you're almost always just clogging the list with spuds.

Worse than that, you're clogging the list with spuds on two year deals too.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

That doesn't change anything I said. I didn't say we'd struggle to fill the spots.

I said we can't get into a habit of filling 6-7 spots a year with the last picks in the draft, DFAs, or anything else that isn't likely to be valuable.

A couple a year is fine. Once you're bringing them in en masse you're almost always just clogging the list with spuds.

Worse than that, you're clogging the list with spuds on two year deals too.

But average like 8-10 changes per year and we only ever start with one first.

2023: 8 out
2022: 9 out
2021: 10 out
2020: 9 out
2019: 9 out
2018: 11 out
2017: 7 out
2016: 13 out
2015: 12 out
2014: 10 out

In 10 years we've never said goodbye to fewer than 7 and that was wedged between a year of 11 and a year of 13.

The number isn't the problem, it's the relative quality of player.

 

[Warhorse]

But average like 8-10 changes per year and we only ever start with one first.

2023: 8 out
2022: 9 out
2021: 10 out
2020: 9 out
2019: 9 out
2018: 11 out
2017: 7 out
2016: 13 out
2015: 12 out
2014: 10 out

In 10 years we've never said goodbye to fewer than 7 and that was wedged between a year of 11 and a year of 13.

The number isn't the problem, it's the relative quality of player.

It makes sense. The more picks taken at the back end of the draft the more aggressive you need to be turning over the list as the likelihood of success is lower for each individual pick.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

It makes sense. The more picks taken at the back end of the draft the more aggressive you need to be turning over the list as the likelihood of success is lower for each individual pick.

For sure, it's just that cutting 8-10 isn't statistically different to what we've been turning over

 

[Lana]

It makes sense. The more picks taken at the back end of the draft the more aggressive you need to be turning over the list as the likelihood of success is lower for each individual pick.

That only really matters if you need success from each pick, if you only need one to come good to keep the fire going then the odds aren't so bad

 

[cats_09]

For sure, it's just that cutting 8-10 isn't statistically different to what we've been turning over

Agree on that aspect

I think where we’re having a bit of discussion this year is the rough make-up of those 8-10 players we’d be losing, as I’m not too sure it would often be that we’re losing 4, 5 or 6 players that combine for 1200/1300+ games - or potentially 1500+ games if Dangerfield is the only 30+ we re-sign

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a turnover of 8-10 players again this year, but we’ve got to trust that Mackie, Wells & Co will find the right balance in who we lose, plus who & how they are replaced

 

[My Tilly]

When we did that we added Cameron, Smith, Higgins and rightly expected the pick to be late.

Smith will give us a bump but big enough to ensure we get bang for buck from that selection? Wouldn't think so. Maybe trade out future 2nd for a current 2nd but I wouldn't touch the first

Smith has the potential to become one of the top 10 mids in the game if his body holds up.
Seriously talented player and like Cameron in his final season at Giants . . . bit of the hype died down after a rather disappointing finale at the Dogs.

 

[catempire]

To be gone this year I’m going with:

Hawkins
Tuohy
Rohan
Stanley
Murdoch
Willis
Hardie
Wiltshire edit: contracted so safe
Foster

The two others I think are perilous are Parfitt and Bews. Just think losing a lot of experience at once might save them and neither will have outside suitors.

 

[cats_09]

To be gone this year I’m going with:

Hawkins
Tuohy
Rohan
Stanley
Murdoch
Willis
Hardie
Wiltshire
Foster

The two others I think are perilous are Parfitt and Bews. Just think losing a lot of experience at once might save them and neither will have outside suitors.

Wiltshire is contracted - he was an ND pick last year so signed on an initial 2-year deal. I know he’s had a few injury issues this year, but surely we don’t cut him just 1 year in with another year remaining

I’m going with Willis also getting a futher 1 year deal - now that he’s finally got his body right he’s showing some positive signs in the VFL. I’d like to see what he could do with a full pre-season under his belt and how he then attacks next year

 

[Kobe Gryant]

To be gone this year I’m going with:

Hawkins
Tuohy
Rohan
Stanley
Murdoch
Willis
Hardie
Wiltshire
Foster

The two others I think are perilous are Parfitt and Bews. Just think losing a lot of experience at once might save them and neither will have outside suitors.

Pretty stiff for Wiltshire.

He's probably on minimum chips, but we'd still be paying out his contract if we delisted him.

Let him see that out at least, if he doesn't show anything then it's curtains.

We're not bringing in a banquet of quality this off-season that would require contracted players to be moved on.

 

[catempire]

Wiltshire is contracted - he was an ND pick last year so signed on an initial 2-year deal. I know he’s had a few injury issues this year, but surely we don’t cut him just 1 year in with another year remaining

I’m going with Willis also getting a futher 1 year deal - now that he’s finally got his body right he’s showing some positive signs in the VFL. I’d like to see what he could do with a full pre-season under his belt and how he then attacks next year

Good pickup on Wiltshire. I thought this was his second year.

 

[Heckler]

Season 2024 nears the end
Potentially see 5 Stars retire.
May also see 5 spuds delisted

Team Rebuilding required.
Knevitt : Mullin : O'Sullivan
Conway : Clark : Clohesy
Expected to step up in 2025

Shaping as Draft Pick No.15
Late 2nd rounder selection
Rest fall into Leftovers Land

Dog's Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

is coming
Need a tall strong midfielder
Phantom Draft Ranking No.18
Cooper Hynes 190 Mid/Fwd
Good ball user + Goal kicker
VIC : Dandenong Stingrays
Cooper Hynes Highlights

May need to consider trade
Kolo : As Trade Bait Worth??
Would attract serious interest

 

[Commando]

Season 2024 nears the end
Potentially see 5 Stars retire.
May also see 5 spuds delisted

Team Rebuilding required.
Knevitt : Mullin : O'Sullivan
Conway : Clark : Clohesy
Expected to step up in 2025

Shaping as Draft Pick No.15
Late 2nd rounder selection
Rest fall into Leftovers Land

Dog's Bailey Smith is coming
Need a tall strong midfielder
Phantom Draft Ranking No.18
Cooper Hynes 190 Mid/Fwd
Good ball user + Goal kicker
VIC : Dandenong Stingrays
Cooper Hynes Highlights

May need to consider trade
Kolo : As Trade Bait Worth??
Would attract serious interest

Kolo wouldn't attract anything decent
Would be a net loss to trade him

 

[Heckler]

Kolo wouldn't attract anything decent
Would be a net loss to trade him

Cats problem is lack of Trade Bait
Senior stars are too old to trade
Kittens are too needed to trade
Future Picks are too valuable

Only option left is 8 late Picks
Hope to find some potential

 

[Cataholic]

We took some interesting approaches to our centre bounce attendees against St Kilda

Holmes with 16 CBAs - 8 in the 2nd qtr & 8 in the 3rd qtr, none in the first or last

Then we've got Atkins who's been a mainstay over the second half of the season when he's been in the team. He attended all 4 centre bounces in the 1st quarter and all 11 in the last, but only 4 in the 2nd qtr and none in the 3rd

Bowes also had to wait until the 4th to attend his first CBA for the match, while Miers with 6 CBAs actually attended more than Jack

It really felt like the first time since the Carlton game that we wanted to get a look at various combinations, versus sticking with ones we know had been working over recent months

Scott said after the game that they tried all sorts of positional changes to try and stem the bleeding, without effect.