Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[D BRIDGE]

Our first round selections generally SUCK anyway.. We have had very little luck with those..

23 - O'Sullivan ? Unknown
22 - Clark ? Unknown
19 - Cooper Stephens - Awful pick
18 - J Clarke - GONE HOME
14 - Nakia Cockatoo - Injury prone, never met potential
13 - Darcy Lang - DUD
12 - Jackson Thurlow - Injured DUD
10 - Billie Smedts - DUD
09 - Dan Menzel - SUPER injury prone.

Our traded 1st round picks -
2022 - Pick 18 for Tanner Bruhn
2020 - Traded our 2021 first pick for pick 20, which we used on Max Holmes.
2020 - 13, 15 and 20 for Jeremy Cameron
2015 - Traded our 2016 1st rounder for Lachie Henderson
2015 - Pick 9 for Dangerfield
2004 - Picks 12 and 16 for Brad Ottens

Trading our first rounders, however, have been extremely successful...

You are confusing what Smith is worth with what we can actually get him for.

Sure he is probably worth 2x late R1s... but if we can get him for less why offer more than required.

It's like going into Coles to buy something and seeing it on special for 50% off but deciding to pay full price because in your eyes you are happy paying more than required.

We will get him for less... I have no doubt about that.

 

[cats_09]

Preuss delisted by GWS today. 29. Any chance Cats would be interested, as a stop gap for Stanley/Conway?

No

The simply fact is he wouldn't be a stop gap for any position on the field and instead would know the medical team better then his own teammates by the end of his first season

 

[And_ROOS]

You cant compare Stevie J and Chappy with danger. They had some good games their last year but danger was legit AA quality bar games played.

Stevie J was more damaging in his first GWS season then he was his last season for us (comparative stats and games but kicked 13 more goals and had 4 more GA for GWS) and his last season at GWS his role changed and he dropped off a bit but was still capable of things like 6 goals in the SF against a WCE that won the flag the following season.
If we had kept Stevie J for 2 more years as a key forward he probably helps our finals push in 2016 and maybe 2017 because he was still at a high level.

I agree with Chappy moving on, he played 20 games the year after he left us but the drop off was obvious and then struggled to 9 games the following season.

Was getting Danger contingent on losing Stevie J? Because if it was, we made the right choice. If it wasn't, we should have kept Johnson til he retired.

 

[catstragic]

Why would we be looking at Jack Martin?

Give him a three year deal. Get him fit the first year. Watch him make the AA squad in his second year when we beat the Hawks to threepeat. Trade him to brisbane in 2027 for the Ashcroft brothers. EZ.

 

[Strange Cat]

Stevie J was more damaging in his first GWS season then he was his last season for us (comparative stats and games but kicked 13 more goals and had 4 more GA for GWS) and his last season at GWS his role changed and he dropped off a bit but was still capable of things like 6 goals in the SF against a WCE that won the flag the following season.
If we had kept Stevie J for 2 more years as a key forward he probably helps our finals push in 2016 and maybe 2017 because he was still at a high level.

I agree with Chappy moving on, he played 20 games the year after he left us but the drop off was obvious and then struggled to 9 games the following season.

Was getting Danger contingent on losing Stevie J? Because if it was, we made the right choice. If it wasn't, we should have kept Johnson til he retired.

The issue around SJ was that he was starting to affect the kids around him and questioning Scott before his trade it wasn’t good for the culture as much as I love him and what he did for the club

 

[Seeds]

Our first round selections generally SUCK anyway.. We have had very little luck with those..

23 - O'Sullivan ? Unknown
22 - Clark ? Unknown
19 - Cooper Stephens - Awful pick
18 - J Clarke - GONE HOME
14 - Nakia Cockatoo - Injury prone, never met potential
13 - Darcy Lang - DUD
12 - Jackson Thurlow - Injured DUD
10 - Billie Smedts - DUD
09 - Dan Menzel - SUPER injury prone.

Our traded 1st round picks -
2022 - Pick 18 for Tanner Bruhn
2020 - Traded our 2021 first pick for pick 20, which we used on Max Holmes.
2020 - 13, 15 and 20 for Jeremy Cameron
2015 - Traded our 2016 1st rounder for Lachie Henderson
2015 - Pick 9 for Dangerfield
2004 - Picks 12 and 16 for Brad Ottens

Trading our first rounders, however, have been extremely successful...

I'd trade Billie Smedts and Jackson Thurlow for Bailey Smith any day of the week..

Cockatoo qualifies for super injury prone. His hamstrings destroyed him as a player.

 

[Mangy Carl]

You are confusing what Smith is worth with what we can actually get him for.

Sure he is probably worth 2x late R1s... but if we can get him for less why offer more than required.

It's like going into Coles to buy something and seeing it on special for 50% off but deciding to pay full price because in your eyes you are happy paying more than required.

We will get him for less... I have no doubt about that.

Smith is 23, with 100 games under his belt. He was pick 7 in 2018 and is a proven, line breaking GUN.
Yes, he's coming off a knee reco, that's a risk, but we know, at his best, he can be a top 20 player. And he's know where near his playing peak.


We cant get him pre-season. No chance.. Dogs wont accept picks 18ish and 36ish (our first 2 selections), that's way unders.
We dont have any trade capital, our best bet to move up the draft order is to try and trade up with a club such as Bris/GC/ESS/CARL etc who will trade out higher picks for draft points for father/sons/Academy picks. Still, its highly doubtful we have enough to get a top 10 pick.

If we cant satisfy the Doggies, they can always trade him to another side..
Richmond will have plenty of high picks to work with, and could force the Doggies hand to trade or walk Smith to the pre-season draft for nothing. St Kilda would happily pounce with pick 7..
Smith has no power in this trade, Doggies 'could' force him into a Richmond trade by threatening him they will walk him to the pre-season draft and straight into Richmond's hands anyway.

A lot of teams would happily trade those picks just to move into the top 10 of the draft, which is still just a speculative player.

2022 saw the Cats trade picks 38,48,55 AND our 2023 2nd and 4th round picks (31 and 55) ALL for pick 25, which we traded for Ollie Henry.

 

[Strange Cat]

Smith is 23, with 100 games under his belt. He was pick 7 in 2018 and is a proven, line breaking GUN.
Yes, he's coming off a knee reco, that's a risk, but we know, at his best, he can be a top 20 player. And he's know where near his playing peak.


We cant get him pre-season. No chance.. Dogs wont accept picks 18ish and 36ish (our first 2 selections), that's way unders.
We dont have any trade capital, our best bet to move up the draft order is to try and trade up with a club such as Bris/GC/ESS/CARL etc who will trade out higher picks for draft points for father/sons/Academy picks. Still, its highly doubtful we have enough to get a top 10 pick.

If we cant satisfy the Doggies, they can always trade him to another side..
Richmond will have plenty of high picks to work with, and could force the Doggies hand to trade or walk Smith to the pre-season draft for nothing. St Kilda would happily pounce with pick 7..
Smith has no power in this trade, Doggies 'could' force him into a Richmond trade by threatening him they will walk him to the pre-season draft and straight into Richmond's hands anyway.

A lot of teams would happily trade those picks just to move into the top 10 of the draft, which is still just a speculative player.

2022 saw the Cats trade picks 38,48,55 AND our 2023 2nd and 4th round picks (31 and 55) ALL for pick 25, which we traded for Ollie Henry.

Dogs will just take the best offer we can provide , they won’t walk him into the draft that’ll wreck havoc on their culture and future trading reputation

Cats won’t give unders for Smith by also won’t run around trying to get better picks imo

 

[supahoops]

Smith is 23, with 100 games under his belt. He was pick 7 in 2018 and is a proven, line breaking GUN.
Yes, he's coming off a knee reco, that's a risk, but we know, at his best, he can be a top 20 player. And he's know where near his playing peak.


We cant get him pre-season. No chance.. Dogs wont accept picks 18ish and 36ish (our first 2 selections), that's way unders.
We dont have any trade capital, our best bet to move up the draft order is to try and trade up with a club such as Bris/GC/ESS/CARL etc who will trade out higher picks for draft points for father/sons/Academy picks. Still, its highly doubtful we have enough to get a top 10 pick.

If we cant satisfy the Doggies, they can always trade him to another side..
Richmond will have plenty of high picks to work with, and could force the Doggies hand to trade or walk Smith to the pre-season draft for nothing. St Kilda would happily pounce with pick 7..
Smith has no power in this trade, Doggies 'could' force him into a Richmond trade by threatening him they will walk him to the pre-season draft and straight into Richmond's hands anyway.

A lot of teams would happily trade those picks just to move into the top 10 of the draft, which is still just a speculative player.

2022 saw the Cats trade picks 38,48,55 AND our 2023 2nd and 4th round picks (31 and 55) ALL for pick 25, which we traded for Ollie Henry.

So much stated here I don’t know where to start responding, so I won’t.

 

[Mangy Carl]

So much stated here I don’t know where to start responding, so I won’t.

You act as if somehow Geelong and Smith would somehow have the upper hand in a trade request, and the Doggies will be forced to accept whatever we offer?

Doggies can just say, we want X & Y, or we deal with Richmond, who will have 5-6 first rounders..

If we want Smith, our 24 and 25 1st rounders will be the bare minimum.

 

[supahoops]

You act as if somehow Geelong and Smith would somehow have the upper hand in a trade request, and the Doggies will be forced to accept whatever we offer?

Doggies can just say, we want X & Y, or we deal with Richmond, who will have 5-6 first rounders..

If we want Smith, our 24 and 25 1st rounders will be the bare minimum.

Smith will get to whatever club he nominates, disingenuous and patently ridiculous to suggest otherwise, there’s no Nick Stevens scenario in play here and Dogs have no leverage to tell Smith where he’s playing in 2025.

 

[Reg Hickey]

You act as if somehow Geelong and Smith would somehow have the upper hand in a trade request, and the Doggies will be forced to accept whatever we offer?

Doggies can just say, we want X & Y, or we deal with Richmond, who will have 5-6 first rounders..

If we want Smith, our 24 and 25 1st rounders will be the bare minimum.

Assuming he nominates us as his preferred destination, then we do. 100%.

 

[Reg Hickey]

Id like to see some recent data on Rongdit. He has been listed as 183cm for a fair while….

Ben Rongdit

central.rookieme.com

Would like to know more about this. What is our connection to him (other than he's a Falcons player)?

 

[Mangy Carl]

Smith will get to whatever club he nominates, disingenuous and patently ridiculous to suggest otherwise, there’s no Nick Stevens scenario in play here and Dogs have no leverage to tell Smith where he’s playing in 2025.

Yes they do.. They can walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond, Smith has ZERO choice then.
It could be pre-season draft and Richmond, or main draft and anywhere.

While unlikely, it does give Richmond a LOT of power if they want Smith.

They have the Cap space, and since Rioli, Bolton and Baker will be traded out for high picks, they will have a LOT of draft capital to easily satisfy the Doggies

Again, unlikely. If Smith does nominate Geelong, they will both try their hardest for a fair deal, and 2 x high teen picks is still probably unders and will be a minimum starting point.

 

[Gunf]

You act as if somehow Geelong and Smith would somehow have the upper hand in a trade request, and the Doggies will be forced to accept whatever we offer?

Doggies can just say, we want X & Y, or we deal with Richmond, who will have 5-6 first rounders..

If we want Smith, our 24 and 25 1st rounders will be the bare minimum.

You are forgetting Smith can tell the Doggies that he won't play for Richmond which means they could have every first round pick and the Dogs could want them all and Richmond could offer them all and it still wouldn't matter

 

[Gunf]

Yes they do.. They can walk him to the pre-season draft and straight to Richmond, Smith has ZERO choice then.
It could be pre-season draft and Richmond, or main draft and anywhere.

While unlikely, it does give Richmond a LOT of power if they want Smith.

They have the Cap space, and since Rioli, Bolton and Baker will be traded out for high picks, they will have a LOT of draft capital to easily satisfy the Doggies

Again, unlikely. If Smith does nominate Geelong, they will both try their hardest for a fair deal, and 2 x high teen picks is still probably unders and will be a minimum starting point.

The chance any club walks a player to the draft is less than 1%

Also Smith could nominate the national draft instead of the preseason draft

 

[calder_daddy]

No

The simply fact is he wouldn't be a stop gap for any position on the field and instead would know the medical team better then his own teammates by the end of his first season

I don’t want Pruess but the same can be said for Martin.
Yet here we’re giving him a medical and being interested in him

 

[Gunf]

I don’t want Pruess but the same can be said for Martin.
Yet here we’re giving him a medical and being interested in him

If the rumours are true we are looking at Martin i will be shocked as we don't need small forwards and unless we are offering base wage and telling him he is backup and will play VFL 99% of the time and he is happy to do that i can't see why he would look at us instead of someone else who needs small forwards.

Preuss is way to injury prone pass

 

[Mangy Carl]

You are forgetting Smith can tell the Doggies that he won't play for Richmond which means they could have every first round pick and the Dogs could want them all and Richmond could offer them all and it still wouldn't matter

Lets say, for arguments sake, Smith nominated Collingwood...
Collingwood ONLY have picks 33, 48 and 51.. No team would just accept those picks because 'thats the nominated team and that's all they have, better that than nothing'..

Nope, no way. Every club knows that all trading is a 2 way street.. If a club tried to do that in a trade (garbage picks or nothing), then EVERY other club would then try that to them. Its a false economy.

While EVERY club will haggle on the value of the player, there is always a fair ballpark figure they will invariably accept.

 

[Gunf]

Every year we have people (mostly on the main board and twitter etc) try and pull just walk so and so to the draft screw them for not giving us everything they have.

What those posters in general(not singling out anyone) is that if the player nominates the National draft the chance of anyone using a good first rounder on a play who doesn't want to play for them is incredibly low...

And in Smiths case a player who doesn't want to play for you who has a history of mental problems and is coming off an ACL would lower the chance even more.

Now maybe a Vic club would pounce with a pick around 15 or so but it is still unlikely.

 

[Gunf]

Lets say, for arguments sake, Smith nominated Collingwood...
Collingwood ONLY have picks 33, 48 and 51.. No team would just accept those picks because 'thats the nominated team and that's all they have, better that than nothing'..

Nope, no way. Every club knows that all trading is a 2 way street.. If a club tried to do that in a trade (garbage picks or nothing), then EVERY other club would then try that to them. Its a false economy.

While EVERY club will haggle on the value of the player, there is always a fair ballpark figure they will invariably accept.

No player and his manager would ever nominate a club that couldn't get the deal done.

If Smith nominated Coll it is because they have told him after talking to the Dogs that the deal will 99% get done

 

[Mangy Carl]

No player and his manager would ever nominate a club that couldn't get the deal done.

If Smith nominated Coll it is because they have told him after talking to the Dogs that the deal will 99% get done

Correct. That's why I think the Cats will happily give up, what could be pick 18-22ish this year, and hopefully pick 15+ next year, for Smith.. That's not a high price.

Like I mentioned before, in 2022 Geelong gave up picks 38,48,55 AND 2023 picks 31 and 55 for Ollie Henry, a talented but unproven mid forward.

 

[moond0g]

Preuss delisted by GWS today. 29. Any chance Cats would be interested, as a stop gap for Stanley/Conway?

No.

But it's interesting to think he's been able to eek out a 9 year career and at various stages has been very hyped, all the while only playing 28 games. Well done to him.

 

[cats_09]

If we cant satisfy the Doggies, they can always trade him to another side..
Richmond will have plenty of high picks to work with, and could force the Doggies hand to trade or walk Smith to the pre-season draft for nothing. St Kilda would happily pounce with pick 7..
Smith has no power in this trade, Doggies 'could' force him into a Richmond trade by threatening him they will walk him to the pre-season draft and straight into Richmond's hands anyway.

No they can't

It's a false notion that a club can trade a player to a club other than that of a choice, purely because another club says they'll give a better pick instead - the AFLPA would step in before the paperwork was signed

After Hawthorn traded Croad to Fremantle back in 2021, when as Croad said, "he went in for surgery on a wrist injury at the end of the 2001 season, he went under a Hawk and woke up a Docker.", just wouldn't be permitted now days and loopholes were closed to stop clubs doing that

Rightly or wrongly, players hold the power in trades and if Smith says to the Bulldogs that his wishes are to be traded to Geelong, it's then between the two team to get their act together and work through a trade

If after a couple of days the Bulldogs turned around & said, "Oh BTW, Richmond are going to offer pick 6 for Smith, so what are you going to do to up your offer", would very quickly see any goodwill out the door and the AFLPA getting involved to support the player, which would be followed by meditation organised by the AFL

The Bulldogs have some power in the situation, but not the power to completely dictate how the trade plays out nor where Smith ends up

 

[moond0g]

You are confusing what Smith is worth with what we can actually get him for.

Sure he is probably worth 2x late R1s... but if we can get him for less why offer more than required.

It's like going into Coles to buy something and seeing it on special for 50% off but deciding to pay full price because in your eyes you are happy paying more than required.

We will get him for less... I have no doubt about that.

Perhaps true. But I also think you may need to come to terms with not getting him at a 50% discount, but more like a 15-20% discount, to use your analogy.

We certainly won't give 2 first for him, but I think the chances that we get away with this years first in isolation (~pick 17 pre bids) are also very slim.