List Mgmt. Gibbs - 2017 Trade Discussions! V2.0

[Wood_Duck]

We ****** up

Yeah a bit of honesty wouldn't go astray some times.

 

[PrideOf]

So I'm listening to Trade radio after avoiding it for two weeks and Jeebus it's hilarious how little value they're providing.

"We're crossing now to Geelong's list manager who has now entered the building!"

"Stephen, is Gary Ablett coming home today?"
"Probably, we'll see."
"And what about Darcy Lange?"
"Hope to do something there."

Rinse, repeat.

 

[TrainRoo32]

Because both clubs have form.

Carlton are much more likely to be bottom 4 based on what we know; Adelaide is much more likely to be top 4.

Miracles don't happen often enough that we need to prepare for Carlton playing finals this season.

Mate we aren’t going one better next year you know that!
We will start the season weaker than this year and that’s fact.
Harder draw, mentally fragile team who WILL NOT make top 4.

 

[hey shorty]

Incorrect. Turn the clock back a week and he did his job and went part way towards repairing the fractured trust from the Gibbs debacle.

Thankfully he’s replaced that with Gibbs debacle 2.0

He also picked up 39 for a delistee and change.

This thread is hilarious

 

[DJ75]

are you a draft expert?

No I'm not. But I know a fair bit about next years crop of SA talent and there are quite a few I would like to draft this year! I also listen to the people who ARE experts and the talk has all been about the 2018 draft.

 

[Bob Neil]

Let me know if I've done my maths wrong...

2017 Pick 10 - 1329
2017 Pick 16 - 1067
2017 Pick 73 - 9
2018 2nd Round (ADE)* - 563
TOTAL - 2968

2017 Pick 77 - 0
2018 2nd Round (CAR)** - 845
2018 3rd Round (CAR)** - 429
TOTAL - 1274

Gibbs - 1694 (~Pick 7 & Pick 69)

*Assumes ADE finish 4th
**Assumes CAR finish 15th

PS Play around with different scenarios for where ADE/CAR finish next year and/or apply a discount/premium to pick values for this year versus next year.

 

[Hodgy]

After thinking about it. If we don’t rate the 2017 Draft crop, loading up for 2018 makes this a good deal. I’m sure they know what they’re doing.

Only downside is SOS wins bragging rights after getting his 2 firsts. Even if they end up being meh players.

He'll trade them both for a GWS reject this afternoon anyway.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

This deal is only bad if you don't bother to read all of it and see where the pieces lay.

 

[hey shorty]

Mate we aren’t going one better next year you know that!
We will start the season weaker than this year and that’s fact.
Harder draw, mentally fragile team who WILL NOT make top 4.

How is that fact ?? Our R1 team should be stronger than our GF team.

 

[DJ75]

He also picked up 39 for a delistee and change.

This thread is hilarious

A pick that will basically become Edwards. We actually swapped Wigg for Edwards. Happy with that!

 

[Donkey Magoo]

For all the haters.

 

[Sanders]

This deal is virtually #10 on its own

IF

And it’s an IF

We can get 12 for Cameron, that means we have more or less traded Cameron straight up for Gibbs

Let that sink in

Cameron & change for Gibbs

Unless I’m missing something I’d call that A+ for Reid

 

[MRB37]

A bit or perspective. According to my information Carlton wanted 2 first rounders and a player (McGovern) last year.

Yes. Their opening demand was Sloane and 2 1st rounders.

 

[Bonkers000]

We don't know the numbers next year

Take an educated guess

 

[Hodgy]

Let me know if I've done my maths wrong...

2017 Pick 10 - 1329
2017 Pick 16 - 1067
2017 Pick 73 - 9
2018 2nd Round (ADE)* - 563
TOTAL - 2968

2017 Pick 77 - 0
2018 2nd Round (CAR)** - 845
2018 3rd Round (CAR)** - 429
TOTAL - 1274

Gibbs - 1694 (~Pick 7 & Pick 69)

*Assumes ADE finish 4th
**Assumes CAR finish 15th

That's right, good analysis. Doesn't take strength of draft into account though.
End of the day it's basically pick 10 for Gibbs.

 

[MRB37]

This deal is virtually #10 on its own

IF

And it’s an IF

We can get 12 for Cameron, that means we have more or less traded Cameron straight up for Gibbs

Let that sink in

Cameron & change for Gibbs

Unless I’m missing something I’d call that A+ for Reid

And improved our picks in 2018 too.

 

[GreyCrow]

In the end, I think it's a fairly even trade.

Our 2nd next year will be close to pick 16 (really a pick swap)
Our 3rd next year will be close to your 2nd next year (really a pick swap, could be pick 39 for 36)

So it's pick 10 and some swaps for Gibbs

Have you got a bridge for sale?

 

[God IsThatYou]

trade was fair(ish). seems like a well nutted out trade that allows SOS to beat his chest and for us to digest things slowly during each of Gibbs performances next year. Hes a year older, but we are an AA half back short. balances things out. run with the pick numbers and its not that bad, however i can see the pain other posters feel, especially considering the things we have been able to achieve with late picks.

how we use him now is critical. need some leadership across the half back and in the guts.

Maybe enough time for a player or 2 to come in?

This trade period has been a pass for mine, if objective based. we wanted all in, and shit to get done, some may ask why the **** gibbs, but its what getting shit done looks like to the AFC.

 

[latinoheat]

How the **** do you know?
How do you know where Carlton finishes next year?
How do you know where we finish next year?
Everyone is a ******* expert on here!

This!! Say we finish below Carlton next year. I’d like to see the people who think this is a good deal. This is a horrid deal. New laughing stock we are

 

[dogs105]

10, 16, 35, 73

For

Gibbs, 22, 38,77

It’s really 10 + slight down grade on 2017 first to 2018 second. If draft quality is to be believed 22 in 2018 worth more than 16 in 2017

In effect pick 10 for Gibbs straight up or maybe even a bit less than 10

What happened to the Sanders who says that "next years draft is always better than this years"?

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Mate we aren’t going one better next year you know that!
We will start the season weaker than this year and that’s fact.
Harder draw, mentally fragile team who WILL NOT make top 4.

Harder Draw, We started with GWS, Hawthorn, Port and Ess. 3 top 8 sides and the Hawks at the G

 

[cmndstab]

Assuming we end up trading Cameron for 19, our trade period looks like this:

Out: Lever, Cameron, Wigg, Pick 16, Pick 35, 2018 2nd, Pick 54, 2018 3rd
In: Gibbs, 2018 1st (Melbourne), Pick 19, 2018 2nd (Carlton), Pick 39, 2018 3rd (Carlton), 2018 4th (Melbourne), Pick 73

Eight commodities in, eight commidities out. Lining them up:

Lever -> Gibbs (loss but we improve in an area of need)
Cameron -> 2018 1st (Melbourne) (win)
Wigg -> Pick 19 (major win)
Pick 16 -> 2018 2nd (Carlton) (if Carlton finish low and 2018 is stronger than this year, potentially a win)
Pick 35 -> Pick 39 (minor loss)
2018 2nd -> 2018 3rd (Carlton) (minor loss)
Pick 54 -> 2018 4th Melbourne (minor loss)
2018 3rd -> Pick 73 (minor loss)

In my mind it all depends on how you view Lever vs Gibbs. If you view them as an even exchange, then our trade week is effectively a win on the bigger commodities, for what amounts to small pick downgrades on late picks.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Mate we aren’t going one better next year you know that!
We will start the season weaker than this year and that’s fact.
Harder draw, mentally fragile team who WILL NOT make top 4.

Harder Draw, We started with GWS, Hawthorn, Port and Ess. 3 top 8 sides and the Hawks at the G

 

[Golumless]

Mate we aren’t going one better next year you know that!
We will start the season weaker than this year and that’s fact.
Harder draw, mentally fragile team who WILL NOT make top 4.

Take a breath and read. I said top 4 which is certainly not going one step better, and is currently the pass mark for the regular season for us. Even despite our grand final i'm more then confident we'll be in the 4 come the end of next season.

Equally our draw doesn't get harder as we were in the top 6 in 2016. It remains at the same difficulty.

 

[Murray2503]

This has got rob chapman's imprint all over it. You can ****off too.