List Mgmt. Gibbs - 2017 Trade Discussions! V2.0

[GROTTO]

By the Crows giving up their 2017 1sts, its obvious imo they are going after the Lions 2018 1st for Cameron and dont rate the 2017 draft.

When you consider the success we have had in recruiting, if this is rate its a brilliant shrewd strategy.

If we can grab the Lions 1st 2018 for Cameron and our 2018 1st, its a big trade win.

 

[Large 1]

Nah we paid #10 flat (ish) once you unwind it all

Not really. It's about a mid third round pick short on points.

Either way it is a poor outcome. Pick 10 plus is a VERY poor outcome.

 

[BACCS]

got to the grand final without a top 10 pick and people are upset with the list management?

come on

These are the type of melts warranted if we had missed the finals and were desperate to get back into contention.

 

[big78sam]

So basically we paid 2x1st for Gibbs

No we did not! Carltons 2nd next year is equivalent to pick 16 this year, I'd say even more valuable in a strong draft. You can cancel them out. Our second for their third is a few pick upgrade. The deal is basically 10 plus steak knives.

 

[hey shorty]

Also shows they really didn’t believe in organic growth last year and were surprised, otherwise they would have gone all out in 2017.

They believed in it, but realise that it wasn't enough.

We go to the draft next year

 

[Squiba]

PICKS 10 & 16
'14: Cockatoo & Durdin
'13: Freeman & Lang
'12: Daniher (FS) & Thurlow
'11: L.Sumner & Sheridan
'10: Gorringe & B.Jacobs

This makes me feel better.

Although an assemblage of spud talent scouts seem to have had those picks from 2010-2014. Give Ogilvie the pick and... Dangerfield.

 

[GROTTO]

PICKS 10 & 16
'14: Cockatoo & Durdin
'13: Freeman & Lang
'12: Daniher (FS) & Thurlow
'11: L.Sumner & Sheridan
'10: Gorringe & B.Jacobs

Thats massive when you consider everything.

Should be quoted everytime a Carlton poster comes in here.

 

[RudyBlue]

Sad to see Gibbsy go, but it's done now.

I honestly believe he'll be one of your best for the next few years.

 

[hey shorty]

That's not so bad.

People don't want to look into too much depth they just want to melt.

 

[Bob Neil]

Well yeah, that's a simplistic point of view, if you ignore how much changed in 2017 and we played off in a GF. They are clearly building themselves for the 2018 draft, which when you're contending is a perfectly reasonable way to go.

Now of course a year ago the future was unknown, but surely the strong results we got should not have been an unlikely scenario - indeed finishing top 4 in 2017 and being a contender should have been their base case (it was the whole point of looking at Gibbs in the first place). Did circumstances really change that much to necessitate paying the same/higher price a year down the track for an asset that is worth 15-25% less (depending on your view's about Gibbs' expected longevity). In fact you could say by not paying up last year they negatively impacted our 2017 chances and have now sold the farm so it's a lose-lose.

 

[Wood_Duck]

Also shows they really didn’t believe in organic growth last year and were surprised, otherwise they would have gone all out in 2017.

What else do you say?

 

[xazos79]

I'll hold off until final details are confirmed, but if the reports of the deal details are correct that is mind bogglingly bad from us for a 29 year old...

He's 28 1/2 now.

 

[Elite Crow]

For someone so critical of the club never making bold decisions, your stance on this is very surprising.

It’s a year late!!!! Last year we said it was too much and a year later it’s ok? Not surprised you are swallowing it.

 

[Elite Crow]

What else do you say?

We ****ed up

 

[relapse]

Club release says " better value deal than last year's offer"

Carlton must have asked for 3 1sts

Cognitive dissonance

 

[Murray2503]

Why didnt we throw in sloane as well just to ensure we got our man? This for a ****ing 29 year old start of next year. New low.

 

[GROTTO]

We just need Carlton to Carltank next year to reap the rewards of their 2nd draft pick and we have helped facilitate that process by decimating their midfield in 2018.

Could this be a masterstroke?

 

[cmndstab]

Not really. It's about a mid third round pick short on points.

Either way it is a poor outcome. Pick 10 plus is a VERY poor outcome.

A third round pick is nothing. If we got Gibbs for 10 + 3rd round pick and no other exchanges were made I'd have been happy.

This feels like a lot, but as others have pointed out, it's a reasonable trade if:

1) We don't rate this draft as highly as next year
2) Carlton finish near the bottom of the ladder in 2018 and we finish near the top
3) Gibbs plays well for the full four years of his contract (or however many years before we win a premiership)

Those three ifs could well happen.

 

[DJ75]

you should be a politician

Am I wrong?

 

[Squiba]

The positive in this, is that we:
A) Have a break in top level talent development, allowing our current first rounders in the SANFL more game time/opportunity.
B) We may stack the 2018 draft and try and get a core of 3+ elite South Australian prospects to build around.
C)We are balls deep for the 2018 flag. Really it is anyone's for the taking, but we just significantly improved our midfield depth.

 

[TrainRoo32]

No we did not! Carltons 2nd next year is equivalent to pick 16 this year, I'd say even more valuable in a strong draft. You can cancel them out. Our second for their third is a few pick upgrade. The deal is basically 10 plus steak knives.

How the **** do you know?
How do you know where Carlton finishes next year?
How do you know where we finish next year?
Everyone is a ****ing expert on here!

 

[DD#23]

It’s really 10 + slight down grade on 2017 first to 2018 second. If draft quality is to be believed 22 in 2018 worth more than 16 in 2017

In effect pick 10 for Gibbs straight up or maybe even a bit less than 10

not too long ago you yourself were spruiking the fact that "next year's draft" is fools gold at the end of a rainbow.

 

[Aaron929]

So most likely it looks something like this;

ADE
OUT: Pick 10 (2017), Pick 16 (2017), Pick 30-35 (2018)
IN: Gibbs, Pick 20-25 (2018), Pick 36-40 (2018)

The 4th round picks mean nothing.

So effectively, ONE first round pick, ONE down grade of 4-9 picks (but in a stronger draft so effectively equal i.e. pick 16 2017 = pick 20-25 2018) and one down grade of 1- 5 picks (again stronger draft so actually an upgrade i.e. Pick 36-40 2018 > Pick 30-35 2017).

On the overall basis we are in fact giving up one first round pick. The rest of the deal balances out nicely.

Actually a pretty good deal.

Thankyou for writing this! Saves me doing it for someone with 2 years left on a contract this honestly isn't that bad.

 

[Grenville]

We’re betting big on next years draft

Feel good about it? Seems like the right move to me with high quality SA talent there.

 

[rezagun]

THURSDAY MORNING.