Red_and_white
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Id say the AFLs decision to go to the Gold Coast was more influenced by the NRL expanding there again than the reverse. The Gold Coast was far and away the best bid submitted and the best choice the NRL could have made.
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Expansion Gold Coast issue a knee jerk reaction to inevitable A-League expansion ?
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Brisbane peak of 33,000 in 2003/2004 represtents 320% growth since 1995's average of just over 10000
If Brisbane attendence can remain stable at 28,000, where it has been at for the last two years it would represent a 64% increase since 1998.
1998 was a bad year for the Lions using the average from 1997-1999 give a 44% growth over 10 years.
Sydney is a more complex
Their average home Crowd in 1994 was stable at just 10,000 when they had finish 15th (out of 15) 3 years running. In 1995 it increased 60% to 15,000 where Swans finished 12th. 1996 saw an 70% increase in crowd in the year the swan lost the grand Final.
Crowds then peaked at an average of 36,600 in 1997, 360% increase in just 3 years but only 44% higher then their previous peak in 1986 when the Swans played finals for the first. Which is strangley exactly the same amount growth over the same amount of time as brisbane
After 1997 Swans performance went down so did the crowds it bottomed
out at 25,000 in 2000. 30% below the peak 97 but 250% higher than previous low of 92-94 and equal to the peak of 86.
The Crowds have grown even year since and the Swans achieved a new high in 36,900. 48% growth since 2000. This is even more remarkable when you consider the limited capacity of the SCG this year where the average crowd was below 25,200 the lowest, with the exception of 2000, since 1995
In Conclusion the growth in Brisbane and Sydney of the AFL and has been subistanial and sustained. As far as i can tell using all evidence i have avaible the is no reason why these trends will not contiue. In 10 years time I predict the Brisbane will be selling out the gabba every week and Sydney will play most if not all games at Telstra Stadium.
Valleys FC 4Ever
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Contracts mean that will will only be one team in Melbourne for the first five years of the A-League. ATM signs seem to be pointing towards a north QLD team (apparently it's the most advanced bid) and a GC team.
Exactly. To think the NRL put a team on the Gold Coast because the AFL were thinking about it is ludicrous. The AFL has knocked back Southport for years so obviously the AFL werent even contemplating a Gold Coast team.
The NRL took the initiative and included another team in a region that is obviously rugby mad.
you could also go the other way and say that Melbourne Victory may become so big that they kill a few of the poorer AFL clubs off.
Why do the paraniod amongst us continue to see the A-League as an issue?
It's played in summer for God's sake.
Many of the people following the A-League through the warmer months are more than likely the same people you'll find at AFL or NRL games during winter.
Vlads need for the Gold Coast has nothing to do with Soccer. It's a mixture of seeing a recently bare market being rapidly soaked up by the Titans and his desire to rationalise the Melbourne market.
One thing that is true in the thread title though is the knee-jerk reaction. The Titans were set up through years and years of ground work and heavy community consultation. That's why they are a raving success. If Vlad had any brains he'd be patient and follow a similar process. With Vlad steering the ship, any venture to the Coast is destined to fail miserably.
It's played in summer for God's sake.
Many of the people following the A-League through the warmer months are more than likely the same people you'll find at AFL or NRL games during winter.
Vlads need for the Gold Coast has nothing to do with Soccer. It's a mixture of seeing a recently bare market being rapidly soaked up by the Titans and his desire to rationalise the Melbourne market.
One thing that is true in the thread title though is the knee-jerk reaction. The Titans were set up through years and years of ground work and heavy community consultation. That's why they are a raving success. If Vlad had any brains he'd be patient and follow a similar process. With Vlad steering the ship, any venture to the Coast is destined to fail miserably.
The A-League season may be extended into AFL/NRL season eventually. Plus having a pre-season with matches against big clubs may lead to loyalties being conflicted between the AFL/NRL and soccer. MV are playing Asian Champions League matches next March, April and May. This could have an effect on the AFL.
Has anyone actually gone to a Roar game?
I've got a mate that plays for them and another in the squad, I swear I get more recognition out and round town then them
I shudder to think if the A-League split that market in 2...
A-League seems to generate more hype in-season than the Brisbane Lions do?
Agree with this. Without seeing any junior figures and just going by my own observations, this is happening in Tasmanian schools everywhere.
Im going to have to totally disagree with the idea that Tasmania is turning into a soccer state.
Percentage wise it is the strongest football state in Australia. Which means it would be quite easy for other codes to gain a small amount of people.
All the kids follow AFL there, of course they would have followed the soccer world cup, just like i did when i went to school there. Of course they would idolise the socceroos, but the vast majority would rather their team win the premiership then watch the socceroos.
Tasmania has been rejected as a place for an AFL team for ages, becuase it doesnt yet have a strong enough population. If AFL is only just looking at the area, then for the a-league to be looking at getting a team their before the AFL is honestly laughable.
Oh and in Tasmania, pretty much all young kids play soccer when they are young (this has been case for ages), but as they get older they switch to football, and other sports.
In all honesty i reckon the a-league will get to the goldcoast first, but if the AFL puts a team their as well, and as you have all been saying, that there would be about 5 different sports competing. This will dilute the dollar alot meaning that the soccer team would really struggle to survive as they have nowhere near as much money as the AFL, and not as much as nrl.
As for western sydney, i dont really know much about that, but i doubt the AFL will look at that for at least 5 more years.
If the AFL plays its cards right it will pretty much annilhate soccer and NRL.
If the a-league plays its cards right it will become a force in Australian sport.
If the NRL plays its cards right, it become a force in Australian sport, and annhilate the lions
Percentage wise it is the strongest football state in Australia. Which means it would be quite easy for other codes to gain a small amount of people.
All the kids follow AFL there, of course they would have followed the soccer world cup, just like i did when i went to school there. Of course they would idolise the socceroos, but the vast majority would rather their team win the premiership then watch the socceroos.
Tasmania has been rejected as a place for an AFL team for ages, becuase it doesnt yet have a strong enough population. If AFL is only just looking at the area, then for the a-league to be looking at getting a team their before the AFL is honestly laughable.
Oh and in Tasmania, pretty much all young kids play soccer when they are young (this has been case for ages), but as they get older they switch to football, and other sports.
In all honesty i reckon the a-league will get to the goldcoast first, but if the AFL puts a team their as well, and as you have all been saying, that there would be about 5 different sports competing. This will dilute the dollar alot meaning that the soccer team would really struggle to survive as they have nowhere near as much money as the AFL, and not as much as nrl.
As for western sydney, i dont really know much about that, but i doubt the AFL will look at that for at least 5 more years.
If the AFL plays its cards right it will pretty much annilhate soccer and NRL.
If the a-league plays its cards right it will become a force in Australian sport.
If the NRL plays its cards right, it become a force in Australian sport, and annhilate the lions
I think that is way too simple a view to take. Unfortunately it will not be down the simply the AFL. It will be down to money and whether the game is profitable. With 4 codes all competing for the one market, the most profitable ones will survive. And the AFL is the most financially draining. Greater salary cap, more players per side, more umpires per game, much larger venues that will have to be shared etc. In Melbourne it is profitable because they can get 80k+ to games twice a weekend if they want and at least 35k for every other game. That is not going to happen up there. If the weak Victorian clubs fold or move they make it so much harder for non AFL markets to raise the money and compete against the other states, specially when the new stronger Victorian sides want to raise or remove the salary cap. The A-League can get its support from other areas including the international matches. It has much smaller needs per side so can compete in just about any market.
As for AFL growth, it is also pretty much finished. There are no more modern venues to play at. Name any other modern venue that is big enough to hold AFL games, that is seated, has lights etc. They will be all cricket fields. This will prevent expansion.
- Banned
- #61
wanna bet ?
Cricket grounds and Footy grounds are the same thing.
I fail to see how that could halt expansion.
They are the same thing and as I said, tell me where there is a decent modern cricket ground with lights and seating and facilities to support a crowd of more than 20k? There are venues to play, sure. But an AFL side needs quite a few million dollars, to put a side on the field. To get that money back they need decent venues to play, corporate areas and the like. To spread anywhere the AFL will have to develop a new stadium for any new team. The Gold Coast is the same, they have to develop Carrara to bring it up to scratch. Manuka in Canberra is a less than 20k stadium. If they want to put a team there they'd have to fork out money on the venue. Compare Manuka to Bruce Stadium in Canberra and Manuka is like going to watch decent country football.
Imagine this also. A cricket world cup, or 20/20 world cup in Australia that crossed over the AFL season. With the game of cricket growing also having a 20/20 league playing longer seasons is a serious possibility. Where would the Lions play? There is no back up venue in QLD, except Carrara for the Lions to play. Even in Melbourne, Carltons Princes Park is the only other venue for AFL to play other than the G and the dome.
Why do you think the pre-season games get shipped of to the country? because the AFL want to develop the games there? Sure they do, but its also because of the lack of venues in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane during cricket season.
Red_and_white
Senior List
Arachnix, you are proving to be a true thinker with a common-sensical brain. I admire your work.
The truth is that the more you look into it, the more you realise that the AFL has outgrown the vessels that support it. It will get harder and harder to introduce new teams over the years as club operating costs continue to climb. I'm not saying teams won't be introduced/relocated, because the AFL at the moment has a 'kill-or-be-killed' attitude and would loathe to give up prime real estate to any other code. But as it stands, the AFL will have to really commit to any relocation/introduction if the new club is to have any chance of survival, so long as the AFL continues with this policy of 'expand into new territories'. It is just too hard now.
Unfortunately the code with real growth potential is the NRL.
Its Grand Final TV ratings beat the AFL this year just in Australia, without taking into account its audience in New Zealand or in other countries such as the UK, so its TV income should at least equal that of the AFL by the time of the next TV negotiations.
It did that without having teams in Adelaide and Perth, while it also, if it played its cards right, would be able to expand into the major cities of New Zealand, apart from Auckland, where it already has a team.
And its cost base is much lower than the AFL.
Fortunately the people who run Rugby League are complete boofheads who have shown themselves to be consistently unable to take advantage of the opportunities that are presented to them.
If they ever get their act together, which may include one or two rule changes to make the game more watchable, they could become a very big sport.
As for soccer, it's so bloody un-Australian!
Its Grand Final TV ratings beat the AFL this year just in Australia, without taking into account its audience in New Zealand or in other countries such as the UK, so its TV income should at least equal that of the AFL by the time of the next TV negotiations.
It did that without having teams in Adelaide and Perth, while it also, if it played its cards right, would be able to expand into the major cities of New Zealand, apart from Auckland, where it already has a team.
And its cost base is much lower than the AFL.
Fortunately the people who run Rugby League are complete boofheads who have shown themselves to be consistently unable to take advantage of the opportunities that are presented to them.
If they ever get their act together, which may include one or two rule changes to make the game more watchable, they could become a very big sport.
As for soccer, it's so bloody un-Australian!
- Thread starter
- #67
You are seriously deluded if you think that the NRL can expand much further in NZ. The NRL would have just as much trouble expanding in New Zealand as the AFL would expanding in the Gold Coast. There just isn't the support there and there are very few players compared to union. You just have to look at the recent 58-0 drubbing in front of just 16,681 fans in Wellington. If it can't even draw a decent crowd for an international outside of Auckland, what chance does a club have in a 25 round home and away competition.
With many NRL clubs also in trouble, I doubt it can expand without bleeding in the near future. Their best best is to consolidate their followings in Melbourne and Queensland.
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Its a knee jerk reaction to disappearing Brisbane Lions membership.
The way things stand at the moment, the AFL has far more chance of expanding into the Gold Coast, and will expand there, than the NRL has of expanding in New Zealand. That is undoubted.
What will drive expansion, in the long term however, is TV audiences and TV contracts.
Rugby union's Super 14 faces trouble because its audiences have been disappointing, and New Zealand rugby union is likely to lose many of its best players to England and France, which doesn't bode well for that code, and for its next TV contract, which I think runs from 2010..
In the circumstances that could create opportunities for the NRL in New Zealand, but I agree that the NRL probably isn't sharp enough to take them.
The point I was making was that more expansion is more difficult for the AFL than, in theory, it is for the NRL, but rugby league has traditionally been much more badly run than the AFL.
- Thread starter
- #71
So what is your point ?
Football Park in Adelaide was built as a dedicated footy stadium, as was Kardinia Park in Geelong, Marrara Oval in Darwin, Traeger Park in Alice Springs and Aurora Stadium in Launceston. Where there is a will, there is a way.
They are even building a cricket/footy oval in Florida in the USA FFS. Nothing is impossible.
And has this stopped the NRL from expanding - No.
They put teams in Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne.
Do rectangular stadiums cost less to build ? Probably fractionally, but you'll find that governments will pump the dollars in if a team is successful. Do you know what the Gabba looked like 20 years ago. I do.
The AFL has a huge number of cricket fields which it could invest in to get some great stadiums.
- Thread starter
- #72
Absolute dribble. Imbecilic is not a strong enough descriptive for this rubbish.
If you have to ask what my point is, you obviously didn't bloody read my post. Even though your last statement is exactly what I said. Yes there are a large number of cricket grounds, but as you said, the AFL has to invest. Or the government has to invest. That is a lot of money for a lot of grounds. The AFL even had to invest in Homebush stadium so it could support AFL. The NRL doesn't have this trouble - No. There are already stadiums to play in. They don't need to invest. Perth - Members Equity stadium, Adelaide - Hindmarsh, Melbourne - Olympic Park or could have played Bob Jane Stadium. These "stadiums" are a far sight better than a grand stand around a cricket field. Thats my point mate, even though you made it as well. And sure a cricket field in Florida. The fact they have to make one in the USA and there is a lack of existing fields is also my point. It's not that they can't, it's that they aren't exactly ready made. It costs a hell of a lot of money to invest in facilities.
- Thread starter
- #75
Looks like I wasn't just barking up the wrong tree afterall ...
this is the end my friend.
the AFL should do to the Gold Coast what they did with Canberra and West Sydney - hop away with its tail between its legs.
They had a perfect opportunity in 2004, but they blew it because of their Melbourne-centric socialistic tendencies.
For those who don't get it, forget about money, TV or attendances, the A-League is a direct threat to the AFL's approach of growing the sport through the grassroots - the exact strategy that they are spending multi-millions on in both the Gold Coast and Western Sydney and which has been moderately successful.
With pathways to professional soccer careers in Australia and overseas, Gold Coast mums and kids will prefer to send their kids to play soccer than our rough and tumble game. Pure and simple. The AFL will have to spend millions more to get the kids play it in the hope that they will someday want to watch it. These kids will be playing and watching the soccer instead.
This not only threatens the AFL in the Gold Coast but also Townsville, a fast growing city where Aussie Rules has been growing strongly at the grassroots in recent years and has recently seen a small stadium built.
See if the AFL responds to this one with fast-tracking the Gold Coast Sharks licence.
And mark my words - there will be an increase in pre-season AFL games and community camps played in Townsville as early as next year.
this is the end my friend.
the AFL should do to the Gold Coast what they did with Canberra and West Sydney - hop away with its tail between its legs.
They had a perfect opportunity in 2004, but they blew it because of their Melbourne-centric socialistic tendencies.
For those who don't get it, forget about money, TV or attendances, the A-League is a direct threat to the AFL's approach of growing the sport through the grassroots - the exact strategy that they are spending multi-millions on in both the Gold Coast and Western Sydney and which has been moderately successful.
With pathways to professional soccer careers in Australia and overseas, Gold Coast mums and kids will prefer to send their kids to play soccer than our rough and tumble game. Pure and simple. The AFL will have to spend millions more to get the kids play it in the hope that they will someday want to watch it. These kids will be playing and watching the soccer instead.
This not only threatens the AFL in the Gold Coast but also Townsville, a fast growing city where Aussie Rules has been growing strongly at the grassroots in recent years and has recently seen a small stadium built.
See if the AFL responds to this one with fast-tracking the Gold Coast Sharks licence.
And mark my words - there will be an increase in pre-season AFL games and community camps played in Townsville as early as next year.
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