Growth of other sports impacting on AFL participation and talent

[hamohawk1]

On the back of seeing the Boomers achieve a bronze medal last night and the massive rise in interest in the NBA in the past 5-10 years I feel basketball is in for a renaissance similar to the early mid 90's. One thing Basketball has on its side is that although the NBA pays big $$$ there are multiple pathways and leagues where you can make a sizeable pay packet, as well as getting the opportunity to represent your country at the big stage.


Felt soccer had a similar opportunity post 06 world cup but the administration never seemed to sustain long term maximum impact.


I see basketball as the biggest threat to AFL, but it could easily be another sport should Australia hit the big time. Dare i say it, that we may be speaking about the next Scott Pendlebury

10

Scott Pendlebury

Age

36

Ht

191cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

26.5

5star

K

13.2

5star

HB

13.3

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.9

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

12.9

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

CL

3.6

4star

D

12.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.8

4star

M

5.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

that played AFL growing up but chose basketball???

 

[kaypee]

Nah, basketball and footy are complimentary. And few basketballers under 190cm can make it. Plus most of the leagues around the world are rinky dink, have small rosters and have the whole world trying to get a spot.

 

[Fire]

No the NBL will always be a feeder for the AFL. Any sport which has a higher paying league overseas will never dominate.

Those not good enough for the NBA will filter to the AFL, and those not good enough for either will get a part time job to support an NBL career.

Any threat to AFL will be in the form of esports in the coming generations, and not having a AAA computer game associated with it. That, or the AFL implodes on itself at some point, like we've seen from every other major code in Aus. Could be player driven.

 

[Kappa]

No sport in Australia will ever dominate whilst the best leagues for that sport are in another country. NBL and a league will never go mainstream as it’s so much better to watch nba or epl and the accessibility of these top leagues is only going to grow.

 

[Professor Knowall]

No the NBL will always be a feeder for the AFL. Any sport which has a higher paying league overseas will never dominate.

Those not good enough for the NBA will filter to the AFL, and those not good enough for either will get a part time job to support an NBL career. ...

That's exactly right - and it's already the case now - just look at the Collingwood list with Scott Pendlebury, Jack Madgen, Tim Wilson and Jay Rantall - all either not tall enough or not fast enough (or both) for the NBA - and have chosen a much higher paying AFL career over the NBL.

If you're not exceptionally tall and skillled or in the case of a point-guard, exceptionally fast and skilled, one won't make the NBA - and the AFL pays way better than the NBL.

 

[Kwality]

Paddy Mills is if one who could have played AFL footy at the highest level.
Kyle Chalmers chose swimming over footy.
We see talented sportsmen opting for cricket over footy, and purely in terms of numbers an AFL path is the soft option.

Competitions like NBL & the A League are stepping stones for elite international competiton, AFL is top of the pyramid for sportsmen who choose that path.

All individual sports have a pathway that peaks overseas. In the 50s, Ken McGregor

Ken Mcgregor

Age

43

Ht

195cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

4.2

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.3

3star

G

0.8

4star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

0.4

3star

G

1.0

4star

played Davis Cup, won an Australian singles title & multiple doubles titles with Frank Sedgeman including Wimbledon & a grand slam in 1951.
After his retirement from tennis at the age of 25 he returned to Australian rules football and played five seasons for West Adelaide in the SANFL.(his son played AFL footy & his father won 2 x Magarey Medals in an outstanding SANFL career)

In his 1979 autobiography Jack Kramer, the long-time tennis promoter and great player himself who brought McGregor into professional tennis, wrote that "McGregor was one of the weakest players but one of the nicest guys who ever played for me in the pros. As nearly as I could tell, all he wanted to do was save up some money, go back Down Under and play Australian-rules football, which in fact, he played better than he did tennis. And that's what he did."

Ken McGregor - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There can be little doubt sportsmen do not always see AFL footy in their dreams.

 

[RedV3x]

This is really a misplaced thread and relevant possibly only last century.
Australian Rules Football is one of the few sports that has increased participation with most sports experiencing declines.
Basketball reached it's peak some time ago and has probably only pinched a few potential ruckmen.
Soccer is in the worst state it has been for a very long time.
You could say that rugby union is in crisis and rugby league is rudderless.
If it wasn't for T20 then cricket would be dead.
Even Netball isn't without it's problems.

Australian Rules Football is a great product so it will take an even better product to displace it
and I don't see that from the current crop of sports.

 

[Kwality]

This is really a misplaced thread and relevant possibly only last century.
Australian Rules Football is one of the few sports that has increased participation with most sports experiencing declines.
Basketball reached it's peak some time ago and has probably only pinched a few potential ruckmen.
Soccer is in the worst state it has been for a very long time.
You could say that rugby union is in crisis and rugby league is rudderless.
If it wasn't for T20 then cricket would be dead.
Even Netball isn't without it's problems.

Australian Rules Football is a great product so it will take an even better product to displace it
and I don't see that from the current crop of sports.

The usual mismatch of local & international sport. AFL & NRL are the safe choice when looking at opportunity.

 

[NoobPie]

The usual mismatch of local & international sport. AFL & NRL are the safe choice when looking at opportunity.

Not sure where the mismatch is. Obviously the AFL is nearly always the smart choice if you are talented at multiple sports

I think it is just an old cumedgeon projecting his inferiority complex though in terms of why so many pick football rather than {insert sport here that can be played in other countries}

Collingwood has drafted at least 2 players that I know of in the last few years that represented Australia in cricket (Nathan Murphy) and basketball (Jay Rantall) at under 16/17 level playing overseas. Both of these chose to go into an AFL draft rather than pursue those sports

From memory, Jay and some teammate from the U17 world cup both decided at the cup that were going to go back to concentrating on football to get drafted. Presumably, representing Australia at an U17 world cup would make you a monty to get into a US college program

Nathan Murphy said his choice of the AFL draft rather than cricket was based on the thought of "what excites more"

Neither of these guys may end up having significant careers...or maybe they do. It is pretty clear though that talented kids are picking football because they are drawn to it.....rather than making a "safe" choice. As much opportunity as there is in the AFL, the vast majority of aspirants will not have a full career in it.

 

[Kwality]

Not sure where the mismatch is. Obviously the AFL is nearly always the smart choice if you are talented at multiple sports

I think it is just an old cumedgeon projecting his inferiority complex though in terms of why so many pick football rather than {insert sport here that can be played in other countries}

Collingwood has drafted at least 2 players that I know of in the last few years that represented Australia in cricket (Nathan Murphy) and basketball (Jay Rantall) at under 16/17 level playing overseas. Both of these chose to go into an AFL draft rather than pursue those sports

From memory, Jay and some teammate from the U17 world cup both decided at the cup that were going to go back to concentrating on football to get drafted. Presumably, representing Australia at an U17 world cup would make you a monty to get into a US college program

Nathan Murphy said his choice of the AFL draft rather than cricket was based on the thought of "what excites more"

Neither of these guys may end up having significant careers...or maybe they do. It is pretty clear though that talented kids are picking football because they are drawn to it.....rather than making a "safe" choice. As much opportunity as there is in the AFL, the vast majority of aspirants will not have a full career in it.

I always look at Mitch Marsh & Brad Sheppard, cousins, both played junior cricket & footy for WA. Mitch has made more playing IPL than Shep has had in his 200+ games for the Eagles. Make of that what you will.

Showing my roots I remember Peter Sumich toured England in 1987 with the U19 Australian side playing 3 tests & 3 odi's.

 

[NoobPie]

I always look at Mitch Marsh & Brad Sheppard, cousins, both played junior cricket & footy for WA. Mitch has made more playing IPL than Shep has had in his 200+ games for the Eagles. Make of that what you will.

Showing my roots I remember Peter Sumich toured England in 1987 with the U19 Australian side playing 3 tests & 3 odi's.

I think obsessing over money leads to losing sight over the full value affecting the decisions of kids talented in more than one sport.

Also, Brad Sheppard would have made very good money over his career. He is a very good player but has made the all Australian team once in his career.

 

[Kwality]

I think obsessing over money leads to losing sight over the full value affecting the decisions of kids talented in more than one sport.

Also, Brad Sheppard would have made very good money over his career. He is a very good player but has made the all Australian team once in his career.

Obsessing ? Not sure how you'd measure it.
Marshs cricket career is good but not top notch: why the comparison with his cousin is relevant.

 

[Rob]

Obsessing ? Not sure how you'd measure it.
Marshs cricket career is good but not top notch: why the comparison with his cousin is relevant.

If Brad Sheppard was as good at cricket as he was at footy then he would have been a fringe state player earning next to bugger all.

The comparison isn't with top 10 players, it's with the 100th best player, who in football is on about 600k a year but in cricket is slogging it out at grade level earning literally nothing.

 

[Kwality]

If Brad Sheppard was as good at cricket as he was at footy then he would have been a fringe state player earning next to bugger all.

The comparison isn't with top 10 players, it's with the 100th best player, who in football is on about 600k a year but in cricket is slogging it out at grade level earning literally nothing.

So the comparison is valid ? like with like? The sort of decision made most years.

 

[NoobPie]

Obsessing ? Not sure how you'd measure it.
Marshs cricket career is good but not top notch: why the comparison with his cousin is relevant.

I would measure it by the fact that overwhelmingly dual sport talents pick the AFL

So the comparison is valid ? like with like? The sort of decision made most years.

Pretty sure he is saying the comparison is not valid.

Mitchel Marsh has played at international level for a decade with over 1oo matches across all three forms. In other words he has regularly been in the best 11 in three different forms of cricket over a decade

Brad Sheppard has had 6 top ten finishes in the Eagles B&F with the highest finish third over the last two seasons, and one all Australian. In other words he, he has probably been in the top 200 or so players in the comp for the second half of his career and maybe the top 50 odd for the last couple of years.

You could make a strong argument it is far harder to get to the top 20 of AFL players than cricketers based on competition perhaps but it is still does not wash out as an equal comparison

In terms of money, obviously the money in the AFL is spread more equally than pretty much any other sport (NRL perhaps being closest). For most professional sports, you get more money at the pointy end but the reality is the more money is paid to Australians to play in the AFL than Australians are making in any other sport....and this is true every year.

 

[Kwality]

I would measure it by the fact that overwhelmingly dual sport talents pick the AFL





Pretty sure he is saying the comparison is not valid.

Mitchel Marsh has played at international level for a decade with over 1oo matches across all three forms. In other words he has regularly been in the best 11 in three different forms of cricket over a decade

Brad Sheppard has had 6 top ten finishes in the Eagles B&F with the highest finish third over the last two seasons, and one all Australian. In other words he, he has probably been in the top 200 or so players in the comp for the second half of his career and maybe the top 50 odd for the last couple of years.

You could make a strong argument it is far harder to get to the top 20 of AFL players than cricketers based on competition perhaps but it is still does not wash out as an equal comparison

In terms of money, obviously the money in the AFL is spread more equally than pretty much any other sport (NRL perhaps being closest). For most professional sports, you get more money at the pointy end but the reality is the more money is paid to Australians to play in the AFL than Australians are making in any other sport....and this is true every year.

I compared Sheppards rewards with Marshs IPL earnings, not the balance of his income. Of course the comparison is valid, two people with similar backgrounds, similar prowess in underage sport at the same time.
You could make a similar comparison with Paddy Mills or Mark Taylor, both of whom played in the national U18 comps of their day.

Note that when choosing between AFL footy & any other sport, AFL is a safer choice as there are more spots available, see Alex Keath. Of course you can describe that decision as a preference.

 

[RedV3x]

You could make a similar comparison with....

And it would be pointless.
Cherry-picking comparisons proves absolutely nothing.

 

[Kwality]

And it would be pointless.
Cherry-picking comparisons proves absolutely nothing.

Perhaps you could advise the rules that you choose to apply, if not those who did not go down the AFL path. I'm not denying most kids take the AFL path, its those who dont, thats being discussed.

 

[RedV3x]

Perhaps you could advise the rules that you choose to apply,

Cherry-picking and anecdotal evidence are quite meaningless.
Surely some entity has taken a comprehensive survey.
A meaningful survey would include what and why initial sports were chosen, what and why teenage sports were chosen and what were the influences to continue with a particular sport.
I imagine the responses to the latter include because the person was good at the sport and enjoyed playing the sport.
Financial gain then might come into play.