Club Focus GWS Giants 2021 - Brander, Callaghan, Aleer, Fahey

[LukeParkerno1]

If GWS really arent going to pick Callaghan they should be doing Hawks current first and future first for 2 and 13

I am starting to think their worried Mac Andrew wont be there at Hawks pick 5 with GC Suns a huge worry there

I feel GC are happy to sit on pick 3 and take whoever is available out of Callaghan and Mac

GWS are giving up way too much in that trade. We already have examples where Port gave up around 2500 points to move up 1 spot you’d assume that’s the minimum index. Not sure GWS even have to give up 13. Also not sure the Hawks would trade their future first considering that’s a real gamble and a potential top 3 pick next season

 

[Mr Magic]

GWS are giving up way too much in that trade. We already have examples where Port gave up around 2500 points to move up 1 spot you’d assume that’s the minimum index. Not sure GWS even have to give up 13. Also not sure the Hawks would trade their future first considering that’s a real gamble and a potential top 3 pick next season

When did Port give up 2500 points to move one spot?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

When did Port give up 2500 points to move one spot?

Honestly forget what year it was but pretty sure they traded with Freo to get their pick and they gave up a LOT! It takes a Kings ransom to move up in the top echelon of selections.

There’s no way GWS are including their second first rounder in that sort of trade. These are highly skewed towards the club trading down

 

[Colonial]

If GWS really arent going to pick Callaghan they should be doing Hawks current first and future first for 2 and 13

I am starting to think their worried Mac Andrew wont be there at Hawks pick 5 with GC Suns a huge worry there

I feel GC are happy to sit on pick 3 and take whoever is available out of Callaghan and Mac

We aren’t trading pick 2 and 13 for 5 and an unknown. I hope we are smarter than that.
All for 2 for 5 and future 1st.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

We aren’t trading pick 2 and 13 for 5 and an unknown. I hope we are smarter than that.
All for 2 for 5 and future 1st.

This. These trades are ALWAYS highly skewed to the side trading down. Remember what you had to give to get pick 2 Taranto..and there are other examples. The trade you listed is the mark, whether Hawthorn would do it who knows.

 

[Mr Magic]

Honestly forget what year it was but pretty sure they traded with Freo to get their pick and they gave up a LOT! It takes a Kings ransom to move up in the top echelon of selections.

There’s no way GWS are including their second first rounder in that sort of trade. These are highly skewed towards the club trading down

The ransom is dependent on the draftees of each year and how each club rates them. Comparing different draft lists in different years is meaningless

 

[Orange crush]

This is the trade:

Power will receive the Dockers’ first-round pick, currently pick 6, and a future third-round selection in exchange for its current picks 11, 23, 30 and 49.

with Callaghan being sought after GWS should cover a premium

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The ransom is dependent on the draftees of each year and how each club rates them. Comparing different draft lists in different years is meaningless

It gives you a very good idea. I get it “let’s screw GWS” every year is in play heck I wish my club would sometimes but in this case they hold the cards. Hawks want Callahan they have to pay the Kings ransom and it ain’t going to include GWS giving another first back

 

[LukeParkerno1]

This is the trade:

Power will receive the Dockers’ first-round pick, currently pick 6, and a future third-round selection in exchange for its current picks 11, 23, 30 and 49.

with Callaghan being sought after GWS should cover a premium

That’s the one knew it was Port just forgo the details

 

[Keystone agony]

We aren’t trading pick 2 and 13 for 5 and an unknown. I hope we are smarter than that.
All for 2 for 5 and future 1st.

So every future pick is an unknown?

Based on this even current picks sre unknown as to what player will be available and what theyll become

Thats the whole point of trading in most cases. Backing yourself in on the most likely situation. Get some right, get some wrong. The best get more right than wrong

 

[Colonial]

So every future pick is an unknown?

Based on this even current picks sre unknown as to what player will be available and what theyll become

Thats the whole point of trading in most cases. Backing yourself in on the most likely situation. Get some right, get some wrong. The best get more right than wrong

That’s not what I meant and you know it.
We have no idea where the Hawks will finish in 2022. I doubt the Pies thought they would be second last this year.
We definitely shouldn’t trade our 2nd first rounder for a pick that could be anywhere from 1 to 18 ( or more when f/s & academy get taken into account).

pick 2 for 5 and a F1st is fair and reasonable.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

So every future pick is an unknown?

Based on this even current picks sre unknown as to what player will be available and what theyll become

Thats the whole point of trading in most cases. Backing yourself in on the most likely situation. Get some right, get some wrong. The best get more right than wrong

They aren’t including their pick 13 this year and nor should they that would be the major issue with your selection as you are aiming for a “fair” trade when trading up is never fair. Remove the pick 13 and you are closer to the mark with maybe a f3 thrown in

 

[Keystone agony]

That’s not what I meant and you know it.
We have no idea where the Hawks will finish in 2022. I doubt the Pies thought they would be second last this year.
We definitely shouldn’t trade our 2nd first rounder for a pick that could be anywhere from 1 to 18 ( or more when f/s & academy get taken into account).

pick 2 for 5 and a F1st is fair and reasonable.

Based on that you never have any idea where any team will finish. Its about playing the % and backing your own knowledge. If your not prepared to do that than probably shouldnt be in the caper.

Highly doubt hawks would do that

Anyway im beginning to think GWS might be worried about shifting outside of GC suns pick with Mac Andrew likely on the radar

If that becomes more than you need to look at it as 4 + 15 for 7 and F1

 

[Colonial]

Based on that you never have any idea where any team will finish.

Exactly which is why the club wanting pick two pays more. Hense no on the 2nd first rounder.

 

[Mr Magic]

It gives you a very good idea. I get it “let’s screw GWS” every year is in play heck I wish my club would sometimes but in this case they hold the cards. Hawks want Callahan they have to pay the Kings ransom and it ain’t going to include GWS giving another first back

Look Richmond could want Callaghan, most clubs would want him if he is highly rated.

It does not mean sell the farm for it unless he is worth the farm.

Is he worth the farm??

Richmond can just say we keep 7 and 15 and go with who we want there as they are not total rabbits.

Hawks could do likewise because they are looking at a 5 year rebuild minimum anyway and probably longer.

What is different is supposedly GWS want Andrews. If there is truth to it that changes the dynamic?

So GWS can use pick 2 on Callaghan, no worries, not a problem unless they want Andrew, So GWS are going to have to give to get Andrew unless they just select Andrew at 2. No one is stopping GWS selecting Andrew at 2 unless someone is really desperate to get 2 from GWS and use it on CAllaghan are they? I do not think Callaghan is as safe as JHF.

I will be honest, if I was the Hawks I would not give a lot because they are going to be down a lot for a number of years in terms of their shape and their 2022 first should be valuable.

Would Adelaide do it?? Maybe not because they will be down for a while and chasing SA talent as well as trying to lure others home. Still that's 4 to 2

Freo is probably chasing WA talent.

Gold Coast is only going from 3 to 2 so why give up much and does it mean much to them when they lose a lot of talent anyway? I am not even sure who Gold Coast are chasing and they should be focusing on keeping the list together. Does that mean getting another gun or does that mean getting quality in a few positions that solidify the group in terms of their prospects going forward regarding the cohesion and output of their group as a unit going forward, forging the necessary belief the team are coming together as a force

Richmond might do it but how far will Andrew drop before someone selects him? There will be plenty of bluffs to. But RFC could only offer a future first and 7 plus 13 for 15 as best case for GWS because RFC is just as happy staying with 7 and 15. RFC would be nice to haver Callaghan but Callaghan is not Dusty, nor JHF, nor Oliver or Petracca.

Callaghan might end up a gun but with limited exposed form and a lanky look his is not bullet proof and a high end risk is possible. Callaghan will always be a good player at AFL, barring injury, but is he really worth pick 2 in years to come we will have to see.

Its a unusual situation, if I was Adelaide and Hawks I would be looking at trading back not up because I cannot see a lot of difference. Gold Coast, one never knows what they do and what do they want they have so much and already gave up picks for 2022 picks.

With Callaghan, we are really talking pick 3 or 4 in the draft factoring in Daicos and Darcy so he is arguably down a peg from the doozy.

I do not understand why many would go earlier on Andrews given the risk with a prospect type that has a lot of potential versus a type a bit more ready made and easier to forecast, but what do I know? I certainly do not know what each club is thinking

If I was RFC I would not give a lot for Callaghan either except if we really rated him, and given the fact our list is still strong we are not anticipating being cellar dwellers for a few years yet, have to make hay while the sun shines, and it helps our list profile in terms of support for Bolton and Balta.

Having said all this it really depends on how everybody rates the draftees and where they sit in the rankings. If there is a massive gap between 2 and 5 expect more for 2 unless the 5 holder wants to go backwards because the difference between 5 and 11 is not that different. Same with other clubs.

If a club like RFC might rate Callaghan, but might also rate others not so significantly less around 7, they then let sleeping dogs lie because relatively speaking although Callaghan may be projected to be better the difference may not be that much greater

 

[Orange crush]

Look Richmond could want Callaghan, most clubs would want him if he is highly rated.

It does not mean sell the farm for it unless he is worth the farm.

Is he worth the farm??

Richmond can just say we keep 7 and 15 and go with who we want there as they are not total rabbits.

Hawks could do likewise because they are looking at a 5 year rebuild minimum anyway and probably longer.

What is different is supposedly GWS want Andrews. If there is truth to it that changes the dynamic?

So GWS can use pick 2 on Callaghan, no worries, not a problem unless they want Andrew, So GWS are going to have to give to get Andrew unless they just select Andrew at 2. No one is stopping GWS selecting Andrew at 2 unless someone is really desperate to get 2 from GWS and use it on CAllaghan are they? I do not think Callaghan is as safe as JHF.

I will be honest, if I was the Hawks I would not give a lot because they are going to be down a lot for a number of years in terms of their shape and their 2022 first should be valuable.

Would Adelaide do it?? Maybe not because they will be down for a while and chasing SA talent as well as trying to lure others home. Still that's 4 to 2

Freo is probably chasing WA talent.

Gold Coast is only going from 3 to 2 so why give up much and does it mean much to them when they lose a lot of talent anyway?

Richmond might do it but how far will Andrew drop before someone selects him? There will be plenty of bluffs to. But RFC could only offer a future first and 7 plus 13 for 15 as best case for GWS because RFC is just as happy staying with 7 and 15. RFC would be nice to haver Callaghan but Callaghan is not Dusty, nor JHF, nor Oliver or Petracca.

Callaghan might end up a gun but with limited exposed form and a lanky look his is not bullet proof and a high end risk is possible. Callaghan will always be a good player at AFL, barring injury, but is he really worth pick 2 in years to come we will have to see.

Its a unusual situation, if I was Adelaide and Hawks I would be looking at trading back not up because I cannot see a lot of difference. Gold Coast, one never knows what they do and what do they want they have so much and already gave up picks for 2022 picks.

With Callaghan, we are really talking pick 3 or 4 in the draft factoring in Daicos and Darcy so he is arguably down a peg from the doozy.

I do not understand why many would go earlier on Andrews given the risk with a prospect type that has a lot of potential versus a type a bit more ready made and easier to forecast, but what do I know? I certainly do not know what each club is thinking

If I was RFC I would not give a lot for Callaghan either except if we really rated him, and given the fact our list is still strong we are not anticipating being cellar dwellers for a few years yet, have to make hay while the sun shines, and it helps our list profile in terms of support for Bolton and Balta.

Having said all this it really depends on how everybody rates the draftees and where they sit in the rankings. If there is a massive gap between 2 and 5 expect more for 2 unless the 5 holder wants to go backwards because the difference between 5 and 11 is not that different. Same with other clubs.

If a club like RFC might rate Callaghan, but might also rate others not so significantly less around 7, they then let sleeping dogs lie because relatively speaking although Callaghan may be projected to be better the difference may not be that much greater

All good and well, but clubs seem to be looking to move up for Callaghan .... in that case they will need to pay overs.

 

[Mr Magic]

All good and well, but clubs seem to be looking to move up for Callaghan .... in that case they will need to pay overs.

Paying overs and selling the farm are two different things.

The other thing is Gold Coast, Adelaide and Hawks have high picks as it is. If GWS get some of the picks like two Hawks firsts for 2 I would take it and run.

Some think the points system is BS and it depends on how the talent is dispersed in each draft over the draftees but it helps as a fixed separate barometer

 

[Lore]

 

[sydney_gws]

We aren’t trading pick 2 and 13 for 5 and an unknown. I hope we are smarter than that.
All for 2 for 5 and future 1st.

Or hawthorn could trade their 2022r1 for gold coasts 3 2022 second rounders, and pass on 2 of them to us.

 

[VinnieB]

If GWS really arent going to pick Callaghan they should be doing Hawks current first and future first for 2 and 13

I am starting to think there worried Mac Andrew wont be there at Hawks pick 5 with GC Suns a huge worry there

I feel GC are happy to sit on pick 3 and take whoever is available out of Callaghan and Mac

Why wouldn't they just say pick 2 for Hawthorn's pick 5 and 21? GWS are in the box seat. They can take their man at 2 (assuming it's Andrew). Unless there's a compelling offer, why trade it? Clubs like Hawthorn who have pick 5, and really want Callaghan, need to get that pick to have any chance of picking him up. So what's it worth to them?

 

[Keystone agony]

Why wouldn't they just say pick 2 for Hawthorn's pick 5 and 21? GWS are in the box seat. They can take their man at 2 (assuming it's Andrew). Unless there's a compelling offer, why trade it? Clubs like Hawthorn who have pick 5, and really want Callaghan, need to get that pick to have any chance of picking him up. So what's it worth to them?

Exactly that. A compelling offer would be needed

GWS are half wanting to trade it aswell, im not sure if thats as strong anymore. Really if GWS want Andrew they should just take him at 2, there are no guarantees he gets past the suns and even if the suns are bluffing with that, its not worth it

 

[ML4Hodgy]

Why wouldn't they just say pick 2 for Hawthorn's pick 5 and 21? GWS are in the box seat. They can take their man at 2 (assuming it's Andrew). Unless there's a compelling offer, why trade it? Clubs like Hawthorn who have pick 5, and really want Callaghan, need to get that pick to have any chance of picking him up. So what's it worth to them?

The logic of this would be GWS get who they want this draft.
They also get a great position for 2022 draft to get who they want there, probably one of the key forwards. If the hawks 1st is not good enough, they’d likely be able to package up theirs and the hawks to move to where they need to be.
2 drafts, 2 targeted picks at the pointy end addressing the clubs needs.

GWS are at the point that they don’t just need talent in the door, mostly because they’ve got so much midfield talent they’re struggling to fit them in, and shoehorning great players into spots outside of their best positions to fit them into the 22.

Not saying it happens, and maybe 13 is good enough to get who they want so they don’t need to trade, but my money would be on them trading down and strengthening 2022 at the same time.

 

[Tbonefreo]

Have a good weekend

 

[Colonial]

The logic of this would be GWS get who they want this draft.
They also get a great position for 2022 draft to get who they want there, probably one of the key forwards. If the hawks 1st is not good enough, they’d likely be able to package up theirs and the hawks to move to where they need to be.
2 drafts, 2 targeted picks at the pointy end addressing the clubs needs.

GWS are at the point that they don’t just need talent in the door, mostly because they’ve got so much midfield talent they’re struggling to fit them in, and shoehorning great players into spots outside of their best positions to fit them into the 22.

Not saying it happens, and maybe 13 is good enough to get who they want so they don’t need to trade, but my money would be on them trading down and strengthening 2022 at the same time.

Great. We will take 5 and F1st for pick 2 then.
Maybe a 3rd going back

 

[sydney_gws]

Great. We will take 5 and F1st for pick 2 then.
Maybe a 3rd going back

I suggested 2,2022r2,r3 for 5,hawks2022r1.
Their board didn't like it much, not that it matters,
it is the club, not them.
As I said earlier, if hawks can swap 2022r1 for 3
2022r2's With gold coast, they can keep one of them and send 2 our way.
We could get 2 for 5, magpies2022r2,freo2022r2.
Another year if cheering against Collingwood.
Hawthorn have done maybe 4,25 for 7,7 as their trade.