craffles
Brownlow Medallist
Not a real name Dear could be the next Jason Dunstall, Matthew Lloyd, Gordon Coventry or even Matthew Richardson.
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Player Watch Harley Reid isnt leading the rising star so far
- Thread starter Blues90
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- Sep 15, 2011
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Next thing, people will be comparing him to Harley Reid.
- May 5, 2016
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Don’t say things you can’t take back
Strapping Young Lad
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Sure, if you’re unable to do context.
Strapping Young Lad
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- Apr 19, 2006
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You conflated a post about Franklin’s 1st season and Dear’s as being the same as one made by a poster saying he could be the next Wayne Carey. Comprehension fail.Argues unable to do context.
Ignores that the post was in context of being compared to two players.
Then edits a post to misrepresent the context.
Marvellous work
I wouldn’t think I’d need to explain my initial post, but here it is for you in more detail…
Franklin was a highly touted top 5 pick who was almost immediately compared to the great forwards of the time, while Dear was as close to a rookie selection as you can just about get, and has kicked more goals than Franklin in his first year.
Not one mention of Dear being the next Franklin, or even that he’d be as good. Instead, I purely said he’s had an outstanding debut year.
If Harley Reid didn't lose eligibility would he have won the rising star? The raw talent is bleedingly obvious, he also had a few stunning games but I'm just wondering if the weight of numbers (or lack of) over the entire season go against him.
- Jul 13, 2015
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Dyson is though ?
Forgot about Darcy, I'd have him winning by a margin
I didn't say scores, I said shots (although I used to scores for players before Champion Data started recording shots in 2012).
It's true that Cameron registered 3.3 shots per game in first season but only played 7 games, where as Watson has played 15 matches at 3.2 shots per game.
So unless you include Cameron who only played 7 games in his first year, Watson is the first for a small forward since we started recording.
Hogan was the last player, but he wasn't a small forward, 3.5 shots per game in his rookie year and won the Norwich Rising Star and will be this year's Coleman medalist.
Hogan was also 20 in his first season, where as Watson is 19. You also mentioned Milne who averaged 2.7 scores per game (.2 more than Watson) but also debuted at 21 years of age.
Rankine debuted at 19, with 2.6 shots per game, Betts (the most prolific small forward of all time) debuted at 19 and 1.6 scores per game, (averaged 3.7 shots from 2012).
Dual Coleman medalist Curnow, in his first session played only 6 matches and averaged 1.2 shots per game, and the following season he played 20 matches and averaged 1.7 shots per game.
Doesn't matter how you spin it, 2.7 scores per game, or 3.2 shots per game, for a 19 year old in their first season is unprecedented and very impressive, small or tall forward.
If he's not scoring with that proportion of shots maybe he is getting quite a few off in places above his current scoring ability.I didn't say scores, I said shots (although I used to scores for players before Champion Data started recording shots in 2012).
It's true that Cameron registered 3.3 shots per game in first season but only played 7 games, where as Watson has played 15 matches at 3.2 shots per game.
So unless you include Cameron who only played 7 games in his first year, Watson is the first for a small forward since we started recording.
Hogan was the last player, but he wasn't a small forward, 3.5 shots per game in his rookie year and won the Norwich Rising Star and will be this year's Coleman medalist.
Hogan was also 20 in his first season, where as Watson is 19. You also mentioned Milne who averaged 2.7 scores per game (.2 more than Watson) but also debuted at 21 years of age.
Rankine debuted at 19, with 2.6 shots per game, Betts (the most prolific small forward of all time) debuted at 19 and 1.6 scores per game, (averaged 3.7 shots from 2012).
Dual Coleman medalist Curnow, in his first session played only 6 matches and averaged 1.2 shots per game, and the following season he played 20 matches and averaged 1.7 shots per game.
Doesn't matter how you spin it, 2.7 scores per game, or 3.2 shots per game, for a 19 year old in their first season is unprecedented and very impressive, small or tall forward.
Scoring shots I'd say is a better metric as at least they got it somewhere sort of close to the intended target.
Then score involvements that aren't direct shots at goal should be a secondary factor considered, to make sure he is not mostly having a shot at the expense of looking for better options.
One standalone stat can be interpreted so many ways.
- May 5, 2016
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I didn't say scores, I said shots (although I used to scores for players before Champion Data started recording shots in 2012).
It's true that Cameron registered 3.3 shots per game in first season but only played 7 games, where as Watson has played 15 matches at 3.2 shots per game.
So unless you include Cameron who only played 7 games in his first year, Watson is the first for a small forward since we started recording.
Hogan was the last player, but he wasn't a small forward, 3.5 shots per game in his rookie year and won the Norwich Rising Star and will be this year's Coleman medalist.
Hogan was also 20 in his first season, where as Watson is 19. You also mentioned Milne who averaged 2.7 scores per game (.2 more than Watson) but also debuted at 21 years of age.
Rankine debuted at 19, with 2.6 shots per game, Betts (the most prolific small forward of all time) debuted at 19 and 1.6 scores per game, (averaged 3.7 shots from 2012).
Dual Coleman medalist Curnow, in his first session played only 6 matches and averaged 1.2 shots per game, and the following season he played 20 matches and averaged 1.7 shots per game.
Doesn't matter how you spin it, 2.7 scores per game, or 3.2 shots per game, for a 19 year old in their first season is unprecedented and very impressive, small or tall forward.
And I don’t know if it was recorded then but as I said, Milne had almost 3 SCORES per game in his first season. Not shots, scores. So I can only imagine his total shots would be significantly higher. That’s from just looking at the first 3 guys that popped into my head.
He’s done well to be as prolific as he has, but making a very big historic claim like ‘no one has ever done this before’ is the sort of thing that is usually backed up. In this case it’s pretty clear that others have done similar or more.
If you wanted to be a bit of a smart arse you could point to the guy who most people actually think of as the wizard and say well he played 7 games in his first year - but he was only 17 at the time.
In his first full season, when he was 18 - a year younger than the new Wizard - he actually averaged 3.1 scoring shots, not shots on goal, scoring shots, per game, across 19 matches.
I didn't say scores, I said shots (although I used to scores for players before Champion Data started recording shots in 2012).
It's true that Cameron registered 3.3 shots per game in first season but only played 7 games, where as Watson has played 15 matches at 3.2 shots per game.
So unless you include Cameron who only played 7 games in his first year, Watson is the first for a small forward since we started recording.
Hogan was the last player, but he wasn't a small forward, 3.5 shots per game in his rookie year and won the Norwich Rising Star and will be this year's Coleman medalist.
Hogan was also 20 in his first season, where as Watson is 19. You also mentioned Milne who averaged 2.7 scores per game (.2 more than Watson) but also debuted at 21 years of age.
Rankine debuted at 19, with 2.6 shots per game, Betts (the most prolific small forward of all time) debuted at 19 and 1.6 scores per game, (averaged 3.7 shots from 2012).
Dual Coleman medalist Curnow, in his first session played only 6 matches and averaged 1.2 shots per game, and the following season he played 20 matches and averaged 1.7 shots per game.
Doesn't matter how you spin it, 2.7 scores per game, or 3.2 shots per game, for a 19 year old in their first season is unprecedented and very impressive, small or tall forward.
Shots per game. I thought our Hawks friends were past using the cherry picker.
I'm not being a smart arse, you're being a smart arse with all your posts (including another thread where you claimed I said that Geelong didn't best Hawthorn this year at that stupid GMHBA ground)
The wizard in his first season at 17, averaged 1.3 scores per game. But yes he had a great career, anyone else you can think to best Watson?
You don't like measuring forwards in their first season on how many opportunities they create to score for themselves?
Cherry picking stats would be like in the Daicos thread, where posters are enamoured with contester marks comparisons amongst midfielders.
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I didn’t say you were being a smart arse. I meant it as in ‘if you wanted to be’ as in ‘if anyone wanted to be.’
And I literally said that in my post - in his first season at 17 Farmer played 7 games.
In his next, at 18, younger than this Wizard who is 19, he played almost a full season and averaged 3.1 scoring shots a game.
So I think if you’re doing a fair comparison - given that you discounted Cameron because it wasn’t a ‘full season’ then it’s fair to look at Farmer’s first full season especially as he was only 17 when he started and played 7 games.
- Sep 15, 2011
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Probably would have been a close run thing. He had games where he would have got the maximum votes possible, others where he wasn't sighted much. Wouldn't be surprised if his profile would have gotten him over the line though.
HeHateMe
Norm Smith Medallist
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Think Watson might be a smokey and might surprise a few.
Watson has increased his production and accuracy this season, with two outstanding finals.
61 shots for his first season at 19 years of age for a small forward is unprecedented.
Small forwards shots in their first season and (age):
Papley 52 (20)
Higgins 32 (19)
Rankine 31 (20)
Pickett 25 (19)
Cameron 23 (20)
Actually it's a lot for any forward
Hogan 70 (20)
Jeremy Cameron 50 (19)
M.King 48 (20)
B.King 32 (19)
Stringer 22 (19)
Hogan was the last one to have more shots than Watson, and he came as a very developed 17 year old key forward who debuted after two preseasons at Melbourne at age 20.
This stat is important because this tends to be the hardest thing for any forward, let alone a small forward, to produce. All of them come talented but getting opportunities up forward is the hardest thing for a first year player.
It's still hard for players in their successive seasons. Papley is averaging 3.4 shots a game for his career, (the same as Wiz), Rankine 3.1, Higgins 2.7, Pickett 1.8, Stengle at 26 years of age was named in the AA squad and averaged 3.3 shots per game this season.
It's only because of his high inaccuracy at the start of the season, nobody is mentioning this as one of the great first seasons by a player, and yet Watson's second half of the year, he's been very accurate.
