Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?

[RonnieRaven]

Honestly don't remember

 

[slider95]

View attachment 2195211

Mick was clearly still suffering the effects of being on the hard stuff when he was coaching west coast a couple of decades earlier.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Carlton re-sets premiership ambition to win two flags by the end of 2015

CARLTON has re-set its premiership ambitions. In 2011 the club launched a bold strategic plan, which included winning its 17th and 18th flag by the end of 2015. The document, titled "The Blue Print", promised Carlton would be "uncompromising in its pursuit of sustained success". Continued...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Fadge]

Carlton re-sets premiership ambition to win two flags by the end of 2015

CARLTON has re-set its premiership ambitions. In 2011 the club launched a bold strategic plan, which included winning its 17th and 18th flag by the end of 2015. The document, titled "The Blue Print", promised Carlton would be "uncompromising in its pursuit of sustained success". Continued...

www.bigfooty.com

Well they won two more spoons.

Or was it three?

I lost count.

 

[timokane]

Time to level out and mini re build and give it another shot in 3 years time

 

[Fadge]

Time to level out and mini re build and give it another shot in 3 years time

It seems that's what they've chosen to do, by going to the draft instead of bringing in proven, mature players.

Let's hope their stars drink from the same fountain of youth that the Geelong and Collingwood players do, so that they can continue to perform into their 30's...

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It seems that's what they've chosen to do, by going to the draft instead of bringing in proven, mature players.

Let's hope their stars drink from the same fountain of youth that the Geelong and Collingwood players do, so that they can continue to perform into their 30's...

Which of our "stars" are over 30?

 

[Fadge]

Which of our "stars" are over 30?

Read the post I responded to.

Comprehend.

Then reconsider the question you have just asked me...

That's the way on-line discussion forums work.

 

[Robertio]

Read the post I responded to.

Comprehend.

Then reconsider the question you have just asked me...

That's the way on-line discussion forums work.

Looks like you didn't have a simple answer.

 

[WillHayward]

Carlton's spine is interesting. New recruit Nick Haynes is turning 33 next year. Cripps is turning 30 in a few months and McGovern is already 30. Hewett is turning 29 next month. Curnow will be 28 before the start of next season. Weitering and McKay will both be 27 before the end of this year. Lewis Young is turning 26 next month, as is Adam Cerra next year. Sam Walsh is turning 25 next year. Depending on who you want in the ruck, Pittonet is turning 29 next year and Tom De Koning is turning 26. They're essentially all in their peak years right now, with Sam Walsh being arguably a year or two away from his peak. It's worth mentioning other best 22 players like Sam Docherty (31), Nic Newman (31), Adam Saad (30), Zac Williams (30) and Blake Acres (29) are arguably in or past their peak years as well.

Carlton seemingly took a step backwards in 2024 and barely qualified for the finals. So, does it get any better for Carlton from here or did they peak in 2023 when they made a run to the preliminaly final?

I stopped reading at Lewis Young..

But really I think they have two more years to have a crack at a flag.

 

[Mr Meow]

Has this Carlton list already peaked?

 

[Arr0w]

Has this Carlton list already peaked?

No

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Has this Carlton list already peaked?

Yes, round 20 2023

On SM-A225F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mr Meow]

Which Carlton players are you expecting improvement from in 2025?

 

[South of the Yarra]

Carlton’s alleged superstars are part of their problem. Cripps is an absolute champion of the game and Weitering is a gun.The problem for Carlton is that Curnow and McKay are actually liabilities under pressure. Curnow averages 2.4 goals a game (1.0 goal a game in finals) and McKay 2.0 goals a game. That is a 4.4 goals a game between them which is an incredibly low return considering how many times they are kicked to. Curnow average plummets when you consider in the last two years his biggest bags of 10, 9 and 6 have been against WC, WC and Kangas. The good teams have worked out their predictability. The other issue is Walsh causes no damage. Walsh kicked 5 goals this year (2 against Richmond) and has not kicked a goal in the past 9 matches. Incredibly his metres gained is 111 metres less a match than someone like Nick Daicos. It really is Carlton and their two superstars or bust.

 

[Worm4]

Carlton’s alleged superstars are part of their problem. Cripps is an absolute champion of the game and Weitering is a gun.The problem for Carlton is that Curnow and McKay are actually liabilities under pressure. Curnow averages 2.4 goals a game (1.0 goal a game in finals) and McKay 2.0 goals a game. That is a 4.4 goals a game between them which is an incredibly low return considering how many times they are kicked to. Curnow average plummets when you consider in the last two years his biggest bags of 10, 9 and 6 have been against WC, WC and Kangas. The good teams have worked out their predictability. The other issue is Walsh causes no damage. Walsh kicked 5 goals this year (2 against Richmond) and has not kicked a goal in the past 9 matches. Incredibly his metres gained is 111 metres less a match than someone like Nick Daicos. It really is Carlton and their two superstars or bust.

Not sure what output walsh is required to give by way of goals.
What is your expectation here so I can make a comparison with other onballers

 

[carlton_99]

The problem for Carlton is that Curnow and McKay are actually liabilities under pressure. Curnow averages 2.4 goals a game (1.0 goal a game in finals) and McKay 2.0 goals a game. That is a 4.4 goals a game between them which is an incredibly low return considering how many times they are kicked to. Curnow average plummets when you consider in the last two years his biggest bags of 10, 9 and 6 have been against WC, WC and Kangas. The good teams have worked out their predictability.

"The good teams have worked out their predictability" and yet Carlton were the 4th highest scoring team in the competition in the 2024 H+A season. If you don't like points for Carlton also ranked highly in the following offensive areas in 2024:

• Average goal scorers: 8.3 per game (4th in AFL)
• Goals per inside 50: 26.4% (1st in AFL)
• Scoring shots per inside 50: 47.3% (4th in AFL)
• Scores from stoppage: 37.0 points per game (4th in AFL)
• Scores from turnover: 52.0 points per game (4th in AFL)

So clearly Carlton's offense is not predictable or it would have been easily for opposition to stop which they clearly couldn't in 2024.

Another point is that Curnow and McKay kicked 106 goals between them from 42 combined games. Only Cameron/Stengle (110 goals from 49 combined games) and Hogan/Greene (121 goals from 54 combined games) scored more as duos. So not sure how you can say that is a low return. The thing you are also forgetting is the impact those two players have outside of goals. Curnow was 2nd amongst key forwards for score involvements per game with 7.1 and McKay is the best up-the-ground forward in the competition outside of Jeremy Cameron.

The other issue is Walsh causes no damage. Walsh kicked 5 goals this year (2 against Richmond) and has not kicked a goal in the past 9 matches. Incredibly his metres gained is 111 metres less a match than someone like Nick Daicos.

Seems people have forgotten how good Walsh was for most of 2024. These same posters love to throw around coaches votes when it suits them and then fail to register that Walsh was in the top 3 for coaches votes/game for most of the year. His last two months like most of the team were poorer but to say he causes no damage just because of goals is nonsensical. 6.7 score involvements per game puts him 20th in the AFL only 0.6 per game short of Nick Daicos. That is impact. He is also a very good defensive midfielder putting up 6.8 tackles per game (6th in AFL) and 24.3 pressure acts per game (9th in AFL). We saw in the 2023 finals series what a prime Sam Walsh looks like and there are very few players in the competition that are better. With a hopefully full pre-season for the first time in a while I expect improvement again from him.

Lastly, metres gained is the most useless stat in the game. I can go out there and hack the ball forward 50m every time I get it and be the best metres gained player in the comp and simultaneously be the worst player in the comp. It does not take into account what the player does with the ball, what options they had available etc. For instance, in a lot of cases a handball to a distributor is a much better decision for the team than a long hack kick and yet metres gained will reward the kick more.

 

[South of the Yarra]

"The good teams have worked out their predictability" and yet Carlton were the 4th highest scoring team in the competition in the 2024 H+A season. If you don't like points for Carlton also ranked highly in the following offensive areas in 2024:

• Average goal scorers: 8.3 per game (4th in AFL)
• Goals per inside 50: 26.4% (1st in AFL)
• Scoring shots per inside 50: 47.3% (4th in AFL)
• Scores from stoppage: 37.0 points per game (4th in AFL)
• Scores from turnover: 52.0 points per game (4th in AFL)

So clearly Carlton's offense is not predictable or it would have been easily for opposition to stop which they clearly couldn't in 2024.

Another point is that Curnow and McKay kicked 106 goals between them from 42 combined games. Only Cameron/Stengle (110 goals from 49 combined games) and Hogan/Greene (121 goals from 54 combined games) scored more as duos. So not sure how you can say that is a low return. The thing you are also forgetting is the impact those two players have outside of goals. Curnow was 2nd amongst key forwards for score involvements per game with 7.1 and McKay is the best up-the-ground forward in the competition outside of Jeremy Cameron.


Seems people have forgotten how good Walsh was for most of 2024. These same posters love to throw around coaches votes when it suits them and then fail to register that Walsh was in the top 3 for coaches votes/game for most of the year. His last two months like most of the team were poorer but to say he causes no damage just because of goals is nonsensical. 6.7 score involvements per game puts him 20th in the AFL only 0.6 per game short of Nick Daicos. That is impact. He is also a very good defensive midfielder putting up 6.8 tackles per game (6th in AFL) and 24.3 pressure acts per game (9th in AFL). We saw in the 2023 finals series what a prime Sam Walsh looks like and there are very few players in the competition that are better. With a hopefully full pre-season for the first time in a while I expect improvement again from him.

Metres gained is the most useless stat in the game. I can go out there and hack the ball forward 50m every time I get it and be the best metres gained player in the comp. It does not take into account what the player does with the ball, what options they had available etc. For instance, in a lot of cases a handball to a distributor is a much better decision for the team than a rushed hack kick and yet metres gained will reward the kick more.

Thanks for a great response and providing great footy discussion like many are prone not to do when it involves Pies and Blues. When I am talking big games and big finals i am referring to finals. Home and Away is really irrelevant. Carlton’s last 4 finals scores have been 74,73,63 and 71 (much of the 71 was scored when Lions shut down). Yes their forward structure has been worked out when it counts. And to be honest a score involvement is a really really irrelevant stat.

 

[Mr Meow]

"The good teams have worked out their predictability" and yet Carlton were the 4th highest scoring team in the competition in the 2024 H+A season. If you don't like points for Carlton also ranked highly in the following offensive areas in 2024:

• Average goal scorers: 8.3 per game (4th in AFL)
• Goals per inside 50: 26.4% (1st in AFL)
• Scoring shots per inside 50: 47.3% (4th in AFL)
• Scores from stoppage: 37.0 points per game (4th in AFL)
• Scores from turnover: 52.0 points per game (4th in AFL)

So clearly Carlton's offense is not predictable or it would have been easily for opposition to stop which they clearly couldn't in 2024.

Another point is that Curnow and McKay kicked 106 goals between them from 42 combined games. Only Cameron/Stengle (110 goals from 49 combined games) and Hogan/Greene (121 goals from 54 combined games) scored more as duos. So not sure how you can say that is a low return. The thing you are also forgetting is the impact those two players have outside of goals. Curnow was 2nd amongst key forwards for score involvements per game with 7.1 and McKay is the best up-the-ground forward in the competition outside of Jeremy Cameron.


Seems people have forgotten how good Walsh was for most of 2024. These same posters love to throw around coaches votes when it suits them and then fail to register that Walsh was in the top 3 for coaches votes/game for most of the year. His last two months like most of the team were poorer but to say he causes no damage just because of goals is nonsensical. 6.7 score involvements per game puts him 20th in the AFL only 0.6 per game short of Nick Daicos. That is impact. He is also a very good defensive midfielder putting up 6.8 tackles per game (6th in AFL) and 24.3 pressure acts per game (9th in AFL). We saw in the 2023 finals series what a prime Sam Walsh looks like and there are very few players in the competition that are better. With a hopefully full pre-season for the first time in a while I expect improvement again from him.

Lastly, metres gained is the most useless stat in the game. I can go out there and hack the ball forward 50m every time I get it and be the best metres gained player in the comp and simultaneously be the worst player in the comp. It does not take into account what the player does with the ball, what options they had available etc. For instance, in a lot of cases a handball to a distributor is a much better decision for the team than a long hack kick and yet metres gained will reward the kick more.

First of all this is a good, detailed post.

Another way to look at it is that high points for and against (like Carlton in 2024) can simply indicate an attacking game plan rather than dominant potency up forward. Carlton finished with the 8th highest %. A stronger forward half system could mean midfielders and defenders can hold opposition's scoring capacity in a more effective fashion - positional and tactical adjustments equivalent to sitting deeper or dealing with less rebounds. It's not all about number of goals for each player, but rather how the forward line operates as a whole and how the inside 50 kicks are. High goals per inside 50 can reflect just how good Curnow and McKay are, but doesn't mean the delivery is immaculate.

 

[carlton_99]

First of all this is a good, detailed post.

Another way to look at it is that high points for and against (like Carlton in 2024) can simply indicate an attacking game plan rather than dominant potency up forward. Carlton finished with the 8th highest %. A stronger forward half system could mean midfielders and defenders can hold opposition's scoring capacity in a more effective fashion - positional and tactical adjustments equivalent to sitting deeper or dealing with less rebounds. It's not all about number of goals for each player, but rather how the forward line operates as a whole and how the inside 50 kicks are. High goals per inside 50 can reflect just how good Curnow and McKay are, but doesn't mean the delivery is immaculate.

Oh I'm not saying we can't improve up forward and especially our mid-forward connection. But to say that the return from Curnow/McKay has been "low" doesn't make much sense.

 

[carlton_99]

Thanks for a great response and providing great footy discussion like many are prone not to do when it involves Pies and Blues. When I am talking big games and big finals i am referring to finals. Home and Away is really irrelevant. Carlton’s last 4 finals scores have been 74,73,63 and 71 (much of the 71 was scored when Lions shut down). Yes their forward structure has been worked out when it counts. And to be honest a score involvement is a really really irrelevant stat.

Firstly, I would say I don't think four finals is that significant of a sample size when it comes to Curnow/McKay performances. Especially considering McKay missed 1.5 of them and Curnow missed one of them. Secondly, finals games are normally lower scoring games because it always becomes more contested and defensive.

I also don't understand how a score involvement is an irrelevant stat. It takes into account any contribution in a scoring chain. Sometimes the handball to the player that delivers it inside 50 to a leading player is just as important as the kick itself. Looking at goal assists only would diminish the impact of players like inside midfielders whose main role is to get the ball into the hands of distributors who would normally get the goal assist.

 

[Mr Meow]

Oh I'm not saying we can't improve up forward and especially our mid-forward connection. But to say that the return from Curnow/McKay has been "low" doesn't make much sense.

Yeah I definitely agree with that. They were great and there was no lacking in potency. Yes they were kicked to a lot but overall that is still probably the best plan with the current personnel. For a while Geelong had to basically kick it to Hawkins and nobody else. They were still making prelims.

 

[Worm4]

Thanks for a great response and providing great footy discussion like many are prone not to do when it involves Pies and Blues. When I am talking big games and big finals i am referring to finals. Home and Away is really irrelevant. Carlton’s last 4 finals scores have been 74,73,63 and 71 (much of the 71 was scored when Lions shut down). Yes their forward structure has been worked out when it counts. And to be honest a score involvement is a really really irrelevant stat.

It's not how much you score, it's how much you can defend. Pies proved in 2023 with scores of 58, 60, and 90 in the finals that defence is king when it comes to winning finals.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Carlton’s alleged superstars are part of their problem. Cripps is an absolute champion of the game and Weitering is a gun.The problem for Carlton is that Curnow and McKay are actually liabilities under pressure. Curnow averages 2.4 goals a game (1.0 goal a game in finals) and McKay 2.0 goals a game. That is a 4.4 goals a game between them which is an incredibly low return considering how many times they are kicked to. Curnow average plummets when you consider in the last two years his biggest bags of 10, 9 and 6 have been against WC, WC and Kangas. The good teams have worked out their predictability. The other issue is Walsh causes no damage. Walsh kicked 5 goals this year (2 against Richmond) and has not kicked a goal in the past 9 matches. Incredibly his metres gained is 111 metres less a match than someone like Nick Daicos. It really is Carlton and their two superstars or bust.

1 goal a game is what McStay averages across his career and all we ever hear about him is that he's incredibly important to the Pies structure and greatly underrated

I also noticed you excluded his bag of 6 against Moore...

 

[Worm4]

1 goal a game is what McStay averages across his career and all we ever hear about him is that he's incredibly important to the Pies structure and greatly underrated

I also noticed you excluded his bag of 6 against Moore...

They forget stuff deliberately im 100% convinced. Also note , pretty sure every player get the chance to kick 10 against WC and North - curnow does it he's a flat track bully, if McStay did it, would be considered a master-class.