Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?

[WalshistheGOAT]

I wasn't necessarily saying they were old. I was just comparing them to Richmond in 2016. What did Richmond's core look like at the end of 2016 when they were just about to open a four year premiership window?

Prestia - 24
Nankervis - 24
Dusty - 25
Cotchin - 26
Rance - 27
Riewoldt - 28
Grigg - 28

I still think Richmond were younger at the end of 2016 than Carlton are right now. Carlton seem to be right in the middle of it and maybe have another year or two before it drops away, like others have suggested in this thread.

Overall that Richmond team was younger than the current Blues outfit, but I believe with the post season changes we've made we'd be right around that same mark. Will just be with our senior core being a year or two older than most of their Richmond counterparts.

Where I disagree is our future prospects, we'll have pick 3 coming in this year along with a couple of later kids and the likely pick 1 favourite in 2026. I think with a few other promising youngsters developing well enough we should be in a great spot for the next 5-6 years. When Curnow, Mckay and Weitering retire (hopefully around that 32-34 age range)
is when we'll really hit some trouble imo.

 

[GC2015]

Overall that Richmond team was younger than the current Blues outfit, but I believe with the post season changes we've made we'd be right around that same mark. Will just be with our senior core being a year or two older than most of their Richmond counterparts.

Where I disagree is our future prospects, we'll have pick 3 coming in this year along with a couple of later kids and the likely pick 1 favourite in 2026. I think with a few other promising youngsters developing well enough we should be in a great spot for the next 5-6 years. When Curnow, Mckay and Weitering retire (hopefully around that 32-34 age range)
is when we'll really hit some trouble imo.

This is another point of distinction between Richmond in 2016 and Carlon in 2024. The Tigers used their 2016 pick 6 to secure a 24 year old Dion Prestia (who was about to enter his physical prime) and he had an immediate impact in Richmond's run to the premiership in 2017. I suppose you could argue Carlton had a similar opportunity with Dan Houston this off season, but that didn't eventuate and they secured pick 3.

Was it the right move? Richmond drafted Shai Bolton in 2016 and although he ended up becoming a great contributor for them, it didn't happen straight away. Bolton didn't play in the 2017 flag. Maybe pick 3 for Carlton will be different but I'd guess it's pretty unlikely that we're going to see that player significantly contribute in his first year or two at the Blues. I'm sure Walker will also be great when they draft him in 2026 but will it be too late by then? By that point you're looking at most of those core guys you listed being in their 30s when the 2027 season begins.

I personally think Carlton should have gone after high quality players in their prime / entering their prime instead of prioritising a high end draft pick this off season. Look at who Collingwood recruited at the end of 2022 when they went from prelim finalists to premiers - 23 year old Bobby Hill, 27 year old Dan McStay and a 29 year old Tom Mitchell. They went for it and it paid off. Just like Richmond did at the end of 2016 with players like 24 year old Prestia and 23 year old Nankervis being brought in.