List Mgmt. Hawk's List Management 2023

[FB19]

Agreed.
Would prefer another shot at a KPP or Fwd this draft than the 10th best midfielder next year.

Do you bottle and sell your optimism mate would love to get my hands on some!!!

 

[KeeperLeaguer]

I can't help but wonder at times if the top 6 or so in this draft look so good because the next tier is so shallow. It means they are almost never competing against players who would challenge them to play their best at all times, making it somewhat more difficult to assess exactly how good they really will be.

Excellent point. This was noted (probably by every club) and was a factor in deciding on our first pick.

 

[KermitJagger]

I agree with this. I can't help but wonder at times if the top 6 or so in this draft look so good because the next tier is so shallow. It means they are almost never competing against players who would challenge them to play their best at all times, making it somewhat more difficult to assess exactly how good they really will be. Having no opportunity to watch in person, I absolutely defer to those who have.

I doubt it's much of a concern. Draftees aren't just playing U18 footy - on top of playing multiple levels of U18 footy (school, representative, national), most of the better kids play VFL / SANFL league and they train with AFL clubs. They also have multiple years of footy to judge across those levels, so teams can assess how they compete when under-aged against draft age talent. The likelihood of the player's ability being overrated or even underrated due to the draft being shallow is pretty small.

 

[tl92]

I agree with this. I can't help but wonder at times if the top 6 or so in this draft look so good because the next tier is so shallow. It means they are almost never competing against players who would challenge them to play their best at all times, making it somewhat more difficult to assess exactly how good they really will be. Having no opportunity to watch in person, I absolutely defer to those who have.

Would have to be considered, although worth noting that Reid and Watson dominated last year in what I would say was a very strong draft.

 

[hawkinoz]

That's a big assumption. I personally think we should be trading out next years first. I think it will be valued more now than at the end of next year. Plus another years' development into a top kid would really fast track us.

If we hold a top 5 pick next yr and draft is mid heavy and we feel we are well stocked there, then a deal like the one Dogs did with Suns to fill other holes and get a F1 in would be perfect.

I am fine with trading F1 to get Reid but lets not undersell the value of our F1. if we hold it, we can extract value in diff ways next yr.

 

[TheFourPillars]

If we hold a top 5 pick next yr and draft is mid heavy and we feel we are well stocked there, then a deal like the one Dogs did with Suns to fill other holes and get a F1 in would be perfect.

I am fine with trading F1 to get Reid but lets not undersell the value of our F1. if we hold it, we can extract value in diff ways next yr.

I mean what's wrong with bringing that pick forward rather than sending that into the future. If we really want a player in this draft that is available at a pick we will spend that first rounder. We would rather get that player in now than worry about what we would get selling next years draft pick for future assets

 

[Platten44]

I mean what's wrong with bringing that pick forward rather than sending that into the future. If we really want a player in this draft that is available at a pick we will spend that first rounder. We would rather get that player in now than worry about what we would get selling next years draft pick for future assets

the argument is, say it's pick 4-8 in 2024 (keeping it now also safeguards against a bad injury run and fall down the ladder) trade it this year to Geelong for pick 10 or keep it for next year and trade it like the Gold Coast/Dogs deal for 2 later first rounders in 2024 and a 2025 first rounder (or trade for a gun player)

pick 10 this year or 3 first rounders across 2024/25?

 

[burner1]

Can someone confirm how many senior list spots open we have? I’ve seen 4?
Don’t we need 6 to be able to take our two picks in the 60s to the draft?

 

[KermitJagger]

the argument is, say it's pick 4-8 in 2024 (keeping it now also safeguards against a bad injury run and fall down the ladder) trade it this year to Geelong for pick 10 or keep it for next year and trade it like the Gold Coast/Dogs deal for 2 later first rounders in 2024 and a 2025 first rounder (or trade for a gun player)

pick 10 this year or 3 first rounders across 2024/25?

IMO the best choice is always going to be the one you have control over, where you get the player you're certain you want. We traded into last year's draft because we wanted Weddle and we knew he was available, where trading into the future you're not certain which pick you'll have or whether you'll get the player you're genuinely excited about.

 

[TheFourPillars]

the argument is, say it's pick 4-8 in 2024 (keeping it now also safeguards against a bad injury run and fall down the ladder) trade it this year to Geelong for pick 10 or keep it for next year and trade it like the Gold Coast/Dogs deal for 2 later first rounders in 2024 and a 2025 first rounder (or trade for a gun player)

pick 10 this year or 3 first rounders across 2024/25?

The 3 first rounders is all guess work at what your pick will be worth in the future. The future pick would get us the player now that we want. The future takes care of itself we do what is needed now if we want the player.

Remember picks are just that until they become players. Players that you WANT

 

[Platten44]

The 3 first rounders is all guess work at what your pick will be worth in the future. The future pick would get us the player now that we want. The future takes care of itself we do what is needed now if we want the player.

Remember picks are just that until they become players. Players that you WANT

that's the argument - it's all a gamble

 

[TheFourPillars]

that's the argument - it's all a gamble

The future is a gamble if you WANT said player have spent many hours / days studying and watching player play. Then its actually much less of a gamble and more an informed decision

 

[Platten44]

The future is a gamble if you WANT said player have spent many hours / days studying and watching player play. Then its actually much less of a gamble and more an informed decision

would you prefer Ginbey and 12 months development or the Wizard?

 

[TheFourPillars]

if we traded our 2023 1st pick last year to get Ginbey or Phillipou we would have missed out on Weddle and Watson or Curtin or whoever we pick at 4 this year, that would have been a terrible gamble

I'm sorry? We only trade up if we feel the said player is still available at a draft pick much later than we rated him. So we rated Weddle at a range 10-12 and were trying to get him from pick 12 got him at pick 18. This is NOT a gamble according to our list management team

 

[Platten44]

I'm sorry? We only trade up if we feel the said player is still available at a draft pick much later than we rated him. So we rated Weddle at a range 10-12 and were trying to get him from pick 12 got him at pick 18. This is NOT a gamble according to our list management team

deleted that post - we still could have got Weddle as well

 

[TheFourPillars]

would you prefer Ginbey and 12 months development or the Wizard?

Once again did we rate Ginbey high enough for us to give up the assets no we didn't but we rated Weddle so we did. You are not getting it. The future is irrelevant if you get what you want now. Who cares about the future

 

[Platten44]

Once again did we rate Ginbey high enough for us to give up the assets no we didn't but we rated Weddle so we did. You are not getting it. The future is irrelevant if you get what you want now. Who cares about the future

we might have rated Ginbey but couldn't get a trade done - have to get a trade done

 

[TheFourPillars]

we might have rated Ginbey but couldn't get a trade done - have to get a trade done

We definitely rated Phillipou. But weren't willing to give resources for the pick was within the range we rated him. The pick has to be a bargain according to our list management

 

[Platten44]

Clarkson loved Liam Stocker

14

Liam Stocker

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.6

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

180.0

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.6

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

180.0

3star

in 2018, rated him top 10 and offered our 2019 first rounder to get him at 19 - that would have cost us Will Day.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Clarkson loved Liam Stocker in 2018, rated him top 10 and offered our 2019 first rounder to get him at 19 - that would have cost us Will Day.

I mean this is a much of a much ness i mean we ****ed up picking thorp and dowler at pick 6. They were not worth that much looking back we should have gone Selwood etc. Its a bloody rabbit hole

 

[MasterSamurai]

Our future first will only be on the table on draft night imo. Wouldn't make much sense to do anything right now. İf a player is available that we like at 8-9, then we'd be asking that club to have their phones at the ready. Walking away with two top ten pix would be great. But ONLY if the player we rate, is still on the board.

 

[FB19]

Our future first will only be on the table on draft night imo. Wouldn't make much sense to do anything right now. İf a player is available that we like at 8-9, then we'd be asking that club to have their phones at the ready. Walking away with two top ten pix would be great. But ONLY if the player we rate, is still on the board.

I feel like the crows are the first potential pick that might be available as we don’t have the draft capital Mackie would want (Unless of course we manage to bring in 2 late picks like 76 and 94 of course).
Given they have 2 more picks in the top 20 and Tyler welsh FS next year likely top 10 it could be very attractive to them. Would hope it would only be for one of Curtin Watson or OSullivan if we did. Would need to include their f3 to be allowed. Dees at pick 11 could also be tempted but it’s potentially giving up a top 5 pick it’s a big risk.

 

[Topiary]

I mean this is a much of a much ness i mean we ****ed up picking thorp and dowler at pick 6. They were not worth that much looking back we should have gone Selwood etc. Its a bloody rabbit hole

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

 

[burner1]

The club has to balance:
-how highly we rate a player in this years draft
-the cost of acquiring the pick (eg F1?)
-our expected finishing position next year (if using a F1) and a realistic view of the possible range (ie probability of a bottom 3 finish with a few injuries)
-views on strength of next years draft crop and players likely available

It’s pretty subjective and a lot of room for variance on the moving pieces (ie next years ladder position and what draft crop will look like in 12 months). If did a lot of trades would even out but the trades are pretty infrequent.

Ie pies looked silly for trading future pick to gws that gave up pick 2 to gws in 2021 - yet they won a flag 2 years later so they read their list right but had a big anomaly of a down year.

 

[Coathanger]

Our future first is going nowhere if we are seriously full into B.Smith as reported in here.