List Mgmt. Hawk's List Management 2023

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I don't see it in Long to play as predominantly a leading/marking forward. He's a primary target onballer, using his size advantage to take the tackle and distribute to outside runners by hand. In our side, that's often Nash's role. Newcombe and Day play both roles (the mythical dual inside/outside onballers we've needed for the best part of a decade). Worpel still hoofs it too much from congestion but it is working out very well for him again right now.

It's an issue most young players have finding themselves in the side behind an 'established' midfield. Invariably due to size/physique they start in outside or supporting roles, and transition into the centre more as they develop physically. We've got a bunch (McDonald, Ward, McKenzie) of young mids already in our "best 22" that are probably all best as ballwinners inside the contest, but for the moment are mostly playing in supporting and distribution roles.

We have some (Long, Maginness, Stephens, Hustwaite) that don't offer as much 'outside' (despite Long's endurance, it's McEvoy style slow endurance to run all day, and Maginness simply can't kick), so will more likely need to wait until one (or more!) of Worpel/Nash/Newcombe are out for an opportunity to play as a true inside player.

The open spots are really on the HFF, with Breust and Moore the only locks and two spots being shared around.

Our onball unit is actually well set atm with the "big 4" taking nearly 90% of all CBAs.
Nash - 68% CBAs, (in 77% TOG)
Newcombe - 68% (82%)
Day - 64% (82%)
Worpel - 63% (76%)
With Ward/McKenzie/McDonald as the 5th getting just 3-5 CBAs per game when the big-4 are resting.

Similarly on the Wing, Amon (82%) and Morrison (81%) have dominated the time on wing, with the 5th midfielder and CJ/Moore/Weddle/Bramble all getting some time there over the season. Our young midfield is actually very settled and it shows in their performances.

Now we have Lewis back, and providing a structure both up front and in defence, I'm expecting big things the rest of the season (injury permitting). 5-6 more wins which will disappoint the draft watchers, as firstly Reid (already gone IMO) and soon Curtin, Caddy and others drop out of our draft chances as we approach pick 5 (NM, WCE with GWS/Ric/Car/Syd/Haw all in the next group picking 3-8).
Yup sorry didn’t mean predominately, but I think theirs a serious need to give our core midfield a rotation that isn’t just the bench, means in critical moment we can have the same level of contested ball winning but be able to hold a jai or day in an attacking position. It would help stretch sides in time.

In one season mitchell has been able to manufacture a functioning midfield, pretty amazing.

I expect us to win some more games and we are playing confident footy for the first time in a long time which has held us back for a while but seeing us get day at 13, Mackenzie…theirs always a chance for a gun no matter the pick. If anything list management is about to get a lot harder with knowing who to retain long term
 
We have trimmed a LOT of fat in the last two years...there is no reason to turnover another large number.

TBH, I'm happy to keep all the young 20-something who are either best 22 or pushing it...

My first looks are at Jeka, Finn...and then Chad!
I think Jeka and Chad right now are the two certainties to be off the list.

Max Lynch has to be a big question mark. If he has to retire that is the minimum 3.

Then it gets more interesting:
  • Kosi's unexpected (and extremely pleasing) resurgence makes it look like he will play on in 2024. Can he sustain it? History says no.
  • The above might spell the end for Fergus Greene if Kosi gets another season. I suspect it will esp if we take a tall in the MSD who shows enough.
  • Finn is a big question mark but given he is unique on the list as a tagger has some claims to stay on the list. I hope we give him another season.
  • Morris - Seamus' overnight rise makes it hard for him now. But would be great to keep for depth as is a goer but suspect he is a trade/delist.
  • Fionn - deserves another year for development as a i/n rookie.
  • Long - pressing hard for seniors. Is his disposal up to scratch? If we think it is he goes around again in 2024. Can he tag? If so he may push Finn out. Not sure as a pure attacking mid he can push ahead of any of the incumbents in the AFL side but potentially a handy utility.
  • Stephens - might be under the pump now - we will know more based on his 2nd half of the season. Don't mind him perhaps a delist and re-rookie scenario.
  • Morrison - would he have currency for another club eg Norf? Weagles? If he cant get back into the side then his time may be up.
  • Breust - it wouldn't be completely unexpected if he retired at the end of the season and move into coaching.
  • MSD - if we take 2 players it heightens the squeeze.
I would hope we look at a minimum of 5 changes.

A lot of the list playing for their futures which is a good thing for us.
 
  • Stephens - might be under the pump now - we will know more based on his 2nd half of the season. Don't mind him perhaps a delist and re-rookie scenario.
Almost certainly, verging on absolutely definitely, signed to a 2 year deal at a very minimum
 

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I think Jeka and Chad right now are the two certainties to be off the list.

Max Lynch has to be a big question mark. If he has to retire that is the minimum 3.

Then it gets more interesting:
  • Kosi's unexpected (and extremely pleasing) resurgence makes it look like he will play on in 2024. Can he sustain it? History says no.
  • The above might spell the end for Fergus Greene if Kosi gets another season. I suspect it will esp if we take a tall in the MSD who shows enough.
  • Finn is a big question mark but given he is unique on the list as a tagger has some claims to stay on the list. I hope we give him another season.
  • Morris - Seamus' overnight rise makes it hard for him now. But would be great to keep for depth as is a goer but suspect he is a trade/delist.
  • Fionn - deserves another year for development as a i/n rookie.
  • Long - pressing hard for seniors. Is his disposal up to scratch? If we think it is he goes around again in 2024. Can he tag? If so he may push Finn out. Not sure as a pure attacking mid he can push ahead of any of the incumbents in the AFL side but potentially a handy utility.
  • Stephens - might be under the pump now - we will know more based on his 2nd half of the season. Don't mind him perhaps a delist and re-rookie scenario.
  • Morrison - would he have currency for another club eg Norf? Weagles? If he cant get back into the side then his time may be up.
  • Breust - it wouldn't be completely unexpected if he retired at the end of the season and move into coaching.
  • MSD - if we take 2 players it heightens the squeeze.
I would hope we look at a minimum of 5 changes.

A lot of the list playing for their futures which is a good thing for us.

I concur with most but few quibbles.

Lots of fans are disrespecting Ferg and treating like he has gone off the rails. Still 2nd in goal kicking list and had a break. If you read Sam's write-ups when he coached BH, every week was praise for Fergs. Sam knows what he can do and will keep him on as depth for another yr atleast as he is very reliable. We saw the impact he had at start. Expecting him to dominate back at BH and then he will get another go as Bruest gets managed once past his 500 goals.

Stephens is contracted till 2024, so likely to be trade option if he agrees. See below post/spreadsheet
Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

The below guys are out of contract at end of 2023
20Chad WingardNon-Free Agent2023
39Emerson JekaNon-Free Agent2023
26Fergus GreeneNon-Free Agent2023
32Finn MaginnessNon-Free Agent2023
34Fionn O'HaraNon-Free Agent2023
23Jacob KoschitzkeNon-Free Agent2023
29Jai SerongNon-Free Agent2023
36James BlanckNon-Free Agent2023
5James WorpelNon-Free Agent2023
4Jarman ImpeyNon-Free Agent2023
35Josh MorrisNon-Free Agent2023
16Lachlan BrambleNon-Free Agent2023
18Max LynchNon-Free Agent2023
27Ned LongNon-Free Agent2023
40Seamus MitchellNon-Free Agent2023
33Tyler BrockmanNon-Free Agent2023
 
I concur with most but few quibbles.

Lots of fans are disrespecting Ferg and treating like he has gone off the rails. Still 2nd in goal kicking list and had a break. If you read Sam's write-ups when he coached BH, every week was praise for Fergs. Sam knows what he can do and will keep him on as depth for another yr atleast as he is very reliable. We saw the impact he had at start. Expecting him to dominate back at BH and then he will get another go as Bruest gets managed once past his 500 goals.

Stephens is contracted till 2024, so likely to be trade option if he agrees. See below post/spreadsheet
I love Ferg and what he has done. Was our best fwd for the first part of the season. There is certainly no disrespect whatsoever. Quite the contrary he has earned an enormous amount of respect this season after being a favourite at BH.

What has happened since Mitch Lewis has returned is that he has been pushed from the primary goalsquare role to a secondary role and didnt get near it for 2 weeks. I wasnt happy when he was dropped as I thought he demanded more time to adjust to his new role given he had carried the fwd line. But the coaches didnt like what they saw for 2 weeks and acted swiftly. It did show that he struggles at the top level having to do things like block, bring the ball to ground and provide tackling pressure when he isnt the main focus and this isnt as important. Since he has been back at BH he hasnt been great which is understandable as it is a pretty big let down.

He is never going to be a Mitch Lewis at AFL level (few are) and we have seen Kosi now back in favour and performing as the 2nd tall (for how long who knows). And I suspect we draft a tall in the MSD plus we see Serong start to put form together Greene might slip right back in the pecking order and the coaches might think they have seen enough of him at AFL level to make a call. It prob comes down to how many spaces we want to free up on the list - he might end up being pushed out. Again I hope not as he has some class and genuine fwd nous but its a big 2nd half of the season for him to improve further.
 
I love Ferg and what he has done. Was our best fwd for the first part of the season. There is certainly no disrespect whatsoever. Quite the contrary he has earned an enormous amount of respect this season after being a favourite at BH.

What has happened since Mitch Lewis has returned is that he has been pushed from the primary goalsquare role to a secondary role and didnt get near it for 2 weeks. I wasnt happy when he was dropped as I thought he demanded more time to adjust to his new role given he had carried the fwd line. But the coaches didnt like what they saw for 2 weeks and acted swiftly. It did show that he struggles at the top level having to do things like block, bring the ball to ground and provide tackling pressure when he isnt the main focus and this isnt as important. Since he has been back at BH he hasnt been great which is understandable as it is a pretty big let down.

He is never going to be a Mitch Lewis at AFL level (few are) and we have seen Kosi now back in favour and performing as the 2nd tall (for how long who knows). And I suspect we draft a tall in the MSD plus we see Serong start to put form together Greene might slip right back in the pecking order and the coaches might think they have seen enough of him at AFL level to make a call. It prob comes down to how many spaces we want to free up on the list - he might end up being pushed out. Again I hope not as he has some class and genuine fwd nous but its a big 2nd half of the season for him to improve further.
Excellent analysis mate. Yeah his big weakness has always been his defensive side. A bloke his size needs to provide that. I think he first needs to start kicking some goals and build from there. There is still time
 
Love Ferg but needs to keep his chin up and find a way to do what the coaches need from him.

The position he realistically could play at AFL alongside a few genuine talls (and not the main go-to guy like R1-R6) means he can't get by with single digit possessions with no pressure acts or tackles.

Has a massive tank as shown by his draft camp beep test but seems to be wedded to the I50 whether by inclination or design.

Wheels have fallen off a touch since he faced his old mob.
 
I concur with most but few quibbles.

Lots of fans are disrespecting Ferg and treating like he has gone off the rails. Still 2nd in goal kicking list and had a break. If you read Sam's write-ups when he coached BH, every week was praise for Fergs. Sam knows what he can do and will keep him on as depth for another yr atleast as he is very reliable. We saw the impact he had at start. Expecting him to dominate back at BH and then he will get another go as Bruest gets managed once past his 500 goals.

Stephens is contracted till 2024, so likely to be trade option if he agrees. See below post/spreadsheet


The below guys are out of contract at end of 2023
20Chad WingardNon-Free Agent2023
39Emerson JekaNon-Free Agent2023
26Fergus GreeneNon-Free Agent2023
32Finn MaginnessNon-Free Agent2023
34Fionn O'HaraNon-Free Agent2023
23Jacob KoschitzkeNon-Free Agent2023
29Jai SerongNon-Free Agent2023
36James BlanckNon-Free Agent2023
5James WorpelNon-Free Agent2023
4Jarman ImpeyNon-Free Agent2023
35Josh MorrisNon-Free Agent2023
16Lachlan BrambleNon-Free Agent2023
18Max LynchNon-Free Agent2023
27Ned LongNon-Free Agent2023
40Seamus MitchellNon-Free Agent2023
33Tyler BrockmanNon-Free Agent2023

I thought Shammy becomes a delisted free agent at the end of every contract?
 
There was a a time when there were plenty of doubters that Mitch Lewis could be Mitch Lewis
not from people who knew what they were on about.
Lewis was an elite contesting marking forward since his debut.
His development was impeded by injury.

We have quite a good numer of prospects to become B to B+ types and role players.
Especially for mids and HFF.
Some of them will become fine players at other clubs, so I hope we make the right calls on which players we keep.

We are desperate for more elite talent in general, but especially KP and medium forwards.
I love Brockman.
Butler will be a good one too, but i really want to see more of O'Sullivan, Bennetts, Serong in the seniors.
Could Husthwaite, Long, Serong fill Gunston-like roles in the forward half?

We're gonna need some luck with recruiting an elite KPF.
 
I think Jeka and Chad right now are the two certainties to be off the list.

Max Lynch has to be a big question mark. If he has to retire that is the minimum 3.

Then it gets more interesting:
  • Kosi's unexpected (and extremely pleasing) resurgence makes it look like he will play on in 2024. Can he sustain it? History says no.
  • The above might spell the end for Fergus Greene if Kosi gets another season. I suspect it will esp if we take a tall in the MSD who shows enough.
  • Finn is a big question mark but given he is unique on the list as a tagger has some claims to stay on the list. I hope we give him another season.
  • Morris - Seamus' overnight rise makes it hard for him now. But would be great to keep for depth as is a goer but suspect he is a trade/delist.
  • Fionn - deserves another year for development as a i/n rookie.
  • Long - pressing hard for seniors. Is his disposal up to scratch? If we think it is he goes around again in 2024. Can he tag? If so he may push Finn out. Not sure as a pure attacking mid he can push ahead of any of the incumbents in the AFL side but potentially a handy utility.
  • Stephens - might be under the pump now - we will know more based on his 2nd half of the season. Don't mind him perhaps a delist and re-rookie scenario.
  • Morrison - would he have currency for another club eg Norf? Weagles? If he cant get back into the side then his time may be up.
  • Breust - it wouldn't be completely unexpected if he retired at the end of the season and move into coaching.
  • MSD - if we take 2 players it heightens the squeeze.
I would hope we look at a minimum of 5 changes.

A lot of the list playing for their futures which is a good thing for us.

Think he'll see out the contract tbh, especially with the dangling carrot of becoming a 300 game player in 2024.
 

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There was a a time when there were plenty of doubters that Mitch Lewis could be Mitch Lewis
Lewis always had amazing hands even from his very first game.

That's a skill you can't teach and probably the rarest and most valuable skill (especially for a forward).

He just needed to work on staying in the game and getting fit.
 
I dont care what anyone says we must minimise list changes this year unless we have high end picks. That includes giving Jeka another year he’s a KP player at 22 injured all year and has sublime skills and we don’t have anyone pushing him out. 4
Changes this year to get our first pick and another first round pick we acquire, McCabe and a late pick or rookie.
 
Lewis always had amazing hands even from his very first game.

That's a skill you can't teach and probably the rarest and most valuable skill (especially for a forward).

He just needed to work on staying in the game and getting fit.
And people forget the only reason he slipped so far in the draft was because he wouldn't commit to playing footy. He's a more than handy cricketer and still hadn't made the decision on what his full time pursuit was going to be.
 
Morris and Lynch the locks.

Probably need at least two more
Had Kosi a lock a few weeks ago, shows how much can change in a few weeks. Right now id suggest Morris, Lynch, Maginness and either Morrison/Wingard traded. Im still in camp of keeping Jeka, watching that first half yesterday you just don't see blokes his size with those kicking skills. He is a completely different player at CHB. Would anyone want Frost?
 
Morris and Lynch the locks.

Probably need at least two more
Jeka, Morris, Lynch, Serong and Bramble, for mine. Maginness might be in the gun too.
 
Jeka, Morris, Lynch, Serong and Bramble, for mine. Maginness might be in the gun too.
Bramble is handy depth. The others all on the chopping block unless they earn a spot and show something. I formed the view pretty early on that Maginness' skills were just not AFL standard and that remains the case. I don't think there's a role for a pure negating midfielder who you don't want to ever get the ball himself. Morris and Jeka have not come on and poor Lynch is finished for health reasons. A spot in the side remains for another key defender so Jeka has a couple months to save himself.
 
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