Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[DogDaySonny]

Huge mozz

Doh

 

[VandoHawk]

It just feels like everything has gone against us. Brisbane leading by 31 points at QT only to lose by 18 after kicking 8.16.

A very real chance we win the next three and still don't make it

 

[Walshawk]

The easiest path to finals now is Carlton’s sport. Will need an 8 - 10 goal win tomorrow. 65 points puts us above them.

Otherwise we need Freo to lose two.

 

[HawthornHawk]

The only path to finals now is Carlton’s sport. Will need an 8 - 10 goal win tomorrow. 65 points puts us above them.

Freo

 

[Mitch75]

It just feels like everything has gone against us. Brisbane leading by 31 points at QT only to lose by 18 after kicking 8.16.

A very real chance we win the next three and still don't make

Was always gonna be hard to make it from a 0-5 start. It’s unbelievable we’re in with a chance. Just have to win our last three by as much as possible and hope someone out of Port, Geelong, Freo, Bulldogs or Carlton has a mini choke. It’s possible for any one of them to miss if they lose a game they shouldn’t.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

It just feels like everything has gone against us. Brisbane leading by 31 points at QT only to lose by 18 after kicking 8.16.

A very real chance we win the next three and still don't make it

The Hawks had their chance to take these results out of he picture last week and they failed.

 

[Mitch75]

Would be great if Melbourne beats Port tonight and Adelaide somehow beats the Dogs tomorrow. That opens up more doors for us to get in. Doggies are no certainties against GWS at Mars stadium in the last round.

 

[seysearles]

Our best chance is for Freo and Carlton to drop games.

So as it stands we have to support everyone that plays them from here in (including Geelong unfortunately)

Providing we win out last 3, these are the results that will get us into 8th in order of most likely...

FREO (Need to lose 2/3, % not a factor)
Round 22 Cats Optus Stadium (Home)
Round 23 Giants ENGIE Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Power Optus Stadium (Home)

CARLTON (Need to lose 1/3 + makeup 8% or 2/3)
Round 22 Hawks MCG (Away)
Round 23 Eagles Optus Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Saints Marvel Stadium (Home)

GWS (Need to lose 2/3 + makeup 9% or 3/3)
Round 22 Lions Gabba (Away)
Round 23 Dockers ENGIE Stadium (Home)
Round 24 Bulldogs Mars Stadium Ballarat (Away)

Bulldogs (Need to lose 1/3 +makeup 18% or 2/3)
Round 22 Crows Adelaide Oval (Away)
Round 23 Kangaroos Marvel Stadium (Home)
Round 24 Giants Mars Stadium (Home)

Geelong (Need to lose 2/3 + makeup 4% or 3/3)
Round 22 Dockers Optus Stadium (Away)
Round 23 Saints Marvel Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Eagles GMHBA Stadium (Home)

Cross GWS of this list. Thanks a lot Brisbane.

 

[TylerDurden]

It's Carltons spot to take. Starting with a thumping tomorrow.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Huge mozz

I ain’t saying s*** about Geelong v Freo.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

It's Carltons spot to take. Starting with a thumping tomorrow.

Freo lose today and they enter the mix too.

If the Cats roll them and the Hawks win their last 3, Freo only need to lose 1 of Port or GWS and the Hawks are in.

 

[Billyc]

The Hawks had their chance to take these results out of he picture last week and they failed.

There's no doubt about that. Last week was a mini final and our blokes choked. Giants to their credit are proving themselves worthy of finals with their comeback last week and knocking over Brisbane in Brisbane.

But it is infuriating how the results keep landing that we could possibly win 14 games and still miss out. It does look like Fremantle and Carlton are the ones to hope for.

 

[SA HAWK]

Freo losing 2 the most likely scenario.

Getting our % above Carlton seems very unlikely.

 

[Rich]

I feel sub human watching this and willing the Cats on.

 

[RCAB]

For those mathematically minded people,

If we win the last 3 games, what are the chances we make the 8 vs miss out8

It's about 97% to make the 8 if we win all three.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Cross GWS of this list. Thanks a lot Brisbane.

It's our own fault, not Brisbane's

 

[crazywildhorse]

I know a lot here had pegged GWS as our entry point, but they had been slowly getting their ducks in a row again and are a real contender. They were/are never going to miss

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Was always gonna be hard to make it from a 0-5 start. It’s unbelievable we’re in with a chance. Just have to win our last three by as much as possible and hope someone out of Port, Geelong, Freo, Bulldogs or Carlton has a mini choke. It’s possible for any one of them to miss if they lose a game they shouldn’t.

Dogs could potentially lose tomorrow, than that puts huge pressure on them to win their last 2 with GWS in the last round a last chance saloon match.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Fremantle have Geelong (WA), GWS (Engie), and Port Adelaide (WA) | Need two losses to overtake
GWS have Brisbane (Gabba), Fremantle (Engie) and Dogs (Mars) | Need three losses to overtake, OR two losses + 10%.
Carlton have us, WCE (WA), and St. Kilda | Need two losses to overtake, OR one loss + 10%

These are the three teams whose spots we can take. All other teams are technically gettable too but have better form and/or easier draws.

Essendon are also half a game ahead of us but they have GC (win), Swans (???) and Brisbane (Gabba).

We can still win all three and miss the 8 (on an unprecedented 14 wins) if some results don't go our way. Lose to Carlton and the dream is completely dead.

It's still 3 teams but it's the Dogs we could overtake because of the fact they have lost 8 games. Were forgetting because of their form there still quite vulnerable with any loss.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Would be great if Melbourne beats Port tonight and Adelaide somehow beats the Dogs tomorrow. That opens up more doors for us to get in. Doggies are no certainties against GWS at Mars stadium in the last round.

Depends which Melbourne turn up tonight. They turn their toes up and go into next year mode or they could have the attitude of finishing the season on a high. On their day they are capable so see what happens.

 

[Fleabane]

I feel sub human watching this and willing the Cats on.

Yeah, good ol' Jeremy, Gryan and Tom!

 

[badgrill]

High quality game, this one in Perth.

 

[Teddy Mew]

The way things have been going, I feel like we are going to finish 9th but only 1 game off second.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Being happy about a Dangerfield goal - if I wasn’t filled with self-loathing before I sure as **** am now.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I feel sub human watching this and willing the Cats on.

How I’m feeling right now: