Society/Culture Historical temperature record proving climate change a result of fraudulent statistics?

[medusala]

No and no, both mistaken assumptions.

I cant recall where I read it but I remember one sceptic argument being that although CO2 could effect climate the relationship was logarithmic and at current levels we are on the blade not on the upward slope so a very large increase would be needed to have an effect.

 

[bit_pattern]

Gavin Schmidt refers to the logarithmic nature GHG's as do many of his commenter's. It's something that is taken into account.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...GIMP:66AA55;FORID:11;&searchdatabase=site#912

 

[bit_pattern]

Who would have thought, new record temps, and in an El Nino year too!

NASA reports hottest June to October on record

November 16, 2009

Fast on the heels of the hottest June to September on record*, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies reports that last month was tied for the second hottest September on record (after 2005).

Unlike NOAA, which announced its October global analysis with a major “State of the Climate” monthly update, NASA just quietly updates its data set (here). So you have to do a little math to see that for the June through October period, 2009 now tops both 1998 (easily) and 2005 (just barely, hence the asterisk).

For NOAA, it was the sixth warmest October on record, and the fifth-warmest January-through-October period:



Yes, the one place in the world where it warmed the least is, of course, the good old (continental) U.S. of A. — though it was the wettest October on record for the lower-48 (see WWF’s U.S. Sees Wettest October on Record; Arkansas Records are Washed Away).

And, like Climate Progress noted last month:

Then, back in early June NOAA put out “El Niño Watch,” which I noted meant that “record temperatures are coming and this will be the hottest decade on record.” So here we are.
What makes these record temps especially impressive is that we’re at “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century,” according to NASA. It’s just hard to stop the march of anthropogenic global warming, well, other than by reducing GHG emissions, that is.
Another thing that makes these record temps impressive is that we’re only in a “weak El Niño,” according to the latest monthly “El Niño/Southern oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion” of the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA’s National Weather Service:

I'm looking forward to that beer, Ripper

 

[Ripper]

Who would have thought, new record temps, and in an El Nino year too!




And, like Climate Progress noted last month:





I'm looking forward to that beer, Ripper

Nice cherry pick there showing the October graph while talking about June - Oct

Nice big red dot where I live and for June through September we were
.

May - September -0.11 under 1971-2000
June - September -0.14 under 1971-2000

October was 2.64 above average but still the only the third warmest if the last six years

Then We have New Zealand sinking from the top down

Such a cold October has occurred only four times in the past 100 years.

Yet Gisstemp reports a tiny blue dot and now fills Campbell Island (half way to Antartica)from the mainland since 2003.

 

[bit_pattern]

Nice cherry pick there showing the October graph while talking about June - Oct

Nice big red dot where I live and for June through September we were
.

May - September -0.11 under 1971-2000
June - September -0.14 under 1971-2000

October was 2.64 above average but still the only the third warmest if the last six years

Then We have New Zealand sinking from the top down




Yet Gisstemp reports a tiny blue dot and now fills Campbell Island (half way to Antartica)from the mainland since 2003.

It's quite clear, the graphic is NOAA data, not NASA data.

Try to spin it all you like but the data is clear.

 

[Ripper]

It's quite clear, the graphic is NOAA data, not NASA data.

Try to spin it all you like but the data is clear.

LOL, it gets worse , look at the big red dots in NW Canada.

The 1971-2000 average on the ground 0.6C

The October average 0.51C

And who needs Bolivia?

Andes? What Andes?

Looking at South America by altitude is complicated by all that Brazilian low land. You get a better view when you look “Country by Country”. And there are some strange things going on in those countries with The Andes running through them. There is a general movement out of the mountains and toward the beach. But is there anything particularly surprising?
Yes.
Bolivia. It is that big block of elevated ‘whitish’ toward the top of the image. A very high elevation country, with no beach. What to do, what to do… How about “Nuke Bolivia?”
Nuke Bolivia?

Weather Underground can still find Bolivia, wonder why GHCN can’t?
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/85201.html

They must surely run out of cold thermometers to drop soon.

 

[bit_pattern]

Such a vast, vast conspiracy!

I love the way you just post raw data with no context or explanation and think that makes an argument.

And this Chiefo person, whoever he might be, it's pretty funny that you can link to him so authoritatively when you mock professionals like RC. It must be a very strange mind set you conspiracy nuts have, you all share common traits so you mus share some common delusion.

You should submit a piece to http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/, I think your views would be very much appreciated over there!

 

[cancat]

This old myth keeps rearing it's head...

This was studied and there were about 40 papers arguing warming, 20 arguing not enough evidence and 6 arguing cooling.

So can we all just give that myth up now? Please?

Sauce?

 

[Ripper]

Such a vast, vast conspiracy!

I love the way you just post raw data with no context or explanation and think that makes an argument.

And this Chiefo person, whoever he might be, it's pretty funny that you can link to him so authoritatively when you mock professionals like RC. It must be a very strange mind set you conspiracy nuts have, you all share common traits so you mus share some common delusion.

You should submit a piece to http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/, I think your views would be very much appreciated over there!

I have been checking the numbers that come out of the code . Surely you have as well?
They show that the thermometers are being dropped from altitude and cold latitudes on every continent.

How do we expect continuity of results by doing that?


More errors on the map.

Eureka NE Canada , big red dot.

1971-2000 mean -22C

October 2009 mean -23.3C

Should be a big blue dot.

 

[bit_pattern]

Amateur conspiracy nonsense.

It will be amusing to watch you get more and more desperate to deny reality as temperatures continue to climb, which is one good thing at least.

Sauce?

Not that it hasn't been done at least twenty times over the years or anything but here's your sauce.

http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/89/9/pdf/i1520-0477-89-9-1325.pdf

 

[cancat]

Not that it hasn't been done at least twenty times over the years or anything but here's your sauce.

http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/89/9/pdf/i1520-0477-89-9-1325.pdf

Seems the authors have cherry picked to ensure their desired outcome.
e.g. Emiliani's paper gets mentioned in the references but not counted as a cooling paper.

Gotta love the way Schneider went from cooling alarmist in 1971 to warming alarmist by 1974. His science was swayed by the Eugenics movement which led to statements like the following...

To capture the public imagination, we have to offer up some scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements and little mention of any doubts one might have. Each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective, and being honest.​

 

[bit_pattern]

Seems the authors have cherry picked to ensure their desired outcome.

Says he whose only other source is a sensationalist pap-piece from Time

 

[bit_pattern]

And following up the record spring heatwave in S.A we now have 'catastrophic' fire warnings for the state, the sort of thing we can expect to see more of, and both earlier and of greater intensity. Of course, in the delusionists mind this is evidence of "cooling".

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS20294.shtml

I wonder whether the economic consequences of things like this are factored into the low-mitigation economic models that people like Meds love so much?

 

[bit_pattern]

Prof. Barry Brook on the Adelaide heatwave

Time for some context. The closest Adelaide has ever come to a spring heat wave was 4 days in a row 1894. This month’s event will double that — a doubling like this is not twice as unlikely, it’s orders of magnitude more unlikely. Consider that in prior to 2008, the record length for an Adelaide heat wave in any month was 8 days (all occurring in summer). Now, in the space of less than 2 years, we’ve had a 15 day event in Mar 2008 (a 1 in 3000 year event), a 9 day sequence in Jan/Feb 2009 (which included 8 days above 40°C and 13 consecutive days above 33°C), and now, another 8 day event in Nov 2009. How unusual is this? There have been 6 previous heat waves that lasted 8 days, many more of 7 days, more still of 6, and so on — the return time is logarithmically related to it’s length. Given these data, and the fact that the latest spring event has equaled previous all-time summer records (!), and the alarm bells should rightly be ringing. Statistically speaking, it’s astronomically unlikely that such a sequence of rare heat waves would occur by chance, if the climate wasn’t warming. But of course, it is.

(...)

Finally, I see that my old haunt of Darwin also cracked the record books – October 2009 was that northern tropical city’s hottest month on record, with an average maximum temperature of 34.8°C. This beat the previous all-time record (Oct 2008) by 0.4°C and followed hot on the heels of its hottest August on record. Makes me glad I left Darwin in February 2007! (at least Adelaide’s heat waves finally break).

 

[cancat]

I refer you to my previous question that you ignored.

So was the four days above 35 degrees in 1894 evidence of "climate change" or just normal temperature variation?

 

[bit_pattern]

And I refer you to the post above yours that you ignored.

The closest Adelaide has ever come to a spring heat wave was 4 days in a row 1894. This month’s event will double that — a doubling like this is not twice as unlikely, it’s orders of magnitude more unlikely. Consider that in prior to 2008, the record length for an Adelaide heat wave in any month was 8 days (all occurring in summer). Now, in the space of less than 2 years, we’ve had a 15 day event in Mar 2008 (a 1 in 3000 year event), a 9 day sequence in Jan/Feb 2009 (which included 8 days above 40°C and 13 consecutive days above 33°C), and now, another 8 day event in Nov 2009.

 

[cancat]

And I refer you to the post above yours that you ignored.

I refer you to the bom November temperature chart for Adelaide that you ignored.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/w...=36&p_month=11

 

[bit_pattern]

LOL, I did address it, actually. Still not getting it, are you? It's not about maximum temperatures, it's about duration.

 

[cancat]

LOL, I did address it, actually. Still not getting it, are you? It's not about maximum temperatures, it's about duration.

When it's not about duration, it's about high/low records or maximums or anything else to support your cockamamy theories.

We've only had accurate temperature records since the late 1800s. And Australia is a big country. You're bound to get temperature records here and there all the time.

 

[cancat]

More evidence of 'global warming'.

Adelaide shivers through coldest August on record

Press Release, Sunday August 31, 2008 - 14:49 EST


Residents of Adelaide have just shivered through their coldest August on record, according to weatherzone.com.au.

The city had an average maximum of 15 degrees, below the long term normal of 17. This made it the coldest August in terms of daytime temperatures since records began in 1977. In fact, on the 10th, the mercury struggled to just 12 degrees, the coldest August day in five years.

The nights were also chilly. The city had an average minimum of seven degrees, slightly below the long term normal of eight. This made it the coldest August in terms of overnight temperatures since records began in 1977. On the morning of the 24th, the temperature plunged to two degrees, the coldest August night in nine years.

When both daytime and overnight temperatures were combined, Adelaide’s average temperature came in at 11 degrees, slightly below the long term normal of 12. This made it the coldest August since records began in 1977.

"Southeast Australia has been in the grips of a very cold airmass for much of August. Strong cold fronts have been pushing up from the Southern Ocean, sending temperatures plummeting," weatherzone.com.au meteorologist Matt Pearce said.

"This is a far cry from August of last year, when Adelaide had already experienced its first 30 degree day of the season by the end of the month."

It was a cold month right across South Australia. A number of records were broken for lowest August temperatures, including at Coober Pedy, Moomba, Cleve, Kimba, Mount Lofty and Mt Crawford.

It was also a wet month. Adelaide picked up 80mm, slightly above the long term normal of 68mm. This made it the wettest August since 2005.

The rainfall was also spread around the state. For example, Strathalbyn received 101mm, making it their wettest August in 12 years of records.

"In addition to the low temperatures, the strong cold fronts also brought frequent bursts of showers to agricultural areas of South Australia. Rain was recorded on 22 days during the month in Adelaide, compared to a long term normal of 16 days," Pearce said.

"We are expecting a return to closer to average rainfall throughout the rest of the year across South Australia. We are heading into the drier months now as cold fronts become less frequent, so the number of rainy days will drop off through spring."

 

[bit_pattern]

When it's not about duration, it's about high/low records or maximums or anything else to support your cockamamy theories.

We've only had accurate temperature records since the late 1800s. And Australia is a big country. You're bound to get temperature records here and there all the time.

Keept telling yourself that. If you don't think that it is significant that we are knocking over record after record, even going so far as to break summer records in spring and 1 in 3000 year events then, well, there's nothing I can say to change your mind.

Keep living in denial if you like. Whatever works for you, I guess.

/shrugs

 

[cancat]

Keept telling yourself that. If you don't think that it is significant that we are knocking over record after record, even going so far as to break summer records in spring and 1 in 3000 year events then, well, there's nothing I can say to change your mind.

Keep living in denial if you like. Whatever works for you, I guess.

/shrugs

Blah blah. Adelaide's highest max November day was in 1993. Its highest ever min November day was 1998. It's highest max and highest min temperatures were both came on a January day, which I think even in the alarmist calendar, is in summer.

Keep trying.

 

[bit_pattern]

No, cancat, you are {deliberately?) mising the point. Maybe if I type slowly you might get it? Even in summer an eight day heatwave in incredibly rare, but evidently will become less so as GW really takes hold.

Keep denying. Whatever works for you.

 

[cancat]

No, cancat, you are {deliberately?) mising the point. Maybe if I type slowly you might get it? Even in summer an eight day heatwave in incredibly rare, but evidently will become less so as GW really takes hold.

Keep denying. Whatever works for you.

I think the point is that one particular part of one country in the world is having a particular type of hot weather condition and the rest of that country isn't. And seeing as accurate weather readings have only been available since the late 1800s, which happened to coincide the end of an unusually cold period, compared to previous centuries, then we should expect some records now and then. And this is exactly what we see, some high records here and there. Some low temperature records too.

 

[bit_pattern]

The point being though that these types of events are exactly what the physics of CO2 say should happen and what we can expect to see with increasing regularity. In that context, a spate of record breaking heatwaves is indeed significant, even if we didn't have ANY past climate data whatsoever. It's all good and well to point out tht climate has changed in the past but that doesn't change what we know is happening to the climate today.