Society/Culture Historical temperature record proving climate change a result of fraudulent statistics?

[KUNG FU]

Thanks Hawk.

Have you seen the latest where Lord Monckton claims that "Obama is poised to cede power in Copenhagen"

It's gone a bit viral.

[youtube]PMe5dOgbu40[/youtube]

Here is an analysis and link to the treaty.

Remember that Australia is hell bent on signing this as well.
​

International relations is governed by treaties now?

Its amusing that he would quote Churchill, a staunch IR realist, in this circumstance.

EDIT: "I have read that treaty!" @ 0:30 Hahahaha well done mate

 

[Ripper]

More on Plimer's fraudulent claims regarding Mauna Loa:

Plagarism is a rather serious charge BP.

It seems that the main reason He assumes that that Plimer stole Enderbee's work is the discrepancy in the numbers.

I took the trouble to download the file and check the numbers.

This is what I got , feel free to check yourself.

I.*    1
I..    1102
.D*    15
.D.    866
.U*    12
.U.    1085
.V.    655
..*    38
...    5010
    
total    8784

The readme is very obtuse .

... - No code applied. Data are considered 'background'.
C.. - Weekly calibration of reference gases, no data available
I.. - Instrument malfunction, no data available
.V. - Large variability of CO2 mixing ratio within one hour
.D. - Hour-to-hour difference in mixing ratio > 0.25 ppm
.A. - Automatic selection based on residuals from a spline curve
.U. - Rejected, diurnal variation (upslope) in CO2 (Mauna Loa only)

The only category clearly "rejected" is the ".U."
If you took this part at face value not knowing what we know now (that all flagged data is tossed) it is feasible to think that the ".D."'s are used.

I cannot seem to find any reference to the "*" in either the readme or the update file.

I would assume that it marks revisions as the 2004 file was
"File Creation: Fri Apr 10 13:06:18 2009"

 

[evo]

International relations is governed by treaties now?

Its amusing that he would quote Churchill, a staunch IR realist, in this circumstance.

EDIT: "I have read that treaty!" @ 0:30 Hahahaha well done mate

Why so? He is arguing for IR realism (as oppossed to the expansion in the power of world governing bodies)

 

[Ripper]

International relations is governed by treaties now?

Its amusing that he would quote Churchill, a staunch IR realist, in this circumstance.

EDIT: "I have read that treaty!" @ 0:30 Hahahaha well done mate

More importantly have you read the treaty?

There is a bit of discussion about on this thread.

 

[KUNG FU]

If he accepted the principles of realism, he would accept that the great powers will only abide by the treaty to which it reflects their own perceived interests. Now whether this treaty does reflect those interests or not is not the point, the economic and scientific arguments should be the crux of his argument (and I would assume they were, but the editting of this video probably makes him seem more of an "alarmist" than he perhaps intended). Pursuing the issue along these lines is a dead-end. The second the US sees the cost/benefit analysis of the Copenhagen scheme tilting into the red they will walk away. They may cede wealth, certain short/medium-term decision-making but they do not cede sovereignty.

I haven't read the treaty, but that doesn't change my opinion that sovereignty cannot be ceded by it in the sense that realists perceive it.

 

[bit_pattern]

Plagarism is a rather serious charge BP.

Rather ironic considering the title of this thread!

But, yes, it is a serious charge and let's hope Adelaide University has the balls to stand up and reprimand him as they should.

It seems that the main reason He assumes that that Plimer stole Enderbee's work is the discrepancy in the numbers.

I took the trouble to download the file and check the numbers.

This is what I got , feel free to check yourself.

I.*    1
I..    1102
.D*    15
.D.    866
.U*    12
.U.    1085
.V.    655
..*    38
...    5010
    
total    8784

The readme is very obtuse .

The only category clearly "rejected" is the ".U."
If you took this part at face value not knowing what we know now (that all flagged data is tossed) it is feasible to think that the ".D."'s are used.

I cannot seem to find any reference to the "*" in either the readme or the update file.

I would assume that it marks revisions as the 2004 file was
"File Creation: Fri Apr 10 13:06:18 2009"

Maybe. But any good researcher that suspects there might be a problem could easily contact NOAA for themselves and get clarification, which is exactly what Engelbeen did, but Plimer - being the sensationalist hack that he is - chose to ignore tha.t And considering that we now know Engelbeen did seek clarification, we really have to question Plimer's motivation for not doing so, the obvious answer is that he is trying to manipulate facts to present them as if there is a conspiracy where there simply isn't. This is just one among a litany of lies, manipulations and errors that Plimer uses to present his argument. His motivation has never been to enlighten but to obfuscate, because he is in the business of selling doubt, not accurately interpreting a complex science.

 

[Transl8]

ice melts when it heats up

the degree of melting going on is enough evidence for me

 

[bit_pattern]

And in other news, dog bites man...

Statisticians reject global cooling
By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Have you heard that the world is now cooling instead of warming? You may have seen some news reports on the Internet or heard about it from a provocative new book. Only one problem: It's not true, according to an analysis of the numbers done by several independent statisticians for The Associated Press.

 

[Ripper]

BP, Have you read this?

It is written by Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc.
Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory,
Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria.

Only the Russians are able to tell the truth without losing their jobs.

And have you been following the latest revelations about gisstemp?

 

[bit_pattern]

BP, Have you read this?

It is written by Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc.
Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory,
Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria.

Only the Russians are able to tell the truth without losing their jobs.

I haven't, my download limit is maxed out at over 99% percent and that PDF is too big. I'll have a look at the end of the month.

But wasn't our Russian friend pushing the solar Mars melt myth that was roundly dismissed by by his peers a few years back?

I'm sure whatever whacky shit he's pushing this year should be good for a laugh, the Russian's really do produce some odd-ball characters. And rather than being a paragon of free speech (you know you're arguments are in trouble when you have to point to Russia as having more open and independent academia, it's a trait shared by most conspiracy theories, trying to lend their cause credence by digging up crazy Russian scientists willing to put their name to anything), Russian academia is much more likely to be bent to the will of the state.

And have you been following the latest revelations about gisstemp?

I'd hardly call the ramblings of of a rank amateur "revelations" about anything. Like I said last time, rather slandering NASA in public without even giving them a right of reply why don't you try something novel like emailing them and asking for clarification about the error you think you are seeing, you might just find that it is you who is mistaken.

 

[bit_pattern]

Meanwhile, the real world rolls on...

Drought brings nation's biggest cotton farm to the brink

October 29, 2009 - 9:45AM
Australia's largest cotton farm, Cubbie Station, has gone into administration with the drought bringing it to the brink of collapse.

And ENSO continues to pick up strength, which should start bringing record temps, once again reaffirming the clear causation between ENSO and temp variability and should hopefully kill the global "cooling" canard once and for all.

This sea surface temperature (SST) data is from the NOAA’s October 26 weekly update on the El Niño/Southern oscillation, “ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions“:

It is the warming in the Nino 3.4 region of the Pacific that is typically used to define an El Niño. The region can be seen in this figure:

 

[Transl8]

What a crock of shit. Life expectancy in developed nations, ie the heavy users of fossil fuels, is far higher than the third world. The benefits of cheap and plentiful energy far outweighs any detriments.

thats because our goverments subside health care...we get our medications and treatments for free which means when you get sick you can go to the doc and get free treatment...they call it 'medicare'

try getting needed medical treatment in a 3rd world nation!

 

[bit_pattern]

LOL, Briffa REALLY responds

Examining the validity of the published RCS Yamal tree-ring chronology

Keith R. Briffaa and Thomas M. Melvina​

With thanks to Timothy J. Osborna, Philip D. Jonesa, Rashit M. Hantemirovb, Stepan Shiyatovb and Vladimir V. Shishovc,d.​

[SIZE=-2] a Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
b Laboratory Of Dendrochronology, Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 8 Marta St., Ekaterinburg, 620144, Russia
c Dendroecology Department, Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Akademgorodok St., Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russia
d IT and Math. Modelling Department, Krasnoyarsk State Trade-Economical Institute, L. Prushinskoi St., Krasnoyarsk, 660075, Russia [/SIZE]

Abstract

At http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7168, Steve McIntyre reports an analysis he undertook to test the "sensitivity" of the "Regional Curve Standardised" tree-ring chronology (Briffa, 2000; Briffa at al., 2008) to the selection of measurement data intended to provide evidence of long-term changes of tree growth, and, ultimately inferred temperature variation through two millennia in the Yamal region of northern Russia. It would be a mistake to conclude that McIntyre's sensitivity analysis provides evidence to refute our current interpretation of relatively high tree growth and summer warmth in the 20th century in this region. A reworked chronology, based on additional data, including those used in McIntyre's analysis, is similar to our previously published chronologies. Our earlier work thus provides a defensible and reasonable indication of tree growth changes during the 20th century and in the context of long-term changes reconstructed over the last two millennia in the vicinity of the larch tree line in southern Yamal. McIntyre's use of the data from a single, more spatially restricted site, to represent recent tree growth over the wider region, and his exclusion of the data from the other available sites, likely represents a biased reconstruction of tree growth. McIntyre's sensitivity analysis has little implication, either for the interpretation of the Yamal chronology or for other proxy studies that make use of it.

 

[Ripper]

LOL, Briffa REALLY responds

You are a bit late.

Climate Audit has already discussed this .

Briffa's statement contradicts empirical observations at CA 7229 in only a couple of places and, in each case, I can demonstrate that Briffa is wrong. Both errors are relevant.

What are your thoughts on this?

Dr Schmidt wishes us to point out that he is not "involved" in Dr Hansen' s GISS temperature record, which is one of the four official sources of global temperature data relied on by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and by governments all over the world. I am of course happy to publish the correction he asked for, but I am intrigued that Dr Schmidt should want to dissociate himself from this increasingly controversial source of temperature figures

Do you think it has anything to do with all the dodginess exhibited here.

   % of Thermometers by altitude
      Year -MSL    20   50  100  200  300  400  500 1000 2000  Space

DAltPct: 1989  38.5 33.4 12.2  8.3  1.4  0.5  0.9  3.0  1.9  0.0  0.0

ALT pct: 1990  38.6 33.5 12.7  8.1  1.3  0.4  0.8  3.0  1.7  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1991  39.6 38.5 15.4  4.4  0.0  0.0  0.0  2.2  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1992  40.0 38.0 16.0  4.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  2.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1993  34.5 43.1 15.5  5.2  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.7  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1994  34.5 43.1 15.5  5.2  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.7  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1995  40.0 38.0 16.0  4.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  2.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1996  34.5 43.1 15.5  5.2  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.7  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1997  34.5 43.1 15.5  5.2  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.7  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1998  31.5 46.3 14.8  5.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.9  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 1999  31.5 46.3 14.8  5.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.9  0.0  0.0  0.0

DAltPct: 1999  36.6 39.4 14.6  5.9  0.4  0.1  0.3  2.2  0.5  0.0  0.0

ALT pct: 2000  32.1 47.2 13.2  5.7  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.9  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 2001  31.5 46.3 14.8  5.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.9  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 2002  31.5 46.3 14.8  5.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.9  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 2003  31.5 46.3 14.8  5.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.9  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 2004  31.4 49.0 11.8  5.9  0.0  0.0  0.0  2.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 2005  32.1 47.2 11.3  5.7  1.9  0.0  0.0  1.9  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 2006  32.1 47.2 11.3  5.7  1.9  0.0  0.0  1.9  0.0  0.0  0.0[B]
ALT pct: 2007  33.9 44.6 12.5  5.4  1.8  0.0  0.0  1.8  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 2008  36.7 40.8 14.3  6.1  2.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
ALT pct: 2009  36.2 42.6 14.9  4.3  2.1  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0[/B]

That is not a one off, every continent even Antarctica has lost most thermometers at altitude in Gisstemp.

The sooner CRU is forced to provide their code and data the better.

 

[bit_pattern]

You are a bit late.

Climate Audit has already discussed this .

What are your thoughts on this?

Do you think it has anything to do with all the dodginess exhibited here.

]That is not a one off, every continent even Antarctica has lost most thermometers at altitude in Gisstemp.

The sooner CRU is forced to provide their code and data the better.

My thoughts? That it was a typically Booker-ish ungraceful and hamfisted way of admitting that your wrong.

As for your temp data, that's not "dodginess". I'll once again point out how easily your have been misled by apparent anomalies in raw data in the past and I'd suggest once again rather than pointing to something you probably don't understand because you've missed some vital point as evidence of "dodginess", why don't you try emailing GISS and asking them themselves. That's if you are interested in understanding the science and not just fishing for conspiracies.

 

[bit_pattern]

What do you know then, eh?

After languishing for months, Nino 3.4 SSTs finally took off, as many models had been predicting. Last week, the anomaly was 1.1°C. This week it was 1.5°C. This SST data is from the NOAA’s October 26 weekly update on the El Niño/Southern oscillation, “ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions“:

​

If these values are maintained for any length of time, this would be a moderate to strong El Niño, as this historical graph of the 3-month running mean SST departures in Nino 3.4 region show:



NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center will be issuing its monthly ENSO analysis in a few days based on this surge in SSTs. Last month it concluded, “El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.”

Meanwhile Pure Posion are taking bets on who will be the first wingnut commentator to say that the next few years of warming aren't a product of GW but El Nino, despite spending the last five years denying ENSO and saying that there was a cooling trend.

My money is on Bolt for the Australian press, but in the denial-o-sphere we already have a weiner with Bob Tisdale:

"So there hasn’t been the anticipated rise in global temperature because, after you remove the effects of ENSO, the trend is zero. Therefore, if this year is a record year, it should be attributable to ENSO, not AGW."

 

[Ripper]

El nino is the globe cooling down, even if the atmosphere heats up temporarily. It is transferring large amounts of heat from the oceans to the Atmosphere to space.

E=MC^2

Remember there was a big El nino entering the LIA.

There is no doubt the earth has cooled substantially since the sun has gone quiet..

Coldest Arctic Summer since 1958 (at least)

Record early/late cold & snow entering the mid to high latitudes of both Hemisphere's pushing the remaining heat towards the equator.

Even here we had the lowest Sept maximum since records were kept (1926)

60% reduction in winter wheat plantings in the US.

A return to normal rainfall patterns in southern Australia.

It is going to be a fierce NH winter.

And the hottest place in Australia was still hotter in the 30's & 40's

 

[bit_pattern]

El nino is the globe cooling down, even if the atmosphere heats up temporarily. It is transferring large amounts of heat from the oceans to the Atmosphere to space.

E=MC^2

Remember there was a big El nino entering the LIA.

There is no doubt the earth has cooled substantially since the sun has gone quiet..

Coldest Arctic Summer since 1958 (at least)

Record early/late cold & snow entering the mid to high latitudes of both Hemisphere's pushing the remaining heat towards the equator.

Even here we had the lowest Sept maximum since records were kept (1926)

60% reduction in winter wheat plantings in the US.

A return to normal rainfall patterns in southern Australia.

It is going to be a fierce NH winter.

And the hottest place in Australia was still hotter in the 30's & 40's

So then why did ocean temperatures not fall significantly after the super El Nino of 1998 but rather spike dramatically? And this years ENSO won't be anything near the magnitude of 1998.

Not a very effective release of energy, certainly not enough to save us from the fact that the heat input into the climate system is constantly rising, and I'm not seeing any new, undiscovered mechanisms for releasing that heat. We have a very basic problem with thermodynamics.

As for the rest of your post, yes, we are entering a new ice age

Let's review this post in 12 months time, shall we?

 

[Ripper]

^^^ How about a Carton on it?

I see Hadcut is out for September.

Lots of gaps , they must be running out of cold thermometers to drop.

Here's Australia from the BOM

 

[bit_pattern]

^^^ How about a Carton on it?

I see Hadcut is out for September.

Lots of gaps , they must be running out of cold thermometers to drop.

Here's Australia from the BOM

Who would have thought that Thatcher was really a socialist operative who started the Hadley just to suck the world into accepting a new tax? How diabolical!

Thankfully we have a legion of battle hardened Truth Seekers fighting the beast one blog post at a time. Denial Depot have been battling away on the frontline over the last few days.

Tuesday, 3 November 2009

Met Office Hadley Admits Surface Record Is "Incorrect"

From the horses mouth itself:
A substantial proportion of the September CLIMAT monthly land station summary report data that was sent over the GTS (Global Telecommunication System) was obviously incorrect. For the past few weeks we have been liaising with the sources to gain a version that was correct. As this issue affects a substantial portion of the globe we are not in a position to release a 'global' estimate. Nor will we do so until we are satisfied that an adequate amount of verified data is present.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/
Just as I expected they are too busy "validating" the data to bother releasing it. Why not release it and let Blog Scientists search for errors? We can publish our results in the Telegraph and in an article on the Register, both Journals with a history of fair-handed reporting on the subject.
I can only guess what "liaising with the sources" means. Sounds a lot like a metaphor for "team science"
Can the IPCC finally be disbanded now?

Monday, 2 November 2009

HadCrut3 - Where the **** is my data?!

Where is the September temperature update?! It's now November.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
This is intolerable having to wait over two months for data. Where is it? You can tell I am angry! I need this data immediately for Blog Science Auditing.
I hope they aren't wasting time validating the data before they release it. I just need the data, if there's any errors in it I am sure it can be corrected shortly after release without fuss.
As this is a top science blog, why not post me your own suggestions of what the Hadley Climate Center could be doing? Remember now is the season to tie every paranoid thought to Copenhagen somehow.
I'll kick you off: Are they too busy installing their fake tree rings in Siberian forests?
Update: Another blog is also concerned http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/hadcrut-watch/

Posted by Inferno at 09:12

And, yeah, I'll happily drink your beer but it has to be good Victorian beer, none of that Swan Lager crap or anything, and preferably carbon off set too.

 

[bit_pattern]

El nino is the globe cooling down, even if the atmosphere heats up temporarily. It is transferring large amounts of heat from the oceans to the Atmosphere to space.

This is just nonsense, let's see your source. I've been doing a bit of investigation into the way the Earth absorbs and emits energy and the energy being released from the oceans is IR, exactly the sort of energy that GHG's are so efficient at trapping, so even when El Nino releases heat from the ocean a good percentage of it is still being absorbed by GHG and getting trapped in the atmosphere.

 

[Ripper]

Thanks BP illustrates what I was saying perfectly.

The only way the oceans (which cover 70% of the earths surface) can cool down is through the atmosphere.

I like Victorian beer better than WA beer.

 

[Hawkamania!]

I hope you enjoy that carton Ripper. You deserve it.

 

[bit_pattern]

Yeah, except for that layer of GHG's that traps IR and scatters it back towards Earth. You have a very basic problem of thermodynamics going on here, more energy going into a system than is going out. Now, if THAT'S proving your point then I shudder to think what other twisted misconceptions you have running around in that little brain of yours.

Why on earth would you think that an El Nino season this year will "cool" the globe when the super El Nino of 1998 didn't cool the ocean one iota, ocean temperatures continue to spike quite abruptly. I guess some people will just belive anything once they set their minds to it.

 

[Ripper]

Yeah, except for that layer of GHG's that traps IR and scatters it back towards Earth. You have a very basic problem of thermodynamics going on here, more energy going into a system than is going out. Now, if THAT'S proving your point then I shudder to think what other twisted misconceptions you have running around in that little brain of yours.

Why on earth would you think that an El Nino season this year will "cool" the globe when the super El Nino of 1998 didn't cool the ocean one iota, ocean temperatures continue to spike quite abruptly. I guess some people will just belive anything once they set their minds to it.

http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=archive&action=display&thread=362

Solar cycle 23 was still going up in 1998.