Hogan worth

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PapaJ said:
And that's how I see it. And if your team comes out and makes it more difficult next season by getting involved, so be it, but we'll still be in a better position if we're keen to get Hogan. Most likely we'll still have good cap space, we'll have better picks (WC will be top 4 you'd think, we'll likely be somewhere in the bottom 8).

Just don't panic people. We're right to ask unders - not because he's specifically worth it, but because we don't need him right now, it might actually be better not have him right now and he (or his management) haven't come out and even formally said he wants to come here. I just don't see why we should go all out to get him at this point.
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Don't get me wrong, if your medical staff (and other recruitment staff if there are any non-medical issues) have reviewed him and tell you they can get Hogan back to full fitness then you find a way to make the trade happen this year (pick 5 which you don't have and something minor is fair-ish). If they've looked at him and say "it shouullllddd be ok (maybe)" then you weigh up the risk and offer accordingly which I assume is exactly what happened.

For all the animosity between the two clubs West Coast and Freo have done a pretty good job of staying out of each others trades when the preference has been identified (Lobb and Kelly this year are prime examples). I think the chances of Hogan joining us are pretty slim (I don't think we could afford him or meet the trade requirements this year or next) but it would be hilarious if it happened.
 
Nodgey said:
Maybe also Melb have seriously back-ended his contract, and in tyring to squeeze Lobb, Coanca and Hogan in we're struggling to make all the pieces fit? Anythng's plausible.
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Wait and see if "alternative suitors" have a dash at him.
If he's worth throwing the kitchen sink at, someone else will try, even as due diligence if nothing else.
If no-one else is interested, we'll see.
 
jerms said:
As we know, Lachie is the leading possession-winner in the AFL over the last five years. This is where Jesse ranks in goalkicking over the past four years:

JJK: 274
Buddy: 258
Bruno: 226
Betts: 222
Hawkins: 212
Cameron: 207
Jenkins: 199
BBB: 197
Roughead: 197
Bruest: 186
Tex: 186
Gunston: 178
Tom Lynch: 173
Stringer: 152
Hogan: 152
Daniher: 150
LeCras: 147
Dixon: 146
Wingard: 137
Bruce: 128
Membrey: 125
Waite: 125
Sonny: 124
The other Tom Lynch: 121

In other words, his output has been somewhere in the range of Jake Stringer, Mark LeCras and Charlie Dixon. Yet Melbourne carries on as if he's this irreplaceable (yet perversely tradeable) freakish once-in-a-generation talent - he's averaged six goals a year more than Josh bloody Bruce. Shouldn't budge on pick 5 unless it's only pick 5, and even then...
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So you're saying he would have been our best goalkicker by a mile, starting from his first year in the AFL as a teenager. Yeah he's not worth shit
 

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Well I am happy the new recruiting team are not selling the farm on Hogan. I’d love to have him here but not at any cost.

It seems Melbourne have demanded 5&6 from the outset but if we are dinkum about holding on to Neale then there is no way we can could up with this. Trading down 6 to the mix of picks from Port made it impossible but I think it was the right call to widen up our options in the draft or for other trades.

Had Lobb not lobbed on us we would no doubt be more motivated to find a way to meet what Melbourne want but never at 5&6 did this make sense given we only held one of those picks. They may have modified that to 2 first round picks but even that is a stretch given recent injury issues and the fact that they are selling and we are not now a distressed buyer.

Melbourne rejected the Freo offer that was 11 and something else (unders to some extent) and held their line at 2 first rounders. Bell and co rightly said this is not a hostage situation for us so thanks but no thanks. I don’t see what is wrong with this and certainly there is no obligation for Freo to satisfy Melbourne or Hogan at any cost.
 
GoFreo4eva said:
Well I am happy the new recruiting team are not selling the farm on Hogan. I’d love to have him here but not at any cost.

It seems Melbourne have demanded 5&6 from the outset but if we are dinkum about holding on to Neale then there is no way we can could up with this. Trading down 6 to the mix of picks from Port made it impossible but I think it was the right call to widen up our options in the draft or for other trades.

Had Lobb not lobbed on us we would no doubt be more motivated to find a way to meet what Melbourne want but never at 5&6 did this make sense given we only held one of those picks. They may have modified that to 2 first round picks but even that is a stretch given recent injury issues and the fact that they are selling and we are not now a distressed buyer.

Melbourne rejected the Freo offer that was 11 and something else (unders to some extent) and held their line at 2 first rounders. Bell and co rightly said this is not a hostage situation for us so thanks but no thanks. I don’t see what is wrong with this and certainly there is no obligation for Freo to satisfy Melbourne or Hogan at any cost.
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Yes, let's be content to average 10 goals a game for the next 15 years, who needs forwards anyway?
 
Redgum said:
I don't why but I feel a huge sense of relief that it has fallen over,dodged a bullet I reckon. Just get a good deal for Neale ,grab lobb and Langdon and head off to the draft and nab a top 10 draftee,like a King !
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Yeah, grab an Eastern Sates based twin and separate him from his brother, great draft strategy..do we also want the King that has already done an ACL????
 
Rion said:
I don't like it personally (assuming he passed the medical).
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Even if he passed the medical, what does that mean? His foot is unlikely to have been fully healed by now.

Imagine if Eagles had put Naitanui on the trade table at the end of last year. Remember all that vision of him doing leg presses and high intensity exercises to test the knee? It looked as if he was a decent chance of returning to full fitness. But not only was he a reduced player this year, but he ended up doing the other knee.

The fact is, if you get injured, for some reason those injuries will recur. Do a hammy once and you'll most probably have hammies for the rest of your life. Do a knee, and you'll probably end up doing that knee again, and your other knee (more than if you'd never done it). Strain a calf and you'll have calf issues the rest of your career - as we've seen with Bennell.

I don't know what the recurrence rate and recovery chances are for navicular injuries that aren't career ending, but the navicular is so often a career ending injury that even if a doctor said "this is healing fine" or "this has healed" a club would be nuts to pay full price for the player.

If there were zero doubts about his health and fitness, we'd pay the price.
 
Grape Bear said:
We can have Hogan rolled in gold but if we have no good mids to kick it in, we’ll still be shit.

Which is why there should be a ceiling to how much we would be willing to pay as a rebuilding team. There is no messiah.
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Yes exactly this - the club clearly has had a policy over the last few years of going to the draft, and only trading in players where a fair deal can be made (Wilson, Hamling etc). Two first round picks for Hogan is not a fair deal, would be much better taking those picks to the draft, and then trying to get Hogan as a free agent next year and let the AFL decide what compo pick to give Melbourne. I think it's really as simple as that. The club has a plan and are sticking to it.
 
Midnite65 said:
Yes, let's be content to average 10 goals a game for the next 15 years, who needs forwards anyway?
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Boy some people love to leap to the most pessimistic of outcomes very quickly. Adding Hogan may potentially increase our scoring output but also my make little or no difference. Nobody can be sure on this.

Have you ever negotiated for anything significant because right now I know where you can buy a bridge! In all likelihood this is negotiating tactic that spells out to Melbourne we won’t be brow beaten into a deal that is over the odds. Chances are this time next week a deal of some sort will be done but not at the unders we have so far offered not and the overs Melbourne have wanted so far.
 
Come in peace.

I'm suspicious of any team that voluntarily invites an offer on a potential 60-80 goal forward when they are in premiership contention in 2019.

Something doesn't feel right.

You wouldn't know it by the Melb media though, apparently you guys are KRAZY!! for not giving up a pick 5, that pick you don't have.
 
Megalon said:
Yes exactly this - the club clearly has had a policy over the last few years of going to the draft, and only trading in players where a fair deal can be made (Wilson, Hamling etc). Two first round picks for Hogan is not a fair deal, would be much better taking those picks to the draft, and then trying to get Hogan as a free agent next year and let the AFL decide what compo pick to give Melbourne. I think it's really as simple as that. The club has a plan and are sticking to it.
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Considering we've lost our list manager, footy manager and likely our BnF winner that plan is looking a little shaky though isn't it?

What I like about the Hogan deal is it turns a massive negative (Neale leaving) into a massive positive. Going back to the draft with the picks and all but guaranteeing another poor season doesn't exactly look like a positive for mine.
 

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passmark said:
Come in peace.

I'm suspicious of any team that voluntarily invites an offer on a potential 60-80 goal forward when they are in premiership contention in 2019.

Something doesn't feel right.

You wouldn't know it by the Melb media though, apparently you guys are KRAZY!! for not giving up a pick 5, that pick you don't have.
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GTFO and take your functioning brain with you.
 
My understanding is that Freo have ceased the due diligence process for Hogan. I might add that he has never come out and declared (like Shiel has and Wingard has) that he wants to be traded to Freo.

Freo were looking at a very high salary, there were obviously some red flags from the medical (despite reportedly passing) and then to add to it Freo advised that the price set by Melbourne which (everything I read was they wanted 5&6 or least 5&11&change; ie two first round picks).

Old Dazza Barrett, Tommy Morris and Shooter McClure are loving this - pulling out that Melbourne would have accepted 5&23. For a start we don’t have Pick 5, and are obviously convinced rightly or wrongly that we can talk Neale into staying.

I don’t know who started the 5&23 rumour. Probably the same person that started We rejected Brisbane’ offer of 5&24. I guess the truth will come out in due course.

I think people need to chill out and see what comes at the end of trade week.
 
pjcrows said:
Huge props to Bell. He's smart. Playing it beautifully - offer up what you think is fair for someone who is talented but a risk, and then hooooold right until the end. You'll most likely get him purely because Melbourne don't really want him, and they'll cave.
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Yep the old game of poker. If it happens it will happen at a value closer to what we believe is fair. I have no idea what May is thinking and whether he desperately wants to leave GCS.

Once Neale tells Belly over the weekend that he is definitely gone and we deal on Neale finally on Tue afternoon or Wed morning Josh Mahoney might come knocking.

Brisbane don’t seem to be making too many moves themselves or offers to get this happening. The only official one I have seen was pick 5 on it’s own which Freo indicated wouldnt consider.
 
Fryman said:
Cool story - except that’s Jesse’s first four years. Pavlich first 4 years - 89 goals, Hogan - 152. Freo btfo’d themselves.
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Shouldn't you be off celebrating the fact that you finally, FINALLY landed your big fish, an injury-riddled and well past it Hannebery? It's not Fyfe, Neale, Martin or Kelly but hey, it's something right?
 
Fryman said:
Cool story - except that’s Jesse’s first four years. Pavlich first 4 years - 89 goals, Hogan - 152. Freo btfo’d themselves.
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Were any of the subsequent three seasons any better than his first? Rhys Palmer won a Rising Star too - it's meaningless if they don't get any better, and it's not demonstrable that Jesse has so far.

Besides, I don't really need to be argued with by a Saints fan on our own board. Get f*cked.
 

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