- Aug 13, 2017
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Reckon he well and truly has..
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Hogan worth
- Thread starter mayne iac
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The stuff of nightmares. GWS saved our ass.
Not really, partly because I'm not really a betting man, partly because I hope Neale stays.
But I am still utterly convinced he's requested a trade. Of course the club can tell him to GAGF given he remains under contract.
Can you walk into the club tomorrow and demand to be in charge of trading!!!
Although I'd play hardball with 10 + 11 (which Port don't even have yet) and see how long it takes for Melb to flinch. I'd happily go to the draft with 5, 10 & 11.
Whatever happens we shouldn't be giving up 2019 1st rounder. That could realistically be pick #1.
- Apr 12, 2014
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If you offer us pick 5 and tell us its that or nothing how does that look to Hogans management and the rest of the league?
'We value you at over 1m per year for 5 years but won't part with more than pick 5, so you can rot at Melbourne in 2019 and then we'll try again when the Eagles get involved'.
Make no mistake I don't think we'll get 5 and 6 (I'd obviously love that
) but I'm very confident it'll be 2 1sts, with perhaps something coming back from us. This is your big chance to finally land a guy you've been chasing for 5 years, you won't risk the deal not going through.edit - his foot is fine, club publicly said like a month ago he'd be right for day 1 of preseason but since we know how bad the injury CAN be we were being super conservative making him sit out the rest of the year.
- Apr 29, 2016
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2013 Draft
Pick 5: Kade Kolodjashnij
Pick 6: Scharenberg
2014
Pick 5: Degoey
Pick 6: Marchbank
2015
Pick 5: Parish
Pick 6: Francis
2016
Pick 5: Setterfield
Pick 6: Petrevski-Seaton
Please understand the true value of the draft before pretending that hogan isn't worth 2 first rounders.
If you offer us pick 5 and tell us its that or nothing how does that look to Hogans management and the rest of the league?
'We value you at over 1m per year for 5 years but won't part with more than pick 5, so you can rot at Melbourne in 2019 and then we'll try again when the Eagles get involved'.
Make no mistake I don't think we'll get 5 and 6 (I'd obviously love that
edit - his foot is fine, club publicly said like a month ago he'd be right for day 1 of preseason but since we know how bad the injury CAN be we were being super conservative making him sit out the rest of the year.
Personally I'm not worried about the Eagles getting involved. If the demons want to trade with the eagles they are going to have to be happy with 2x picks in the mid to high teens and if that's his price then why should Freo pay 2x top 5?
Hogan doesn't turn us into a top 4 side next year and we will still be able to have another crack next year when he's out of contract.
I hope the deal gets done and feel 2x 1st rounders is fair but it should be 10 + 11 and something very late in return.
- Sep 15, 2013
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Was this ever confirmed? Not that I have seen and really does anyone think GWS would have knocked back that deal?
- Apr 12, 2014
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If the Eagles get involved and sell Jesse a better deal he will nominate them and you'll look like absolute fools. Freo won't take any risks that this doesn't get done this year.
Turns out clubs have decided that Neale compensation is going to Melbourne and Fremantle have left it up to Melbourne to deal with the Lions. In a strange turn of events Brisbane has decided to go with the Brisbane bigfooty boards public opinion on the matter. Brisbane board is thataway----->
Will we though? If we offer a fair trade as I suggested and Melb say no but then give him to eagles for less it would be melb that look foolish.
And let's be honest here, the eagles have a bunch of quality players on their list. There's no chance they can offer a better deal than us we have zero cap space problems.
- Sep 15, 2013
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Yep and Freo would be insane not to get it done while the opportunity exists..
You could theorize that Melbourne knew he was going and wanted to get finals experience into players that were going help them in the years to come.
- Mar 30, 2013
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Here is a nice place for Freo HQ. Its for lease too.
Are we that desperate to pay overs for any West Aussie that wants home war wounds and all.
It is not working out, if they are not injured the others seem to go MIA quite a bit.
Are we that desperate to pay overs for any West Aussie that wants home war wounds and all.
It is not working out, if they are not injured the others seem to go MIA quite a bit.
How I see it is the injury, the go-home factor and Melbourne doing what's right by him would be the case used from countering the trade of 5+6 being asked to 5+22. I hope. That's what I want to happen, although I think since Saints/GCS won't deal with PA/ADE we will likely end up offering something else.
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I've gone back and forth over this and will probably change direction again.
Supporters notoriously overrate high draft picks, there was a pretty good study in the US which showed that a couple of second round picks have more value than a single first round pick, I can't think of too many reasons why that wouldn't be somewhat relevant to the AFL.
The first question we have to ask ourselves is whether Hogan has more value than Neale, from a stats perspective and track record you could argue he does not. Melbourne supporters will rightly argue there is far more upside with Hogan than Neale.
Freo should push hard to limit whatever we pay for Hogan at what we receive for Neale, Neale out and Hogan in, in my opinion, improves our team.
I suspect we'll end up handing over whatever we receive for Neale plus something substantial (without it being a top 10 pick), it certainly shouldn't be our own first pick nor our first pick next year, beyond that I'd be ok with the deal.
Supporters notoriously overrate high draft picks, there was a pretty good study in the US which showed that a couple of second round picks have more value than a single first round pick, I can't think of too many reasons why that wouldn't be somewhat relevant to the AFL.
The first question we have to ask ourselves is whether Hogan has more value than Neale, from a stats perspective and track record you could argue he does not. Melbourne supporters will rightly argue there is far more upside with Hogan than Neale.
Freo should push hard to limit whatever we pay for Hogan at what we receive for Neale, Neale out and Hogan in, in my opinion, improves our team.
I suspect we'll end up handing over whatever we receive for Neale plus something substantial (without it being a top 10 pick), it certainly shouldn't be our own first pick nor our first pick next year, beyond that I'd be ok with the deal.
**** that, if I am giving them 5 + 7(or higher) I want their 2019 first, 33 and their 3rd this year. Their 2nd will probably end up in the 30s.
Also, I don't give any ****s as to how many 1st rounders Melbourne have to use. They can figure that out themselves.
I would take five of those eight together, throw in Stephenson & Cerra, that makes it seven of 10. Like I said, for potentially 24 years of a combined positive contribution. Hogan can probably provide 8 years at the very most.
He would barely scrape into the top 10 forwards in the league and you're telling me 'I need to understand true value'?
https://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=30427
For those of you that undervalue draft picks, or having a diverse approach to recruiting.
If we go all in on Hogan, especially after losing Neale, it will more than likely not work out.
For those of you that undervalue draft picks, or having a diverse approach to recruiting.
If we go all in on Hogan, especially after losing Neale, it will more than likely not work out.
- Apr 29, 2016
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You rave on about him only being able to offer 8 years of service. he's a key position player! If you pick up one of the king brothers, they're going to take many years to bulk up and develop anyway so your logic is flawed. If you want 12 years of service pick up a midfielder and enjoy taberner for the next 8 years.
Oh FFS I can't believe the moaning on here over getting Hogan. If he wants to come to us and we have the chance to get him we simply have to get it done.
He's a top tier key forward and we're crying out for one.
If we were to draft the best key fwds in this year they'd take years to develop to the level he's currently at. And that's assuming they live up to the hype. They could just as well struggle like other early forwards picked like Watts, McCartin, Schache, Boyd, Gumbleton etc. That's also assuming they stay.
Mids historically have an impact much earlier, look at Oliver, Cripps, Taranto, McCluggage at the end of this year for examples.
I'm confident it's better to get a developed Hogan in and have him for 7+ years and pick up mids late or in future years.
He's a top tier key forward and we're crying out for one.
If we were to draft the best key fwds in this year they'd take years to develop to the level he's currently at. And that's assuming they live up to the hype. They could just as well struggle like other early forwards picked like Watts, McCartin, Schache, Boyd, Gumbleton etc. That's also assuming they stay.
Mids historically have an impact much earlier, look at Oliver, Cripps, Taranto, McCluggage at the end of this year for examples.
I'm confident it's better to get a developed Hogan in and have him for 7+ years and pick up mids late or in future years.
Not setting the world on fire with those examples...
