Toast How can this Hawthorn side be stopped?

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Biggy_Boy said:
Over-confidence? Mate, this is a thread of Hawks fans proclaiming themselves a flag chance when there's a very real chance they won't make the 8.
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Nah it was created by a Pies supporter who is trying to piece together what happened after last week’s demolition. Hawks supporters don’t get tattoos on their arms before getting flags - youse do
 
hk89 said:
As crazy as the season has been, we'd be incredibly unlucky to miss out with 14 wins, so I think we can still afford to lose another game. 4 wins and we might even be finishing top 4 if we get some big percentage boosters in those wins (probably more likely to miss top 4 on percentage if we do go 4/4 from here though.

In fact it doesn't take much luck to have us still make it with only 2 more wins. Teams around us have tougher runs than us, including games against each other. If we don't get smashed, and get decent wins in the two games we do win, we could easily finish above a team like Port on %. Definitely more reliant on other results, but not a hail mary either, but yes, most likely 3 wins will be needed.
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Dewyyyyy said:
There’s a lot of 50/50s you have given to teams around Hawthorn, same for no upsets which will happen with some of the inconsistent sides (Port, Melb etc).

Hawthorn win a minimum of 13, and that’s enough to squeeze in if it goes right. Win 1 against GWS (8 point game) or Carlton, and they will make it. This doesn’t include % v North and Richmond.
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We play GWS @ Manuka. Last time we played there we won. Ground shouldn't be an issue unlike Giants stadium where we struggle. We win this week we just need to comfortably beat Roos and Tigers and we will make it. 1 of the next 2 matches could be irrelevant with a loss.
 
hk89 said:
You described Lions as flying when we beat them. I disagree. Smashing the side that is currently in spoon position (who at the time were completely injury riddled) does not erase their poor record up to that point, they were not flying, they were flopping. I don't even see how the point is arguable.

In any case, as I said, we'll have a much better idea where we sit in terms of competitiveness with the top 8 after the next two weeks. Geelong was our biggest challenge in the last few months, and it didn't go well.
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Fagan himself said they were, 2 wins 1 draw before the game against Hawthorn and haven’t lost since.
 
In response to the thread title, the key to beating them is to take their game away by dominating them in the aerial contest. The team must continuously take away their exit kick on the wing and quickly return the ball forward and mount pressure on their backline.

Adelaide did this well on the weekend but were only able to sustain enough aerial dominance and defensive pressure for a quarter. Once the hawks got their game going it was like some of Hawthorn's defenders didn't even have opponents and nek minite the entire Hawks team was running circles around Adelaide.

Freo did it well against them too but could but sustain it for 3 quarters.

Geelong did it very well for an entire match.

If pressure drops off, and the Hawks manage to spread the game out before half time it is game over.
 
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Dewyyyyy said:
Fagan himself said they were, 2 wins 1 draw before the game against Hawthorn and haven’t lost since.
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I didn't say Fagan was lying. All those things can be true and Brisbane may have been going poorly when we played them. As I've already pointed out, the two wins and a draw were against 3 teams currently in the bottom 6. The draw was against a current bottom 4 side. These are not the results of a team that is 'flying' given that prior to those wins (and a draw) against cellar dwellers they had gone 2 wins from 7 games.

It was a good win, but I think you're employing a good deal of hyperbole if you want to characterise Brisbane as "in form" when we played. Their loss against us appears to have kickstarted them into form.

The reality is, we are yet to beat any side currently in the top 8 when we had to play them outside Melbourne or UTAS. In fact we've been lucky not to have had too many such games. We came oh-so-close against Port, but got smashed by Geelong and GC when playing outside of Melbourne. Also lost to Pies at a neutral ground when travelling. We've obviously improved since the GC game, but the Geelong game shows we still have a gap between us and the top teams when not playing on our ground (or when the top team is having a form lull).

I think you're being blindly optimistic. Yes, we're playing good footy, but I don't think it is a massive stretch to say we've not often been as tested as we could be due to when and where we've played some of the top 8 sides we've beaten. When we have come up against teams in form on their home decks, it has not been pretty (the Port loss is probably the best effort in this regard, but Port have been patchy all year, and they are still the most likely team for us to displace from the 8 IMO if we keep winning).
 
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hk89 said:
I didn't say Fagan was lying. All those things can be true and Brisbane may have been going poorly when we played them. As I've already pointed out, the two wins and a draw were against 3 teams currently in the bottom 6. The draw was against a current bottom 4 side. These are not the results of a team that is 'flying' given that prior to those wins (and a draw) against cellar dwellers they had gone 2 wins from 7 games.

It was a good win, but I think your employing a good deal of hyperbole if you want to characterise Brisbane as "in form" when we played. Their loss against us appears to have kickstarted them into form.

The reality is, we are yet to beat any side currently in the top 8 when we had to play them outside Melbourne or UTAS. In fact we've been lucky not to have had too many such games. We came oh-so-close against Port, but got smashed by Geelong and GC when playing outside of Melbourne. Also lost to Pies at a neutral ground when travelling. We've obviously improved since the GC game, but the Geelong game shows we still have a gap between us and the top teams when not playing on our ground (or when the top team is having a form lull).

I think you're being blindly optimistic. Yes, we're playing good footy, but I don't think it is a massive stretch to say we've not often been as tested as we could be due to when and where we've played some of the top 8 sides we've beaten. When we have come up against teams in form on their home decks, it has not been pretty (the Port loss is probably the best effort in this regard, but Port have been patchy all year, and they are still the most likely team for us to displace from the 8 IMO if we keep winning).
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You’re reading too much into it. Hawthorn haven’t magically gotten sides to play worse against them or whilst out of form. The whole year every team has been inconsistent. No team has been consistently top, even Sydney are dropping off. You could say anyone who loses is just out of form, but that’s just not the case.
 
Dewyyyyy said:
You’re reading too much into it. Hawthorn haven’t magically gotten sides to play worse against them or whilst out of form.
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Of course not, it didn't happen magically, it happened largely by luck, which is my point.

If you want to stick to your story on Lions 'flying' when we played them, I suggest you look at Fagan's post-game presser after that game. He spent a big chunk of the presser fielding questions about their struggling form line, and whether they could get back on track. Fagan didn't disagree they were struggling, and mentioned a few factors such as the impact of their 5-acl injury list.

And here are some quotes from Alistair Lynch around the topic of Lions form after the game on the fox webpage:
“They’re misfiring — they’ve been misfiring all year.

“I mean, they won by 119 points last week, and with due respect to Richmond, you can’t really take a lot out of that.

“There’s a lack of confidence at the moment. I think — and it’s not to blame the young fellas at all — but it’s almost like the more experienced players don’t quite trust the young players that are playing next to them now.


“Their system’s fallen down, and some of their really good players are struggling.”

Sound like a team that is flying? Just admit you were exaggerating...
 
hk89 said:
Of course not, it didn't happen magically, it happened largely by luck, which is my point.

If you want to stick to your story on Lions 'flying' when we played them, I suggest you look at Fagan's post-game presser after that game. He spent a big chunk of the presser fielding questions about their struggling form line, and whether they could get back on track. Fagan didn't disagree they were struggling, and mentioned a few factors such as the impact of their 5-acl injury list.

And here are some quotes from Alistair Lynch around the topic of Lions form after the game on the fox webpage:
“They’re misfiring — they’ve been misfiring all year.

“I mean, they won by 119 points last week, and with due respect to Richmond, you can’t really take a lot out of that.

“There’s a lack of confidence at the moment. I think — and it’s not to blame the young fellas at all — but it’s almost like the more experienced players don’t quite trust the young players that are playing next to them now.


“Their system’s fallen down, and some of their really good players are struggling.”

Sound like a team that is flying? Just admit you were exaggerating...
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Between the 3 games before and the game against Hawthorn they’ve lost 1 game, against Hawthorn. If you watched the press conference you’d realise that not long after that Fagan stated that they were in decent form and finding good form and the only blip had been the Hawthorn loss.

The fact of trying to discredit the wins against top sides is just not justified.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Nah, not enough A grade talent on their list. Well coached but line for line a long way off some of the other top 8 teams.
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They need Will Day to become an out and out superstar. Hes very good right now, but they need another level, he needs to be able to put the team on his back and get them over the line like a Bont or something can do.

i think theyve got enough in every line, especially with McCabe and Dear coming in last year as f/s to cover their biggest list holes.

If they get Barrass or Battle and they can get Lewis healthy (unlikely) I think theyre ready to go to the next level.
So maybe 1 piece off

Wouldnt be surprised to see a dip next year though as young teams can do
 
Hannebrake said:
In response to the thread title, the key to beating them is to their game away by dominating them in the aerial contest. The team must continuously take away their exit kick on the wing and quickly return the ball forward and mount pressure on their backline.

Adelaide did this well on the weekend but were only able to sustain enough aerial dominance and defensive pressure for a quarter. Once the hawks got their game going it was like some of Hawthorn's defenders didn't even have opponents and nek minite the entire Hawks team was running circles around Adelaide.

Freo did it well against them too but could but sustain it for 3 quarters.

Geelong did it very well for an entire match.

If pressure drops off, and the Hawks manage to spread the game out before half time it is game over.
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Good post and Crows did this well yesterday in first Quarter. The thing Hawthorn has at their disposal is gut running however which means the talls run out of steam
 
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stallon said:
They need Will Day to become an out and out superstar. Hes very good right now, but they need another level, he needs to be able to put the team on his back and get them over the line like a Bont or something can do.

i think theyve got enough in every line, especially with McCabe and Dear coming in last year as f/s to cover their biggest list holes.

If they get Barrass or Battle and they can get Lewis healthy (unlikely) I think theyre ready to go to the next level.
So maybe 1 piece off

Wouldnt be surprised to see a dip next year though as young teams can do
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This isn’t far off from the view of most reasonable Hawks fans. A couple pieces off
 
threesixpio said:
I think he was talking more about Cat over confidence rather than Hawks doing well. See attached photo above
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I don't think being confident of winning a hypothetical finals game against a side we've taken 8 points off this season, at an average of 45 points is over-confidence. It's just reality for 2024.

What 2025 and beyond holds is another matter.
 

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Toast How can this Hawthorn side be stopped?

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