How high can Carlton go in '08?

[Marc Shmurf 3]

Pretty cocky for a team on a double digit losing streak.
Bottom 4. Lock it in

Pretty cocky from a team that finished behind a team that supposedly "TANKED" throughout the 2nd half of the year.

How does it feel???

 

[Kruze]

Ah hum!!!!

Rattens'record: 0-6???????????????

we didn't get smashed, played the kids last six rounds. Fev's season ended early -went into surgery to be ready for '08..sound familiar, hypocrite?

 

[Marc Shmurf 3]

im expecting anywhere between 8 (everything has to go well though) and 12th

 

[Heisenberg_]

Pretty cocky from a team that finished behind a team that supposedly "TANKED" throughout the 2nd half of the year.

How does it feel???

How am I being cocky?
I am talking about Carlton, not Richmond.

Dumb shit

 

[marcmurphy3]

If all these things happen:

- Judd and Stevens both return to full capacity
- Murphy and Gibbs development is accelerated as much as can be reasonably expected, and become fully-fledged midfield stars
- Fevola is injury (physical and mental) free, and returns to his '06 form
- Fisher plays as well as he did in 07
- Hampson bulks up and becomes a ruck option, Cloke stays in injury-free as a backup and Kreuzer is AFL-ready
- O'Hailpin keeps developing and can hold down a KP defence spot, Jamison bulks up and becomes another KP option
- Walker realises his potential
- Waite finds some consistency
- One or more of Grigg, Hartlett, Anderson, Bower, Bentick, Wiggins takes a big step forward and becomes a decent player
- Ratten proves himself to be a competent coach, and demonstrates that the horrific coaching errors he made late in 2007 (leaving 3rd-gamer Jamison on Matthew Lloyd one-out in the last quarter, playing Saddington on Rocca and not O'Hailpin, failing to rotate the midfield against Port) were in fact deliberate ploys as part of a 'tanking' strategy, and not just evidence he can't coach.

If all that happens, Carlton will be a top 4 team. Likelihood of that occuring? Probably 1 in 1000.

More realistically:
- One of Judd/Stevens misses 8 games or more. The other returns to 75-80% capacity in the short term
- Murphy and Gibbs continue to develop steadily. Murphy rises to 'star' status, Gibbs remains 12 months away
- Fevola has 4 absolutely dominant games, 4 games where he flips out and moons the crowd or abuses the coach, misses 3 games through injury and 2 through suspension, and wins the Coleman medal.
- Fisher drops back to being solid but nothing more
- Hampson is still 2 years away. Cloke plays 5 games, then gets injured because he is undersized. Kreuzer isn't AFL ready. Carlton use a combination of O'Hailpin and Ackland in the ruck again
- O'Hailpin plays in the ruck instead of defence. This leaves Thornton/Jamison outmatched, pinches Waite from attack and the defence again struggles
- Walker confirms the general bigfooty opinion to be correct
- Waite has 3 great games in a row from rounds 6-8, which prompts everyone to announce his 'arrival'. He then goes missing for the next 4 matches, spends 3 weeks in defence, goes missing for another 5 games, then plays a blinder in round 22
- Grigg looks good but does stupid things. The rest get delisted at the end of the year
- Ratten confirms my suspicions and proves that his 0-6 coaching record in 2007 wasn't out of character

If, as I suspect is more likely, the second scenario occurs, Carlton will likely be somewhere between 12th and 16th again.

You are an extremely negative supporter.

 

[btdg]

You should not be allowed to post on Bigfooty especially as a Carlton suppporter. This actually makes sense.

If the Blues have only 4 wins on the board by round 15, I'll bet you lose your last 7.

You have to have a sense of perspective, imo. But there's no reason why Carlton fans shouldn't be excited. As the first half of my post above shows, it is possible to mount a rational argument as to how and why Carlton are a top-4 chance next year (note: chance, as opposed to likely contender). Its probably 5 years since Carlton fans could say that. Its still unlikely, but if half those things go right, we're a finals threat. If 3/4 go right, we probably slip into the 8; and thats before the Judd factor is fully explored - we don't know just how good he will be for Carlton yet. And worst case scenario has us showing genuine improvement and being even more optimistic this time next year (which may cause Bigfooty to explode).


As for your prediction regarding our last 7 matches - I'll take money on Carlton losing 5 of 7 regardless of ladder position or number of wins at that point. Young team, lacking depth, possibly out of finals contention? You wouldn't expect too many wins. In 2007, we had a shocker of a draw mid-season that gutted the players confidence (thrashing to Hawthorn, followed by 3 weeks out of 4 on the road including 3 more thrashings). 11 straight losses was the result. Don't expect much different in 08, and it has nothing to do with tanking or draft picks or anything else.

 

[Marc Shmurf 3]

How am I being cocky?
I am talking about Carlton, not Richmond.

Dumb shit

Im suggesting that Tiges supporters should be the last mob to suggest that Carlton will finish in the bottom 4.

Dumb shit

 

[La Vache]

Carlton have a shocking defense and nobody in the midfield capable of neutralising an opposition player who needs minding or who has caught fire.

Judd and Stevens will make them more competitive against other also-rans and that might be worth another 4 wins but they will still suffer their share of thrashings because when things go against them they still have no way to stop the bleeding.

I predict 14th with 6 wins.

 

[Amers]

16th-10th

No doubt will win the pre season cup though

Hav'nt you heard, we have a new coach now!

Out in the 1st round of the PSC and final 8 in season proper!

 

[Heisenberg_]

Im suggesting that Tiges supporters should be the last mob to suggest that Carlton will finish in the bottom 4.

Dumb shit

Thats not cocky though.

Likewise that you guys are the last ones to hang it on anybody.
When was the last time you finished out of the bottom 4?

 

[La Vache]

Im suggesting that Tiges supporters should be the last mob to suggest that Carlton will finish in the bottom 4.

Dumb shit

So if your team finishes bottom it prevents you from commenting on others?

That's just plain wrong.

 

[Kruze]

16th-10th

No doubt will win the pre season cup though

Hopefully we wont play any of our star players and be knocked our in the 1st round. Whatever, you can add that to the losing streak

We will be far better off to concentrate on round 1 and hopefully will result in not running out of steam towards the end of the season proper, for the first time in a few years.

 

[Amers]

Ah hum!!!!

Rattens'record: 0-6???????????????

So you don't think we were tanking? I wish we had'nt but unfortunately....

 

[Heisenberg_]

So if your team finishes bottom it prevents you from commenting on others?

That's just plain wrong.

That guy is "special"
For his sake I hope he is at least, otherwise just a dead set dumbarse

 

[btdg]

Carlton have a shocking defense and nobody in the midfield capable of neutralising an opposition player who needs minding or who has caught fire.

Judd and Stevens will make them more competitive against other also-rans and that might be worth another 4 wins but they will still suffer their share of thrashings because when things go against them they still have no way to stop the bleeding.

I predict 13th with 6 wins.

Carlton have a defence lacking in big names at the moment. But so much of the backline effectiveness comes from the midfield. If you have a good ruckman capable of filling gaps, and enough quality midfielders that they can run back into defence all day without getting tired, it makes a massive difference.

Carlton still don't have a ruckman capable of plugging the gaps unless either Hampson or Kreuzer proves to be substantially ahead of where everyone thinks they would be. But the addition of Judd and Stevens should allow the midfield to get back and help out more. Plus, the defence itself is stabilising and improving. O'Hailpin is devleoping pretty quick, and Jamison showed a lot at the end of this year. Thornton is pretty solid, and Bower may emerge. Plus you've got Waite who can pinch-hit, and plenty of defensive running types. Carlton's defence will be much improved next year, if only through an extra pre-season for Jamison and Bower and a few extra mids dropping back and helping out.

 

[SolidTiger]

I think Carlton will win 6-7 games next year. So I will guess they will finish 12th-14th.

 

[sexyhunk]

geez this sounds similar to geelong in 06?

well not really, we made finals in 04 and 05, got ahead of ourselfs in 06....now carlton on the other hand, at least make a few finals before getting ahead yourselfs...

 

[JeffDunne]

 

[RandB]

Can't see them going any better than 12th if they try and obviously 16th if they pull the plug half way through again. If they try they could be ok to watch but the absolute floggings they got last year will happen again and Juddy will finally get his wake up call.

EDIT: I should acknowledge the draw Carlton have in '08 is pretty good so that could be the difference between a few rungs on the ladder as well.

 

[Kruze]

have a look at the scum bag supporters come out of the woodwork
season 08 hasn`t started yet , but it looks like carlton have one the flag
thanks to all the carlton supporters u saved me some membership money. what about 09 ?

Will finish higher than the the filth in '08 you'll see.

Pies 07 = easest draw - finished 6th -had a good finals run - are already ahead of themselves - which will mean 11-12th finish in 08 for the filth.

 

[retroparty]

I think Carlton will win 6-7 games next year. So I will guess they will finish 12th-14th.

That would be a good prediction. Carlton should be happy if they finish outside the bottom 4. I think carlton fans are forgetting that every player out their list (excluding the new arrivals) has forgotten how to win a game of footy. Ratten will have to put lots of faith into the young ones. I think finishing 11th or 12th will be a good start to a list which could win a premiership in the next 4-5 years...

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

10th tops. Defence is the worst in the league. Judd/Stevens helps alot but it doesn't cover the holes in the carlton list. After rnd 1 2007 people were saying the blues were back and finals were a massive chance with gibbs/murphy/walker, they fell in a whole. After NAB cup win after NAB cup win same threads and ideas that finals were around the corner. The list is getting better but still has massive massive problems, namely the ruck (Kruzeur wont help much in his first season, have a similar impact to leunberger this yr) talls backs and medium backs and speed through the midfield not to mention an over reliance on fevola.

 

[Kruze]

That would be a good prediction. Carlton should be happy if they finish outside the bottom 4. I think carlton fans are forgetting that every player out their list (excluding the new arrivals) has forgotten how to win a game of footy. Ratten will have to put lots of faith into the young ones. I think finishing 11th or 12th will be a good start to a list which could win a premiership in the next 4-5 years...

Pfft, the baby Blues will play finals in 08 - be premiers in 09! You'll see.

 

[bakerman]

If they picked up Cousins they could go quite high.

 

[whytee]

TANK!

til we get it right