Prediction How many games will the AFC win in 2025?

[GROTTO]

Given its preseason, I thought as an exercise I would go ahead and try and predict which games in the H&A season we may win.

Interestingly I arrived at 13W for 2025 which included 4 losses at AO, the line given by the bookies is 12.5W. While 13W was enough to make the 8 in 2024, it should be noted that the Pies ended up with same premiership counts as 8th place, ie 12W and 2D but missed out on percentage.

Under Nicks in 2024 we lost 7 "home" games, 4 in 2023, 7 in 2022 and 2021 and 8 in 2020.

AFC 2025 Fixture

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	L
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	13

 

[Amacca 23]

I think 13 also enough to finish 4-8th

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[cleanhands]

16 wins or shut the club down

 

[Cap]

12-14

Or as above, its time to consider things

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Lucky 13

It's go time

 

[SugarShane]

With this year still fresh in my mind I pessimistically have us going 2-7 before finishing 10-13.

Most of the first 7 that I have as losses are definitely winnable but just the kind of games we drop, so if we somehow jag 3 or 4 of those you're looking at 13-14 wins. Realistically I think 11-12 wins.

 

[1990crow]

With this year still fresh in my mind I pessimistically have us going 2-7 before finishing 10-13.

Most of the first 7 that I have as losses are definitely winnable but just the kind of games we drop, so if we somehow jag 3 or 4 of those you're looking at 13-14 wins. Realistically I think 11-12 wins.

Im choosing to be optimistic with our recruits. If we fail its because our youth hasnt developed like it needs to, which would be catastrophic for the entire rebuild - think Thilthorpe, Rachele, Soligo, Michalanney, Worrell, Murray, Keane, Curtin, Rankine - these players should all start to produce now.

 

[GreyCrow]

14

Our start will have us April Premiers - I see us beating the Suns up there

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Given its preseason, I thought as an exercise I would go ahead and try and predict which games in the H&A season we may win.

Interestingly I arrived at 13W for 2025 which included 4 losses at AO, the line given by the bookies is 12.5W. While 13W was enough to make the 8 in 2024, it should be noted that the Pies ended up with same premiership counts as 8th place, ie 12W and 2D but missed out on percentage.

Under Nicks in 2024 we lost 7 "home" games, 4 in 2023, 7 in 2022 and 2021 and 8 in 2020.

AFC 2025 Fixture

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	L
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	13

Thats pretty reasonable. We have a good draw. How do we get Mars stadium. I agree with that. I just see a nicks factor may reduce it sadly.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

14-9 record... so long as ROB not missing for significant number of games.

If we don't get off to a strong start, my prediction will be miles off!

 

[cleanhands]

14-9 record... so long as ROB not missing for significant number of games.

If we don't get off to a strong start, my prediction will be miles off!

I’ll stick with my 16 or everyone out

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I’ll stick with my 16 or everyone out

If we don't win a final, Nicks can go.

But we need a decent board turnover too... more than just 1 change, regardless as a refresh.

 

[cleanhands]

If we don't win a final, Nicks can go.

But we need a decent board turnover too... more than just 1 change, regardless as a refresh.

No more oopsies, there’s no excuses this season

 

[Golumless]

26

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

26

So you are a glass half empty kind of guy lol.

Anything in the 20's would be phenomenal.

 

[Ham]

Surely we win a Collingwood game next year

 

[cleanhands]

Surely we win a Collingwood game next year

Both

 

[GROTTO]

14-9 record... so long as ROB not missing for significant number of games.

If we don't get off to a strong start, my prediction will be miles off!

Injuries, suspensions and playing teams at the right time, will go a long way to determining our Final 8 chances.

Any game or games in particular you think Ive got it wrong in terms of "pencil" in a win or loss?

 

[relapse]

Much like last year I think we'll know early if we are going to be any good or not.

Last year I flagged Round 1 vs GC as the litmus test that would tell us instantly how our season was.

Next season I think both Round 2 vs Essendon and Round 4 vs Gold Coast will tell us where we're at.

Honestly our first 6 games are all winnable if we're good enough so I tend to think that if we go into the Freo game with anything less than 4-2 record, then we'll most probably be missing the finals.

I put us down for 12 wins, despite having an easier draw this year I suspect that we'll lose some 50/50 games that we should have won and will miss the 8.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Injuries, suspensions and playing teams at the right time, will go a long way to determining our Final 8 chances.

Any game or games in particular you think Ive got it wrong in terms of "pencil" in a win or loss?

Had the same as you, but winning against Hawks at home.

 

[Scorpus]

12 games. We lose to North Melbourne in the final round which costs us finals. Nicks sacked

Then we win 19 home and away games in 2026 with a new coach

 

[cleanhands]

12 games. We lose to North Melbourne in the final round which costs us finals. Nicks sacked

Then we win 19 home and away games in 2026 with a new coach

I hope he’s sacked if we are trending toward 12 wins

 

[crows dude]

14 Wins

Good draw helps us get off strong winning our first six games. Then we win 3 of the next six to go 9 and 3 heading into Round 13. Thyen we have a tough run and lose six in a row. bringing the tally to 9 wins and 8 losses. Then head back to Adelaide oval for 3 weeks plus a trip to perth for four wins on the trot. Before losing to Collingwood at home in round 23. A nice flogging of North Melbourne at Marvel in the final round to give us 14 wins and 5th spot and a home final.

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	W
5	10/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	W
6	19/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	L
17	4/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	L
18	11/07/25	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	W
22	8/08/25	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W

 

[Tex Danger]

14 Wins

Good draw helps us get off strong winning our first six games. Then we win 3 of the next six to go 9 and 3 heading into Round 13. Thyen we have a tough run and lose six in a row. bringing the tally to 9 wins and 8 losses. Then head back to Adelaide oval for 3 weeks plus a trip to perth for four wins on the trot. Before losing to Collingwood at home in round 23. A nice flogging of North Melbourne at Marvel in the final round to give us 14 wins and 5th spot and a home final.

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	W
5	10/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	W
6	19/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	L
17	4/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	L
18	11/07/25	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	W
22	8/08/25	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W

Thats some roller coaster of a season

 

[El Doederino]

EVERY ****ING FAME ****ING