Analysis Inexperience watch

[WhiteLionFeva]

What I find particularly scary out of the Geelong game is that we really don't have many experienced players that weren't in the side on Sunday. Although, you can make the case that our best three players weren't playing, which would hurt any side:

• Dayne Beams on 126 games experience
• Rich on 124
• Rocky on 119

But beyond that, the next most experienced players on our list not in the side were:

• West, 66 games - and will only play if Martin gets injured due to team balance
• Clarke on 56 games - who has retired obviously
• and Paparone on 46 games (who would help, but is hardly considered experienced)

So if we included Dayne Beams, Rich, Rocky and Paparone in our side for arguments sake at the expense of our four least experienced players on Sunday (Schache 3 games, Evans 6 games, Cutler 21 games and Andrews 22 games) we would only get to a maximum average per player in our team of 80.5 games.

Obviously those changes are not going to happen. A more realistic best case scenario would be Evans 6 games, Gardiner 27 games, and a couple of others from Harwood 62 games, Mayes 56 games, Lester 64 games or Claye Beams 39 games making way. Lets assume it is Mayes and Lester in addition to Evans and Gardiner, then that would give a top 22 average of just 73.9 games per player.

So a best case scenario at some stage of probably getting to around 74 games per player shows how bleak our experience outlook is. Especially when you compare us to the averages of our opponents in the first three rounds (WC 105.4, North 152, and Cats 106).

Round 4 should be temporarily better, but it is going to be a long year by the looks of things.

the other concerning thing there is that the guys coming into the more experienced category and you would be expecting to give impetus to our rise up the ladder in the next couple of years aren't even locks for the side - i.e. Harwood, Mayes, Lester, West, Bewick, C Beams and Paparone.

 

[Kevvo]

What I find particularly scary out of the Geelong game is that we really don't have many experienced players that weren't in the side on Sunday. Although, you can make the case that our best three players weren't playing, which would hurt any side:

• Dayne Beams on 126 games experience
• Rich on 124
• Rocky on 119

But beyond that, the next most experienced players on our list not in the side were:

• West, 66 games - and will only play if Martin gets injured due to team balance
• Clarke on 56 games - who has retired obviously
• and Paparone on 46 games (who would help, but is hardly considered experienced)

So if we included Dayne Beams, Rich, Rocky and Paparone in our side for arguments sake at the expense of our four least experienced players on Sunday (Schache 3 games, Evans 6 games, Cutler 21 games and Andrews 22 games) we would only get to a maximum average per player in our team of 80.5 games.

Obviously those changes are not going to happen. A more realistic best case scenario would be Evans 6 games, Gardiner 27 games, and a couple of others from Harwood 62 games, Mayes 56 games, Lester 64 games or Claye Beams 39 games making way. Lets assume it is Mayes and Lester in addition to Evans and Gardiner, then that would give a top 22 average of just 73.9 games per player.

So a best case scenario at some stage of probably getting to around 74 games per player shows how bleak our experience outlook is. Especially when you compare us to the averages of our opponents in the first three rounds (WC 105.4, North 152, and Cats 106).

Round 4 should be temporarily better, but it is going to be a long year by the looks of things.

I guess the silver-ish lining is that the likely tough year will hopefully reflect our demographic as much as the quality of player on the list. One gets better over time, the other doesn't necessarily. If we keep a relatively stable 22, we could hopefully be up around the 90ish ballpark next year. We don't have many (more) retirements looming, and our draft intake seems likely to replace players who aren't getting too many games anyway.

 

[winged1]

the other concerning thing there is that the guys coming into the more experienced category and you would be expecting to give impetus to our rise up the ladder in the next couple of years aren't even locks for the side - i.e. Harwood, Mayes, Lester, West, Bewick, C Beams and Paparone.

I think Paps is solidly best 22, but the rest are marginal. This whole layer of players hasnt come on.

 

[Fatcat08]

I think Paps is solidly best 22, but the rest are marginal. This whole layer of players hasnt come on.

not that unusual really when you think about it given almost all of them were lower picks, bar Mayes. The issue is that the guys picked above them are gone which is where the real issue lies.

 

[Kevvo]

not that unusual really when you think about it given almost all of them were lower picks, bar Mayes. The issue is that the guys picked above them are gone which is where the real issue lies.

That's definitely right. Replace our two halfbacks with Docherty and Yeo and you'd expect our ball movement to look a bit better. Right now we're trying to make the most out of what we've got.

 

[Ironmonger]

the other concerning thing there is that the guys coming into the more experienced category and you would be expecting to give impetus to our rise up the ladder in the next couple of years aren't even locks for the side - i.e. Harwood, Mayes, Lester, West, Bewick, C Beams and Paparone.

One disappointing thing about our run of injuries in the last few years is the players who have had more opportunities as a result haven't really taken advantage.

Looking down the highway at the Suns, and you'd say that Hall, Miller, Saad, Lonergan and maybe Sexton got games last year they might not have gotten with a fit list, and are better players this year as a result.

It's harder to identify equivalent players for us. Maybe Taylor and Andrews. Stefan Martin is a big one from 2014.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 4, 2016 - Lions vs. the Suns at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 1 vs. Suns 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 3 vs. Suns 6
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Suns 6
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 9 vs. Suns 5
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Suns 3
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Suns 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 70.5 vs. Suns 76.9 (= -6.4 games on average)
• Average age - Lions 24.3 vs. Suns 24.4
• Average height - Lions 186.5cm vs. Suns 187.3cm
• Average weight - Lions 88.3kg vs. Suns 86kg

Average experience of the teams this week is pretty much even. We are only just over 6 games behind the Suns on average, however that is entirely caused by their most experienced 5 players being around a bit longer than our 5 most experienced players. We actually have significantly fewer inexperienced players; the Lions have 8 with less than 50 games experience to the Suns 12.

This is absolutely a winnable game despite our poor form compared to theirs. At home, with the experience side of things close to being even, there is no reason why we shouldn't be super competitive. No more excuses this week, we can win this.

 

[Jivlain]

Here's Champion data's graph for this week:

A fair bit happier than last week's.

 

[Last of the Roys]

With the late change of McStay out and Dawson in, this is what the numbers ended up looking like going into the game: (changes in red)

Round 4, 2016 - Lions vs. the Suns at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Suns 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 4 vs. Suns 6
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Suns 6
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 9 vs. Suns 5
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Suns 3
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Suns 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 69.5 vs. Suns 76.9 (= -7.4 games on average)
• Average age - Lions 24.3 vs. Suns 24.4
• Average height - Lions 186.2cm vs. Suns 187.3cm
• Average weight - Lions 87.9kg vs. Suns 86kg

Average experience of the teams this week is pretty much even. We are only just over 7 games behind the Suns on average, however that is entirely caused by their most experienced 5 players being around a bit longer than our 5 most experienced players. We actually have significantly fewer inexperienced players; the Lions have 8 with less than 50 games experience to the Suns 12.

This is absolutely a winnable game despite our poor form compared to theirs. At home, with the experience side of things close to being even, there is no reason why we shouldn't be super competitive. No more excuses this week, we can win this.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 5, 2016 - Lions vs. the Dogs at Etihad

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 1 vs. Dogs 3)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 4 vs. Dogs 4
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Dogs 4
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 8 vs. Dogs 9
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Dogs 2
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Dogs 3

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 73.3 vs. Dogs 81.4 (= -8.1 games on average)
• Average age - Lions 24.5 vs. Dogs 25.1
• Average height - Lions 186.1cm vs. Dogs 187.4cm
• Average weight - Lions 88.1kg vs. Dogs 85.5kg

So fairly similar to last week. The Bulldogs have a slightly more experienced side overall, but that is due to the three players they have that have played more than 200 games (unfortunately including one of our own in Adcock). Besides that, the sides on paper look pretty similar in terms of experience. Both teams will have 8 players playing with less than 50 games experience. One other slight difference is that the Dogs have 3 players in the 0-10 range to our 1 (with Dawson just moving to 11 games).

The Bulldogs have obviously been in very good form again this year and at home they will be very hard to beat, despite their recent injuries. Still, if we turn up with the right attitude and get a few things going our way early, there is no significant reason why we can't be super competitive in this game and even potentially get another win.

In reality though, I do fear our extreme press defence may get caught out and we may get scored on heavily like the Eagles game given how quick the Dogs can pile on the goals, but hopefully our players / coaching staff prove me wrong.

 

[Jivlain]

Back to a fairly distorted distribution this week. We do have a few more "prime years" players, but there's a lot of quality in the Swans 150+ game category.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 6, 2016 - Lions vs. the Swans at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 1 vs. Swans 5)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 3 vs. Swans 6
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Swans 3
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 8 vs. Swans 3
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Swans 8
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Swans 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 73.7 vs. Swans 96.7(= -23 games on average)
• Average age - Lions 24.4 vs. Swans 25.2
• Average height - Lions 186.6cm vs. Swans 185.9cm
• Average weight - Lions 87.5kg vs. Swans 85.5kg

Last week was pretty bloody disappointing in that we showed no real competitiveness beyond halfway through the first quarter despite being not that far behind the Bulldogs in terms of experience. So I don't think there are many Lions fans going into this game against the Swans filled with confidence, especially when Sydney typically slaughter us in any case.

This round we face a more experienced side overall. As mentioned above the Swans have a lot of very experienced players - they have 10 with more than 100 games experience to our 6 (with many of their players over the 150 mark). However, what is surprising is that they have 5 players in the side with less than 10 games experience to our 1. Normally that would be asking for trouble, but the Swans experienced players have obviously more than covered for this so far this season.

It does leave the door a little ajar for us to pull off a huge upset, but gee it is hard to get my hopes up after last week debacle. (What was most disappointing is that it highlighted how far we still have to improve to match the best young teams).

By the way obviously Martin is playing his 100th game and Taylor his 50th. They, along with Harris Andrews who is playing his 25th, will go up a category next week (which is always pleasing to see).

 

[Last of the Roys]

Gee every round seems to have late changes this year. This time it is a good one for us with Nick Smith (147 games) out for the Swans and Zak Jones (18 games) in. Changes below in red.

Round 6, 2016 - Lions vs. the Swans at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 1 vs. Swans 5)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 3 vs. Swans 7
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Swans 3
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 8 vs. Swans 3
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Swans 7
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Swans 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 73.7 vs. Swans 90.8(= -17.1 games on average)
• Average age - Lions 24.4 vs. Swans 24.9
• Average height - Lions 186.6cm vs. Swans 185.8cm
• Average weight - Lions 87.5kg vs. Swans 85.5kg

Last week was pretty bloody disappointing in that we showed no real competitiveness beyond halfway through the first quarter despite being not that far behind the Bulldogs in terms of experience. So I don't think there are many Lions fans going into this game against the Swans filled with confidence, especially when Sydney typically slaughter us in any case.

This round we face a more experienced side overall. As mentioned above the Swans have a lot of very experienced players - they have 9 with more than 100 games experience to our 6 (with many of their players over the 150 mark). However, what is surprising is that they have 5 players in the side with less than 10 games experience to our 1. Normally that would be asking for trouble, but the Swans experienced players have obviously more than covered for this so far this season.

It does leave the door a little ajar for us to pull off a huge upset, but gee it is hard to get my hopes up after last week debacle. (What was most disappointing is that it highlighted how far we still have to improve to match the best young teams).

By the way obviously Martin is playing his 100th game and Taylor his 50th. They, along with Harris Andrews who is playing his 25th, will go up a category next week (which is always pleasing to see).

 

[Milux]

Gee every round seems to have late changes this year. This time it is a good one for us with Nick Smith (147 games) out for the Swans and Zak Jones (18 games) in. Changes below in red.

Just keeping you on your toes L.O.T.R

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 7, 2016 - Lions vs. Port at Adelaide Oval

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Port 1)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 2 vs. Port 2
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Port 4
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Port 10
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 8 vs. Port 6
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Port 0

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 77.8 vs. Port 82.9 (= -5.1 games on average)
• Average age - Lions 24.6 vs. Port 24.6
• Average height - Lions 187.3cm vs. Port 187.3cm
• Average weight - Lions 88.6kg vs. Port 85.5kg

A pretty even game this week experience wise. Port just shade us in average games played, but we have 2 more players in our side that have played more than 100 games. If the game was at the Gabba I would give us a real chance of winning. However, it is really hard to predict whether we will show up with the right attitude when we are away from home. It all depends if we can get a bit of luck early in the game. Still, it will be bloody disappointing if we aren't competitive tomorrow.

 

[Jivlain]

 

[Full Wingspan]

Another sensational post, I feel this type of statistical breakdown is very thorough and a great indicator as to who the winner will be.

I agree that our effort and attitude on the road has been, to be quite frank, piss poor. It is actually concerning that the difference in intensity is so dramatic from our performances at home.

I see this game as a real chance for us - coupled with a statistical breakeven and the intangible fact that Port take in terrible from into this match leaves me very confident.

 

[T Rick]

Another sensational post, I feel this type of statistical breakdown is very thorough and a great indicator as to who the winner will be.

I agree that our effort and attitude on the road has been, to be quite frank, piss poor. It is actually concerning that the difference in intensity is so dramatic from our performances at home.

I see this game as a real chance for us - coupled with a statistical breakeven and the intangible fact that Port take in terrible from into this match leaves me very confident.

I actually thought our performance on the road against WCE in Round 1 was very good. Most teams have struggled badly against Geelong at SS and whilst we were definitely poor against the Dogs at Etihad - they are hard to beat there.

 

[Happy_Neale]

I actually thought our performance on the road against WCE in Round 1 was very good. Most teams have struggled badly against Geelong at SS and whilst we were definitely poor against the Dogs at Etihad - they are hard to beat there.

I must be in a minority in that I was not all that impressed with round one. Eagles were clearly going at around 60% of their best. Really should have been a closer game IMO.

 

[Milux]

I must be in a minority in that I was not all that impressed with round one. Eagles were clearly going at around 60% of their best. Really should have been a closer game IMO.

If we had of stopped turning it over it would have been a lot closer. A ten goal loss is still a ten goal loss. But when we turn it over for ten goals that hurts.

 

[Happy_Neale]

If we had of stopped turning it over it would have been a lot closer. A ten goal loss is still a ten goal loss. But when we turn it over for ten goals that hurts.

Yeah that's close to the point I was making, although the effort was there we were abysmal with ball in hand. Don't think the Eagles had to work for many of their goals at all.

 

[Milux]

Yeah that's close to the point I was making, although the effort was there we were abysmal with ball in hand. Don't think the Eagles had to work for many of their goals at all.

Due to being round 1 and lack of pre season games I was stoked for the effort. Polish was always going to be lacked.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Another round, another late change - Merrett out and Paparone in (see the impacts in red below)

Round 7, 2016 - Lions vs. Port at Adelaide Oval

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Port 1)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 2 vs. Port 2
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 6 vs. Port 4
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Port 10
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 7 vs. Port 6
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Port 0

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 71.4 vs. Port 82.9 (= -11.5 games on average)
• Average age - Lions 24.1 vs. Port 24.6
• Average height - Lions 187.3cm vs. Port 187.3cm
• Average weight - Lions 87.9kg vs. Port 85.5kg

A pretty even game this week experience wise. Port just shade us in average games played, but we have 1 more player in our side that have played more than 100 games. If the game was at the Gabba I would give us a real chance of winning. However, it is really hard to predict whether we will show up with the right attitude when we are away from home. It all depends if we can get a bit of luck early in the game. Still, it will be bloody disappointing if we aren't competitive tomorrow.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 8, 2016 - Lions vs. Pies at the Gabba

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Pies 3)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 2 vs. Pies 6
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Pies 4
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 8 vs. Pies 5
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 7 vs. Pies 6
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Pies 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 76.5 vs. Pies 74.0 (= +2.5 games on average)
• Average age - Lions 24.5 vs. Pies 24.3
• Average height - Lions 186.5cm vs. Pies 188.0cm
• Average weight - Lions 87.9kg vs. Pies 87.3kg

Well last week started so well but turned absolutely putrid way too easily. If it wasn't for that, I would be really positive going into tonight's game given the above experience numbers may be the best we see all year. For the first time this year we are slightly more experienced in terms of average games played and average age than our opposition. Even more importantly though, we only have 2 very inexperienced players who have played less than 25 games to Collingwood's 6. That should give us a big advantage.

At home with a clear experience advantage there will be nowhere to hide tonight if we aren't super competitive. Unfortunately last week's debacle sapped me of confidence and I couldn't bring myself to pick the Lions. Hopefully we see the side turn up that played so well against Sydney and Gold Coast.

 

[Milux]

Loving your work LOTR. but i think you forgot one player in the pies list. Only adds up to 21.