Analysis Inexperience watch

[Surly Boy]

Great thread, always interesting (not always enjoyable given the numbers!) to read.

Thanks for all of your efforts LOTR!

 

[PTizzle]

Fantastic stuff all year LOTR - this last round was just icing on the cake.

 

[T Factor]

Great stuff LOTR this has one of my favorite threads this year. Interesting that we were younger and more experienced, it looks good for us over the next few years if we can keep the group together

 

[matwt73]

Great thread, always amazed at the correlation between results and experience that this thread points out.

 

[Dizzle]

I think this goes here...

Thanks to the Lions website article showing us as the youngest in the AFL, and an afternoon trapped in an office without wanting to work, I came up with the following stats.

In short while our depth is as good as it has been for some time, it is extremely inexperienced depth.

Most experienced 22

Our Senior 22 in terms of games played (not based upon skill or positioning) has 1,809 games total at an average of 82 per player and runs from Sauce Merrett (181) down to Josh Walker (33). Lewy Taylor gets in after only 2 seasons work!

This unit has kicked 1,061 goals at 48 average per player and is on average heading into their 6th season. The players that might not make a full strength round 1 include West, Lester, Harwood, Bewick and C Beams.

8 of these 22 commenced their careers with another club (I didn't include Bewick or Zorko in that lot).

Most experienced 10 vs the AFL

As an exercise in curiosity I went through the top 10 players in terms of games played at every club. The Dockers, Cats, Hawks, Roos and Swans Top 10s have more experience than our most experienced 22 in terms of games played! The Roos (most with 2,359), Hawks and Swans all have in excess of 2,000. The Saints (1,778) and Bombers (1,723) seem to have a disparity in games experience and recent ladder position, and the Blues, Dees and Suns have culled and retooled and have between 1,410 and 1,463 from their senior core.

We have 1,157, a full 253 or 11.5 seasons experience the lesser than our nearest least experienced rivals the Suns. (Incredibly our top 10 have 54 less seasons experience than the Roos. Let that marinate...)

Shocking huh? Well that's not the shocking bit.

Depth players

Take out our most experienced 22 and we're left with 25 players (including the rookie list). This group combined has played 172 games and kicked 76 goals, averages of less than 7 and about 3 respectively in their careers thus far. That's shallow depth.

They include 13 players yet to play a game of course including this year's draftees, some of whom will no doubt be in the 22 at some point this season. But it's a scary drop off from an already incredibly young senior core.

Retired / Delisted

To give some perspective the 10 players from last year no longer on the list played 992 games (99 ave) and kicked 341 goals (34 ave) over an average of 8 seasons each, with those figures heavily reduced thanks to Aish, O'Brien and Bourke.

Durability

Finally, I took a look at the average games played per season from the senior 22 over their careers. Assuming in the early years they might be on the periphery of the team of even in the ressies full time, I thought 16 per season seems a pass mark. Only a dozen made it, among them Bewick (surprising), Zorko and Clarke.

Of the guys with 4 or more seasons experience, a remarkable 9 players average under 15 games per season. Poor old Claye Beams averages 7!

Perhaps unsurprisingly given our injury history our 'imports' are among the more durable, with D Beams, Robbo, Bastinac and Bundy all averaging 17 games or more for their careers this far.

In summary I agree that our squad looks better than ever (OK in recent 'ever') but we're still paper thin, and unless some of these young blokes step in like Lewy or Zorks we will remain more susceptible to injuries than most teams.

That said, Go Lions.

 

[BuntonRules]

Deserves more than a like - awesome work Dizzle. May need to pull this out later in the season, when some look to cast blame as to why we are not finals bound.

 

[BRAB]

At least Harris Andrews plays like an 80 gamer.

 

[M Malice]

the least experienced game wise and the youngest side in the competition but we do have a really good core of experienced players now ie daniel merrett, stefan martin, tom rockliff, dayne beams, pearce hanley, daniel rich, ryan bastinac, mitch robinson, allen christensen and while not games wise experience josh walker has been at a successful club and brings that to a position on the field we are really lacking in experience. if the bulk of theses players can stay on the field for the majority of the season i think we will defy the pure facts and figures of the game and youth stats, and will surprise a lot of pundits how well we go.
the really pleasing thing with this is that daniel merrett would be the only one of the ones i have listed that would be retiring in the next 1 to 3 years all the rest except stefan martin will more than likely play for at least 5 more years. if we are not contending for a regular top 4 berth, meaning flag contention in 3 years i have seriously over rated our current playing roster.

edit. when i say defy the pure facts and figures and surprise a lot of pundits. i mean around 7 to 9 wins, no way finals 2016. has the youngest or least experienced side in the comp. ever made finals?

 

[luthor]

If there's one thing that this thread has consistently demonstrated, it's that experience counts.

Superiority in the expereience stakes = Higher statistical probability of winning in any given game.

Those predicting a Lazarus-like resurrection from the Lions this coming season need to take a reality check.

I'm actually pretty bullish about 2016 but not to the extent that I want to kid myself that we are going to somehow go marching into the finals.

Patience is required.....there's a good "look" about our list but it's going to take time and games(probably 2-3 season's worth) before we can relistically expect the club to challenge deep into the finals.

 

[AFLQLD]

This is a great thread that I think helps keep thinking fans' feet on the ground.

We are capable of improvement in 2016 but it will be improvement from a very low base. The journey back to the top may not be as quick as we would all like but it will be satisfying all the same.

The club has a clear sense of direction now. And everyone seems to be working in that direction. If we stay the course, experience will come, wins will come, finals will come and flags will come.

 

[luthor]

.
If we stay the course, experience will come, wins will come, finals will come and flags will come.

Plural would be awesome.

Just one more before I depart this mortal coil would do me though

 

[Ray Button]

We currently have only four players (Hanley, West, Martin & Merrett) who are aged 27+. This must be the lowest for any team in the senior age bracket.

On the bright side, our age demographic is now looking more promising than two or three years ago - we have a healthy little hump in the mid-twenties range rather than the U-shaped graph previously.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Bump!
Are you going to keep going with this thread this year Last of the Roys ?

A quick look shows the average is 57.1 games played for us and 111.1 for them. Hope I haven't stole your thunder LOTR, was curious myself and wanted to check it out.

 

[Gibbo_88]

FYI - If we had Beams, Zorko and Merrett playing this weekend our average would only go up to around 70 games.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Bump!
Are you going to keep going with this thread this year Last of the Roys ?

A quick look shows the average is 57.1 games played for us and 111.1 for them. Hope I haven't stole your thunder LOTR, was curious myself and wanted to check it out.

Yeah I am planning to keep it up.

I have had a look at our team vs. West Coast this week and I will post it below. Interestingly I get an average games played of 67 for us vs. 105.4 for them - I don't know what the difference in our results is caused by, although they are not far off (did you include emergencies? Or did you miss out on Merrett - he is playing isn't he?).

When I get the time I will try to compare our list this year to all the other teams. I think we are the youngest / least experienced list, although the only question mark might be Essendon after the WADA bans.

[EDIT - I finally saw the news Merrett is most likely out of the side, I will rejig my averages when it gets confirmed he is out and who is replacing him]

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 1, 2016 - Lions vs. Eagles at Subiaco

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Eagles 0)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 4 vs. Eagles 2
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Eagles 2
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Eagles 4
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Eagles 14
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Eagles 0

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 67 vs. Eagles 105.4 (= -38.4)
• Average age - Lions 24.0 vs. Eagles 25.8
• Average height - Lions 188.5cm vs. Eagles 188.7cm
• Average weight - Lions 89.5kg vs. Eagles 89.2kg

So it doesn't look pretty to begin the season, although it is a task we are going to face quite a number of times this year. Unfortunately our list looks to have finally reached the bottom experience wise.

The only way is up from here, but it will still take time. Playing round 1 away against the Eagles is already the toughest trip in the AFL. With our disjointed lead in and key outs in Beams, Zorko, Green and even Clarke (who I know may never play again) makes a very difficult task almost impossible. The Eagles team smashes ours experience wise, averaging almost 40 games experience more per player. The key is the massive 14 players the Eagles will have out there who have played more than 100 games, compared to just 6 such players in our team. Down the other end of the scale we will have 9 players with less than 50 games experience to their 4.

We need an Easter miracle to win this one. I am just hoping we can be competitive for 2-3 quarters, get some match fitness and not get any more injuries.

[EDIT - I finally saw the news Merrett is most likely out of the side, I will rejig my stats when it gets confirmed he is out and who is replacing him]

 

[James North]

 

[POBT]

I know this is silver lining stuff but I feel we are slowly reducing that group who have played less than 25 games. The two really inexperienced players this week are Schache (0 games) and Freeman (10) and we've known for a while that we'll be playing inexperienced tall forwards. Andrews and Cutler are both approaching 20 games so will hopefully clear that 25 game hurdle before the half way point of the year.

We've also got a few guys in the best 22 who are about to pass the 50 game mark.

Not suggesting that clearing those milestones make them instantly a better player. More pointing out that the numbers chosen are arbitrary (as they have to be) and that the inexperience of the side is slightly better than the stats suggest.

I personally believe that once a player has passed around 60 games then they largely contribute what a senior player gives. 60 games means a minimum of three preseasons and virtually three full seasons of games. The likes of Mayes, Lester, Harwood, Green are the ones we should be expecting to step up more.

 

[lions2010]

I know this is silver lining stuff but I feel we are slowly reducing that group who have played less than 25 games. The two really inexperienced players this week are Schache (0 games) and Freeman (10) and we've known for a while that we'll be playing inexperienced tall forwards. Andrews and Cutler are both approaching 20 games so will hopefully clear that 25 game hurdle before the half way point of the year.

We've also got a few guys in the best 22 who are about to pass the 50 game mark.

Not suggesting that clearing those milestones make them instantly a better player. More pointing out that the numbers chosen are arbitrary (as they have to be) and that the inexperience of the side is slightly better than the stats suggest.

I personally believe that once a player has passed around 60 games then they largely contribute what a senior player gives. 60 games means a minimum of three preseasons and virtually three full seasons of games. The likes of Mayes, Lester, Harwood, Green are the ones we should be expecting to step up more.

Thats on the basis the players make it. Lions have been investing in game time over the years into players who didnt make it. I think Harwood and Lester are in that boat.

Once they bring in Mathieson, Keays and then Allison next year, it all starts again

 

[Toffee Lion]

Almost choked when I saw 14 between 100-199.

This could very well get ugly.

 

[chopperduck]

The promising thing about being 40 games different in experience is that we are talking about 2 seasons. Assuming we have and are playing the core group for the future, 2 years time we should be in the frame, which matches up with what the club has said.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Just for the record, here are how the stats changed with Claye Beams the late change for Daniel Merrett (changes in red).

Round 1, 2016 - Lions vs. Eagles at Subiaco

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 2 vs. Eagles 0)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 4 vs. Eagles 2
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 6 vs. Eagles 2
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Eagles 4
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Eagles 14
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Eagles 0

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 60.4 vs. Eagles 105.4 (= -45)
• Average age - Lions 23.7 vs. Eagles 25.8
• Average height - Lions 187.9cm vs. Eagles 188.7cm
• Average weight - Lions 88.7kg vs. Eagles 89.2kg

So it doesn't look pretty to begin the season, although it is a task we are going to face quite a number of times this year. Unfortunately our list looks to have finally reached the bottom experience wise.

The only way is up from here, but it will still take time. Playing round 1 away against the Eagles is already the toughest trip in the AFL. With our disjointed lead in and key outs in Beams, Zorko, Green and even Clarke (who I know may never play again) makes a very difficult task almost impossible. The Eagles team smashes ours experience wise, averaging 45 games experience more per player. The key is the massive 14 players the Eagles will have out there who have played more than 100 games, compared to just 5 such players in our team. Down the other end of the scale we will have 10 players with less than 50 games experience to their 4.

We need an Easter miracle to win this one. I am just hoping we can be competitive for 2-3 quarters, get some match fitness and not get any more injuries.

 

[Last of the Roys]

Round 2, 2016 - Lions vs. North at the Gabba
(or the Young Guns vs. Dad's Army)

• (0 to 10 games - Lions 1 vs. North 0)
• 0 to 24 games - Lions 3 vs. North 2
• 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. North 2
• 50 to 99 games - Lions 9 vs. North 3
• 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. North 9
• 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. North 6

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Lions 68.4 vs. North 151 (= -82.6)!!!
• Average age - Lions 24.2 vs. North 27.7
• Average height - Lions 186.5cm vs. North 188cm
• Average weight - Lions 88.3kg vs. North 88.0kg

Wow! I think North this week might be the most experienced / oldest team I have looked at on this thread (I am just guessing though, because I can't be bothered checking). An average of over 150 games each, WTF??? I had to check that a few times to be sure. Of course they have Harvey on over 400 games, but also Dal Santo on just over 300, Petrie on close to 300 and three more (Wells, Waite and Firrito) over 200 games each.

The difference in average games played to us is enormous (one of the biggest I have seen, if not the biggest). Although in a way some of the other stats are not too different to last week. We have 8 players who have played less than 50 games to their 4. We only have 5 players with more than 100 games experience to North's 15.

So it is going to be bloody tough to win, but at home and against a team that is very old, we are not without a chance. In fact North's side definitely looks too old. They have surely gone past the ideal experience range. That doesn't make it much easier for us given we are clearly much less experienced than we need to be to be consistently competitive.

Still, there is hope. Time to see if we can turn this experience caper on its head!

 

[JasRulz63]

Pretty crazy that we only have three players on our list (two playing today) that are older than the average age of their side. Only Merrett has played more games than their line-up's games average.

 

[Full Wingspan]

Awesome stuff LOTR, I enjoy and look forward to your work every week.

Just a comment in regards to the analysis of these stats, I wonder where the experience cut off begins where performances begin to decline from their peak? Surely the Roos are located on that side of the curve.