Opinion International Geopolitics

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Senior Conservative and former Minister for Brexit Jacob Rees-Mogg loses and stands next to a man wearing a mask with baked beans on it at the poll declaration.

Sums up the state of UK politics generally.


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Monty Python did it better btw.

 

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Too many times when a party has had a massive swing against it, usually a government, but sometimes an opposition or sometimes a minor party, political commentators talk as if that party is dead or will never recover, and guess what, the big 2 ie left or right party, usually do.

Well in the English speaking world, where I tend to look at, and study.

The Tories are in big trouble in UK. Today's result wont wipe them out, but it may well be the start of a long decline. Nigel Farage's Brexit Party which has become the Reform UK party has gone from getting about 600k votes in 2019 to over 4 million in this one.

But they have got bugger all seats, and they split the right vote and with first past the post, ie no preferential voting system, the Reform UK party may well stop the Tory's getting into government for a longtime.

A competent Labour government will get (at least) 2 terms, so that's 10 years in power if they don't go early, but its post that, the potential real long term damage will be revealed for the Tories.

Current vote count for some but not all the parties. The fact Reform UK splitting the right of centre vote and not winning seats stands out like dog's balls. They are like the Greens, disproportionate % of votes compared to seats won. The Greens haven't been able to change that equation, so who knows if Reform UK will.

www.bbc.com

UK election results 2024 | Constituency map

Get the latest news and election results in the 2024 General election from BBC News
www.bbc.com

Labour​

  • Total seats 411
  • Change +210
  • Total votes 9,650,254
  • Share 33.8%
  • Share change +1.6

Conservative​

  • Total seats 119
  • Change -249
  • Total votes 6,771,974
  • Share 23.7%
  • Share change -19.9

Liberal Democrat​

  • Total seats 71
  • Change +63
  • Total votes 3,489,570
  • Share 12.2%
  • Share change +0.6

Scottish National Party​

  • Total seats 9
  • Change -38
  • Total votes 685,405
  • Share 2.4%
  • Share change -1.3

Sinn Fein​

  • Total seats 7
  • Change 0
  • Total votes 210,891
  • Share 0.7%
  • Share change +0.1

Reform UK​

  • Total seats 4
  • Change +4
  • Total votes 4,076,645
  • Share 14.3%
  • Share change +12.3

Green​

  • Total seats 4
  • Change +3
  • Total votes 1,934,554
  • Share 6.8%
  • Share change +4.1
 
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First past the post always benefited the Tories in the past, but with Reform UK now in the mix they will struggle. UK had a referendum in 2011 to move to a preferential voting system but it was overwhelmingly rejected. The Tories campaigned against it. They may well rue that decision.
 
France is going into uncharted waters with a mixed result that leaves no clear winner.

But for the moment at least the joy of Parisians at knowing the right wing racists of Le Pen didn't get what they thought was theirs was something to behold.


 
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