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Too many times when a party has had a massive swing against it, usually a government, but sometimes an opposition or sometimes a minor party, political commentators talk as if that party is dead or will never recover, and guess what, the big 2 ie left or right party, usually do.

Well in the English speaking world, where I tend to look at, and study.

The Tories are in big trouble in UK. Today's result wont wipe them out, but it may well be the start of a long decline. Nigel Farage's Brexit Party which has become the Reform UK party has gone from getting about 600k votes in 2019 to over 4 million in this one.

But they have got bugger all seats, and they split the right vote and with first past the post, ie no preferential voting system, the Reform UK party may well stop the Tory's getting into government for a longtime.

A competent Labour government will get (at least) 2 terms, so that's 10 years in power if they don't go early, but its post that, the potential real long term damage will be revealed for the Tories.

Current vote count for some but not all the parties. The fact Reform UK splitting the right of centre vote and not winning seats stands out like dog's balls. They are like the Greens, disproportionate % of votes compared to seats won. The Greens haven't been able to change that equation, so who knows if Reform UK will.


Labour​

  • Total seats 411
  • Change +210
  • Total votes 9,650,254
  • Share 33.8%
  • Share change +1.6

Conservative​

  • Total seats 119
  • Change -249
  • Total votes 6,771,974
  • Share 23.7%
  • Share change -19.9

Liberal Democrat​

  • Total seats 71
  • Change +63
  • Total votes 3,489,570
  • Share 12.2%
  • Share change +0.6

Scottish National Party​

  • Total seats 9
  • Change -38
  • Total votes 685,405
  • Share 2.4%
  • Share change -1.3

Sinn Fein​

  • Total seats 7
  • Change 0
  • Total votes 210,891
  • Share 0.7%
  • Share change +0.1

Reform UK​

  • Total seats 4
  • Change +4
  • Total votes 4,076,645
  • Share 14.3%
  • Share change +12.3

Green​

  • Total seats 4
  • Change +3
  • Total votes 1,934,554
  • Share 6.8%
  • Share change +4.1
 
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First past the post always benefited the Tories in the past, but with Reform UK now in the mix they will struggle. UK had a referendum in 2011 to move to a preferential voting system but it was overwhelmingly rejected. The Tories campaigned against it. They may well rue that decision.
 

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I don't know where I heard it yesterday, but someone said Biden v Trump would be like the last election being a battle between Howard and Keating as leaders of their parties.

Biden (1942) v Trump (1946) and Howard (1939) v Keating (1944).

Surely the US has a lot better qualified people to be running for the highest office in the land, and effective leader of the western world against authoritarian world.
 
The Lancet has estimated the death toll in Gaza at 186,000. This is a massacre.

Meanwhile Australia... Has decided yesterday to appoint an envoy on anti semitism.


Wanting Israel to stop slaughtering children in the thousands is not anti semitism you stupid campaigners.
 
George Clooney pulling out of fundraising for Biden, Nancy Pelosi refusing to answer the question of whether Biden should pull out or stay in the race, and the below CNN video with Joe Tapper ripping into Biden - pro democrat media outlet, I can see a Bill Hayden, February 1983 Drover's Dog moment repeating.

Biden is getting the sort of advice Hayden got 41 years ago.

For those who weren't around in 1983 or haven't read/studied their Australian political history, some context.

When very good mate and leader of the Labor opposition in the senate, John Button went and counselled Bill to hand over the reigns to Bob Hawke because he would definitely beat the Fraser coalition government after 8 years and 3 months in office, it was the final straw for Hayden, who was pissed off his party had turned on him, not as a person, but driven by desire to obtain political power, Bill uttered these famous words at his press conference announcing he was giving up the leadership of the party;


“I believe a drover’s dog could lead the Labor Party to victory the way the country is and the way the opinion polls are.”

Uttered by Labor’s Bill Hayden on the day the 1983 election was called, as he dramatically announced his resignation as opposition leader to make way for the irresistible force of Bob Hawke, these words are part of Australian political folklore.

Hayden had every right to feel bitter, as his last-minute supplanting by Hawke robbed him of the opportunity to become prime minister. He had inherited Labor’s leadership more than five years before, when it was reeling from crushing defeat. He had worked conscientiously to restore the party’s shattered stocks by building around him a united and talented front bench, and had overseen a major renovation of the party’s policy program.

Hawkie over the next few years was occasionally referred to as the Drover's Dog.


 
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