Is Chris Scott heading down the same path as Gary Ayres at Geelong?

[Macca18]

Gary Ayres, after being assistant coach at Kardinia Park, received the Geelong coaching job at the end of 1994 after Malcolm Blight called it quits after taking the club to three Grand Finals in a six year period, but failing to win any.

Ayres inherited a quality & experienced list of players that included Gary Ablett, Billy Brownless, Paul Couch, Ben Graham, Leigh Colbert, Garry Hocking, Liam Pickering and the likes. All big Geelong people at the time.

In his first year as senior coach in 1995 with this group of experienced players (and a small blend of youngsters including Colbert) the Cats defied pre-season expectations and started the season in a blaze of glory, eventually finishing the year with 16 wins and 2nd position on the ladder. Ayres was being lauded as a potential master coach. The one dominant team however in 1995 was Carlton, who finished top with 20 victories. They would meet in the Grand Final only for Carlton to tear the Cats to pieces on the big day.

After a successful debut year for Ayres at the Cats, things got a little harder. With this same group of experienced veterans they would make the finals again in 1996 & 1997 before the rot set in when it was time to reinvent the side. 1998 & 1999 were complete disasters for Geelong as they tumbled badly down the ladder and huge pressure was placed on Ayres to find a quicker remedy to fast track the development of youngsters in the side after the loss of experienced players such as Ablett, Brownless, Couch and the likes. Ayres quickly took off at the end of 1999 (for a less than memorable stint at the Crows) and was replaced by Mark Thompson.

I can already see some similarities between the Geelong of 1995 and the Geelong of 2011. Quality experienced players nearing the end of their careers wanting one last tilt at a flag behind dominant sides of the time (Carlton 1995 and now Collingwood 2011) and trying to find that balance of planning for life after these greats retire as well. The Cats have added the likes of Menzel & Duncan to their side of late and it seems to paying dividends. Obviously it's only six weeks into Scott's tenure at Geelong, but what does he need to do to ensure a similar Ayres like tumble down the ladder doesn't occur again? Not only did it have a significant impact on the Cats on the field, but off it as well with an enormous financial debt by the end of 1990's.

 

[vinum coupe]

Wow, that's drawing a long bow.
You do know that Ayres was a dud though right?

 

[Cudi_420]

lol, Gary Ayres

 

[catman2006]

Not really as Geelong didn't have any depth back in 1996 to top up the team unlike current group of players we have potential to add 6 to 7 good players that will slot in over next 2 years, the club was also going bankrupt during 1996 so not very good for morale to be around again unlike our current situation which is good.
Geelong will need to find another 3 or 4 players over nest 3 drafts but also have free agency to plunder as salary cap space becomes available, Geelong could be in for a very short rebuild, while kids coming though probably won't replicate last 4 years, any team we find it hard to win 86 of 100 games.

Let's be honest the only good thing Ayres did at Geelong was bring a more defensive outlook as Geelong up to that point were all about attacking.

 

[TownleyTime]

His true test will be is how he pensions off Ling, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens & co. The general perception is that he has changed Geelong's style of play & pushed for the promotion of youth. If you look at the article by Michael Glesson in the Age today, not a lot has changed in those 2 regards.

 

[Skids]

Yes. He is growing a luxurious mullet as we speak.

 

[Manic Shadow]

Not really as Geelong didn't have any depth back in 1996 to top up the team unlike current group of players we have potential to add 6 to 7 good players that will slot in over next 2 years, the club was also going bankrupt during 1996 so not very good for morale to be around again unlike our current situation which is good.
Geelong will need to find another 3 or 4 players over nest 3 drafts but also have free agency to plunder as salary cap space becomes available, Geelong could be in for a very short rebuild, while kids coming though probably won't replicate last 4 years, any team we find it hard to win 86 of 100 games.

Let's be honest the only good thing Ayres did at Geelong was bring a more defensive outlook as Geelong up to that point were all about attacking.

sounds familiar huh?!

 

[Sttew]

Nice try Macca18. The only similarity is that Ayres and Scott coach a team wearing blue and white hoops.

I do appreciate your confidence in Scott taking the Cats to the 2011 GF. I wasn't looking that far ahead.

 

[He_Beast]

I would tip them to make the grand final in his first season, but that's about where the similarity ends. There's plenty of coaches who have been in a similar experience in regard to playing experience vs youth and it's relation to a having a shot at a premiership.

 

[bobsyouruncle]

Fingers crossed Carlton v Geeliong in the GF like 1995? lol

 

[catman2006]

sounds familiar huh?!

Nope cause we already know how to defend just a change of tactics are needed like a zone instead of 1 on 1.

 

[CF]

we lost in 1995 to a bunch of cheaters.

The answer to your question is no. Chriss Scott is nothing like Gary Ayres.

 

[Sttew]

Fingers crossed Carlton v Geeliong in the GF like 1995? lol

Oh, yes please, because it would be a massacre Geelong's way.

 

[Partridge]

His true test will be is how he pensions off Ling, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens & co. The general perception is that he has changed Geelong's style of play & pushed for the promotion of youth. If you look at the article by Michael Glesson in the Age today, not a lot has changed in those 2 regards.

The fact is though, Thompson didn't consider Duncan, Menzel or Taylor Hunt in his best 22. Scott does. Absolutely agree the big test will be promoting a youngster in place of someone like Mooney or Milburn, but right now he's been pretty fair with his selections.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Fingers crossed Carlton v Geeliong in the GF like 1995? lol

Geelong would smash you.

 

[bobsyouruncle]

Geelong would smash you.

I think we've seen ample evidence in the last few years that if one team is off a little bit on the day or the other team lifts a bit the result becomes less predictable. So I don't give a rats what people "think" the result is going to be, if it was Carlton v Geelong I would think we have a decent chance to win. On paper yes Geelong should, but we still won a couple of games against them last few years that people were tipping us not to.

*edit* which is why AFL is interesting to watch. Each match can be decided by acts of brilliance, injuries or poor form on the day. How many times in the history of AFL/VFL did the minor premiers go on to win? Sure the odds are better, but not guranteed.

 

[SweetLeftFoot]

Yes. He is growing a luxurious mullet as we speak.

We all are. The difference is in when we decide to get a haircut.

Ponder on that.

 

[LifeSpan-Void]

The only thing Chris Scott needs to do successfully to not suffer the fate of Gary Ayres-era Geelong, is to not replace the retired champions with mostly duds - also ensure that the party-time culture doesn't return to Skilled, those boys in the late 90s were all about AFTER the game as opposed to winning the game. Milburn, Scarlett and Wojcinski arrived on the tail end of it.

 

[Cursed Cat]

We all are. The difference is in when we decide to get a haircut.

Ponder on that.

a metaphorical mullet ?
hmmm, I really do have to ponder that ...

in answer to the OP's fairly reasonable question; it is too early to say.

Chris Scott seems to be well aware of the delicate balance he must strike with the current list.
The veterans currently running around in the hoops are different to the mob Ayres coached in that they have delivered success to the GFC, and therefore deserve a measure of respect and faith.
Scott has already shown a willingness to blood young players.
The test will come when blokes like Mooney, Milburn and Ling start to show definite signs of reduced output (one could argue that Mooney is already in that category).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

His true test will be is how he pensions off Ling, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens & co. The general perception is that he has changed Geelong's style of play & pushed for the promotion of youth. If you look at the article by Michael Glesson in the Age today, not a lot has changed in those 2 regards.

Bollocks.

Chris Scott dropped Josh Hunt so he wouldn't have to drop Taylor Hunt, would Thompson have done that? No, because he did the opposite last year.

While I'd like to see more youth played, more youth is getting a go now than it would have if Scott wasn't coach, and that's a fact.

I do agree with you though that one of the big tests for him will be how hard he pushes for players to retire at the end of this year and next, how many go at once and how he manages that transition.

 

[TownleyTime]

Bollocks.

Chris Scott dropped Josh Hunt so he wouldn't have to drop Taylor Hunt, would Thompson have done that? No, because he did the opposite last year.

Last weeks inclusions were Cameron Mooney (32) & Josh Hunt (29). This year, J Hunt has played 5 of Geelong's 6 games. He has played 1 less game than at the same point last year.

From the PF side, 18 of the 22 played against North. Ling & Johnson were rested & would have played if it was a meaningful game. 20/22 is not turning the list over with youth.

 

[TD05]

I see the parallels, but to me, Ayres was a bit clueless when it came to coaching and only did a good job because he did inherit the list. Did take them to the top of the ladder in `97, though (didn't he?). They fell over in the finals but were unlucky. They drew North in the first week who finished lower due to injuries, but who were up and firing come the business end of the season. Probably unlucky to lose the final in Adelaide. Colbert should have been paid a mark and it may have made the difference.

As for Scott, only time will tell. The youngsters he is playing do look good to me, though their job is made easier by having the opposition hands full with the abundance of talent across the ground. This can only help their development.

Not sure about Mooney. Has a big presence, but Stevie Wonder could do his job. One guy I've been impressed with so far this year is Hawkins. He's been much maligned and has developed slowly, but this year he seems to be more confident in backing himself and reading the play. Is really starting to have an impact and, perhaps, that can be put down to good coaching from Scott.

Shall be interesting...

 

[Sinner]

I think we've seen ample evidence in the last few years that if one team is off a little bit on the day or the other team lifts a bit the result becomes less predictable. So I don't give a rats what people "think" the result is going to be, if it was Carlton v Geelong I would think we have a decent chance to win. On paper yes Geelong should, but we still won a couple of games against them last few years that people were tipping us not to.

*edit* which is why AFL is interesting to watch. Each match can be decided by acts of brilliance, injuries or poor form on the day. How many times in the history of AFL/VFL did the minor premiers go on to win? Sure the odds are better, but not guranteed.

Geelong could smash the blues, but if Judd got off the leash he could tear us to shreds. Win a Brownlow, NS and Premie in a week.

 

[Slattery_20]

In Thompson's defence tho, with the young v old players; every year (theoretically) the young guys are improving and the older guys declining. What was the right call at the end of 09 may not have been the right call at the start of '10 and what was the right call for a final in '10 may not be the right call now.

Scott's true test will come when he has to make a call on a player/s he's trusted & who's performed for 8 years v a kid who's played 8 games.
Slightly different scenario coming in 'cold' with no allegiances and history there.

If the players were running the asylum as much as rumoured then no coach would have a chance.

 

[SJ]

Gary Ayres, after being assistant coach at Kardinia Park, received the Geelong coaching job at the end of 1994 after Malcolm Blight called it quits after taking the club to three Grand Finals in a six year period, but failing to win any.

Ayres inherited a quality & experienced list of players that included Gary Ablett, Billy Brownless, Paul Couch, Ben Graham, Leigh Colbert, Garry Hocking, Liam Pickering and the likes. All big Geelong people at the time.

In his first year as senior coach in 1995 with this group of experienced players (and a small blend of youngsters including Colbert) the Cats defied pre-season expectations and started the season in a blaze of glory, eventually finishing the year with 16 wins and 2nd position on the ladder. Ayres was being lauded as a potential master coach. The one dominant team however in 1995 was Carlton, who finished top with 20 victories. They would meet in the Grand Final only for Carlton to tear the Cats to pieces on the big day.

After a successful debut year for Ayres at the Cats, things got a little harder. With this same group of experienced veterans they would make the finals again in 1996 & 1997 before the rot set in when it was time to reinvent the side. 1998 & 1999 were complete disasters for Geelong as they tumbled badly down the ladder and huge pressure was placed on Ayres to find a quicker remedy to fast track the development of youngsters in the side after the loss of experienced players such as Ablett, Brownless, Couch and the likes. Ayres quickly took off at the end of 1999 (for a less than memorable stint at the Crows) and was replaced by Mark Thompson.

I can already see some similarities between the Geelong of 1995 and the Geelong of 2011. Quality experienced players nearing the end of their careers wanting one last tilt at a flag behind dominant sides of the time (Carlton 1995 and now Collingwood 2011) and trying to find that balance of planning for life after these greats retire as well. The Cats have added the likes of Menzel & Duncan to their side of late and it seems to paying dividends. Obviously it's only six weeks into Scott's tenure at Geelong, but what does he need to do to ensure a similar Ayres like tumble down the ladder doesn't occur again? Not only did it have a significant impact on the Cats on the field, but off it as well with an enormous financial debt by the end of 1990's.

And yet Geelong still didn't finish lower than 12th.

To put it into context, in the past six seasons every team bar four (Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, West Coast, Western Bulldogs) have finished bottom four.

To be honest if Geelong can stay out of the bottom four over the next five years and come out the other side on the way up I think they will have done a wonderful job.