The_Reaper
Hall of Famer
I've gone through the team lists on the AFL Season guide and collated stats for the states of the 719 players on AFL main lists as of the start of 2014.
If we split Victoria into Country and Metro we get
In theory a balanced AFL list with no recruiting biases should have a player breakdown that resembles this. I have chosen to measure bias by taking the percentage of players in a team from a state. and subtracting the percentage of players in the AFL from that state
For instance have 9 Western Australians (22.5%) on their list of 40 which would give them a pro WA bias of 4.98.
However since the average senior list is made up of 40 people- one player is worth 2.5%. So in reality Essendon's pro WA bias is equivalent to two extra Western Australians.
Very few teams will be without a home state bias, largely because most teams have a tendency to draft locals with lower order draft picks and in the case of two similarily rated players will generally draft the local.
Since WA and SA produce draftees well in excess of their own club demands the four WA/SA clubs benefit the most from the 'go home factor' which will increase their biases. So any excessive pro WA bias by West Coast is best measured in comparison to Adelaide, Fremantle and Port Adelaide.
This table is pretty straightforward.
One thing that is glaringly obvious is that 67.50% of the West Coast list is Western Australian. With Vic Metro and Country divided Richmond (52.63%) is the only other team with an excess of 50% of their list from their 'home state'.
West Coast's home state bias however is 50 whilst Richmond's is 21.2.
When we combine Victoria Metro and Country we see that a few teams match the Eagles in regards to players from the one state. North, Richmond and the Bulldogs all have over 70% Victorians. Interestingly North and the Bulldogs would be two of the least resourced clubs and Richmond's list is just as mediocre as West Coasts.
Essendon and GWS are also 67% Victorian.
Though of course we know that half of the players on senior lists are Victorian and to match the Eagles WA bias a club would have to only have Victorians.
It's not surprising to anyone that the traditional non Victorian teams dominate. But whilst Adelaide, Fremantle, Port Adelaide and Sydney all have bias's in the 20s- West Coast bias is a massive 49.98.
From this we can safely conclude that West Coast have an irrational recruiting bias which can explain the holes in the list, especially given that West Coast do not even have priority access to the less than 20% of the talent pool they restrict themselves to.
It gets interesting when we look at the 13 non Western Australians on the West Coast list. They are all from SA and VIC.
Of the 13, six players were drafted while Chris Judd was still at the club- Mitchell Brown, Sam Butler, Shannon Hurn, Matt Rosa, Will Schofield and Beau Waters.
Two players were brought in last year -Xavier Ellis and Malcolm Karpany. Ellis had an existing professional relationship with the new West Coast coach Adam Simpson.
The other five players are Andrew Gaff, Scott Lycett, Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey and Ashley Smith. Gaff would never have been picked if David Swallow and Harley Bennell were still avaliable, probably even if he were as talented as those two. Scott Selwood's brother was already playing for West Coast. Lycett and Shuey arguably got drafted lower than their actual values and indeed Lycett was an obvious eventual Cox replacement.
Last year West Coast set their mind up on drafting Western Australian Dom Sheed with their first pick. This allowed West Coast to trade down their first round pick from 6 to 11- knowing that the clubs with picks 6 to 10 would not draft Sheed.
Now it's very early days for Sheed but it was a very interesting move by West Coast and to me it indicates the pro WA bias of the recruiters.
Now lets look at some of the recent drafts and trades by the club. I've bolded the Western Australians
*Father Son
2013
National Draft- Dom Sheed, Malcolm Karpany, Tom Barrass, Dylan Main
Rookie Elevation- Jamie Bennell, Jeremy McGovern, Simon Tunbridge
Free Agent- Xavier Ellis
Trade - Elliot Yeo
2012
National Draft- Brant Colledge, Adam Carter, Mark Hutchings
Rookie Elevation- Brad Dick
Trade - Jamie Cripps, Cale Morton, Sharrod Wellingham
2011
National Draft - Murray Newman, Fraser McInnes
Rookie Elevation - Ashton Hams
Trade - Josh Hill
Pre-Season - Blayne Wilson
2010
National Draft- Andrew Gaff, Jack Darling, Scott Lycett, Jacob Brennan*
Rookie Elevation- Lewis Stevenson, Callum Wilson, Andrew Strijk
Pre Season- Ryan Neates
2009
National Draft- Brad Sheppard, Gerrick Weedon, Koby Stevens
Trade- Bradd Dalziell
2008
National Draft- Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Tom Swift, Ashley Smith, Jordan Jones
Rookie Elevation- Patrick McGinnity, Beau Maister (Wilkes)
2007
National Draft- Chris Masten, Brad Ebert, Tony Notte, Scott Selwood
Rookie Elevation- Chad Jones, Jamie McNamara
Trade- Josh Kennedy
Chris Judd Trade
2006
National Draft- Mitchell Brown, Eric MacKenzie, Tim Houlihan, Will Schofield, James Thomson
Rookie Elevation- Steven Armstrong, Matt Priddis
2005
National Draft- Shannon Hurn, Ben McKinley, Matt Spangher
Rookie Elevation- Jaymie Graham
2004
National Draft- Matt Rosa, Mark LeCras, Mitch Morton*, Brad Smith
Rookie Elevation- Brett Jones
2003
National Draft- Beau Waters, Sam Butler, Daniel McConnell
Rookie Elevation- Zach Beeck, Mark Nicoski
2002
National Draft- Paul Johnson, Brent Staker, Adam Selwood
Rookie Elevation- Quinten Lynch
Trade- Damien Adkins, Daniel Chick
2001
National Draft- Chris Judd, Ashley Sampi, Mark Seaby, Ashley Hansen
Pre Season- Troy Wilson
To me it's pretty obvious that West Coast as a club lost the courage to recruit from around the country after 2007. And that has to play a massive role in why West Coast has gone from a strong club on and off the field to a mediocre club only interested with the balance sheet.
If we split Victoria into Country and Metro we get
In theory a balanced AFL list with no recruiting biases should have a player breakdown that resembles this. I have chosen to measure bias by taking the percentage of players in a team from a state. and subtracting the percentage of players in the AFL from that state
For instance have 9 Western Australians (22.5%) on their list of 40 which would give them a pro WA bias of 4.98.
However since the average senior list is made up of 40 people- one player is worth 2.5%. So in reality Essendon's pro WA bias is equivalent to two extra Western Australians.
Very few teams will be without a home state bias, largely because most teams have a tendency to draft locals with lower order draft picks and in the case of two similarily rated players will generally draft the local.
Since WA and SA produce draftees well in excess of their own club demands the four WA/SA clubs benefit the most from the 'go home factor' which will increase their biases. So any excessive pro WA bias by West Coast is best measured in comparison to Adelaide, Fremantle and Port Adelaide.
This table is pretty straightforward.
One thing that is glaringly obvious is that 67.50% of the West Coast list is Western Australian. With Vic Metro and Country divided Richmond (52.63%) is the only other team with an excess of 50% of their list from their 'home state'.
West Coast's home state bias however is 50 whilst Richmond's is 21.2.
When we combine Victoria Metro and Country we see that a few teams match the Eagles in regards to players from the one state. North, Richmond and the Bulldogs all have over 70% Victorians. Interestingly North and the Bulldogs would be two of the least resourced clubs and Richmond's list is just as mediocre as West Coasts.
Essendon and GWS are also 67% Victorian.
Though of course we know that half of the players on senior lists are Victorian and to match the Eagles WA bias a club would have to only have Victorians.
It's not surprising to anyone that the traditional non Victorian teams dominate. But whilst Adelaide, Fremantle, Port Adelaide and Sydney all have bias's in the 20s- West Coast bias is a massive 49.98.
From this we can safely conclude that West Coast have an irrational recruiting bias which can explain the holes in the list, especially given that West Coast do not even have priority access to the less than 20% of the talent pool they restrict themselves to.
It gets interesting when we look at the 13 non Western Australians on the West Coast list. They are all from SA and VIC.
Of the 13, six players were drafted while Chris Judd was still at the club- Mitchell Brown, Sam Butler, Shannon Hurn, Matt Rosa, Will Schofield and Beau Waters.
Two players were brought in last year -Xavier Ellis and Malcolm Karpany. Ellis had an existing professional relationship with the new West Coast coach Adam Simpson.
The other five players are Andrew Gaff, Scott Lycett, Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey and Ashley Smith. Gaff would never have been picked if David Swallow and Harley Bennell were still avaliable, probably even if he were as talented as those two. Scott Selwood's brother was already playing for West Coast. Lycett and Shuey arguably got drafted lower than their actual values and indeed Lycett was an obvious eventual Cox replacement.
Last year West Coast set their mind up on drafting Western Australian Dom Sheed with their first pick. This allowed West Coast to trade down their first round pick from 6 to 11- knowing that the clubs with picks 6 to 10 would not draft Sheed.
Now it's very early days for Sheed but it was a very interesting move by West Coast and to me it indicates the pro WA bias of the recruiters.
Now lets look at some of the recent drafts and trades by the club. I've bolded the Western Australians
*Father Son
2013
National Draft- Dom Sheed, Malcolm Karpany, Tom Barrass, Dylan Main
Rookie Elevation- Jamie Bennell, Jeremy McGovern, Simon Tunbridge
Free Agent- Xavier Ellis
Trade - Elliot Yeo
2012
National Draft- Brant Colledge, Adam Carter, Mark Hutchings
Rookie Elevation- Brad Dick
Trade - Jamie Cripps, Cale Morton, Sharrod Wellingham
2011
National Draft - Murray Newman, Fraser McInnes
Rookie Elevation - Ashton Hams
Trade - Josh Hill
Pre-Season - Blayne Wilson
2010
National Draft- Andrew Gaff, Jack Darling, Scott Lycett, Jacob Brennan*
Rookie Elevation- Lewis Stevenson, Callum Wilson, Andrew Strijk
Pre Season- Ryan Neates
2009
National Draft- Brad Sheppard, Gerrick Weedon, Koby Stevens
Trade- Bradd Dalziell
2008
National Draft- Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Tom Swift, Ashley Smith, Jordan Jones
Rookie Elevation- Patrick McGinnity, Beau Maister (Wilkes)
2007
National Draft- Chris Masten, Brad Ebert, Tony Notte, Scott Selwood
Rookie Elevation- Chad Jones, Jamie McNamara
Trade- Josh Kennedy
Chris Judd Trade
2006
National Draft- Mitchell Brown, Eric MacKenzie, Tim Houlihan, Will Schofield, James Thomson
Rookie Elevation- Steven Armstrong, Matt Priddis
2005
National Draft- Shannon Hurn, Ben McKinley, Matt Spangher
Rookie Elevation- Jaymie Graham
2004
National Draft- Matt Rosa, Mark LeCras, Mitch Morton*, Brad Smith
Rookie Elevation- Brett Jones
2003
National Draft- Beau Waters, Sam Butler, Daniel McConnell
Rookie Elevation- Zach Beeck, Mark Nicoski
2002
National Draft- Paul Johnson, Brent Staker, Adam Selwood
Rookie Elevation- Quinten Lynch
Trade- Damien Adkins, Daniel Chick
2001
National Draft- Chris Judd, Ashley Sampi, Mark Seaby, Ashley Hansen
Pre Season- Troy Wilson
To me it's pretty obvious that West Coast as a club lost the courage to recruit from around the country after 2007. And that has to play a massive role in why West Coast has gone from a strong club on and off the field to a mediocre club only interested with the balance sheet.
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