Is the Judd trade responsible for the state of the WCE list?

[The_Reaper]

Really like the effort the OP has made
How has the concessions given to GC/GWS affected drafting in those years?
How many players were removed from the available pool?

The concessions took out quite a bit of WA talent- Swallow, Bennell and Matera (the draft after we won the spoon) and later Coniglio, O'Meara and Martin.

The only ones we would have gotten would be Swallow or Bennell instead of Gaff

 

[Roobs321]

I don't think the WA recuiting bias is necessarily hurting them, but the fact that the best of WA's young talent is being taken in each draft prior to West Coast's pick is what's really doing them in. Seems like WA as a state has two-three young guns go in the top 10 every year, yet they rarely fall to the Eagles. If they'd been able to somehow land a David Swallow, or Harley Bennell, or Jaeger O'Meara, or Stephen Coniglio, things might look a little different going forward.

Also, this might be a controversial thought, but considering West Coast's needs at the moment (outside speed, footskills), may it have been a better choice to go with Stephen Hill over Nic Naitanui in 2008?

Was thinking along similar lines myself. It did seem around 2007-ish that WA players started to regularly feature in the top several picks. I don't really see anything to suggest that if WCE have a pick in the top handful of the draft, that they opt for a WA player. I think the go home factor of stockpiling prospects like Morton, Dalziell, Bennell, etc. is more relevant here. WCE have given an opportunity to a lot of these players in recent times, whereas several years back WCE was rarely active in trade week, and was more of an exporter for draft order picks than the reverse.

Recent intensity of trade activity and WA high-end draft talent seem to be relevant. However, I agree that WCE could do with a little more prospecting, particularly in NSW/QLD. Maybe cultural concerns were factored in to drafting in the years immediately following 2007. Culture insecurity probably more at issue here than Judd trade (even though both are related).

 

[Freomaniac]

gotta laugh - so only 33% of our list comes from the eastern states, and we still land the spuds of Selwood, Gaff and Shuey.

Anyway, it all comes down to the talent scouts and recruiting staff as to where you finish on the ladder. If we take Dangerfield in front of Masten in 2007, Dayne Beams ahead of Shuey in 2008, and Fyfe in front of Sheppard in 2009, and Heppell in front of Gaff in 2010, we would be winning premierships right now.

Masten, Shuey, Shepperd and Gaff
vs
Dangerfield, Beams, Fyfe and Heppell.

Scary how good one team could be if you get it right at the AFL draft table. Oh well.

Bingo.

Hell I will add one more. Tom Swift over Rory Sloane and Dan Haneberry in 2008.

Its no different from freo choosing Jayden Pitt over Jack Darling or not getting McGovern as a late pick before West coast got him as a rookie list or Using Pick 24 for Clayton Hinkley when the crows used pick 75 for Taylor Walker in the 2007 draft (Yes thats going extreme that last one I know).

Speaking of 2008, would you still take Nic Nat over Stephen Hill or Dan Rich? Probably not

your team is lucky though. At least your team didnt get Cale Morton, Jack Watts or Richard tambling with a top 10 pick

 

[lmach]

Speaking of 2008, would you still take Nic Nat over Stephen Hill or Dan Rich? Probably not

Lol. We would be stupid not to.

 

[Galileo9]

Bingo.

Hell I will add one more. Tom Swift over Rory Sloane and Dan Haneberry in 2008.

Its no different from freo choosing Jayden Pitt over Jack Darling or not getting McGovern as a late pick before West coast got him as a rookie list or Using Pick 24 for Clayton Hinkley when the crows used pick 75 for Taylor Walker in the 2007 draft (Yes thats going extreme that last one I know).

Speaking of 2008, would you still take Nic Nat over Stephen Hill or Dan Rich? Probably not

your team is lucky though. At least your team didnt get Cale Morton, Jack Watts or Richard tambling with a top 10 pick

in a heartbeat we would take Nic Nat. then rich. then several others….then hill.

still find it fascinating that people don't see that without NN, our midfield would even be worse. but people choose to focus on what he doesn't do.

 

[Coaster2012]

Bingo.

Hell I will add one more. Tom Swift over Rory Sloane and Dan Haneberry in 2008.

Its no different from freo choosing Jayden Pitt over Jack Darling or not getting McGovern as a late pick before West coast got him as a rookie list or Using Pick 24 for Clayton Hinkley when the crows used pick 75 for Taylor Walker in the 2007 draft (Yes thats going extreme that last one I know).

Speaking of 2008, would you still take Nic Nat over Stephen Hill or Dan Rich? Probably not

your team is lucky though. At least your team didnt get Cale Morton, Jack Watts or Richard tambling with a top 10 pick

What an odd thing to say. If we regretted that decision, why the hell did we just make him a millionaire?

 

[Freomaniac]

What an odd thing to say. If we regretted that decision, why the hell did we just make him a millionaire?

Im just making a random scenario...

Would hill or Rich improve the eagles midfield? If so would of been worth it to pass on Nic Nat?

 

[Scotland]

Would not be unhappy with Hill, but would not trade Naitanui to get him.

 

[The_Reaper]

Im just making a random scenario...

Would hill or Rich improve the eagles midfield? If so would of been worth it to pass on Nic Nat?

If we were going to regret missing one of the Hills it would be McInnes ahead of Brad

 

[Freomaniac]

Would not be unhappy with Hill, but would not trade Naitanui to get him.

sounds about right.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Instead of blaming the WA-priority policy that the club adopted after Judd left because of "homesickness", maybe look at how the club managed the high-profile players with well know (or at least rumoured) off-field issues and the possibility of that having a cumulative effect on Judd wanting out.

I'm all for going for WA-based players for Freo/West Coast, but at the end of the day the clubs should go for the best players available at the time (well, as the club thinks) and at the same time work on building a good community around the club so the players who are drafted from outside of WA (or even remote WA) are happy, well accommodated and happy to stay long term.

On-field success is part of this (and perceived on-field success in the future), but it's a deal-breaker if the club is welcoming enough for non WA-based players

 

[Scotland]

sounds about right.

I think most clubs would be happy with their first round picks from the 2008 draft, save for a few exceptions.

 

[nobbyiscool]

For as long as clubs have been whinging about the COL Allowance for the Sydney teams, I've lived in Canberra (albeit no AFL team), and I've spent plenty of time in Brisbane, Melbourne and Gold Coast. I've admittedly only been to Perth once.

To actually see, experience and talk to people about the cost of living in these places, the notion that the COLA is anything other than an enticement to get players to live in non-AFL states is ridiculous.

In the context of this discussion, I'm wondering all over again how this ever came about. Surely the COLA should be replaced by a simple living away from home allowance - players who get drafted outside of their home states get some sort of premium on top of their normal contract for living away from home. The player then loses that advantage if they move teams, regardless of where they go (to avoid a Tippett situation), and they don't get that allowance if they choose to go later in their career (ala Franklin) - this is purely a mechanism to level the playing field a little more as it relates to drafting, to try and remove some of that go home factor. So the player does retain that premium for future contracts, assuming they stay with the team that drafted them.

I still haven't really drawn my own conclusion from the OP, but as an Eagles fan I think it's clear that we've become gun-shy about interstate players. We were nervous before Judd, we were gun-shy after Judd... If we were to lose Gaff on top of what happened with Tom Swift, I don't really know what you do then.

But the Eagles clearly aren't the only ones who have this problem - we saw Brisbane lose nearly every bit of young talent they had last season, we've already seen Caddy hold a gun to GCs head, and we're really only starting to enter the period of large-scale resignings for GC and GWS - but I think it's safe to assume that they'll lose some talent to players going home.

We know the AFLPA want the free agency periods reduced. We know that, from the AFLs perspective, FA isn't working the way they envisaged it (ie. the rich are getting richer, whereas it was supposed to provide opportunities for mid-lower level players).

I wonder if this living away from home allowance, and the fact that a player would retain it for as long as they stay with the team that drafted them might present a trade-off whereby the AFL would budge on the FA periods.

 

[Boxhead_31]

Might be wrong but since the Judd trade WA has done rather well come carnival time has it not?
Meaning that the WA players would be the more likely to be the players drafted not just by WC and Freo but by all states rather than interstate players.
Might get more meaningful result with the analysis for the years where WA have performed poorly in the u/18 carnival

 

[lmach]

Im just making a random scenario...

Would hill or Rich improve the eagles midfield? If so would of been worth it to pass on Nic Nat?

Yes they would, with Naitanui. But replacing Naitanui with one of Rich or Hill would just make our midfield a whole lot worse.

 

[dlanod]

The other non Victorian clubs don't have an issue drafting Vics. Plus Vic Country boys won't care about Perth being a 'big country town' because it's massive compared to Maryborough or Yarrawonga.

Speaking on behalf of a club that documented its bias against drafting VM boys a few years ago, not completely true. And then it had its fears validated last year (Doc was more VM region than VC, coming from Philip Island).

 

[jim boy]

This shows two things:

* WCE realise that there isn't that much difference between a range of maybe ten players when you look at the draft, especially once you start getting past pick 20. Those players being roughly equal, they will go the local player and back themselves to develop the player.

* WC know the WA talent pool very, very well and are able to unearth players who are potentially AFL standard that other teams would not be aware of. Conversely they have nowhere near similar knowledge of similar level players in other states.

 

[clogged]

WA bias hardly seems the problem. Choosing Sheppard over Jetta or Fyfe is not WA bias - it's just poor drafting.

 

[NickoST]

The Eagles are stuck in the 90s and have become complacent. In fact, they have always been complacent recruiting wise.

Back then they could afford to run the club as a money-making machine because talent was handed to us on a platter.

But sadly, nothing's really changed with the way the club is run, and that's where the problem lies. They still run it as money-making machine without investing too much into recruiting, and this is at a time where recruiting as a whole in the footy industry has become much more professional and exhaustive.

We've been caught off guard. Look at our board of directors, they are primarily money-makers, and not footy types. We need a good mix like the Dockers.

Right now, maximising profit is the Eagles' main goal and not winning premierships. Actions speak a lot louder than words.

In 5 - 10 years Dockers will be the main club in WA. They are big amongst the younger generations, much more popular than the Eagles.

This complacency is going to come back and bite us in the a*** big time, if it hasn't already.

 

[Hap Hapablap]

you want to blame someone for our shitty list. blame the likes of worsfold, woodhouse and nisbett.

the over reliance on the kissing ass crew and not playing other talent earlier rather than later is now causing us problems.

the entire midfield needs huge rejigging. completely different set up even making priddis the 4th most important player

the judd trade cant be the only reason why we havent chased anyone outside of WA either. afl footballers arent mummy boys. proper research wouldve found us talent that were willing to stay put in perth.

look at pavlich for example. had many chances to leave. never did.

 

[Freomaniac]

This shows two things:

* WCE realise that there isn't that much difference between a range of maybe ten players when you look at the draft, especially once you start getting past pick 20. Those players being roughly equal, they will go the local player and back themselves to develop the player.

* WC know the WA talent pool very, very well and are able to unearth players who are potentially AFL standard that other teams would not be aware of. Conversely they have nowhere near similar knowledge of similar level players in other states.

Bingo.

If west coast had pick 5 and had to choose between a gun midfielder thats a local and a gun mid thats from interstate, they will choose the interstate mid most of the time. Ebert, Judd, Shannon Hurn and Andrew Gaff are good examples of this. Yet with the late draft picks, PSD picks and Rookie picks, they choose the local lads. Quentin Lynch, Dean Cox and now McGovern are examples of this.

WA bias hardly seems the problem. Choosing Sheppard over Jetta or Fyfe is not WA bias - it's just poor drafting.

exactly, with that early 1st round pick you could easily get a Ryan Griffen or a Richard Tambling.

The Eagles are stuck in the 90s and have become complacent. In fact, they have always been complacent recruiting wise.

Back then they could afford to run the club as a money-making machine because talent was handed to us on a platter.

But sadly, nothing's really changed with the way the club is run, and that's where the problem lies. They still run it as money-making machine without investing too much into recruiting, and this is at a time where recruiting as a whole in the footy industry has become much more professional and exhaustive.

We've been caught off guard. Look at our board of directors, they are primarily money-makers, and not footy types. We need a good mix like the Dockers.

Right now, maximising profit is the Eagles' main goal and not winning premierships. Actions speak a lot louder than words.

In 5 - 10 years Dockers will be the main club in WA. They are big amongst the younger generations, much more popular than the Eagles.

This complacency is going to come back and bite us in the a*** big time, if it hasn't already.

It could of been worse. I still remember watching Richmond: the lost years documentary on why the Tigers have struggled since 1982. To show you how badly run the club was in the early-mid 1990s, they only had no recruiting scout while all clubs had at least one decent recruiting scout. It came to a point where the coaches at the time had to scout players in the country leagues to get recruits.

Now days you have training camps and Scouts are really careful in recruiting, even with their late picks. Hence why the VFL, SANFL, WAFL and to a lesser degree TFL have been the main leagues of recruiting players.

you want to blame someone for our shitty list. blame the likes of worsfold, woodhouse and nisbett.

the over reliance on the kissing ass crew and not playing other talent earlier rather than later is now causing us problems.

the entire midfield needs huge rejigging. completely different set up even making priddis the 4th most important player

the judd trade cant be the only reason why we havent chased anyone outside of WA either. afl footballers arent mummy boys. proper research wouldve found us talent that were willing to stay put in perth.

look at pavlich for example. had many chances to leave. never did.

Worsfold would have very little to be blamed, he only worked what he was given. Sure he might have a say on what he wanted or needed but its Nisbett that has the final say.

The only recent Victorians that I can think of that have served 10 years at the eagles are David Wirrapanda, Adam Selwood and Michael Braun. All 3 played in the 2006 premiership side.

 

[Forward Press]

WA bias hardly seems the problem. Choosing Sheppard over Jetta or Fyfe is not WA bias - it's just poor drafting.

Freo also chose Morabito over Fyfe.

People like to pretend they are psychic around these parts when the reality was at the time Fyfe was not rated as a top 10 pick.

 

[Forward Press]

The only recent Victorians that I can think of that have served 10 years at the eagles are David Wirrapanda, Adam Selwood and Michael Braun. All 3 played in the 2006 premiership side.

In not very long Luke Shuey and Scott Selwood look likely to also serve 10 years as Victorian recruits. You also omit players like Shannon Hurn and Beau Waters - this discussion is about interstaters as a whole, not just Victorians. It is true we are gun-shy recently with regards to selecting interstate players with our mid draft picks - but I'd argue our development is somewhat lacking too.

 

[Freomaniac]

Freo also chose Morabito over Fyfe.

People like to pretend they are psychic around these parts when the reality was at the time Fyfe was not rated as a top 10 pick.

Good point. Sadly Morabitos career has been savaged by injury. Scott Gumbleton was a number 2 pick in the 2006 draft. Again he looked good in the local league and sadly has been savaged by injury too.

 

[Forward Press]

Good point. Sadly Morabitos career has been savaged by injury. Scott Gumbleton was a number 2 pick in the 2006 draft. Again he looked good in the local league and sadly has been savaged by injury too.

Sheppard isn't even that bad, and this year he's not been the worst by a long shot. The problem is that he was pick 7 and he hasn't lived up to it so far. As every footy fan knows, a top 10 pick or even pick 1 is never a surefire guarantee of a future gun.