Is the Judd trade responsible for the state of the WCE list?

[The_Reaper]

Interesting study. Have there been first round picks where that Eagles had taken where the player wasn't rated around that pick? My impression from draft threads has been that Eagles supporters have felt the club has largely done well at the draft, it has only been years later that they aren't happy with the players.

Flight risk is always a factor, it is why I am surprised interstate clubs do not hit Vic Country harder, it is not like coming back to Melbourne is going bring them any closer to their family in most scenarios.

You might be interested in happy_eagle 's post on this page

 

[rustyg70]

On the flip side, Would Carlton be any better if they kept Kennedy?
Its a well know fact that the Blues are now screaming out for a big Forward.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Interesting study. Have there been first round picks where that Eagles had taken where the player wasn't rated around that pick? My impression from draft threads has been that Eagles supporters have felt the club has largely done well at the draft, it has only been years later that they aren't happy with the players.

Flight risk is always a factor, it is why I am surprised interstate clubs do not hit Vic Country harder, it is not like coming back to Melbourne is going bring them any closer to their family in most scenarios.

Shep, Wedon, Newman, Notte and Brennen are felt to have been drafted to early at the time of the draft by West Coast supporters. Not surprisingly they're all WA kids

I think the OP has a very valid point

 

[Portmanteau]

Great OP, very interesting findings. I was actually surprised by our ranking, I felt that we had looked beyond SA a fair bit. I reckon that we draft interstate players frequently, but trade for South Australians, or sign them as free agents.

Also, interesting that Geelong don't seem to take state of origin into account. Being a destination club for the last 7 years would explain that. I wonder if they disproportionately draft from Geelong (and the surrounding areas) though?

 

[Silvagnis]

On the flip side, Would Carlton be any better if they kept Kennedy?
Its a well know fact that the Blues are now screaming out for a big Forward.

I'd say that trade was fairer and smarter than letting a premiership coach go for Buckley.

 

[The_Reaper]

Great OP, very interesting findings. I was actually surprised by our ranking, I felt that we had looked beyond SA a fair bit. I reckon that we draft interstate players frequently, but trade for South Australians, or sign them as free agents.

Also, interesting that Geelong don't seem to take state of origin into account. Being a destination club for the last 7 years would explain that. I wonder if they disproportionately draft from Geelong (and the surrounding areas) though?

Geelong are one of the two clubs with Vic Country as their main source of players. I suspect the Geelong Falcons are a part of that.

 

[koutamarto]

Is there a question in among all that?
Kudos for effort though.

 

[The Speaker]

Is there a question in among all that?

It's in the title.

 

[Andre]

Flight risk is always a factor, it is why I am surprised interstate clubs do not hit Vic Country harder, it is not like coming back to Melbourne is going bring them any closer to their family in most scenarios.

Of the non-Victorian sides, other than Brisbane (which is skewed as QLD being the weakest of the footy states, and not having GC/GWS draft advantages) Port has the most Vic. country players on their list. For the very reason that lots of them like Adelaide as closer to the country lifestyle than the big lights of Melbourne. Obviously we can't avoid Vic. metro players and haven't, but there's an obvious bias towards the country (given the number of players each throws up). They are and have been much less of a flight risk then the metro players.

 

[Blue and Gold Blood]

gotta laugh - so only 33% of our list comes from the eastern states, and we still land the spuds of Selwood, Gaff and Shuey.

Anyway, it all comes down to the talent scouts and recruiting staff as to where you finish on the ladder. If we take Dangerfield in front of Masten in 2007, Dayne Beams ahead of Shuey in 2008, and Fyfe in front of Sheppard in 2009, and Heppell in front of Gaff in 2010, we would be winning premierships right now.

Masten, Shuey, Shepperd and Gaff
vs
Dangerfield, Beams, Fyfe and Heppell.

Scary how good one team could be if you get it right at the AFL draft table. Oh well.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I'm actually of the opinion that West Coast have a good list going forward if Naitanui gets and stays fit.

Great age profile going forward, good list balance and developing talent across the board. They have a lot of players who will improve through the roof by playing another 20-30 games. Great young talls.

If they can add another couple of quality young mids via the draft and do well in free agency they'll contend again soon.

 

[james Dean]

On the flip side, Would Carlton be any better if they kept Kennedy?
Its a well know fact that the Blues are now screaming out for a big Forward.

Maybe you should start a new thread discussing that very question. I mean it's never been brought up on the website before

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Keeping Ebert certainly would've helped.

I thought at the time it was a mistake to draft him to begin with because he was always going to go home considering how big the name is in S.A

 

[Galileo9]

I think it just stands to reason that a clubs recruiting resources will be stronger in their home state, which leads to this situation.

We do have a shitload of WA lads though. Thankfully we're an awesome club and none of them ever want to go home.

yeah i am not sure this is right. this isn't the USA where you genuinely need massive amount of resources. or soccer. talent is relatively contained to WAFL colts and WAFL.

however i found this stunning and impossible to swallow. no wonder we drafted a lot of spuds over last decade. when you also include the fact that other teams do draft WA players, we aren't left with a lot of talent to actually recruit.

 

[BALKAN]

Very unique and interesting theory OP

 

[Paladin]

Excellent read kudos OP looks like you are onto something.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

The OP doesn't factor in a few different things. Firstly rookie elevations, including rookie picks which creates further appearance of bias. Drafting rookies from home states is something that is inherently more successful because they speculative and require more development time. I have no issue with this fact, but it should at least be addressed in the OP.

Around 2009 West Coast also moved their recruiting department from Western Australia to Victoria, which makes the changes to the ratio harder to understand.

 

[mehow2g]

I don't see a whole lot wrong with our list, the talent is there just gotto put it together some how.

 

[The_Reaper]

The OP doesn't factor in a few different things. Firstly rookie elevations, including rookie picks which creates further appearance of bias. Drafting rookies from home states is something that is inherently more successful because they speculative and require more development time. I have no issue with this fact, but it should at least be addressed in the OP.

Around 2009 West Coast also moved their recruiting department from Western Australia to Victoria, which makes the changes to the ratio harder to understand.

I've only included rookie elevations because they've ended up on the senior list and elevations take the place of a draft pick anyway.

I'd fully expect speculative rookie picks to be dominate by the home state and/or alligned VFL teams in Victoria. Because rookie lists are mature state league players, project players or lanky ruckmen.

 

[The_Reaper]

I don't see a whole lot wrong with our list, the talent is there just gotto put it together some how.

The talent isn't really there in the midfield. And interestingly enough, if you try and make a WA SOO side you'll see that there isn't a great deal of WA midfield talent outside Fyfe and the Gold Coast/GWS boys. And we didn't have a chance to draft Swallow, Bennell, O'Meara and Coniglio.

 

[benbanjo]

If anything it should have made the WCE list better by now.... so no....

 

[Scotland]

On the flip side, Would Carlton be any better if they kept Kennedy?
Its a well know fact that the Blues are now screaming out for a big Forward.

In hindsight, Carlton would've been better off giving up picks 1 & 3 and keeping Kennedy.

You can't predict the Fev situation in 2009 of course but it would basically be West Coast with Cotchin and Masten (we had little interest in Kruezer IIRC) vs Carlton with Kennedy in lieu of Kruezer.

 

[Leatherpoizoned]

Great post.It's a real issue. I think West Coast has not just developed an aversion to inter state players but I also think they recruit such bland players. There dosen't seem to be a great deal of diversity in the physical and personality types of their team This is really the first time West Coast has failed to build a squad which can contend, a lot to learn for both the club and it's supporters.

 

[Scotland]

If anything it should have made the WCE list better by now.... so no....

Losing Judd and Cousins (and effectively Kerr) at the same time forced our hand into rebuilding the list earlier than intended.

2007 saw us get Kennedy then have 4 picks in the first 22. We took Masten at 3, Ebert at 13, Notte at 20 and Selwood at 22. 50/50 split between WA and non WA. Notte was a bust, Ebert left because Port gave him a better opportunity (plus he's an Ebert) and the other two are just GOPs. The only mid we've drafted in the last few years that looks like being a star is Shuey (Vic) and he's stalled big time.

 

[Thetruth14]

I've gone through the team lists on the AFL Season guide and collated stats for the states of the 719 players on AFL main lists as of the start of 2014.

If we split Victoria into Country and Metro we get

View attachment 60932


In theory a balanced AFL list with no recruiting biases should have a player breakdown that resembles this. I have chosen to measure bias by taking the percentage of players in a team from a state. and subtracting the percentage of players in the AFL from that state
For instance have 9 Western Australians (22.5%) on their list of 40 which would give them a pro WA bias of 4.98.
However since the average senior list is made up of 40 people- one player is worth 2.5%. So in reality Essendon's pro WA bias is equivalent to two extra Western Australians.

Very few teams will be without a home state bias, largely because most teams have a tendency to draft locals with lower order draft picks and in the case of two similarily rated players will generally draft the local.
Since WA and SA produce draftees well in excess of their own club demands the four WA/SA clubs benefit the most from the 'go home factor' which will increase their biases. So any excessive pro WA bias by West Coast is best measured in comparison to Adelaide, Fremantle and Port Adelaide.

View attachment 60933



This table is pretty straightforward.
One thing that is glaringly obvious is that 67.50% of the West Coast list is Western Australian. With Vic Metro and Country divided Richmond (52.63%) is the only other team with an excess of 50% of their list from their 'home state'.
West Coast's home state bias however is 50 whilst Richmond's is 21.2.

When we combine Victoria Metro and Country we see that a few teams match the Eagles in regards to players from the one state. North, Richmond and the Bulldogs all have over 70% Victorians. Interestingly North and the Bulldogs would be two of the least resourced clubs and Richmond's list is just as mediocre as West Coasts.
Essendon and GWS are also 67% Victorian.

Though of course we know that half of the players on senior lists are Victorian and to match the Eagles WA bias a club would have to only have Victorians.

View attachment 60934


It's not surprising to anyone that the traditional non Victorian teams dominate. But whilst Adelaide, Fremantle, Port Adelaide and Sydney all have bias's in the 20s- West Coast bias is a massive 49.98.

From this we can safely conclude that West Coast have an irrational recruiting bias which can explain the holes in the list, especially given that West Coast do not even have priority access to the less than 20% of the talent pool they restrict themselves to.

It gets interesting when we look at the 13 non Western Australians on the West Coast list. They are all from SA and VIC.

Of the 13, six players were drafted while Chris Judd was still at the club- Mitchell Brown, Sam Butler, Shannon Hurn, Matt Rosa, Will Schofield and Beau Waters.
Two players were brought in last year -Xavier Ellis and Malcolm Karpany. Ellis had an existing professional relationship with the new West Coast coach Adam Simpson.

The other five players are Andrew Gaff, Scott Lycett, Scott Selwood, Luke Shuey and Ashley Smith. Gaff would never have been picked if David Swallow and Harley Bennell were still avaliable, probably even if he were as talented as those two. Scott Selwood's brother was already playing for West Coast. Lycett and Shuey arguably got drafted lower than their actual values and indeed Lycett was an obvious eventual Cox replacement.

Last year West Coast set their mind up on drafting Western Australian Dom Sheed with their first pick. This allowed West Coast to trade down their first round pick from 6 to 11- knowing that the clubs with picks 6 to 10 would not draft Sheed.
Now it's very early days for Sheed but it was a very interesting move by West Coast and to me it indicates the pro WA bias of the recruiters.

Now lets look at some of the recent drafts and trades by the club. I've bolded the Western Australians

*Father Son

2013
National Draft- Dom Sheed, Malcolm Karpany, Tom Barrass, Dylan Main
Rookie Elevation- Jamie Bennell, Jeremy McGovern, Simon Tunbridge
Free Agent- Xavier Ellis
Trade - Elliot Yeo

2012
National Draft- Brant Colledge, Adam Carter, Mark Hutchings
Rookie Elevation- Brad Dick
Trade - Jamie Cripps, Cale Morton, Sharrod Wellingham

2011
National Draft - Murray Newman, Fraser McInnes
Rookie Elevation - Ashton Hams
Trade - Josh Hill
Pre-Season - Blayne Wilson

2010
National Draft- Andrew Gaff, Jack Darling, Scott Lycett, Jacob Brennan*
Rookie Elevation- Lewis Stevenson, Callum Wilson, Andrew Strijk
Pre Season- Ryan Neates

2009
National Draft- Brad Sheppard, Gerrick Weedon, Koby Stevens
Trade- Bradd Dalziell

2008
National Draft- Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Tom Swift, Ashley Smith, Jordan Jones
Rookie Elevation- Patrick McGinnity, Beau Maister (Wilkes)

2007
National Draft- Chris Masten, Brad Ebert, Tony Notte, Scott Selwood
Rookie Elevation- Chad Jones, Jamie McNamara
Trade- Josh Kennedy

Chris Judd Trade

2006
National Draft- Mitchell Brown, Eric MacKenzie, Tim Houlihan, Will Schofield, James Thomson
Rookie Elevation- Steven Armstrong, Matt Priddis

2005
National Draft- Shannon Hurn, Ben McKinley, Matt Spangher
Rookie Elevation- Jaymie Graham

2004
National Draft- Matt Rosa, Mark LeCras, Mitch Morton*, Brad Smith
Rookie Elevation- Brett Jones

2003
National Draft- Beau Waters, Sam Butler, Daniel McConnell
Rookie Elevation- Zach Beeck, Mark Nicoski

2002
National Draft- Paul Johnson, Brent Staker, Adam Selwood
Rookie Elevation- Quinten Lynch
Trade- Damien Adkins, Daniel Chick

2001
National Draft- Chris Judd, Ashley Sampi, Mark Seaby, Ashley Hansen
Pre Season- Troy Wilson

To me it's pretty obvious that West Coast as a club lost the courage to recruit from around the country after 2007. And that has to play a massive role in why West Coast has gone from a strong club on and off the field to a mediocre club only interested with the balance sheet.

I''l tell you why you are where you are - Your club is an unprofessional boys club which is run by Trevor Nisbett and a bunch of school teachers with ties to private schools here in Perth.

Your recruiting department is a laughing stock in the industry - once a lauded group under Obrien and Woodhouse it's become a joke.

Not only that, you allow snakes to slither their way back in the door under the cover a larger scale announcements.

YOUR RECRUITING DEPARTMENT IS AN INDUSTRY LAUGHING STOCK.

I challenge you to walk up to any recruiter from any of the other 17 clubs and you'll simply get a smirk when you ask how you think they've gone over the last 5 years.