Opinion Is this where Carlton drops away? 2023 version

[WalshistheGOAT]

Not confident today. Gold Coast at home have a tendency to turn into world beaters.

 

[GC2015]

Not confident today. Gold Coast at home have a tendency to turn into world beaters.

We've been pretty good at home this year. Beat the defending premiers Geelong early in the year, almost beat the Dees, beat St Kilda and smashed Brisbane. We certainly seem to play better at home but we haven't faced a team on the brink of securing a finals spot so who knows what kind of result that could render.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

We've been pretty good at home this year. Beat the defending premiers Geelong early in the year, almost beat the Dees, beat St Kilda and smashed Brisbane. We certainly seem to play better at home but we haven't faced a team on the brink of securing a finals spot so who knows what kind of result that could render.

Team on the brink of securing a finals spot doesn't look like they've gotten off the plane. Exactly what I was worried about.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

GC2015

The Blues could get done for drug cheating, an asteroid may wipe out Earth, the AI could take over!!

I have done the sums. Just remember it’s not over yet!

 

[GC2015]

GC2015

The Blues could get done for drug cheating, an asteroid may wipe out Earth, the AI could take over!!

I have done the sums. Just remember it’s not over yet!

It's done mate. You can relax.

Well done Carlton. Too good today and have proven they're deserving September participants over the last two months.

Funny how the premise of this thread was true in a year that Carlton end up playing finals. What a rollercoaster ride for the Blues.

 

[Juddernaut08]

It's done mate. You can relax.

Well done Carlton. Too good today and have proven they're deserving September participants over the last two months.

Funny how the premise of this thread was true in a year that Carlton end up playing finals. What a rollercoaster ride for the Blues.

cheers mate. gc will be challenging next year.

talented list. dimma to bring coaching expertise

 

[The Fantom]

'Virtually everybody had them in the top 8'.

Not me.

 

[Juddernaut08]

And this is the Carlton problem in the essence - the club sells itself so hard, the media buy into this, and everyone for some reason rates them much higher than they actually are. They waste more time and money spruiking about their potential than actually delivering on field.

Last years late season losses (or failuers to win close games) just showed a team who was playing above themselves and didnt have the character to beat decent sides and grind out wins. What they did last season just screamed of an average team with no killer instinct - but a bit of talent and luck. Based on that, I certainly didnt rate them at the start of this year. I thought they'd be 8-10 position by seasons end, but couldnt understand all the mass beat up about them. Then after they started the year with a few wins, the media were pumping them up again even harder, but they didnt beat any teams of substance, they just beat lowly teams (excludin Geelong who was still recovering from a mass hangover).

They're just such an arrogant club - beating their own drum too hard, pumping themselves up and convincing the media of how great they are (when in fact they're not). Then when things dont work, they pull the trigger too hard and sack the coach or something sill, thus entering the viscious cycle they've been in for the last 25 years. They self-perpetuate the exact cycle they're in with trying to buy success and talking themselves up, rather than sticking the course. Best thing they can do here is let Voss see out his contract - no matter what - to break the cycle.

gotta have confidence to win games.

 

[GC2015]

Has to be one of the most bizarre seasons we've ever seen. Undefeated in the first four rounds, mixed results in the next three, a six game losing streak, a nine game winning streak and now a 32 point loss to end the home and away season. Now it's sudden death against a dangerous Sydney team. Absolutely rollercoaster ride for Carlton in 2023.

I guess the thread questions still applies. Is this where Carlton drops away and loses a home final to Sydney?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Has to be one of the most bizarre seasons we've ever seen. Undefeated in the first four rounds, mixed results in the next three, a six game losing streak, a nine game winning streak and now a 32 point loss to end the home and away season. Now it's sudden death against a dangerous Sydney team. Absolutely rollercoaster ride for Carlton in 2023.

I guess the thread questions still applies. Is this where Carlton drops away and loses a home final to Sydney?

What lol?

 

[GC2015]

What lol?

Unexpected sizeable loss to GWS in the final round and then a home final against an interstate team. The Blues will be the favourites to win that home elimination final so if they lose then they've dropped away from where people thought they were heading a week ago.

 

[MF]

They'd be happy just to make finals you'd think. Something to build on.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Unexpected sizeable loss to GWS in the final round and then a home final against an interstate team. The Blues will be the favourites to win that home elimination final so if they lose then they've dropped away from where people thought they were heading a week ago.

Resting Cripps and Docherty with 3 players back from a month out and Curnow, Weitering and Walsh spending half the last quarter on the bench. Something tells me we weren't too worried.

It's like having a dropped away thread for Melbourne or Collingwood rn. If they lose in finals its a loss, they didn't drop away because they lost a game.

 

[Freomaniac]

So they have gone from bottom 6 to 5th.

Their last finals win was 2013 or 2011 depends on your view.


2013 due to Carlton getting 9th but jumped to 8th with Essendon kicked out and Carlton beating up Richmond.

Or 2011 or legitimately finishing 5th or 6th, winning the Elim final and nearly beating eagles in the semi.

Now Carlton are 5th. I see them winning an Elim final. Then beating magpies or demons in a semi final

 

[kreuze_missile]

Blues still in the flag box seat.

Dodgy umpiring in an interstate prelim is the only worry.

Hope it’s in Brisbane as it’s not safe for away supporters in Adelaide.. plus the city’s a shithole.

 

[kreuze_missile]

They'd be happy just to make finals you'd think. Something to build on.

We will be building on a flag.

Thank you come again.

 

[T2B_]

Unexpected sizeable loss to GWS in the final round and then a home final against an interstate team. The Blues will be the favourites to win that home elimination final so if they lose then they've dropped away from where people thought they were heading a week ago.

Unexpected? Even Vossy seemed to allude to them experimenting a bit.

Also after a 9 game winning streak, probably good to get a loss out of the way.

 

[bourbons]

Unexpected sizeable loss to GWS in the final round and then a home final against an interstate team. The Blues will be the favourites to win that home elimination final so if they lose then they've dropped away from where people thought they were heading a week ago.

Not sure how unexpected it was - nothing to play for, GWS are a pretty good team who needed to win to make finals and not too many teams win 10 straight.

 

[GC2015]

Blues still in the flag box seat.

Quoting this for future reference. Despite the GWS loss in round 24, you think Carlton are in a better position than any other club to win the flag. We'll revisit this at some point over the next five weeks.

Not sure how unexpected it was - nothing to play for, GWS are a pretty good team who needed to win to make finals and not too many teams win 10 straight.

Carlton were the favourites with the bookies before the match so that would suggest most people thought the Blues were going to win. Don't forget - GWS were also missing their AA CHB in that game and Carlton had the two-time reigning Coleman Medalist in their forward line.

 

[Arr0w]

We have an answer after six consecutive losses. It's an emphatic yes.

Quoting this for future reference. Despite the GWS loss in round 24, you think Carlton are in a better position than any other club to win the flag. We'll revisit this at some point over the next five weeks.

Think you missed the point of that post, but your definitive statement above is somewhat different

Carlton were the favourites with the bookies before the match so that would suggest most people thought the Blues were going to win. Don't forget - GWS were also missing their AA CHB in that game and Carlton had the two-time reigning Coleman Medalist in their forward line.

The bookies? Yes of course they have never been wrong in framing a market and no non favourite has ever won a game

We are currently in a position of what we were capable of before the start of the season, 13-15 wins

While recent history suggests that top 3 sides are more likely to win the flag, I wouldn't write off any side, especially the Demons

 

[bourbons]

Carlton were the favourites with the bookies before the match so that would suggest most people thought the Blues were going to win. Don't forget - GWS were also missing their AA CHB in that game and Carlton had the two-time reigning Coleman Medalist in their forward line.

I tipped GWS.

What were the betting odds just out of interest?

 

[GC2015]

Think you missed the point of that post, but your definitive statement above is somewhat different

The bookies? Yes of course they have never been wrong in framing a market and no non favourite has ever won a game

We are currently in a position of what we were capable of before the start of the season, 13-15 wins

Both can be true. The six consecutive losses did suggest the predicted drop for Carlton was real after their strong start to the season. Then they rose from the ashes winning nine consecutive matches and qualified for the finals. Now they've ended the season with a home loss against an interstate team ranked below them. Much has been made of Carlton's run of 9 wins in the final 10 games leading into September but Sydney also went on an impressive run of 6 wins in 7 games that also allowed them to clinch a finals spot. Both team's seasons have played out in a similar way where they appeared gone at the midway point and then went on an impressive winning streak to secure a spot in the finals.

So it's not really clear one way or another whether Carlton are primed for a finals run or if they'll fall at the first hurdle. Carlton only played Sydney once this year in round 11 and the Swans walked away with the win that day despite terrible form at the time. I don't feel confident tipping either team in this upcoming elimination final because I genuinely think it's pretty close to a 50/50 with all the available evidence. Having said all that, I don't think it's unfair to suggest an elimination final loss would be less than what was expected of Carlton prior to the GWS loss.

What were the betting odds just out of interest?

I think the Blues were paying about $1.70 and the Giants were $2.20 last time I checked.

 

[Arr0w]

Both can be true. The six consecutive losses did suggest the predicted drop for Carlton was real after their strong start to the season. Then they rose from the ashes winning nine consecutive matches and qualified for the finals.

So "it's an emphatic yes" now becomes situational, one that didn't encompass the ebbs and flow of an entire season

Now they've ended the season with a home loss against an interstate team ranked below them. Much has been made of Carlton's run of 9 wins in the final 10 games leading into September but Sydney also went on an impressive run of 6 wins in 7 games that also allowed them to clinch a finals spot. Both team's seasons have played out in a similar way where they appeared gone at the midway point and then went on an impressive winning streak to secure a spot in the finals.

The thread has nothing to do with the form or fortunes of any other team

So it's not really clear one way or another whether Carlton are primed for a finals run or if they'll fall at the first hurdle.

So it's clear that it wasn't emphatic

Carlton only played Sydney once this year in round 11 and the Swans walked away with the win that day despite terrible form at the time. I don't feel confident tipping either team in this upcoming elimination final because I genuinely think it's pretty close to a 50/50 with all the available evidence. Having said all that, I don't think it's unfair to suggest an elimination final loss would be less than what was expected of Carlton prior to the GWS loss.

All interesting opinions, but even if we lose, the end result suggests we haven't dropped away, it just confirms what many predicted, that we would win 13-15 games and make the bottom half of the 8

 

[Sqotty from office works]

All interesting opinions, but even if we lose,
[/QUOTE]
IF we lose, it will drive the club insane and drive us towards 3 or 4 premierships.
Which is a good thing.

 

[bourbons]

I think the Blues were paying about $1.70 and the Giants were $2.20 last time I checked.

Massive upset there lol