Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[The Feeder Club]

What? You're quite sensitive on that thing. It wasn't quiet by the way, it was saying what it actually spoke to. If you think that's wrong tell me how.

When I've got more time and opportunity maybe I'll look up my average age/win ratio stats for you.

Further to that, you say he's not a "premiership coach" (hmmmm what's the stat for that? premierships?). Should we be more worried about that if we had a more typical profile of a premiership list?

Jesus how many times do I have to tell you? There is a strong statistical association between failing to make a prelim in your first five years as a senior coach, and failing to ever win a flag. Therefore, if he doesn't make a prelim this year, it is extremely likely, statistically, that he will never win a flag. It's that easy.

Now for the umpteenth time, show a single stronger statistical association of your own. We can then compare your explanatory variable with mine and see which is better, statistically. I look forward to it. I actually hope you do come up with a better one, it will be interesting. This "your stats are crap, but I have nothing better" is not interesting, it's you being a nitwit.

 

[mattis117]

You must be so busy patrolling every thread looking to disagree with anyone that says anything negative about the club, and particularly mumbles, that you didn't even read this discussion .Are you on the payroll or something?
The discussion was that any new coach would take 3-5 years to stamp their brand on the team, which is patently wrong. I have already posted quantitative and qualitative data that seem evidence to me he hasn't got what it takes to be a premiership coach. What have you got? Your basic starting premise in every thread is that the club is always right and whatever they do you'll back them in. Apart from that, what single thing gives you confidence he's anything above an average coach? Which club would chase him to take over from their current coach?

I actually didn't disagree in the sense that I didn't make an argument in favour of JL, I only pointed that your argument is ludicrous.
My position is that I am neither for or against at this time. There is enough doubt in my mind to make a call either way.
I think we will know by mid 2024.

 

[The Feeder Club]

I actually didn't disagree in the sense that I didn't make an argument in favour of JL, I only pointed that your argument is ludicrous.
My position is that I am neither for or against at this time. There is enough doubt

Fair enough, I must have you confused with someone else that goes around using the disagree emoji to numerous posts made against the club and coach. I'm not sure what part of my argument is ludicrous though, again I posted facts - which one's are wrong?

 

[mattis117]

Fair enough, I must have you confused with someone else that goes around using the disagree emoji to numerous posts made against the club and coach. I'm not sure what part of my argument is ludicrous though, again I posted facts - which one's are wrong?

Putting McRae and Kingsley on a pedestal as if it was all them. They have done great work, but they didn't take over a rebuilding list, sure, both of them had a down year previously, but the fact remains they were experienced lists. McRae also had the fortune of being gifted an incredibly talented half back in Daicos.
I personally think Collingwood lucked their way to a flag. Everything fell into place perfectly for them and they are the most looked after club in the AFL.
IMO GWS were playing better last year, but Collingwood has so many small advantages that accumulate to help them get over the line.

This list of Freo looks primed for a tilt from next year. It is too early to make a call on JL. We aren't going to miss our window by waiting another season for more information. The fact we made a semi in 2022 gives JL the credits to be backed in for now.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Putting McRae and Kingsley on a pedestal as if it was all them. They have done great work, but they didn't take over a rebuilding list, sure, both of them had a down year previously, but the fact remains they were experienced lists. McRae also had the fortune of being gifted an incredibly talented half back in Daicos.
I personally think Collingwood lucked their way to a flag. Everything fell into place perfectly for them and they are the most looked after club in the AFL.
IMO GWS were playing better last year, but Collingwood has so many small advantages that accumulate to help them get over the line.

This list of Freo looks primed for a tilt from next year. It is too early to make a call on JL. We aren't going to miss our window by waiting another season for more information. The fact we made a semi in 2022 gives JL the credits to be backed in for now.

But none of that was the argument. The argument was it would take any coach taking over at Freo 3-5 years to achieve anything. I don't agree, there are numerous examples of coaches making huge gains in their first year like the ones I quoted.

No one (as far as I know) is suggesting we should win a flag this year. Who's the best coach in history - whoever it is wouldn't win us a flag this year. But this is his fifth year. It's enough time to show if he has what it takes.

Five years is not too early to make the call. No one was calling for his head in the first three years were they? He's had a good run, and this should be his last year unless there is massive progress.

 

[Hamann188]

But none of that was the argument. The argument was it would take any coach taking over at Freo 3-5 years to achieve anything. I don't agree, there are numerous examples of coaches making huge gains in their first year like the ones I quoted.

No one (as far as I know) is suggesting we should win a flag this year. Who's the best coach in history - whoever it is wouldn't win us a flag this year. But this is his fifth year. It's enough time to show if he has what it takes.

Five years is not too early to make the call. No one was calling for his head in the first three years were they? He's had a good run, and this should be his last year unless there is massive progress.

I'm too thick to disagree with your argument mate, so who is a better available coach to take over for J Lo if we sack him?

 

[King Huskii]

I'm too thick to disagree with your argument mate, so who is a better available coach to take over for J Lo if we sack him?

Thats the million dollar question that he doesn't know

 

[poshman]

I'm too thick to disagree with your argument mate, so who is a better available coach to take over for J Lo if we sack him?

If JL isn't up to it we move him on and go into over drive on the search. I haven't seen your scenario work in any business situation, I don't think it would work at our club either, it is fear based.

How do we rate JL if he finishes this season? One winning season and one finals win in five seasons? I am sure we could find someone with at least those credentials.

I would ask Leppitsch - he had a bad run at the lions and has been at richmond through their success as the forwards coach and again at collingwood as Head of Strategy.

 

[King Huskii]

If JL isn't up to it we move him on and go into over drive on the search. I haven't seen your scenario work in any business situation, I don't think it would work at our club either, it is fear based.

How do we rate JL if he finishes this season? One winning season and one finals win in five seasons? I am sure we could find someone with at least those credentials.

I would ask Leppitsch - he had a bad run at the lions and has been at richmond through their success as the forwards coach and again at collingwood as Head of Strategy.

And he's better than JLO? Lions sacked him for a reason

 

[The Round House Drunk]

My two cents…

If we win fewer games than we did last year and play stodgy football - easy decision, he should go.

If we win around the same amount as last year (or better) and he has embedded a more attacking game plan, he gets an extension.

It will be a difficult decision if we drop a little in terms of wins (between say, 6-9 wins) but he’s committed to a more attacking game plan.

I don’t think we’ll get to 10+ wins with the stodgy game plan, so i didn’t list that as a possible eventuality.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Thats the million dollar question that he doesn't know

This is irrelevant, of course he doesnt know, doesnt stop him having an opinion on JL. I'm unsold either way but surely after 5 years it's reasonable for the reasons stated to have the opinion on JL isnt it.

 

[poshman]

And he's better than JLO? Lions sacked him for a reason

Yes he got sacked. He then was a key part at Richmond and was brought into head of strategy at last seasons premier. I don't mind someone failing in a role and then going on to be a success. I was asked for an example and provided one. You are targeting one part of his resume and ignoring the last 7 years.

 

[The Feeder Club]

I'm too thick to disagree with your argument mate, so who is a better available coach to take over for J Lo if we sack him?

I know you're trying to troll me but whatever, it is a legitimate question. It's still a secondary question though, because if the answer to the primary question is the current bloke isn't going to make it, there is no point keeping him on - there's plenty of untapped potential out there. It's akin to a player, if you know he's not going to make it you delist him, and invest in the untried draft pick you have identified as talent to be better.
I don't know with certainty who's 1. available and 2. wants to coach us but I would be pretty certain we won't get a Chris Scott. It's likely to be an experienced assistant. Nothing wrong with that. Chris Scott himself was once an experienced assistant

 

[Hamann188]

Yes he got sacked. He then was a key part at Richmond and was brought into head of strategy at last seasons premier. I don't mind someone failing in a role and then going on to be a success. I was asked for an example and provided one. You are targeting one part of his resume and ignoring the last 7 years.

I'm a bit foggy on the timeline, was J Lo assistant coach at the Eagle in 2018? Or was he at the Collywobbles by then?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I might be ignorant but like surely taking over this list with where it's at would be the stuff of dreams for a first coaching gig. You'd think everyone with senior coaching ambitions would be keen but maybe I really underestimate how unappealing we are

 

[King Huskii]

Yes he got sacked. He then was a key part at Richmond and was brought into head of strategy at last seasons premier. I don't mind someone failing in a role and then going on to be a success. I was asked for an example and provided one. You are targeting one part of his resume and ignoring the last 7 years.

You put his name forward. JLo has done as thorough apprenticeship as Lepich if not better. I don't think JLo is a master coach but if we were to sack him I'd prefer a coach who knows how to get clubs to and win finals otherwise we are kidding ourselves

 

[Hamann188]

I know you're trying to troll me but whatever, it is a legitimate question. It's still a secondary question though, because if the answer to the primary question is the current bloke isn't going to make it, there is no point keeping him on - there's plenty of untapped potential out there. It's akin to a player, if you know he's not going to make it you delist him, and invest in the untried draft pick you have identified as talent to be better.
I don't know with certainty who's 1. available and 2. wants to coach us but I would be pretty certain we won't get a Chris Scott. It's likely to be an experienced assistant. Nothing wrong with that. Chris Scott himself was once an experienced assistant

Man, I'm not trying to troll you. I have no problem with anybody having an opinion so long as they aren't trying to force their opinion down mine, or anybody's throats by being patronising or condescending.

All I wanted to say was that we all appreciate the effort you have gone to to prove that J Lo isn't the man for the job. Going by all the proof you've provided you must be correct, as I said, I'm not smart enough to disagree.

But just saying this guy over here is not the right guy for the job without offering a viable alternative just isn't helpful.

 

[poshman]

You put his name forward. JLo has dine as thorough apprenticeship as Lepich if not better. I don't think JLo is a master coach but if we were to sack him I'd prefer a coach who knows how to get clubs to and win finals otherwise we are kidding ourselves

Longmuirs apprenticeship was solid, it was not at the level of Leppitsch. That is fine. The question was asked about who we could get and I gave a name that has been kicking goals for the last 7 years.

As Snuff mentioned with our list we should get a lot of candidates who want a senior gig. On top of that we are financially sound/strong. Which isn't the case for every club.

Repeating what I said earlier, in all my business experience dealing with boards, owners, C level execs. The strategy of keeping someone because we don't know who else we could get has not worked once. It is a fear based approach that isn't needed in an industry that only has 18 of these roles available at any one time. Add to that our list and finances and we should be bold in our recruiting. We don't need to behave like a meek, hand me down, oliver twist, please can I have more sir, club. There is a fantastic opportunity with some of the best young players in the league, great finances and resources. I am simply stating, the imperative is for us to act like it.

The last time we did, it lead to our greatest period of success.

 

[Rhufus]

Just watch Luke Ryan kicking out on the weekend against Port. Port manned up the short options, every single player in our D50 was standing rooted to the ground like a granite rock, no one was moving, someone pointed to Darcy who was stationed, standing, 55m away and up went the 55 m bomb to the contested possession, Port roved it and send it flying back. Same old same old, again and again.

Had a whole summer to work on it, everyone on BF can see it but somehow they still do it.

There are multitudes of similar examples, (kicking long to Sonny in a one on one, dobbing it to the shortest player on our list on his head), no overlap run out of the backline, everyone sucking into the ball leaving Port unattended on the outside etc etc. How many years do we have to wait to fix some of this basic stuff up? You can train this stuff with 17 yr olds - sure they may not be able to execute but you could observe at least the intent.

I dont hate JLo, theres no doubt in my mind he a right decent sort of bloke and has done so much right in and around the club. Unfortunately, when it appears your only weakness is actually coaching a consistent attacking game plan, thats a pretty major flaw.

Hope lives eternal, there was that magic 20 minutes against Brisbane where we went mental, choosing the third of two options, handballing and playing on like the Prince of Pockets on steroids and it appeared the coaches had actually instructed them to do something, anything that was different to the staid ball movement of the past. It was of course a clusterpuck and we lost handsomely but I came away thinking maybe he can do this thing.

Yep, last week was only a scratchie, yep we`re young, had dozens out, West Coast lost by a 100 to us in a premiership year, yadee yadee dah, I get it, we cant tell for sure if JLo can coach yet. Like most here have said, we should know in about 5 matches time, for sure.

 

[poshman]

I'm a bit foggy on the timeline, was J Lo assistant coach at the Eagle in 2018? Or was he at the Collywobbles by then?

No he left for collingwood to start the 2018 season.

I don't hold that against him. It was still a very solid period of learning in successful clubs.

I am also stating that someone with a record like Leppitsch could be available. And even if he isn't, we have an opportunity to move with confidence given our circumstance, and act like the strong, aspirational club we are.

 

[DocT]

Average age is either a factor in winning or it isn't. Do you have evidence that suggest it isn't a factor?

The stats I've run suggest they're some if the most powerful correlates to W/L. Older teams with avg age above around 24.5 up their win ratio significantly against those under. The bigger the gap the bigger the win ratio.

The question I have with your age analysis is player quality. Generally speaking, if you are a good player, you get to stay on a list. if you are not you get cut. Replacement players tend to be yonger.
If the above is true, then an 'older' list isn't better just because it's older, but because its overall player quality is better.

 

[Hamann188]

Longmuirs apprenticeship was solid, it was not at the level of Leppitsch. That is fine. The question was asked about who we could get and I gave a name that has been kicking goals for the last 7 years.

As Snuff mentioned with our list we should get a lot of candidates who want a senior gig. On top of that we are financially sound/strong. Which isn't the case for every club.

Repeating what I said earlier, in all my business experience dealing with boards, owners, C level execs. The strategy of keeping someone because we don't know who else we could get has not worked once. It is a fear based approach that isn't needed in an industry that only has 18 of these roles available at any one time. Add to that our list and finances and we should be bold in our recruiting. We don't need to behave like a meek, hand me down, oliver twist, please can I have more sir, club. There is a fantastic opportunity with some of the best young players in the league, great finances and resources. I am simply stating, the imperative is for us to act like it.

The last time we did, it lead to our greatest period of success.

Thanks for offering a different name from some of the other ones we have bandied about, it's a fine suggestion.

My only concern is that hiring the next best guy who has a similar (some may argue even slightly less successful) apprentiship just because he isn't Justin Longmuir may not be the ideal plan of action.

With the list we have right now (primed and ready for an attack on the finals for the next 5-10 years) we really do need the next guy to be undoubtedly better.

 

[King Huskii]

Longmuirs apprenticeship was solid, it was not at the level of Leppitsch. That is fine. The question was asked about who we could get and I gave a name that has been kicking goals for the last 7 years.

As Snuff mentioned with our list we should get a lot of candidates who want a senior gig. On top of that we are financially sound/strong. Which isn't the case for every club.

Repeating what I said earlier, in all my business experience dealing with boards, owners, C level execs. The strategy of keeping someone because we don't know who else we could get has not worked once. It is a fear based approach that isn't needed in an industry that only has 18 of these roles available at any one time. Add to that our list and finances and we should be bold in our recruiting. We don't need to behave like a meek, hand me down, oliver twist, please can I have more sir, club. There is a fantastic opportunity with some of the best young players in the league, great finances and resources. I am simply stating, the imperative is for us to act like it.

The last time we did, it lead to our greatest period of success.

Yeah I get that. I only want the best and I doubt lepich would be. I want Scott or someone of that ilk to be head hunted.

 

[poshman]

Thanks for offering a different name from some of the other ones we have bandied about, it's a fine suggestion.

My only concern is that hiring the next best guy who has a similar (some may argue even slightly less successful) apprentiship just because he isn't Justin Longmuir may not be the ideal plan of action.

With the list we have right now (primed and ready for an attack on the finals for the next 5-10 years) we really do need the next guy to be undoubtedly better.

Longmuir assistant at 2 clubs, made finals, and a Grand Final.

Leppitsch was hired after being sacked at Brisbane (which was a basket base at the time), picks hiimself up, part of flags at richmond and then at the pies.

I don't know how someone could argue Longmuir has the better resume.

Having said that, my point is we have nothing to fear on the hiring front. We are a powerful, financially strong club, with some of the best young players in the country and one you could argue will be the best league wide. We also have a top three KPF prospect and two of the best young mids in the league. Add to that a top three developing ruck in the league. If our execs can't market the absolute Shizen out of our situation we need new execs as well.

 

[poshman]

Yeah I get that. I only want the best and I doubt lepich would be. I want Scott or someone of that ilk to be head hunted.

The challenge with that thinking is the word best followed by ilk. One means one person by definition, and if that is Scott then we know that someone not the best won last season.

Ilk is more general and opens up the field.

I will say it again, approaching this based on fear is a fools game. It would be like marrying someone when you are in the prime of your life, financially successful, bright future prospects, because you are afraid you couldn't find someone better. Fools gold.