Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[arsesmart]

I say bring back Gerad Neesham! At least he delivers a game style of attacking and flare - years ahead of his time, this time though he might have the cattle to execute it! We didn’t win many games but gee we had so much flare when he coached.

Or maybe it was the woolen jumpers giving them a footloose and fancy free feel? Bring them back.

 

[The Feeder Club]

I do wonder what it's like to be so selective in the data one uses to make their arguments.
You are clearly aware of the differences in the list profiles, so you're being wilfully and disrespectfully ignorant.
Who the hell tries to make points about who is a good coach and just ignores the most important variable of list age and experience?
No one has buying what you're trying to sell.

You must be so busy patrolling every thread looking to disagree with anyone that says anything negative about the club, and particularly mumbles, that you didn't even read this discussion .Are you on the payroll or something?
The discussion was that any new coach would take 3-5 years to stamp their brand on the team, which is patently wrong. I have already posted quantitative and qualitative data that seem evidence to me he hasn't got what it takes to be a premiership coach. What have you got? Your basic starting premise in every thread is that the club is always right and whatever they do you'll back them in. Apart from that, what single thing gives you confidence he's anything above an average coach? Which club would chase him to take over from their current coach?

 

[freo1]

Or maybe it was the woolen jumpers giving them a footloose and fancy free feel? Bring them back.

Ahh them were the days. Winston, Dhurrks, Willsy, Kiccketty, Clive. Absolute Flare and instinct wrapped in a wooly mummy’s hug

 

[freo1]

You must be so busy patrolling every thread looking to disagree with anyone that says anything negative about the club, and particularly mumbles, that you didn't even read this discussion .Are you on the payroll or something?
The discussion was that any new coach would take 3-5 years to stamp their brand on the team, which is patently wrong. I have already posted quantitative and qualitative data that seem evidence to me he hasn't got what it takes to be a premiership coach. What have you got? Your basic starting premise in every thread is that the club is always right and whatever they do you'll back them in. Apart from that, what single thing gives you confidence he's anything above an average coach? Which club would chase him to take over from their current coach?

Gold! Mic drop

 

[CapitalA]

I've never got those sort of vibes from JL before so I'd be surprised.

... maybe that's what he wants us to think...

The closest thing I can think of is he puts players in bogus positions for team announcement very often.

 

[Docker82]

You must be so busy patrolling every thread looking to disagree with anyone that says anything negative about the club, and particularly mumbles, that you didn't even read this discussion .Are you on the payroll or something?
The discussion was that any new coach would take 3-5 years to stamp their brand on the team, which is patently wrong. I have already posted quantitative and qualitative data that seem evidence to me he hasn't got what it takes to be a premiership coach. What have you got? Your basic starting premise in every thread is that the club is always right and whatever they do you'll back them in. Apart from that, what single thing gives you confidence he's anything above an average coach? Which club would chase him to take over from their current coach?

Tbf I don’t think anyone other than a top 5 coach in the league is specifically chased for a certain position either. Most clubs just sack their coach if it’s not working and hire a new one from a recruitment process.

I agree five years is more than enough for JL to show he’s got it. At this stage I think he’ll be sacked mid-year and we’ll bounce massively in 2025 when a few things that are painfully obvious are implemented.

Also I don’t think I want to use age as an excuse. Outside of Cooper Simpson and Tom Emmett (who’s a mature ager) I don’t think we’ll have that many first or second year players playing this year. Don’t really care what the overall averages say we’re ranked - it’s more about how many really young we have. We won’t have that many so it isn’t an excuse imo.

By the time players hit their third or fourth year they should be able to contribute well at AFL level. It is true that KPPs and rucks take a little bit longer but most players that don’t show they belong by their fourth year won’t make it no matter what their excuse is.

 

[arsesmart]

Also I don’t think I want to use age as an excuse. Outside of Cooper Simpson and Tom Emmett (who’s a mature ager) I don’t think we’ll have that many first or second year players playing this year. Don’t really care what the overall averages say we’re ranked.

Average age is either a factor in winning or it isn't. Do you have evidence that suggest it isn't a factor?

The stats I've run suggest they're some if the most powerful correlates to W/L. Older teams with avg age above around 24.5 up their win ratio significantly against those under. The bigger the gap the bigger the win ratio.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Tbf I don’t think anyone other than a top 5 coach in the league is specifically chased for a certain position either. Most clubs just sack their coach if it’s not working and hire a new one from a recruitment process.

I agree five years is more than enough for JL to show he’s got it. At this stage I think he’ll be sacked mid-year and we’ll bounce massively in 2025 when a few things that are painfully obvious are implemented.

Also I don’t think I want to use age as an excuse. Outside of Cooper Simpson and Tom Emmett (who’s a mature ager) I don’t think we’ll have that many first or second year players playing this year. Don’t really care what the overall averages say we’re ranked - it’s more about how many really young we have. We won’t have that many so it isn’t an excuse imo.

By the time players hit their third or fourth year they should be able to contribute well at AFL level. It is true that KPPs and rucks take a little bit longer but most players that don’t show they belong by their fourth year won’t make it no matter what their excuse is.

Agreed. I not only think five years is enough, I have already shown there's a strong statistical association that shows if you haven't made a prelim in your first five years as coach you won't win a flag. So give him this year to show he can do it and no more.. Let's hope he can for our sakes and if he doesn't, let's hope the guillotine is sharp

 

[arsesmart]

Agreed. I not only think five years is enough, I have already shown there's a strong statistical association that shows if you haven't made a prelim in your first five years as coach you won't win a flag. So give him this year to show he can do it and no more.. Let's hope he can for our sakes and if he doesn't, let's hope the guillotine is sharp

That wasn't a strong statistical association really. There are also many confounding variables that muddy any causal relationship. ie Not always coaching talent, but actions of panicky boards, click bait and antsy supporters ended opportunities to get enough opportunities to win a flag.

 

[The Feeder Club]

That wasn't a strong statistical association really. There are also many confounding variables that muddy any causal relationship. ie Not always coaching talent, but actions of panicky boards, click bait and antsy supporters ended opportunities to get enough opportunities to win a flag.

I'll await stronger data to show a better predictor of a premiership coach (or more accurately, who won't be a premiership coach). Very happy to compare positive and negative predictive values of your data with mine

 

[arsesmart]

I'll await stronger data to show a better predictor of a premiership coach (or more accurately, who won't be a premiership coach). Very happy to compare positive and negative predictive values of your data with mine

Your contention from that (won't mention size) dataset, is if he hasn't won one by now, he doesn't have the ability to, no?

 

[The Feeder Club]

Your contention from that (won't mention size) dataset, is if he hasn't won one by now, he doesn't have the ability to, no?

No

 

[WilloTree]

They came out this year to say age is no longer an excuse. We will see how that goes. Can’t think of many teams in the last 25 years that have had sustained success at such a young age demographic. Obviously there are outliers (baby bombers etc) but the league is a lot closer in quality now, especially the top 12 or so teams so match hardened quality players become critical.

Agree. Even the Baby Bombers if they ran out this year would have 8 teams younger than them.

We have 1.

Interesting side note - Malthouse's Collingwood team that won the Premiership in 2010 were younger than the Baby Bombers.

 

[Joao]

The issues with the age are there to see. It's the reason the same gameplan can be diabolical like against North last year, but can also beat the Dees at the G. The boys just can't do it week in, week out.

Inconsistency is the hallmark of youth in the AFL (and a bunch of other sports).

 

[WilloTree]

Ahh them were the days. Winston, Dhurrks, Willsy, Kiccketty, Clive. Absolute Flare and instinct wrapped in a wooly mummy’s hug

Don't forget the Prince of Pockets!

 

[arsesmart]

No

So it's just "this tends to happen, doesn't matter why"?

 

[King Huskii]

You must be so busy patrolling every thread looking to disagree with anyone that says anything negative about the club, and particularly mumbles, that you didn't even read this discussion .Are you on the payroll or something?
The discussion was that any new coach would take 3-5 years to stamp their brand on the team, which is patently wrong. I have already posted quantitative and qualitative data that seem evidence to me he hasn't got what it takes to be a premiership coach. What have you got? Your basic starting premise in every thread is that the club is always right and whatever they do you'll back them in. Apart from that, what single thing gives you confidence he's anything above an average coach? Which club would chase him to take over from their current coach?

Your negativity towards JLo when you clearly don't know what is going on behind closed doors is outstanding

Lets wait to see them play in the real deal first

 

[The Feeder Club]

So it's just "this tends to happen, doesn't matter why"?

The somewhat astonishing thing is you saw fit to query it when you didn't have a working knowledge of what it showed, as evidenced by your prior post. I'll wait patiently for your more predictive data. As I have previously said, happy to be shown better

 

[WilloTree]

The somewhat astonishing thing is you saw fit to query it when you didn't have a working knowledge of what it showed, as evidenced by your prior post. I'll wait patiently for your more predictive data. As I have previously said, happy to be shown better

Genuine question because I haven't gone back to find the data specifically, but are you referring to your examples of McRea and Kingsley? Or the '5 years to win a flag' theory?

 

[Docker82]

Average age is either a factor in winning or it isn't. Do you have evidence that suggest it isn't a factor?

The stats I've run suggest they're some if the most powerful correlates to W/L. Older teams with avg age above around 24.5 up their win ratio significantly against those under. The bigger the gap the bigger the win ratio.

Average age doesn’t show the break up of players.

Emmett was the only first year player that played last year and he’s a mature ager. We weren’t playing first and second year players on mass like North, West Coast and Hawthorn - I’m sorry but we just weren’t.

Walters was the only player over 30 that played many games last year. Teams with high average ages have 6-7+. I think that not having these veterans in the side rather than actually being young is why we had a low average age tbh.

The vast majority of who played were aged between 22 and 28. That’s either just before prime or prime age. There’s no excuses for those players - None.

 

[Joao]

Average age doesn’t show the break up of players.

Emmett was the only first year player that played last year and he’s a mature ager. We weren’t playing first and second year players on mass like North, West Coast and Hawthorn - I’m sorry but we just weren’t.

Walters was the only player over 30 that played many games last year. Teams with high average ages have 6-7+.

The vast majority of who played were aged between 22 and 28. That’s either just before prime or prime age. There’s no excuses for those players - None.

Have you checked this with actual data? Because I am pretty sure it is not correct for the 22-24 players. Plenty in that age range still aren't that good. Some players are bog ordinary until about 28 (Cam Guthrie comes to mind).

And if you are going to get granular with your stats, did you factor which players are in the 25+ bracket - it's almost none of our best players. Then have a look at better performing teams and who there 25+ players are.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Genuine question because I haven't gone back to find the data specifically, but are you referring to your examples of McRea and Kingsley? Or the '5 years to win a flag' theory?

It isn't five years to win a flag. It is if, in your first coaching gig as an AFL coach, you haven't made a prelim in your first five years you are highly unlikely to win a flag. The negative predictive value is very high. The positive predictive value is not so high. In other words, quite a few coaches make a prelim in their first five years but don't go on to win a flag. But if you don't make one, you're virtually no hope, Hardwick the one exception.
You can argue all you want about confounding factors, but the data is the data. I'm at least trying to present a quantitative and qualitative evidence base for my view that the bloke isn't up to it. For those that think he's up to it, what are your reasons?

 

[Docker82]

Have you checked this with actual data? Because I am pretty sure it is not correct for the 22-24 players. Plenty in that age range still aren't that good. Some players are bog ordinary until about 28 (Cam Guthrie comes to mind).

And if you are going to get granular with your stats, did you factor which players are in the 25+ bracket - it's almost none of our best players. Then have a look at better performing teams and who there 25+ players are.

Cam Guthrie certainly wasn’t bog average until he was 28. He was 100% AFL standard at about 21/22.

Of course players improve from that age until their 26-28ish. That’s how we go from a top eight list to top four in 2-3 years.

I do not believe however age is any excuse for us to finish as low as we did last season. That’s an excuse you can use when half your team was in their first 3-4 seasons but that simply wasn’t the case with Freo.

We’re an excuse first football club and have been for 30 years except for a brief period when Ross Lyon was in charge. That’s got to change otherwise we’ll never be winning a premiership ever.

 

[Joao]

Cam Guthrie certainly wasn’t bog average until he was 28. He was 100% AFL standard at about 21/22.

Of course players improve from that age until their 26-28ish. That’s how we go from a top eight list to top four in 2-3 years.

I do believe however age is any excuse for us to finish as low as we did last season. That’s an excuse you can use when half your team was in their first 3-4 seasons but that simply wasn’t the case with Freo.

Cam Guthrie was B grade, at best until late when he suddenly turned into an A grade mid. For like 2 years and now he's always injured.

I think you are just wrong. On average, a 22yo will not compete week in, week out in the AFL. Also, did you check the 25+ players?

 

[Joao]

So I picked a random game (of a finalist) from round 22 last year. In Port's team they had the following players in the 22-24 age bracket:

Butters, Rozee, Bergman, Duursma, Farrell, Williams, Hayes, McEntee, Evans

So leaving the two stars out of it (because Serong and Bray compare), the others are either plodders or blokes who I am sure would like to think their best football is ahead of them and significantly better than what it has been to date.