Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

[Freomaniac]

If we extend his contract again after making finals once in 5 years that’s the definition of accepting mediocrity.

At some point this club as a whole needs to face the pressure head on and deal with it and perform, both on and off-field. Both Longmuir and Nicks got unworthy contract extensions this year to “alleviate pressure” and both of them ended up missing finals anyways.

This article mentions Carlton and Essendon continually changing coaches, and while I don’t agree with that approach, our approach of prioritising stability for the sake of stability hasn’t worked either. We’ve made finals 1 time in the past 9 years and have only had 2 head coaches in that time. At some point change is needed.

You said we made finals in 1 year out of the last 9.

Yeah its not great. But we missed finals for 6 years in a row from 2016-21. That 6 year period of no finals was one heck of a rebuild. I wished we made finals in 2021. It would make it so much better in the record books making finals in 2021 and 2022.

But thats what happens when you stick with the same 22 to 25 players from 2012-15. I dont have many regrets in those 9 finals we played in from 2012 until 2015. That 2012-15 period is the only period we had a sustained finals run or made finals for at least 2 years in a row.

I have posted this previously. The average coaching period for a dockers coach is 5 years.

Gerard Neesham started us up and was coach for 4 seasons.

Damian Drum lasted 2 and half years.

Chris Connolly Lasted 5 and a half seasons.

Mark Harvey lasted 4 and a half seasons

Ross Lyon lasted 8 seasons.

Justin Longmuir just completed his 5th season.

Laws of Averages said that Justin Longmuir should of been sacked this season.

 

[blue shark]

You said we made finals in 1 year out of the last 9.

Yeah its not great. But we missed finals for 6 years in a row from 2016-21. That 6 year period of no finals was one heck of a rebuild. I wished we made finals in 2021. It would make it so much better in the record books making finals in 2021 and 2022.

But thats what happens when you stick with the same 22 to 25 players from 2012-15. I dont have many regrets in those 9 finals we played in from 2012 until 2015. That 2012-15 period is the only period we had a sustained finals run or made finals for at least 2 years in a row.

I have posted this previously. The average coaching period for a dockers coach is 5 years.

Gerard Neesham started us up and was coach for 4 seasons.

Damian Drum lasted 2 and half years.

Chris Connolly Lasted 5 and a half seasons.

Mark Harvey lasted 4 and a half seasons

Ross Lyon lasted 8 seasons.

Justin Longmuir just completed his 5th season.

Laws of Averages said that Justin Longmuir should have been sacked this season.

You are probably a year early but it’s funny how one minute it’s finals or bust and the next is extenuating circumstances?
Every team doesn’t have their best 22 all year, add more travel than
most and an unbalanced list in age.
Great coaches find a way, rest or rotate players and build depth especially with Freo’s track record of how we end seasons.
We had two breakout players, Treacy and Draper, and two that
could of been better managed in Darcy and Pearce.
Jlo coached like his job was on the line, besides that issue being
addressed, and went with experience unless forced with no other
option.
Guaranteed an outside point of view would be welcomed, and lets
be honest if he was replaced a new coach would have reviewed the
list and made cuts to the deadwood.
The club lacks the experience and class of rival coaching depts and
should be adding more, even an outside consultant at worst.
Many think we will improve with age, less injury, and trade our way
into flag contention.
I liked it better when we were a no excuse football club.

 

[Cesoir]

If we were winning games your analysis would be fine. But we're not. We're a bog average middling team with a rolls royce list.

Sorry Rob but we are not a Rolls Royce list, that is typical supporter over-rating of their own players. Ask most Eagles fans and they think they have a good list, it's just that Simpson had "lost the players".

Have a look at the player profiles for our regular best 23 players on the club website. We have a few elite players, some good players, and then a lot of them are average to below average. Not the worst list around, but more a Kia Rio list than Rolls Royce.

At the moment we don't have more than about a dozen "above average" players on the list - when three of those are injured it begins to look dire. People call for Brodie, Erasmus or Simpson to be given a go (and I think 2 of them should) but all three are below average in every category - not a Rolls Royce amongst them.

I think we are tracking in the right direction, just not a quickly as we'd all like. Depth players are developing in the WAFL, young players will improve with another off-season and the synergy that comes with playing together will improve. We weren't far off this year and I think had we kept either Moose or Cyclone on the field we would have at least played finals.

I am happy to see what Longmuir does this year before getting the pitchfork out, but I think we need to trade in a couple of very good players and at least 3 or 4 of our young players step up into the "above average" category. Then I think we'll give the competition a really good shake.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Sorry Rob but we are not a Rolls Royce list, that is typical supporter over-rating of their own players. Ask most Eagles fans and they think they have a good list, it's just that Simpson had "lost the players".

Have a look at the player profiles for our regular best 23 players on the club website. We have a few elite players, some good players, and then a lot of them are average to below average. Not the worst list around, but more a Kia Rio list than Rolls Royce.

At the moment we don't have more than about a dozen "above average" players on the list - when three of those are injured it begins to look dire. People call for Brodie, Erasmus or Simpson to be given a go (and I think 2 of them should) but all three are below average in every category - not a Rolls Royce amongst them.

I think we are tracking in the right direction, just not a quickly as we'd all like. Depth players are developing in the WAFL, young players will improve with another off-season and the synergy that comes with playing together will improve. We weren't far off this year and I think had we kept either Moose or Cyclone on the field we would have at least played finals.

I am happy to see what Longmuir does this year before getting the pitchfork out, but I think we need to trade in a couple of very good players and at least 3 or 4 of our young players step up into the "above average" category. Then I think we'll give the competition a really good shake.

Hit the nail on the head I think. A lot of our supporters seem to be judging our current list on what they could be capable of in the future rather than we're they're at now because they are showing genuine glimpses. But even our best players are still a bit off being truly elite (but are definitely tracking that way).

The key as you mentioned is the depth players developing at Peel and playing in finals and a WAFL grand final definitely helps that. It's exciting in a way.

Where the genuine criticism of JL is is the inflexibility of selection at the back end of the season during our injury plagued end of the season. But I think with more confidence in those developing depth players will come with experience and not to mention we had an insane run home without our 3 most important players.

 

[blue shark]

Sorry Rob but we are not a Rolls Royce list, that is typical supporter over-rating of their own players. Ask most Eagles fans and they think they have a good list, it's just that Simpson had "lost the players".

Have a look at the player profiles for our regular best 23 players on the club website. We have a few elite players, some good players, and then a lot of them are average to below average. Not the worst list around, but more a Kia Rio list than Rolls Royce.

At the moment we don't have more than about a dozen "above average" players on the list - when three of those are injured it begins to look dire. People call for Brodie, Erasmus or Simpson to be given a go (and I think 2 of them should) but all three are below average in every category - not a Rolls Royce amongst them.

I think we are tracking in the right direction, just not a quickly as we'd all like. Depth players are developing in the WAFL, young players will improve with another off-season and the synergy that comes with playing together will improve. We weren't far off this year and I think had we kept either Moose or Cyclone on the field we would have at least played finals.

I am happy to see what Longmuir does this year before getting the pitchfork out, but I think we need to trade in a couple of very good players and at least 3 or 4 of our young players step up into the "above average" category. Then I think we'll give the competition a really good shake.

What about the guys who were let go?
You look at Hogan, Lobb and Acres, Meek, the list was actually pretty good
Giving up early on Jesse and letting him go for a pick in the fifties?
That is one of the worst trade in - trade out deals in our history up there with
the Croad fiasco.
More proof is when he refused to play a ruck and then we play Tabs?
Then end of the year Tabs is gone.
Jackson is another questionable role, obviously they have a concept of a plan or
do they?

 

[rubydoomsday]

What about the guys who were let go?
You look at Hogan, Lobb and Acres, Meek, the list was actually pretty good
Giving up early on Jesse and letting him go for a pick in the fifties?
That is one of the worst trade in - trade out deals in our history up there with
the Croad fiasco.
More proof is when he refused to play a ruck and then we play Tabs?
Then end of the year Tabs is gone.
Jackson is another questionable role, obviously they have a concept of a plan or
do they?

we didn't give up on Jesse, he gave up on himself. showed nowhere near the dedication and commitment with us.

i'm glad for him that he's turned it around, delivering on the promise he always showed, it's good to see a troubled young man come good.

but f me, it should've been with us, in his home town. that drama is all on him.

 

[Stinky Lomax]

If we were winning games your analysis would be fine. But we're not. We're a bog average middling team with a rolls royce list.

Your argument in defence of the Longmuir game plan seems to be that we'd be worse if it was adjusted. So the absolute best we could have hoped for this year - with any game plan - was 10th. With another one we'd have finished lower. Sorry dude, I just can't agree with that.

It does seem 95% likely that JL will coach in round 1 next season, but he'd better ****ing work it out quickly. If we're 3 and 5 or even 4 and 4 after 8 rounds he's probably going to be a dead man walking.

With all due respect, you have misread that post completely.

Rolls Royce, yeh not quite, there are a number of holes in our list that desperately needs filling. Speed & depth in the middle, ruck depth is not there yet, at least 1 dangerous small forward, but preferably 2, we have 1 average wingman & no firm option on the other side, our KPF are all 22 or younger & Sturt is only just finding his feet.

That’s this season, there may be players on our list that will fill a couple of those spots that either weren’t available due to injury or aren’t quite there yet.

We do play similar to Hawthorn who have been revolutionary this season, the obvious difference is their 3 small forwards kicked over 20 goals on the season, not one of ours did. Our tall forwards are far better but don’t have the same support when it hits the ground, that’s why we protect the ball more coming out of stoppage than other teams.

That will likely be adjusted depending on who we bring in, but my opinion it doesn’t really need to be.

People really do overrate this list as it sits currently. We are still relatively young which is a reason, not an excuse. I’ll keep repeating if this team doesn’t perform next year then he should be gone, but we were not far off it this season & pretty much where a lot of punters thought we’d be.

The results this season were definitely not a reason to sack him & start again with an unknown.

 

[Dockeroo]

Every list apart from about 4 or 5 in the AFL is pretty decent. The comp is specifically manipulated to ensure talent is evenly divided across the teams, and the AFL are very successful in this aim. A handful of teams have below-par performance over a few years like west coast and north but when you look at Fremantle over a decade or even over the 5 year period JL is there we shouldn’t be languishing out of finals nearly all that time. In specific years, teams can be quite different in expression of their talent levels but over a longer period it tends to even out and everyone gets a shot at elite talent and good performance over a 5 or 6 year period, a long time in AFL footy.

What separates AFL teams is how talent is identified (we do quite well here compared to league average) how players are developed (I’d say we are reasonably good at this), salary cap management (seem to be above league average here too), culture of the club (this has been an issue in the past but is improving I reckon, difficult to say for sure), our gameplan (big question mark over this), our head coach and coaches in general and their ability to motivate the players (also jury very much out on this), our off field management of the club at executive level (pretty good compared to most other clubs I think), our fans and financial power (also pretty good compared to most other clubs, the likes of GWS fall short in this category and it hurts them a lot, they have no fans to roar them home in tight games like sat night).
Talent is pretty even. Its the variables listed that separate teams in AFL.

Over a period of a few years most teams get a shot at finals.
To win the flag you need to be probably top 4 in all the variables mentioned above.
Fremantle aren’t going to jag a flag with an average coach. In fact, it probably needs to be one of the great coaches of the modern era to win a premiership with the Fremantle dockers. That because there is an extra mental hurdle we have to overcome of 30 years of poor historical performance that other big sides don’t need to worry about. The comp is therefore far too even to think we will jag one with an ultra-talented list that compensates for an ok coach.

 

[Dockeroo]

What about the guys who were let go?
You look at Hogan, Lobb and Acres, Meek, the list was actually pretty good
Giving up early on Jesse and letting him go for a pick in the fifties?
That is one of the worst trade in - trade out deals in our history up there with
the Croad fiasco.
More proof is when he refused to play a ruck and then we play Tabs?
Then end of the year Tabs is gone.
Jackson is another questionable role, obviously they have a concept of a plan or
do they?

Why we had to give up hogan for a pick in the 50s is still a mystery to me.
Yeah he didn’t work out but he wasn’t THAT bad here. Surely the salvage value was at least pick 25 or something? I mean, only getting pick 53 was the ultimate kick in the nuts to add insult to injury.

 

[Cesoir]

What about the guys who were let go?
You look at Hogan, Lobb and Acres, Meek, the list was actually pretty good
Giving up early on Jesse and letting him go for a pick in the fifties?
That is one of the worst trade in - trade out deals in our history up there with
the Croad fiasco.
More proof is when he refused to play a ruck and then we play Tabs?
Then end of the year Tabs is gone.
Jackson is another questionable role, obviously they have a concept of a plan or
do they?

Yeah, I wasn't commenting about past mistakes - plenty of others happy to flog that horse - and I'm still undecided on Longmuir. I was responding to Rob who believes that we have a Rolls Royce list. I think we have an average list with loads of potential to become a great list.

Exciting times ahead!

 

[Purpletown]

Why we had to give up hogan for a pick in the 50s is still a mystery to me.
Yeah he didn’t work out but he wasn’t THAT bad here. Surely the salvage value was at least pick 25 or something? I mean, only getting pick 53 was the ultimate kick in the nuts to add insult to injury.

I think we had to take whatever we could get at the time for Hogan.
From memory he was very damaged goods at that particular stage of his career.
The chances of him turning his career around would have been quite low.

 

[pK75]

Yeah, I wasn't commenting about past mistakes - plenty of others happy to flog that horse - and I'm still undecided on Longmuir. I was responding to Rob who believes that we have a Rolls Royce list. I think we have an average list with loads of potential to become a great list.

Exciting times ahead!

Our best 23 is top 4, the issue is our 30-44 players are no where near AFL ready, which we saw in the last 3 games.
The gap between Darcy and Reidy/Knobel is massive. As is the gap between Pearce and Draper, Draper had a breakout year but is far more suited to the Cox/Ryan roles than the FB role Pearce occupies, underdone Cox is barely better than Draper. McDonald was supposed to be the mature aged depth but he was also unavailable.
Likewise up forward, the gap between Treacy and Voss/Tabs is huge.
When you remove 3xA graders in Pearce, Darcy and Treacy and replace them with C-D graders in Draper, Reidy and Voss, it’s going to impact performance.
Likewise on the wing I had Sharp, Nod and Johnson as our first choice at the start of the year. We ended up with JOM and Banfield, both are C graders at best in that role and Johnson failed to make the role his (not really surprising as he spent all summer in the centre square).

 

[mattis117]

If we were winning games your analysis would be fine. But we're not. We're a bog average middling team with a rolls royce list.

Your argument in defence of the Longmuir game plan seems to be that we'd be worse if it was adjusted. So the absolute best we could have hoped for this year - with any game plan - was 10th. With another one we'd have finished lower. Sorry dude, I just can't agree with that.

It does seem 95% likely that JL will coach in round 1 next season, but he'd better ****ing work it out quickly. If we're 3 and 5 or even 4 and 4 after 8 rounds he's probably going to be a dead man walking.

That's a load of crap. Our percentage indicates we deserved to play finals and circumstance went against us.

Pretty sure everyone is 100% agreement that it's finals or bust for JL next season. Saying we're a middling team is dumb. Just observing the final outcome and dismissing everything that lead to it is not intelligent analysis of the situation.

 

[Rob]

That's a load of crap. Our percentage indicates we deserved to play finals and circumstance went against us.

Pretty sure everyone is 100% agreement that it's finals or bust for JL next season. Saying we're a middling team is dumb. Just observing the final outcome and dismissing everything that lead to it is not intelligent analysis of the situation.

Why did circumstances go against us though? You can't just say it was bad luck.

Go back and have a look at the last 5 minutes of the Collingwood game. That's what we're capable of if we throw our usual gameplan out the window.

 

[Wigarus]

Why did circumstances go against us though? You can't just say it was bad luck.

Go back and have a look at the last 5 minutes of the Collingwood game. That's what we're capable of if we throw our usual gameplan out the window.

It's also dumb to say our percentage indicates we deserved to play finals.

It's 'a load of crap' lol


Our percentage looks ok because we had big wins against bottom-of-the-ladder teams, thats all it shows. Our performance against other potential finalists tells the real story.


Saying the Dockers are a middling team is being generous.

 

[blue shark]

I think we had to take whatever we could get at the time for Hogan.
From memory he was very damaged goods at that particular stage of his career.
The chances of him turning his career around would have been quite low.

Or we could have let him rot at Peel until he saw the light maybe?
RL did exactly that with Walters.
At worst they could of turned him into a defender like Tarrant.

 

[chaosball32]

Sorry Rob but we are not a Rolls Royce list, that is typical supporter over-rating of their own players. Ask most Eagles fans and they think they have a good list, it's just that Simpson had "lost the players".

A lot of Eagles fans are casuals who know SFA about footy so this isn’t surprising.

I wouldn’t say we have a Rolls Royce list, our bottom 6-10 players have been letting us down all year, but we have more then enough talent where missing finals every year has become unacceptable.

5 in the All-Australian squad + an additional 4 in the 22under22 + Pearce who was in All-Australian form before his injury. That’s 10 players in your best 22 who are considered to be amongst the very best in the competition.

 

[chaosball32]

Saying we're a middling team is dumb. Just observing the final outcome and dismissing everything that lead to it is not intelligent analysis of the situation.

We’ve made finals 1 time in the past 9 years and have finished in that 10th-16th range 8 times in the past 9 years. We are the definition of a middling team.

Sure, final results aren’t the be all and end all, but to imply final results don’t matter is even less intelligent analysis.

You gotta be in it to win it, and we are consistently not in it.

 

[blue shark]

A lot of Eagles fans are casuals who know SFA about footy so this isn’t surprising.

I wouldn’t say we have a Rolls Royce list, our bottom 6-10 players have been letting us down all year, but we have more then enough talent where missing finals every year has become unacceptable.

5 in the All-Australian squad + an additional 4 in the 22under22 + Pearce who was in All-Australian form before his injury. That’s 10 players in your best 22 who are considered to be amongst the very best in the competition.

When you look at first round picks we are pretty much stacked.
Then we have another two wasting away at Peel.
Talent is not the problem, it’s purely a coaching issue and we are a
minnow in the coaching box.
Then you open Big Footy and another one is gone.
Should be on the front foot with the changes, but usual Freo it’s all about the
Trades.

 

[vidwhal]

Every list apart from about 4 or 5 in the AFL is pretty decent. The comp is specifically manipulated to ensure talent is evenly divided across the teams, and the AFL are very successful in this aim. A handful of teams have below-par performance over a few years like west coast and north but when you look at Fremantle over a decade or even over the 5 year period JL is there we shouldn’t be languishing out of finals nearly all that time. In specific years, teams can be quite different in expression of their talent levels but over a longer period it tends to even out and everyone gets a shot at elite talent and good performance over a 5 or 6 year period, a long time in AFL footy.

What separates AFL teams is how talent is identified (we do quite well here compared to league average) how players are developed (I’d say we are reasonably good at this), salary cap management (seem to be above league average here too), culture of the club (this has been an issue in the past but is improving I reckon, difficult to say for sure), our gameplan (big question mark over this), our head coach and coaches in general and their ability to motivate the players (also jury very much out on this), our off field management of the club at executive level (pretty good compared to most other clubs I think), our fans and financial power (also pretty good compared to most other clubs, the likes of GWS fall short in this category and it hurts them a lot, they have no fans to roar them home in tight games like sat night).
Talent is pretty even. Its the variables listed that separate teams in AFL.

Over a period of a few years most teams get a shot at finals.
To win the flag you need to be probably top 4 in all the variables mentioned above.
Fremantle aren’t going to jag a flag with an average coach. In fact, it probably needs to be one of the great coaches of the modern era to win a premiership with the Fremantle dockers. That because there is an extra mental hurdle we have to overcome of 30 years of poor historical performance that other big sides don’t need to worry about. The comp is therefore far too even to think we will jag one with an ultra-talented list that compensates for an ok coach.

I reckon it's injuries that is the number 1 impact to a teams chances.

 

[eastfreo75]

You said we made finals in 1 year out of the last 9.

Yeah its not great. But we missed finals for 6 years in a row from 2016-21. That 6 year period of no finals was one heck of a rebuild. I wished we made finals in 2021. It would make it so much better in the record books making finals in 2021 and 2022.

But thats what happens when you stick with the same 22 to 25 players from 2012-15. I dont have many regrets in those 9 finals we played in from 2012 until 2015. That 2012-15 period is the only period we had a sustained finals run or made finals for at least 2 years in a row.

I have posted this previously. The average coaching period for a dockers coach is 5 years.

Gerard Neesham started us up and was coach for 4 seasons.

Damian Drum lasted 2 and half years.

Chris Connolly Lasted 5 and a half seasons.

Mark Harvey lasted 4 and a half seasons

Ross Lyon lasted 8 seasons.

Justin Longmuir just completed his 5th season.

Laws of Averages said that Justin Longmuir should of been sacked this season.

Past mark is getting to the preliminary final.

5 years is enough of time and especially when a lot of the list turnover was done before he come.

Looking at the lack of success, Fremantle has given coaches at least 4 years except Drum.