Coach Justin Longmuir

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DocT said:
I agree with your enthusiasm.
I suspect the 0/2 vs 2/0 is statistically meaningful and the stats exist - I just don't know how to get them. I feel confident that statistically the majority of teams would miss the 8 from 0/2.
But you don't need stats to know that virtually every season 8 points is definitely the difference between in and out of the 8, I would guess it is often up to 4 places on the ladder.
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Youre right Doc.
Checked the last 3 seasons
2-0 , 11/16 play finals
0-2 , 4/17 play finals
If youre 2-0 you need to win 10 out of remaining 21 (48%) for for a 12 win shot at finals,
0-2 and you need 12 out of the 21 (57%)
So...lose the first two and its uphill all the way, you had better win the next three to get back into it.
No more slow starts!
 
oldgoat said:
Youre right Doc.
Checked the last 3 seasons
2-0 , 11/16 play finals
0-2 , 4/17 play finals
If youre 2-0 you need to win 10 out of remaining 21 (48%) for for a 12 win shot at finals,
0-2 and you need 12 out of the 21 (57%)
So...lose the first two and its uphill all the way, you had better win the next three to get back into it.
No more slow starts!
Click to expand...

And we get Brisbane with our first game after they get a run under their belt. The AFL grand finalists.
 

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Docker82 said:
He outcoached himself if that’s possible imo.

Sh**e game plan that didn’t suit the team at all. People forget we kicked the last three goals of that game - once we took the game on because we had no choice we outplayed North Melbourne completely.

The odd performance like that along with missing finals should see Longmuir sacked. If it’s obvious that’s how it’s tracking I’d genuinely support doing it before the bye. Enough is enough.
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They didn’t take the game on because they had no choice, that was the game plan from the start but the players didn’t implement it consistently. Why?
Probably because it is a young side which is, like all young sides, inconsistent.

Take a look around the league, young sides showing inconsistent form is the norm, especially in games.
Dockeroo said:
Unfortunately pro sport is brutally ruthless and quite frankly - we need one of the best coaches of all time in our corner to even have a chance of winning a flag. Most other sides have competitive advantages that outweigh ours. Over a long period of time regression to the mean dictates that we are not going to build an outlier list that is so much more talented than everyone else that even mark neeld or Damian Drums grannies would win a flag with them.
That’s not going to happen, despite how good David walls has been.
We need an outstanding coach to win the flag. Someone who is constantly ahead or the game and the rest of the comp. Just being good as a coach, probably isn’t good enough.
Being less than good is clearly not going to do the job.
These people who say JL gets a free pass in 2024 because we are “young” are overlooking the fact that if he’s just a 7/10 coach, that still won’t do when the players are old enough and ready.
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We have no idea how good a coach he is yet. He’s overachieved taking the team to 5th in 2022, and probably was on the mark last year considering the team and experience lost.

And it is not true you need to be a genius coach to win a flag. Look at Simpson, look at Goodwin.

Ok, if you want to have a dynasty sure, but good luck trying to work out who that is. Hardwick hardly looked like a genius until his core group were experienced pros, there were people calling for his head.

Clarkson had poor years then a major outlier when he revolutionised the game, then regressed until he had an experienced group of guns.

I have every faith in Longmuir, I expect by the end of his career at Fremantle a few people here will look pretty silly. He isn’t a miracle worker, but he will take this club to grand finals, and will win one.
 
Jezzitizle said:
I have every faith in Longmuir, I expect by the end of his career at Fremantle a few people here will look pretty silly. He isn’t a miracle worker, but he will take this club to grand finals, and will win one.
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I am also optimistic and I enjoy your optimism.

I am optimistic about the playing group and while I think a good coach is important, the players can make the coach. They don't need to pull Blight or Sheedy style manouveres to win a game. What I am looking forward to next season is a clearer structure to our strategy.
 
Freomaniac said:
Interesting point. Im am not going to go through all clubs....

But Just looking at some clubs for example... But I will mainly focus on Eagles, Crows and Port as Like Freo are sides from a mad and passionate Aussie rules area and all 3 are non victorian and sides we should aim to be as good as them finals wise and flag wise.

Richmond were very violatile when it came to coaching. Richmond won the 1980 flag with Tony Jewell as coach. Tigers sacked him in 1981 for not making finals. They hired club legend Francis Bourke in the end of 1981. Tigers made a grand final in 1982 and lost to carlton. Then Richmond had that barren run from 1983-2012 only making finals only in 1995 and 2001.

West coast has always had stability despite struggles in the early years. Had Ron Alexander in 1987 he was sacked after one year. John Todd was there in 1988 and 1989. got them finals in 1988 was sacked after 1989 with a 7 win season. Eagles then got Ex Bulldogs coach in Mick Malthouse and he was there from 1990-99. Ken Judge took over for 2 years in 2000-01. Then John Worsfold had his eagles coaching era from 2002 until 2013. Then they have had their current coach in Adam Simpson from 2014 onwards.

The South Australian sides have had good stability despite only 3 flags between them since the 1990s.

Crows: Had Graham Cornes from 1991-94. Previous coaching Job was Glenelg from 1985-90. Crows 1st 2 captains were chris McDermott and Tony McGuiness. Both blokes came from Glenelg in the SANFL and have been coached under Cornes too. They made a prelim final in 1993. Cornes was sacked in 1994 for not making finals.

Robert Shaw was crows coach in 1995-6. was sacked after not making finals in those 2 years.

The crows brought in Malcolm Blight at the end of 1996. He coached the crows in 1997-9. Got the crows 2 flags in 1997-8.

Gary Ayres was crows coach in 2000 until mid 2004. Ayres got the crows to finals in 2001-3. 2002 was their best chance of a flag as they made a prelim final.

Neil Craig Becomes interim coach from mid to late 2004. gets the full time Job in 2005. Crows made final in 2005-9. 2005-6 were their best chances of a flag under neil craig. Both years of prelims. But 2006 was their golden chance. Choked a home prelim final to west coast of all sides. Had the crows won that prelim final vs west coast, Crows would of likely won the grand final vs the swans. 2007-9 were 3 elim finals. 2010 and 2011, crows dont make finals and Neil Craig is sacked or quits the job.

2012, Crows get Brenton Sanderson they make a prelim in 2012. Miss out on finals in 2013-4 and Sando pays a price.

2015 Crows hire Phil Walsh. We sadly know why Phil Walsh only lasted 10 or 11 games into the season. Scott Camporeale takes over and crows win an elim final vs the dogs in 2015 and lose to the hawks the next week.

Crows then get Don Pyke. Makes finals in 2016-7, including the grand final in 2017. Doesnt make finals in 2018-9. Pyke gets sacked for not making finals for 2 seasons in a row like Neil craig and Brenton sanderson previously.

Crows hire their current coach in Matthew Nicks in 2020, he is still crows coach as we enter 2024.



Port is an Interesting one.....

John Cahill was Port Adelaide Powers 1st coach. A Port Adelaide Magpies Legend. Previous Coaching stints Was Collingwood in 1983-4, West Adelaide in 1985-7 and Port Magpies in 1988-96. He was the powers 1st coach in 1997-8.

Mark Choco Williams was Ports 2nd coach from 1999-2010. Made finals in 1999, dropped to bottom 4 in 2000. Made finals in 2001-5 in which they got a flag in 2004. Missed out on finals in 2006. Was out of contract at the end of 2007, made a grand final, Choco got a 2 year extension until 2009. Port missed out on finals in 2008-9. Choco got a 2 year extension until 2011. However Port was losing 2-3 million a year So Choco Williams accepted a pay cut from being paid $500,000 a year in 2008-9 to $250,000 a year in 2010 and 2011. He only lasted 15 games into 2010. He was either pushed or had to walk.

then Primus took over mid 2010, got 4 wins. he was given a 2 year deal in 2011-12. Port had a 3 win and 19 loss season including that infamous loss to Gold coast suns, which was the suns 1st ever win in the AFL. Primus last game as Port coach was that infamous loss to GWS. Port board decided not to renew Primus coaching contract. Eddie Hocking takes over the last 4 games of the season.

Then Port hires their current coach at the end of 2012: Ken Hinkley. I dont need to go and ask Port fans opinions about him.
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Tbh the only successful club you researched there was the eagles and from that example it looks to be true that the successful club had coaches for longer.
 
theGav56 said:
I am also optimistic and I enjoy your optimism.

I am optimistic about the playing group and while I think a good coach is important, the players can make the coach. They don't need to pull Blight or Sheedy style manouveres to win a game. What I am looking forward to next season is a clearer structure to our strategy.
Click to expand...
Both coaches early on made grand finals and lost. Which contributed later on
to thinking out of the square.
They also militarised their teams to take no prisoners.
Sheedy after losing to the Hawks which I think at the time was a record GF
loss, changed the game to beat a juggernaut in the rematch.
Then in 1993 the baby Bombers, Daniher the assistant worked out the Blues
clearance plays.
Blight also was ruthless in his assessment of the players, pulled a rabbit out of
the hat moves.
Both were characters, daring and driven, and even when the footy world thought
they were no chance.
Without those Sheedy, Blight, manoeuvres or self belief I just don’t see it happening for us.
Then you look at our brains trust, and it takes all year to put Young into the midfield?
Don’t get me started to what they did with Erasmus when we lack firepower 😩
Plenty of excuses and the players didn’t follow the gameplan, well the above
coaches don’t pull their punches. Playing and coaching premierships is a brutal
game.
 
Young was tracking to be a Tom Stewart level defender, in my view.

Disagree it’s a woeful oversight to play him back, he is very good at it and you can’t have too many good players in any area of the field. Moving him is robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I do rate him as a midfielder, he could be our best one once he settles in - but there is a bit of water to pass under the bridge before we can say whether it was the right move, let alone that it happened too late.
 
Jezzitizle said:
They didn’t take the game on because they had no choice, that was the game plan from the start but the players didn’t implement it consistently. Why?
Probably because it is a young side which is, like all young sides, inconsistent.

Take a look around the league, young sides showing inconsistent form is the norm, especially in games.

We have no idea how good a coach he is yet. He’s overachieved taking the team to 5th in 2022, and probably was on the mark last year considering the team and experience lost.

And it is not true you need to be a genius coach to win a flag. Look at Simpson, look at Goodwin.

Ok, if you want to have a dynasty sure, but good luck trying to work out who that is. Hardwick hardly looked like a genius until his core group were experienced pros, there were people calling for his head.

Clarkson had poor years then a major outlier when he revolutionised the game, then regressed until he had an experienced group of guns.

I have every faith in Longmuir, I expect by the end of his career at Fremantle a few people here will look pretty silly. He isn’t a miracle worker, but he will take this club to grand finals, and will win one.
Click to expand...
The AFL is ruthless. Do nothing but make excuses and you get Freo for the last 30 years (bar the Ross Lyon era).

Being young is not an excuse for playing a sh**e game style when there was clear evidence throughout the year that we played much better when we weren't playing that slow sh**e.

I agree we need a genius coach to win a flag. West Coast had 2-3 priority picks playing for them which we'll never get. Melbourne had a father son or two and top compensation picks. We don't get those advantages.

Longmuir isn't good enough and should've been gone in September. Our club is soft and has been for our entire existence except a brief 2-3 year period. He's had four years - that's plenty of time. The club didn't make excuses for Mark Harvey who like JL only had one good season at the club.
 
Docker82 said:
The AFL is ruthless. Do nothing but make excuses and you get Freo for the last 30 years (bar the Ross Lyon era).

Being young is not an excuse for playing a sh**e game style when there was clear evidence throughout the year that we played much better when we weren't playing that slow sh**e.

I agree we need a genius coach to win a flag. West Coast had 2-3 priority picks playing for them which we'll never get. Melbourne had a father son or two and top compensation picks. We don't get those advantages.

Longmuir isn't good enough and should've been gone in September. Our club is soft and has been for our entire existence except a brief 2-3 year period. He's had four years - that's plenty of time. The club didn't make excuses for Mark Harvey who like JL only had one good season at the club.
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Well, I hope for our sake you are wrong.

We pretty much disagree on every point, so we are just gonna have to wait and see.
 

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Docker82 said:
If I'm right I hope we get rid of JL ASAP.

But I know I'm going early on this. If I'm wrong, Freo is doing well so I hope I'm wrong.
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If Fremantle cut Longmuir, for anything apart from a bad season, and install another rookie coach, then we are in high risk territory.

If he has a reasonable season, a change to another rookie coach extends the rebuild and may risk player retention.

If a better experienced coach is available, no problem.
Jezzitizle said:
Young was tracking to be a Tom Stewart level defender, in my view.

Disagree it’s a woeful oversight to play him back, he is very good at it and you can’t have too many good players in any area of the field. Moving him is robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I do rate him as a midfielder, he could be our best one once he settles in - but there is a bit of water to pass under the bridge before we can say whether it was the right move, let alone that it happened too late.
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Clearly the coach is confident Hughes can replace Young in defence.
 
theGav56 said:
If Fremantle cut Longmuir, for anything apart from a bad season, and install another rookie coach, then we are in high risk territory.

If he has a reasonable season, a change to another rookie coach extends the rebuild and may risk player retention.

If a better experienced coach is available, no problem.

Clearly the coach is confident Hughes can replace Young in defence.
Click to expand...
High risk, high reward or low risk, no reward.

I know which option I'm going with.
 
theGav56 said:
If Fremantle cut Longmuir, for anything apart from a bad season, and install another rookie coach, then we are in high risk territory.

If he has a reasonable season, a change to another rookie coach extends the rebuild and may risk player retention.

If a better experienced coach is available, no problem.

Clearly the coach is confident Hughes can replace Young in defence.
Click to expand...
Maybe Hughes, maybe Aish or Wagner.
 
CapitalA said:
Tbh the only successful club you researched there was the eagles and from that example it looks to be true that the successful club had coaches for longer.
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And to a Lesser degree.... Port Adelaide.... Yes West coast has had not 1, not 2, but 3 coaches that Stayed at the club for 10 years. All 3 got at least 1 flag. Malthouse had his run from 1990-99. made 3 grand finals in 1991, 1992 and 1994. won flags in 1992 and 1994. Johnny Worsfold was eagles head coach from 2002-13. Grand finals in 2005-6 with a flag in 2006. Adam Simpson is the eagles current head coach since 2014. Made a grand final in 2015 and 2018. Wins a flag in 2018.

Port Had Choco Williams who was there from 1999-mid 2010. He had finals in 1999, 2001-5 and 2007. That 2001-5 squad made top 4 in 2001-4. Prelims in 2002-4 and a flag in 2004. they then made another grand final in 2007.

Ken Hinkley is their current coach and been there Since the end of 2012 or Start of 2013. So from 2013-23, Ken Hinkley has given the Port Adelaide footy club mild to moderate success. 3 Prelims in 2014, 2020-21 isnt bad. 5 finals wins in 9 seasons isnt that bad either.

Crows are a Weird one. They never had a coach that lasted 10 seasons. Neil Craig lasted from mid 2004 until mid 2011. They have had 6 coaches that got at least a Prelim final: Cornes (1993), Malcolm blight (1997-8), Gary Ayres (2002), Neil Craig (2005-6), Brenton Sanderson (2012), and Don Pyke (2017)


But I mainly focused on non vic sides but specifically the Eagles, Port and Crows for 2 specific reasons.

1. Eagles are from WA. So a mad Aussie rules state. Crows and Port come from South Australia, also a mad Aussie rules state that hate the Victorians more than the WA people do.

1. Also Specifically what Certain Non Vic sides achieved from 1995-2010. Why that specific timeline? To compare them to Freo and it was when it was 8 finals spots and 16 sides in 16 year span.

Port from 1997-2010 made finals 7 times, made 2 grand finals and won 1 flag in 2004.

Eagles, Crows, Sydney Swans and Brisbane from 1995-2010 all at a bare minimum made finals 8 times in 16 years. All 4 sides at least made 2 grand finals and won 1 flag.

Dockers from 1995-2010 only has got a 2003 elim final loss, 3 finals in 2006 (including that 2006 semi finals win) and 2010 semi final to look back on. Dockers never ever had sustained finals success or made finals for 2 years in a row in that period.
 
Docker82 said:
The AFL is ruthless. Do nothing but make excuses and you get Freo for the last 30 years (bar the Ross Lyon era).

Being young is not an excuse for playing a sh**e game style when there was clear evidence throughout the year that we played much better when we weren't playing that slow sh**e.

I agree we need a genius coach to win a flag. West Coast had 2-3 priority picks playing for them which we'll never get. Melbourne had a father son or two and top compensation picks. We don't get those advantages.

Longmuir isn't good enough and should've been gone in September. Our club is soft and has been for our entire existence except a brief 2-3 year period. He's had four years - that's plenty of time. The club didn't make excuses for Mark Harvey who like JL only had one good season at the club.
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I agree we need someone really good to win the flag.

But a semi successfull and experienced coach like a Ken Hinkley or Brett Ratten or a Don Pyke or Leon Cameron would do some good. Not exactly a flag but a good sustained run of finals for 3 or 4 years in a row will do wonders for this young squad.
 
oldgoat said:
Youre right Doc.
Checked the last 3 seasons
2-0 , 11/16 play finals
0-2 , 4/17 play finals
If youre 2-0 you need to win 10 out of remaining 21 (48%) for for a 12 win shot at finals,
0-2 and you need 12 out of the 21 (57%)
So...lose the first two and its uphill all the way, you had better win the next three to get back into it.
No more slow starts!
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Thx for doing the leg work.
 
Docker82 said:
High risk, high reward or low risk, no reward.

I know which option I'm going with.
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Similar situation as Pies, GWS, I think everyone can agree looking at talent alone
we are in a good position.
Don’t think those clubs miss their old coaches, and if anything they extended the
Coaching talent to spread the load.
It’s obvious we are lacking the formula off the field to be a serious threat.
Top four is the mark for WA teams, and it hasn’t been achieved for nearly a
decade by Freo.
Just in time would start in 2024, with the team bullying and self belief.
Rookie coaches turning the fortunes around in a year, and you can see it right
Before you eyes.
 
theGav56 said:
If Fremantle cut Longmuir, for anything apart from a bad season, and install another rookie coach, then we are in high risk territory.

If he has a reasonable season, a change to another rookie coach extends the rebuild and may risk player retention.

If a better experienced coach is available, no problem.

Clearly the coach is confident Hughes can replace Young in defence.
Click to expand...
Chris Scott comes to mind.

Already been here as an assistant and may need a sea change.
 
I don’t think the Assistant Coaches we’ve surrounded JL have actually been that bad. Well - we might not have 5-6 gun Assistant Coaches but both Carr and Graham have been mentioned as potential senior coaches. Graham has even coached two clubs temporarily at AFL level (and won 100% of those games). I get the feeling Boyd is quite hardly rated in the industry too.

We may not have the very very best but to say we haven’t had highly rated Assistant Coaches at the club would be false.

We should’ve done more to replace Josh Carr though imo. Our midfield kind of sucked last season which was the role he vacated.
 
Freomaniac said:
I agree we need someone really good to win the flag.

But a semi successfull and experienced coach like a Ken Hinkley or Brett Ratten or a Don Pyke or Leon Cameron would do some good. Not exactly a flag but a good sustained run of finals for 3 or 4 years in a row will do wonders for this young squad.
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If GWS had got rid of Leon Cameron a few years earlier they would have won a flag by now. He is the worst option for us.
 
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