- May 28, 2013
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I think this is a fair and reasonable post. I was not us up beat as some and did not put us in the top 4 this year. I think Swans and Hawks are clearly in front of us and Port greater up side in 2015. I thought with Clark coming in the Cats would get 4th but not suprised if Freo also ended up there. At their best they are 4th and 5th. Then throw a blanket over Roos, Tigers, Ess and Crows. 1 of these 4 will miss the 8. Right now - we are as good as any to miss.Last year, I stood in a bar with several North and Bomber mates prior to the Essendon v North Elimination Final sinking a few beers and discussing the game.
Fair to say, fans of each club tend to not have warm and fuzzy feelings about the opposition side, however both had a reasonable amount of respect for, and fear of the opposite.
The permutations of the finals meant the winner was likely to face Geelong the week after, and generalising, both sets of fans believed the winner of the EF was likely to beat Geelong as well (which of course as we know was exactly what happened).
Now why is this relevant? Because like it or lump it, Essendon and North found themselves, due to the obvious terminal weakness of Geelong, with an inside track to catapult themselves into the top four.
Essendon have now with this last weekends loss to Sydney, given up significant leads (31+ pts) three games in a row - the North final was smack bang in the middle of that.
Now, for the sake of being clear, I am NOT in some round about way trying to imply or infer that Essendon are a top four side that simply 'let' North win. Simply stating the facts as they are in order to demonstrate that North are roughly equivalent to a 'good' side. The game was close, Essendon does what it does, North powered over the top and won the game. The week after, they knocked over (in highly predictable fashion) Geelong.
Bravo, I certainly know I'd be pretty stoked if it was us that had made the top 4, but it is undeniable that, as has happened several times in the past, North were considerably weaker than the other top four sides.
The problem with making the top four in this fashion, is that it can artificially inflate the prospects of the side in question. North ARE a good side, I still think they are a fair chance to make the top 4 and would be shocked to see them miss the eight.
There are two generalised assumptions I've seen this offseason that have bemused me a bit. One, that Brisbane were immediately top eight threats, and two, that North were the 'next best' possibly just below Port in the flag race.
Reality is, they were one of a few sides that trailed Haw, Syd and Port into 2015. Teams such as Essendon, Adelaide, Fremantle had every reason to feel just as bouyant as North heading into 2015.
So to bottom line, North a good side. Good enough, with a little improvement, to genuinely challenge the top sides, but they have no reason to be MORE hopeful than several other sides in the league.
I did not buy into the Bris hype or that the Pies would be terrible.
It's early - but by round 8 we will know a lot more. We have Port, Cats in Geelong, Hawks, Ess, Tigers and Freo in WA. Not out of the question to be 1-7 or 2-6. From there is is a big ask just to make finals. We need to pull out finger out or this season will be a write off very quickly.