KA's Dream Team bets

[timcorb]

It seems i didnt wake up early enough to get on board deledio unders, z.clarke overs, grigg overs ect

KA which sites do you usually bet with? At the moment I only use sportsbet and centrebet. I assume you use lux and betstar?

 

[Keystone agony]

KA which sites do you usually bet with? At the moment I only use sportsbet and centrebet. I assume you use lux and betstar?

Mainly centrebet. ive only just signed up with lux for the past 2-3 weeks. lux is extremely important to winning they are a must have. if i didnt have footy all day saturday i cant even imagine how many more.units id be up by. like this week i didnt play and i won heaps. i wouldve won quite a bit today aswell had i been able to bet. i also use IAS they do some ok H2H and individual scores

 

[Keystone agony]

What im probably gonna do in the last 6 rounds is bet bigger on the ones i really like. eg: goodes, rockliff, N.Jones, Gaz are some from this round and Wells ect.

I never wrote down anything really about Travis Cloke, Prestia, Luke ball before odds came out and sort of went over the top and it costed me i think i lost all of them. Gotta keep that ego side of things to one side where its not about showing people i can win lots of bets but win more money.

Im going to be away for next weeks round so i probably wont bet at all.

 

[Butler]

This week:

Garland over 71.5 @1.95 (2U) Sportingbet

A new coach has worked well for Garlands scoring. Melbournes efforts to keep possession for longer across half back has seen Garland pick up a lot more +6's. Has cleared this line in 5 out of his last 6 games with the one failure last week against Geelong and he scored 71 so just missed out.

N.Reiwoldt over 94.5 @1.75 (1U) Sportingbet

Can't see a really good match up for him this week and as long as he is fit, I can see him having a big game.

Stanton under 105.5 @2 (2U) Sportingbet

Stantons two scores against GWS have been 93 and 51. Will get a tag today. His line has just come out with Luxbet and is at 109.5.

Rockliff over Redden @1.85 (3U) Sportsbet

Rockliff showed last week just how good he can score when back in the middle. Still no Moloney which means he will stay in the guts and I'm expecting him win this one quite comfortably.

Hibberd under 90.5 @1.87 (2U) Luxbet

After a ripping start to the year he hasn't passed this line in his last 5 matches.

Heppell over Stanton, Goddard, Treloar @3.75 (1U) Luxbet

I think there is some value in this one. Stanton with the tag and Heppell should continue to reap the rewards of his extra midfield time with Watson out. Goddard is a worry.

Ward over Hibberd, Greene, Melksham @3 (1U) Luxbet

Ward returned to form last week with 108 points. Greene isn't the same DTer he was last year and is averaging just 77 and Melksham averages just 73.

Also had:



Head to head with Deledio. Apologies for not posting the bet, has been a hectic few weekends with me being away and what not. Should be back to normal next weekend.

Round total:
6-0-2 for +8.23U

Will add up the round 16 bets and my total when I get the chance tomorrow.

Good to see you having another good weekend Keystone agony. Have you had a chance to look at that AFL Fantasy Punt? I gave it a go today and I think I'm a fan.

 

[Keystone agony]

Also had:

View attachment 24296

Head to head with Deledio. Apologies for not posting the bet, has been a hectic few weekends with me being away and what not. Should be back to normal next weekend.

Round total:
6-0-2 for +8.23U

Will add up the round 16 bets and my total when I get the chance tomorrow.

Good to see you having another good weekend Keystone agony. Have you had a chance to look at that AFL Fantasy Punt? I gave it a go today and I think I'm a fan.

Im also a fan. However with each person being able to enter as many teams as they like they can pretty much cover each way if they want.

Ive played both the port vs stk game and rich vs freo game.

So id prefer if it was just one team per user.

I think ill target the 26 man squad ones more.

Im also unsure how the prizes work. Like they said top 20% get some earnings yet 295 ppl played the Richmond vs freo game. Top 20% of that is like 60 players but yet only the top 12 got money?

 

[Butler]

Im also a fan. However with each person being able to enter as many teams as they like they can pretty much cover each way if they want.

Ive played both the port vs stk game and rich vs freo game.

So id prefer if it was just one team per user.

I think ill target the 26 man squad ones more.

Im also unsure how the prizes work. Like they said top 20% get some earnings yet 295 ppl played the Richmond vs freo game. Top 20% of that is like 60 players but yet only the top 12 got money?

I think it may have only been like that because it was free this weekend. Next week should be top 20% hopefully.

I would also prefer one team only but they need to boost the prize money somehow. I don't think many people will enter a heap of teams with it being $10 per entry either. Depending on which teams are playing I will probably just enter 1-2.

I'm also keen to give the 26 man squad a go.

 

[Willzzz]

Great work guys!
I've been checking this thread but not necessarily tailing your picks.
I'm a pretty keen AFL Dreamteamer myself, ranked 1,000 this year.
I have agreed with about 70% of your picks. However, I've only taken the really obvious ones like Dal Santo Unders, Nathan Jones Unders.
Might start tailing you guys next week.

 

[Keystone agony]

Results
ROUND 10 (+12.61 units)
ROUND 11 (+9.97 units)
ROUND 12 (-0.13 units)
ROUND 13 (+0.76 units)
ROUND 14 (+8.58 Units)
ROUND 15 (+4.2 Units)
ROUND 16 (+1.64 Units)
ROUND 17 (+14.22 Units)

Overall Total +53.84 Units

 

[Butler]

Updated with round 16 results:
60-2-45 for +28.52U

 

[Butler]

Some early bets placed for the weekend. I don't usually bet on the sportsbet groups but have seen some value this week so will give them a crack.

Douglas over Sloane @1.70 (2U) Betstar

Dangerfield out and Thompson still a big chance to be a late withdrawal should mean Crowley to Sloane. Even if that doesn't happen, I would still back Douglas to win this match up.

Heppell over 94.5 @1.85 (2U) Betstar

Heppell has seen the most reward from Watsons injury. Has spent a lot of time running through the middle and even with the tag last week still cracked the tonne. I don't think Hawthorn will tag him this week.

Johnson over 114.5 @1.85 (2U) Sportsbet

His record when coming back off after time off is massive. Expecting him to go huge this week.


Myers over Smith, Rioli, Ryder, Hibberd, Gunston and Dempsey @9 (1U) Sportsbet

In his last 3 games Myers has scored 93, 98 and 100. Scores like that will put him well in the mix with this group and $9 is way overs.

Tom Mitchell over Hannebery, Jackson, Malceski, Ellis, Parker, Houli, Edwards @5 (1U) Sportsbet

Hannebery is the 2.85 favourite to win this group but I believe he will get tagged this week. Mitchell had a quieter week last round but I'm backing him to bounce back.

Masten over Griffen, Priddis, Kennedy, Cooney, Cox, Libba, Minson @4.50 (1U) Sportsbet

Griffen should probably win this but Selwood is back and may just go to him. Masten is averaging 104, coming off a 134 last week and scored 120 last time he played the Bulldogs.

K.Kornes over Rockliff, Ebert, Boak, Redden, Moloney, Wingard, Leuenburger @5 (1U) Sportsbet

Moloney back is bad signs for the favourite in this group Rockliff. Boak usually recieves the Raines tag and Kornes has a higher DT ceiling than Redden, Moloney, Wingard and Leuenburger. Ebert is the main worry.

SJ winner of sweet 16 DT group @6 (1U) Sportsbet

Basically picking him to be the highest scorer for the round out of the regular DT scorers. Ablett has the tag heavy Carlton to contend with and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a couple of guys go to him over the course of the game. I still think he will score well just probably not as massive as is needed to win this group. Same with Pendlebury and Swan against GWS who love to tag. Swan was left free last time they met but 37 disposals and 5 goals will be hard to forget.

 

[Sparrow047]

really looking into heppell in the trio vs stanton n goddard..

Stanton still recovering from injury and goddard will struggle to find cheap ball against the hawks

 

[Butler]

really looking into heppell in the trio vs stanton n goddard..

Stanton still recovering from injury and goddard will struggle to find cheap ball against the hawks

I did think about this bet but too many unknowns for my liking. Hawthorn usually tag Stanton but I'm not sure who will go to him. If he is let run free then he can easily win that group. Goddard should also be right up there.

Adding bets:

Franklin under 86.5 @1.87 (1U), @1.80 (1U) Luxbet

Coming back from a knee injury, poor form this year and up against Carlisle/Hurley. I think he will struggle to get near this line.

Heppell over Hodge, Lewis, Zaharakis @2.75 (1U) Luxbet

Reason mentioned in my previous lot of bets.

N.Jones under 89.5 @1.87 (1U) Sportingbet

Expecting North to put a tag on him.

 

[Butler]

Bad start to the weekend.

Heppell went missing in the last quarter with just a 7 point last quarter to fall 4 points short of the line. He was also well and truly beaten in the group I had him in with Hawthorn dominating the scoring. Franklin kicked 8 on Carlisle which I wasn't expecting at all and Myers group actually ended up like I said with 87 being the winner. Unfortunately Myers couldn't keep up his form.

Adding:

Ablett under 127.5 @1.76 (2U) @1.87 (2U)

Carrazzo has a very good record against Ablett. MM loves to tag and I wouldn't be surprised to see him run multiple people with Ablett to try and wear him down. I still expect Ablett to score well as he always does but 127 is a huge line for someone getting so much attention.

Edit: Cachia a late in and as the sub makes me think that he will come on at 3qtr time and go to Ablett fresh.

Grimes over Watts, Jones @2.60 (1U) Sportingbet

Grimes has scored two 90's and then 76 last week since his return from injury. Is playing in the middle/wing and has a higher scoring ability than these other two.

Watts up forward is very hit and miss. Has done well against Brisbane and Bulldogs but struggled against Sydney and Geelong (scored just 19). End of the day, he relies on Melbourne to be going ok to score well.

M.Jones is also very hit and miss. Struggled last week with just 44 points. The main worry though.

Sylvia over 81.5 @1.87(1U) Luxbet

It's Sylvia so you can never be too confident but he is seeing plenty of midfield time and I'm expecting this to be an open, high DT scoring sort of game.

 

[Butler]

Much better day so far with 4U on Ablett unders coming through and my N.Jones and Sylvia bets coming through.

Luxbet markets came out with SJ's line at 106.5 so I have gone hard on the overs.

Adding:

Johnson over 106.5 @1.66 (4U) Luxbet

From memory this is my biggest play for the year.

 

[Keystone agony]

Ive only been able to do 4 bets this WE in Thailand and all through luxbet havnt been able to access ias or centrebet.

So ive done 2U Ablett under 127.5 win
2U H.Shaw over 82.5 Win
2U Goldstein over 84.5 Win
2U Harley Bennell under 83.5 Win

I find myself about 7 units up and only bet short because I was away on these. Before going away I wrote this.


S.Thompson unders
Ryder/TBC unders
Stanton overs (wouldnt have got)
Mundy unders
H.Shaw overs
Goldstein overs
NROO unders
Jacobs Unders
Stokes overs (cant remember what he ended up getting)
Hawkins overs
Pods overs
T.Mckenzie unders

I really should've backed myself in with TMAC havnt been able to put these bets on due to times and being out most the time.

 

[Butler]

Coaches are out to get me this weekend. Instead of Sloane getting the tag, Crowley went to Douglas. For the first time in recent history St Kilda tagged SJ but he still at least junked his way up to my 4U line and Grimes tried to tag Wells.

5-0-8 for -4.36U so far for the round

Adding:

K.Cornes over 97.5 @1.87 (2U) Sportingbet

Averaging 107 for the year and should be fresh after a week off.

Rockliff over Redden @2 (1U) Sportingbet

This is a risky bet. Moloney back in the side isn't good news for Rockliff but he is in ripping form. I'm hoping crazy Vossy doesn't waste him away in the forward line.

Jack over Hannebery @1.95 (2U) Sportingbet

Jackson should go to Hannebery who was huge last week but struggles under the tag.

Cox over 87.5 @1.68 (3U) Luxbet

Odds were already smashed but still worth taking imo. Cox has been struggling of late but he will see plenty of time in the middle with no Naitanui.

Has also covered this line 8 out of the last 10 games at Etihad and his last 3 scores at the ground have been 131, 102 and 123. He also averages 124 against the Bulldogs.

Cox over Murphy, Gaff and Wallis @2.35 (1U) @2.10 (2U) Luxbet

Reasons for Cox are as mentioned above. Gaff a good chance to get tagged and Wallis has scored to 59, 64, 45 and 42 since being back in the team.

Relying a lot on Cox but all the stats and research points towards him going well today.

 

[Keystone agony]

Also did that Cox bet unlucky with gaff just pipping him. Shoudlve just gone his line but didn't like the odds when I looked @1.60 Loss

Also did Boyd over 105.5 Win

Hanneberry under 96.5 Looks good

T.Mitchell under 97.5 Will be close

 

[Keystone agony]

So yeh I stayed about the same in the end +6.5 Units for the week

 

[Butler]

Tom Mitchell over Hannebery, Jackson, Malceski, Ellis, Parker, Houli, Edwards @5 (1U) Sportsbet

Hannebery is the 2.85 favourite to win this group but I believe he will get tagged this week. Mitchell had a quieter week last round but I'm backing him to bounce back.

Jack over Hannebery @1.95 (2U) Sportingbet

Don't know if I will go with the Sportsbet big groups anymore as there is just too many variables but thankfully Mitchell got me over the line in one group

As mentioned Cox just got pipped at the line by Gaff. Can't believe WB didn't put a tag on him until after half time. Covered the line easily though.


9-0-12 for -2.42U for the weekend.
69-2-57 for +26.10U for the year.

Happy with that after the weekend I have just had. Coaches were out to get me I swear. Douglas tagged over Sloane/Thompson, SJ tagged, Masten tagged, K.Cornes tagging Rich away from the play all game, Grimes tagging and WB leaving Gaff run free.

 

[Butler]

Two plays that I really like so far.

Cox over 94.5 @1.90 (4U) Betstar

WC again without Naitanui means once again Cox will be shouldering most of the ruck work. Up against Dixon and Gorringe he should have a field day in the hitouts and should dominate Gorringe around the ground. Averages 132 against the GC.

Douglas over Thompson @1.80 (4U) Betstar

Dangerfield named this week so Douglas should avoid the tag. Thompson has looked slow and sore lately and spending more time up forward. Hasn't cracked the tonne in the last 5 games.

Douglas had scored consistently well up until Crowley went to him last weekend and he scored 108 against Port earlier this year. Should easily account for Thompson.

 

[Butler]

More that I like:

Fyfe under 99.5 @1.85 (3U) Sportsbet

Carlton love to tag hard and Fyfe is coming off a massive game. Would be very very surprised if Carlton didn't send someone to him.

Barlow over Fyfe @1.80 (2U) Sportsbet

I have Barlow behind Hill, Fyfe and Mundy in the order of who will usually get tagged so I'm confident that he will avoid the extra attention that Fyfe will get.

Heppell over Cloke @1.80 (2U) Sportsbet

Carlisle got a bit of a pant-sing from Franklin last week but I rate him and I think he is more suited to Cloke. Should be a quality match up.

Heppell once again will be seeing plenty of midfield time and Collingwood are a good team to score against.

Conca over J.Riewoldt @1.75 (1U) Sportsbet

Riewoldt will have his hands full with Lake and Gibson and has put up some very low scores against some of the quality sides this year. Conca is coming off a 94 and a part of Richmonds midfield rotation.

Kelly over Goldstein @1.80 (2U) Sportsbet

Goldstein is coming off a massive score but that was up against Melbourne who have conceded massive scores to rucks in their last 3 games. He averages just 76 against Geelong.

Kelly averages 94 and has been very consistent.

 

[Keystone agony]

Whats happened to centrebet? nothing yet

 

[Keystone agony]

Not alot i like this week before the bets were even out. So im not feeling confident. Less confident in this round than any other.

The North Melbourne Strange
In the last 5 rounds NM have only conceded 5 scores over 101. 8 tonnes in the last 5. NM for the entire year only have allowed on average 1400 points against them per game. The 2nd best is 1473 in less points conceded. In the last 5 they have only conceded 1354 points on average.

So based on this ive basically gone 2 units on each of these players unders

M.Stokes 90.5
Kelly 94.5
Corey 79.5

Also gone 2u Petrie under 85.5

Geelongs key defenders usually dont allow to many point against guys like HarryT, Lonergan are very good defensive defenders.

Im going to avoid Selwood at 112.5 he loves to play North as does Jimmy at 94.5 and they dont tag usualy through the midfield that heavily so SJ at 107.5 are ones im going to avoid i think they will be their highest scorers tonight.

I see value in Enright possibly over Duncan for those wanting that 2.10 hes paying. Since Guthrie has been playing hes avg something like 95.

Also done

Cox 2U @1.88 over JJK
No NicNat weak oppo ruck and Rory Thompson back in are 3 big ticks for this one as Butler has said

Barlow 2u @1.75 over Fyfe
Not so confident with this one, but Barlow has good scoring history vs Carlton in the pass. Whilst i expect Fyfe to get a bit of attention (and im gonna call it from GIBBS)

Also thinking about Kruezer at $2 over Mundy bit of value there and i expect him to get a fairly heavy midfield tag. Kreuzer pumps out 90-105 most weeks and carlton are a tough team to score against.

 

[Keystone agony]

Ill basically be betting with luxbet this round because centrebet have really given me nothing and IAS not much either

 

[Butler]

Yeah just had a look through Sportingbets DT markets and I didn't like anything either.

I also went Petrie under 85.5 for 2U @1.76. He does very well against poor sides but generally struggles against the better sides. Averages 71 against Geelong.