KA's Dream Team bets

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Keystone agony said:
Yep ive joined lux after centrebet have really tightened the screws after my domination of them the past 2 weeks
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What do you mean by tightened the screws?


I'm just getting into the DT betting side of things, to an outsider it seem like a fairly specialised market that will only cater to the 'informed' punter ie Less 'free money' around for the books.
 

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Falchoon said:
What do you mean by tightened the screws?


I'm just getting into the DT betting side of things, to an outsider it seem like a fairly specialised market that will only cater to the 'informed' punter ie Less 'free money' around for the books.
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Umm by that i mean basically i saw easy money to be made, whereas now they have changed it a bit alot less known names being used ect

eg: they arent useing key forwards or guys that are likely to get tagged in any market, which is where the easy money is to be made IMO.
 
Keystone agony said:
Umm by that i mean basically i saw easy money to be made, whereas now they have changed it a bit alot less known names being used ect

eg: they arent useing key forwards or guys that are likely to get tagged in any market, which is where the easy money is to be made IMO.
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Well they did have N.Riewoldt and Petrie markets up over the weekend :p and they do still include key forwards and tagged players in group bets which according to my spread sheet for the year, has been my best market (41.2% return).

I would agree in a way that they have picked up their game a bit but I still see plenty of markets I like. They look like they are removing bets a bit quicker as well such as the Petrie over/under.

Sportingbet also look to be bringing in more markets with lesser known DT players head to head and in groups which is a good tactic for them imo. A lot of people don't notice non DT relevant players outside of their own teams so research is limited. Lucky I watch too much football.

At this stage I would put down Luxbet as the best for over/under and group bets and Sportingbet as the best for head to head.
 
I
Butler said:
Well they did have N.Riewoldt and Petrie markets up over the weekend :p and they do still include key forwards and tagged players in group bets which according to my spread sheet for the year, has been my best market (41.2% return).

I would agree in a way that they have picked up their game a bit but I still see plenty of markets I like. They look like they are removing bets a bit quicker as well such as the Petrie over/under.

Sportingbet also look to be bringing in more markets with lesser known DT players head to head and in groups which is a good tactic for them imo. A lot of people don't notice non DT relevant players outside of their own teams so research is limited. Lucky I watch too much football.

At this stage I would put down Luxbet as the best for over/under and group bets and Sportingbet as the best for head to head.
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m certain there was no N.Rieoldt one and i dont think petrie was at the line you said thus different outlets. Actually petrie wasnt there, only one player on centrebet had a line when i checked.
 
Cox under 104.5 @1.87 (2U) Sportingbet

Up against a good ruck combo tonight in Ryder and Bellchambers. Has only gone over this line 3 times for the entire year. Once without NN, once with NN as the sub and then last week. Can't see him having much supply resting forward either.

His line has now gone down to 101.5.

Stanton over Priddis @1.72 (1U) Sportingbet

Price came down quickly for this one. I can't see anyone on our list that could run with Stanton tonight so I expect him to run free. Scored 140 last time he played WC and also has a very good record at Subi. Priddis is consistent but with a low ceiling. Stanton should account for him easily tonight.

Naitanui over Ryder, Kennedy @2.55 (1U) Sportingbet

Kennedy will have to deal with Carlisle and even if he gets on top of him Essendon will throw Hurley back. Can see him having a tough night with limited supply as well.

Ryder has scored very well these last two weeks but that was with him playing as the number 1 ruck. Splitting his ruck time and up against NN/Cox should see a drop in his scoring.

Stanton over Watson, Goddard and Heppell @2.60 Luxbet

Stanton reasons are what I listed above. Heppell and Goddard are in great form and should enjoy the open spaces of Subi (although Heppells record is average here) but I'm happy to take Stanton because of his record at Subi, his record against WC and the fact that we don't have a matchup that can run with him for the entire game.
 
Damn i swear i checked not long ago and the bets wernt even up, then checked not long after and all of sudden changes in price have already occured.

Anyway my bets are above. Not confident with them. I like the NicNat one the best.
 

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Kennedy over Hannebery @2.15 (1U) Sportingbet

Thoughts on this were posted in the Round 14 thread:

Butler said:
Carlton love to tag this year. Cachia takes inside players, Curnow takes the more outside players and Armfield often plays as a defensive forward.

Hannebery has been tagged in his last 3 games for scores of 66, 136 and 53. Hocking and K.Cornes have dominated him but he tore Kerridge a new one against Adelaide. I think Curnow will go to him but I wouldn't be surprised to see Cachia tag Kennedy as well.

I have put a unit on Kennedy as I think it is slightly overs but not overly confident.
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1U Gibbs over Jarrad Mcveigh $1.90

I expect Gibbs to go H2H with either JPK or Rok, most likely ROK and find a fair bit of it and continue his tackling numbers. Whilst i also expect Jarrad Mcveigh to be one of the 3 tagged by carlton with Curnow, Armfield, Cachia.

1U K.Jack under 108.5 $1.87

Just a little too high for me i think there is value in this bet. Whether i think he will go under or higher is hard to say but carlton in the alst few weeks have really stopped oppositions teams from scoring. Hawks at ES a high scoring ground and a huge DT scoring side there highest scorer was just 97 (S.Mitchell). Whilst they also prevented the likes of Watson, Stanton, Goddard to less then avg scores and also as a team whole.

4U
Craig Bird over Henderson and Betts $2.55

Betts avg 63 for the season
Bird is avg 93 in his last 3 games (and if you take away his sub affected games his avg is far superior)
Henderson avg 66.5 for the year

I expect it to be hard to score for these types vs sydney and if Bird aint the sub he should get the chocolates.

3U
Dangerfield over 106.5 $2

He hasnt been given the credit for how good hes been this year and we have a serious AFL player on our hands, im talking in the now Ablett mould if not better i reckon. I think hes a superior footballer to cotchin. Adelaide have been poor hes had no help and no ruck benefits and hes still killing it either by kicking goals or racking up large amounts of possies. My stats tell me he has scored 145, 141, 121, 114 when he hasnt been tagged this year, GC dont seem to be running tags evident by 4 tonnes by the roos (who dont usually score that great) in round 11 and 6 tonnes incl 153 by Goddard in round 12 against them.

I expect Danger to cover this if he comes to play.

2U Harbrow over Stanley and Broughton

Broughton out of form back into the team, maybe a new role could see him win this one but i think Harbrow is way overs when you look at this.

Broughton: returning, named on bench, (Avg 70 this year) $2.85
Stanley: Avg 79 for year, last 2 scores just 68 and 82 $2.45
Harbrbow: Avg 84.1 for the year last 2 scores 106 and 91 $2.85

Really i think Harbrow should be far less and paying stanleys price and stanley paying harbrows price. So i find value there and yes i think he should win it, all going well.

2U Will minson over 91.5 $1.87

Minson cuts up the shit teams and melbourne dont have either of their top 2 rucks playing in Jamar or Gawn. In his last 6 he is avg 96. (shit teams) vs north 89, stk 88, GC 112, port 122, Bris 92.

In good form and against a poor ruck unit he should get that IMO.


1U on Terlich over Nathan Jones $2.10

Terlich has avg 85.33 in his last 6 games that included a sub affected game where he took no part in the last quarter and a 1/3.

Nathan Jones im not confident will get the Lower tag and even then he is struggling to limit players but the dogs should handle melbourne pretty well i wouldve thought and hopefully he goes to him. Even then Jones is only avg 77.6 for the year fairing a little better with form of late 84.5 in his last 4.

2U Fyfe to beat Bartel $2.15

2U Fyfe to beat (kelly, J.Selwood) $2.70


2U Scotland under 80.5 $1.87

Has struggled to score of late let alone against sydney at the SCG as an outside type player its very hard. Hasnt surpassed this in his last 5 games and they were all against avg sides and no Syd at SCG.

1U Hanneberry under 91.5 $1.80

As butler said struggles against the tag of late vs Hocking and co and i completely agree carlton are shutting down scores and to key playmakers with tags. I expect JPK, Hanneberry and Mcveigh/Malceski to get the tags tonight.


Best bets
Scotland under 80.5, Fyfe bets, Craig Bird bet

Next Best
Dangerfield and Harbrow

Value
Terlich over N.Jones, Harbrow
 
I don't usually bet on DT markets, but surely Dane Swan's line of 118.5 @ 1.85 at Betstar would have to be of some value? This line has actually come down from 120.5 during the week. Port is one of his favourite DT teams to play. He's gone 134, 137, 155 (at AAMI), 141 (at AAMI) and 154 against them dating back to 2009. He's in great form (130+ the last three weeks) playing in the midfield where he belongs, against a middle of the road team.

Is the weather looking average or something?

EDIT: And it's back up to 119.5
 
Jobe Watson said:
I don't usually bet on DT markets, but surely Dane Swan's line of 118.5 @ 1.85 at Betstar would have to be of some value? This line has actually come down from 120.5 during the week. Port is one of his favourite DT teams to play. He's gone 134, 137, 155 (at AAMI), 141 (at AAMI) and 154 against them dating back to 2009. He's in great form (130+ the last three weeks) playing in the midfield where he belongs, against a middle of the road team.

Is the weather looking average or something?

EDIT: And it's back up to 119.5
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His line is 126.5 with Sportingbet. Have taken over 119.5 with Betstar. Very rarely find any DT bets I like with Betstar but this one looks good.
 
Wingard > Ball, Sidebottom @2.80 (1U) Sportingbet

Wingard has scored 4 100's in the last 4 games and is in very good form whilst Ball is returning from injury and Sidebottom is coming off scores of 71 v Melbourne and 87 v the Bulldogs.

Pendlebury under 115.5 @1.87 (1U) Sportingbet

Last time Cornes went to Harry O but I'm expecting him to go to Pendlebury this time around. Cornes is in good tagging form after keeping Hannebery to just 53 last week. Pendlebury has more strings to his bow but 115 is a big line for someone up against a good tagger.

Frawley over Watts, Jordan Roughead @2.65 (2U) Sportingbet

Melbourne looked to try keep possession of the ball a lot more under the new coach and it involved a lot of chipping around the back line. Garland (117) and Terlich (100) both reaped rewards for this style and I'm expecting Frawley to join in on the fun. Watts played as a permanent forward last week and I'm expecting the same again. Roughead averages just 53.

Kennedy over Judd, Gibbs and Hannebery @3 (1U) Luxbet

Wet weather footy should suit Kennedy.

Robinson over Scotland, Walker, Mcglynn @3 (1U) Luxbet

Murphy out should open up some more midfield time for Robinson and a stoppage friendly wet weather game should help him out. It's not often that Sydney let damaging half back flankers run free so I'm expecting Walker to get some attention and Scotland has been very average lately.

McLean over 99.5 @1.95 (1U) Luxbet

Mclean has spent a lot of time at half forward this year but with Murphy out I'm expecting him to see a lot more time in the middle. Proved last year how well he can score when given the opportunity in the middle.

Swan over 119.5 @1.85 (4U) Betstar

Averages 142 against Port. Enough said really.
 
I'm going against you Butler with Mclean.
Under 99.5 @ $1.80
Been killing it last 3 weeks 115+ but he's averaged 10 marks a game in that time and Sydney especially at SCG are usually good at restricting marks so hoping that will keep him under.
 
I dont think youll see too many players score over 100 tonight. I reckon Gibbs possibly only blue and then i reckon Rok, Jack, T.Mitchell, JPK (maybe) for the swans.

Kreuzer might go alright aswell i reckon pretty sole ruck
 
some good ones here, in addition to my bets in the main thread im tailing
1u bird over henderson and betts @ 2.5
1u frawley over watts and roughhead @ 2.65
1u terlich over jones @ 2.1
1u minson>91.5 @ 1.97
1u harbrow over stanley and broughton @2.85
1u scotland < 80.5 @ 2
 
Boak over 94.5 @1.87 (4U) Luxbet

Averages 101 and has beaten this line 8 out 11 games this year. Should be fresh after the week off. Only worry is Macaffer going to him.

Boak over Cloke, Shaw, Sidebottom @3 (1U) Luxbet

Have taken the most consistent out of the 4. At 3 I think he is value.

Hartlett under 85.5 (1U) Luxbet

Averages 79 and has gone under this line 7 out of the last 8 games (although he did go close last week). Is also a good chance to get the Macaffer tag.

Westhoff under 86.5 (2U) Luxbet

Averages just 61 against Collingwood. In hindsight, I would have only placed 1 unit on this bet but rushed it a bit with Luxbets quick market moves. Still reasonably confident he will go under.
 
Keystone agony said:
1U Gibbs over Jarrad Mcveigh $1.90 WIN (Easily)

I expect Gibbs to go H2H with either JPK or Rok, most likely ROK and find a fair bit of it and continue his tackling numbers. Whilst i also expect Jarrad Mcveigh to be one of the 3 tagged by carlton with Curnow, Armfield, Cachia.

1U K.Jack under 108.5 $1.87 WIN (Easily)

Just a little too high for me i think there is value in this bet. Whether i think he will go under or higher is hard to say but carlton in the alst few weeks have really stopped oppositions teams from scoring. Hawks at ES a high scoring ground and a huge DT scoring side there highest scorer was just 97 (S.Mitchell). Whilst they also prevented the likes of Watson, Stanton, Goddard to less then avg scores and also as a team whole.

4U
Craig Bird over Henderson and Betts $2.55 WIN (Easily)

Betts avg 63 for the season
Bird is avg 93 in his last 3 games (and if you take away his sub affected games his avg is far superior)
Henderson avg 66.5 for the year

I expect it to be hard to score for these types vs sydney and if Bird aint the sub he should get the chocolates.

3U
Dangerfield over 106.5 $2 WIN

He hasnt been given the credit for how good hes been this year and we have a serious AFL player on our hands, im talking in the now Ablett mould if not better i reckon. I think hes a superior footballer to cotchin. Adelaide have been poor hes had no help and no ruck benefits and hes still killing it either by kicking goals or racking up large amounts of possies. My stats tell me he has scored 145, 141, 121, 114 when he hasnt been tagged this year, GC dont seem to be running tags evident by 4 tonnes by the roos (who dont usually score that great) in round 11 and 6 tonnes incl 153 by Goddard in round 12 against them.

I expect Danger to cover this if he comes to play.

2U Harbrow over Stanley and Broughton Loss (by just 2 points and Broughton was no where near it, 32 posses to harbrow not bad)

Broughton out of form back into the team, maybe a new role could see him win this one but i think Harbrow is way overs when you look at this.

Broughton: returning, named on bench, (Avg 70 this year) $2.85
Stanley: Avg 79 for year, last 2 scores just 68 and 82 $2.45
Harbrbow: Avg 84.1 for the year last 2 scores 106 and 91 $2.85

Really i think Harbrow should be far less and paying stanleys price and stanley paying harbrows price. So i find value there and yes i think he should win it, all going well.

2U Will minson over 91.5 $1.87

Minson cuts up the shit teams and melbourne dont have either of their top 2 rucks playing in Jamar or Gawn. In his last 6 he is avg 96. (shit teams) vs north 89, stk 88, GC 112, port 122, Bris 92.

In good form and against a poor ruck unit he should get that IMO.


1U on Terlich over Nathan Jones $2.10

Terlich has avg 85.33 in his last 6 games that included a sub affected game where he took no part in the last quarter and a 1/3.

Nathan Jones im not confident will get the Lower tag and even then he is struggling to limit players but the dogs should handle melbourne pretty well i wouldve thought and hopefully he goes to him. Even then Jones is only avg 77.6 for the year fairing a little better with form of late 84.5 in his last 4.

2U Fyfe to beat Bartel $2.15

2U Fyfe to beat (kelly, J.Selwood) $2.70


2U Scotland under 80.5 $1.87 WIN (Easily)

Has struggled to score of late let alone against sydney at the SCG as an outside type player its very hard. Hasnt surpassed this in his last 5 games and they were all against avg sides and no Syd at SCG.

1U Hanneberry under 91.5 $1.80 WIN (Easily)

As butler said struggles against the tag of late vs Hocking and co and i completely agree carlton are shutting down scores and to key playmakers with tags. I expect JPK, Hanneberry and Mcveigh/Malceski to get the tags tonight.


Best bets
Scotland under 80.5, Fyfe bets, Craig Bird bet

Next Best
Dangerfield and Harbrow

Value
Terlich over N.Jones, Harbrow
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Oh boy oh boy im back in a big way.

Last night I not only suggested to my friend samwise that jack would probably only get an 80 odd (happened) and that the only 2 blues that will get tonnes would be Kreuzer and Gibbs (happened) but I went 5/5 and find myself several units ahead +11.51 units for the game/night.

Back on board
 

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