Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

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Mutineer said:
Thoughts Knighta?

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McGowan is spot on with this, he should be made to wait a year out..

US college athletes move insterstate all the time, and that is without the guarantee of a pro contract. European footballers travel the globe at younger ages than AFL draftees.. our guys just need to harden up and get off their mum’s teet.
 
ItsAllAboutMe said:
Cheers just had a look now so easy to find, from 2018 April rankings November obvious exclusion is Bailey Smith and then having Riley Collier-Dawkins (6) and Curtis Taylor (11) ranked so highly. You had Walsh at 10, but the players ahead of him like Luko, Rankine, King you were still very keen on at the end of the year so probably more opinion based than a change in development/performance..

2016 & 17 look similar with most players you had ranked top 10 going top 10 just in very different orders with a couple of bolters like Tarranto and a few that must have fallen hard like Willem Drew.

In conclusion, it is slightly more risky to have high picks this year of having a complete bust but the majority of the good players should have shown themselves by now, however the order which you have picks in the top 10 is completely irrelevant because its a complete lottery.

The other question i have is, for the Vic kids how much would missing a year of footy effected their development, can you basically put a line through all of them playing senior footy in 2021 as they will need to get back up to speed with the game and then take the next step at AFL level..
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The Taranto draft I'm still kicking myself for not having Taranto higher, as if not for that outside noise I was hearing he would have been my #2 behind only McCluggage, and I felt that way early season. That's one I got talked out of, particularly early in the season, rating him ahead of McGrath, and feeling like he was the more influential on outcomes both as a forward and through the midfield. That's why I'm so big on making my own evaluations and blocking out the noise. The longer I've done this, the more I get frustrated when I miss on guys I really liked in these kinds of ways. That's why I'll openly recommend others who want good power rankings to sit away from other recruiters and not get influenced by their thoughts/feelings. Be it their play, or character references which were glowing for McGrath at that time, but not so much for Taranto.

The missing a year question on their development is an all important one. How do you rate them? Based on how they were when they last played? How you think they would be had the season gone ahead? Somewhere inbetween? I'm more in the former camp where I'd prefer to go off of how they last played, or closer to. But then you have the nuances, particularly with KPPs of not knowing their rate of development as they haven't played this year to have any idea. So I've played it very conservatively in my own rankings. Clubs seem likely to do that less and with talls in particular are giving them a lot of benefit of the doubt, and that's fair enough as they would have been keeping closer track of a lot of the kids than I have had the chance to.

Johnny Bananas said:
Hi KM, I notice your phantom is very similar to Cal Twomey's. I'm not insinuating anything untoward, I'm just wondering if you reckon you and he have the same sources, or independent sources saying similar things.
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I think The Age have also completed a similar phantom draft this morning also.

A phantom draft is a guess at where guys go and you don't get any prizes for picks you get wrong.

Cal is well connected and talks to the recruiters the most and as a result doesn't get a lot wrong early draft. And talking to clubs all the time, it seems like he has that feel a lot earlier on, whereas I'll get more small sprinkles eg. Brayden Cook first round before anyone was talking about him as a top-20 prospect in any capacity as just one top of mind example.

I find that last 24-48 hours heading into the draft is when my small number of connections really have a lot for me and are more solid and consistent in what they say.

Where I think Cal and/or I could be wrong is Essendon if I'm to guess. Powell is a genuine chance, as is Macrae and I believe he had Bruhn. I'm tipping Macrae given Essendon lack anything outside, but Powell I'm hearing is also a strong chance and may be favoured to Bruhn.

Another call I could be wrong on, along with Cal, Luke Pedlar I wouldn't be surprised to see go quite a bit earlier.

Ultimately it doesn't take much for the order to change and for one guy to fall a lot this year, or go a lot higher than expected, with some clubs seeming committed or likely committed to some players.

Mutineer said:
Thoughts Knighta?

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Archie, as with any other draft prospect will say whatever they choose to say during the interview process. That's up to them. People ultimately will do whatever they choose unless there is a rule in place that prevents them from doing so.

Just as with clubs, wherever you get picked, you get picked and that's where you're going irrespective.

The ultimate aim of most is to get drafted. If we're talking about a mid-late draft prospect, a comment like that could see clubs put off and lose interest with clubs to view them as soft and not prepared for the demands of AFL.

In the case of Perkins, it's probably more-so the difference between going to say one of Essendon's, one of GWS' picks or North Melbourne's picks and somewhere more like pick 15ish eg. Collingwood, as it's starting to sound more like.

So the actions of Archie will ultimately have repercussions irrespective of there being a rule around what he did.

Ultimately though, I'm not someone all that interested in the politics of it. My interest is in analysing the draft prospects. But for me it would be more if he was only willing to join one particular club and no one else, that's when I'd personally be finding it more distasteful.
 
Knightmare said:
The Taranto draft I'm still kicking myself for not having Taranto higher, as if not for that outside noise I was hearing he would have been my #2 behind only McCluggage, and I felt that way early season. That's one I got talked out of, particularly early in the season, rating him ahead of McGrath, and feeling like he was the more influential on outcomes both as a forward and through the midfield. That's why I'm so big on making my own evaluations and blocking out the noise. The longer I've done this, the more I get frustrated when I miss on guys I really liked in these kinds of ways. That's why I'll openly recommend others who want good power rankings to sit away from other recruiters and not get influenced by their thoughts/feelings. Be it their play, or character references which were glowing for McGrath at that time, but not so much for Taranto.

The missing a year question on their development is an all important one. How do you rate them? Based on how they were when they last played? How you think they would be had the season gone ahead? Somewhere inbetween? I'm more in the former camp where I'd prefer to go off of how they last played, or closer to. But then you have the nuances, particularly with KPPs of not knowing their rate of development as they haven't played this year to have any idea. So I've played it very conservatively in my own rankings. Clubs seem likely to do that less and with talls in particular are giving them a lot of benefit of the doubt, and that's fair enough as they would have been keeping closer track of a lot of the kids than I have had the chance to.



I think The Age have also completed a similar phantom draft this morning also.

A phantom draft is a guess at where guys go and you don't get any prizes for picks you get wrong.

Cal is well connected and talks to the recruiters the most and as a result doesn't get a lot wrong early draft. And talking to clubs all the time, it seems like he has that feel a lot earlier on, whereas I'll get more small sprinkles eg. Brayden Cook first round before anyone was talking about him as a top-20 prospect in any capacity as just one top of mind example.

I find that last 24-48 hours heading into the draft is when my small number of connections really have a lot for me and are more solid and consistent in what they say.

Where I think Cal and/or I could be wrong is Essendon if I'm to guess. Powell is a genuine chance, as is Macrae and I believe he had Bruhn. I'm tipping Macrae given Essendon lack anything outside, but Powell I'm hearing is also a strong chance and may be favoured to Bruhn.

Another call I could be wrong on, along with Cal, Luke Pedlar I wouldn't be surprised to see go quite a bit earlier.

Ultimately it doesn't take much for the order to change and for one guy to fall a lot this year, or go a lot higher than expected, with some clubs seeming committed or likely committed to some players.



Archie, as with any other draft prospect will say whatever they choose to say during the interview process. That's up to them. People ultimately will do whatever they choose unless there is a rule in place that prevents them from doing so.

Just as with clubs, wherever you get picked, you get picked and that's where you're going irrespective.

The ultimate aim of most is to get drafted. If we're talking about a mid-late draft prospect, a comment like that could see clubs put off and lose interest with clubs to view them as soft and not prepared for the demands of AFL.

In the case of Perkins, it's probably more-so the difference between going to say one of Essendon's, one of GWS' picks or North Melbourne's picks and somewhere more like pick 15ish eg. Collingwood, as it's starting to sound more like.

So the actions of Archie will ultimately have repercussions irrespective of there being a rule around what he did.

Ultimately though, I'm not someone all that interested in the politics of it. My interest is in analysing the draft prospects. But for me it would be more if he was only willing to join one particular club and no one else, that's when I'd personally be finding it more distasteful.
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I disagree, it's called the AUSTRALIAN Football League for a reason....You go where you're drafted no question, no if's and or but's or it makes a joke of the whole draft system which is compromised enough already.
 

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Mutineer said:
I disagree, it's called the AUSTRALIAN Football League for a reason....You go where you're drafted no question, no if's and or but's or it makes a joke of the whole draft system which is compromised enough already.
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His not the first and won't be the last to say he will be heading home at the end of his initial contract. Some go interstate cope with it better then they expect and end up staying their and others sit out and head home at the end of their initial deal. I agree with you in that if this is the career you choose moving interstate is one of the requirements in most cases.
 
Mojorisin said:
His not the first and won't be the last to say he will be heading home at the end of his initial contract. Some go interstate cope with it better then they expect and end up staying their and others sit out and head home at the end of their initial deal. I agree with you in that if this is the career you choose moving interstate is one of the requirements in most cases.
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The issue many have with this is that if it was a West Aussie or South Aussie saying this then the AFL would come down like a shower of sh!t.

Double standards.
 
Joose said:
The issue many have with this is that if it was a West Aussie or South Aussie saying this then the AFL would come down like a shower of sh!t.

Double standards.
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Not really, cam McCarthy was one that sat out his contract before heading home to you guys has been a few at port and crows aswell
 
Mutineer said:
I disagree, it's called the AUSTRALIAN Football League for a reason....You go where you're drafted no question, no if's and or but's or it makes a joke of the whole draft system which is compromised enough already.
Click to expand...

Not every 18 year old is ready to move interstate, nor necessarily can cope with that.

Clubs pick them anyway, but what tends to happen over time, those who don't announce it during the draft process, and most keep it quiet, will return to their home states at the first available opportunity.

I don't hate if I'm to give it consideration. If a club is investing a high pick eg. GWS taking a Tom Boyd at 1. It's helpful before taking the guy whether they're likely to stay beyond their first contract with the club.

I know if I'm a club recruiter it's a question I'd be asking - how they feel about moving interstate and how they feel they'd go with that, what their concerns would be. It's really just a stage of due diligence ultimately and learning about the player you're exploring. And often clubs will figure that out anyway without getting that same answer Archie provided.

Different people will feel differently about moving interstate. Everyone is an individual.

Find that out early, and if you figure they're really not going to be able to cope with that, that's handy to know early on in the process so you can move that pick for a player or another pick in a spot you want to make your pick.

The AFL is very different to international sports. If it's basketball, you don't have a concentration of teams in any one state, so chances are you'll be moving out of state.

For me ultimately, it's shoulder shrug stuff, and as per my original comment on the subject, all it does practically is it hurts Perkins' perceived value.
 
Knightmare said:
Not every 18 year old is ready to move interstate, nor necessarily can cope with that.

Clubs pick them anyway, but what tends to happen over time, those who don't announce it during the draft process, and most keep it quiet, will return to their home states at the first available opportunity.

I don't hate if I'm to give it consideration. If a club is investing a high pick eg. GWS taking a Tom Boyd at 1. It's helpful before taking the guy whether they're likely to stay beyond their first contract with the club.

I know if I'm a club recruiter it's a question I'd be asking - how they feel about moving interstate and how they feel they'd go with that, what their concerns would be. It's really just a stage of due diligence ultimately and learning about the player you're exploring. And often clubs will figure that out anyway without getting that same answer Archie provided.

Different people will feel differently about moving interstate. Everyone is an individual.

Find that out early, and if you figure they're really not going to be able to cope with that, that's handy to know early on in the process so you can move that pick for a player or another pick in a spot you want to make your pick.

The AFL is very different to international sports. If it's basketball, you don't have a concentration of teams in any one state, so chances are you'll be moving out of state.

For me ultimately, it's shoulder shrug stuff, and as per my original comment on the subject, all it does practically is it hurts Perkins' perceived value.
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If they aren't ready to move interstate they shouldn't be nominating for a National draft. Simple as that.
 
Mutineer said:
I disagree, it's called the AUSTRALIAN Football League for a reason....You go where you're drafted no question, no if's and or but's or it makes a joke of the whole draft system which is compromised enough already.
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Has anyone said he won't go where he's drafted? All he's said is that he'd rather not leave Victoria.
Mountain out of molehill. No different to uni grads getting on programs interstate then moving back after getting a year or two experience.
Sure he could just lie and say he's not worried, but the end result is likely the same (him leaving after 2 years). At least now the clubs have more information to go off before drafting him.
Agree with KM, all it does is hurt his perceived value.
 
fuic08 said:
If they aren't ready to move interstate they shouldn't be nominating for a National draft. Simple as that.
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Whether they vocalise it or not, and most don't.

That's not the reality.

You'd have to do an anonymous survey of the prospects. But it wouldn't be unreasonable to think 1/10, or to play it conservatively 1/20, have zero interest in moving interestate and would have every intention of moving back to their home state as soon as they can.

My perspective is that's on the clubs to be aware of and do their research on.

Based on the law of averages with 2/18 WA clubs, 2/18 SA clubs, they're the clubs that ultimately from a go-home factor should over time do the best with the highest proportion of players in the AFL compared to the proportion of teams from those states.

So it's curious fans of South Australian football clubs would be among those particularly vocal on the subject.

BEaston said:
Has anyone said he won't go where he's drafted? All he's said is that he'd rather not leave Victoria.
Mountain out of molehill. No different to uni grads getting on programs interstate then moving back after getting a year or two experience.
Sure he could just lie and say he's not worried, but the end result is likely the same (him leaving after 2 years). At least now the clubs have more information to go off before drafting him.
Agree with KM, all it does is hurt his perceived value.
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I do see a distinction between saying you'd rather remain in your home state and outwardly saying 'if you pick me. I'm not joining your club and staying where I am.' When we get into that latter category, again that's where I see it as a problem and not a good look where I'd agree with the sentiment that player x shouldn't be entering the draft.
 
Knightmare said:
Whether they vocalise it or not, and most don't.

That's not the reality.

You'd have to do an anonymous survey of the prospects. But it wouldn't be unreasonable to think 1/10, or to play it conservatively 1/20, have zero interest in moving interestate and would have every intention of moving back to their home state as soon as they can.

My perspective is that's on the clubs to be aware of and do their research on.

Based on the law of averages with 2/18 WA clubs, 2/18 SA clubs, they're the clubs that ultimately from a go-home factor should over time do the best with the highest proportion of players in the AFL compared to the proportion of teams from those states.

So it's curious fans of South Australian football clubs would be among those particularly vocal on the subject.



I do see a distinction between saying you'd rather remain in your home state and outwardly saying 'if you pick me. I'm not joining your club and staying where I am.' When we get into that latter category, again that's where I see it as a problem and not a good look where I'd agree with the sentiment that player x shouldn't be entering the draft.
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I think a quick look at how often players request a trade back to the Adelaide teams due to home sickness vs the number of Victorians players who do so would tell you that.

Seeing that everyone saying that there's nothing wrong with what Perkins has done are Victorian team supporters also tells you who generally benefits.
 
why are people comparing trades to national draft. It's apples v pears.
 

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BEaston said:
Has anyone said he won't go where he's drafted? All he's said is that he'd rather not leave Victoria.
Mountain out of molehill. No different to uni grads getting on programs interstate then moving back after getting a year or two experience.
Sure he could just lie and say he's not worried, but the end result is likely the same (him leaving after 2 years). At least now the clubs have more information to go off before drafting him.
Agree with KM, all it does is hurt his perceived value.
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www.theage.com.au

'I wanted to be honest': Draft prospect tells AFL clubs he wants to stay in Victoria

Archie Perkins has informed non-Victorian clubs of his preference not to be drafted interstate. "I hope they take that on board," he said.
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au

“I would be ready to go and fully committed. I just don’t think I’m ready for that and I wanted to be honest about it.”
Recruiting sources have confirmed Perkins has left non-Victorian clubs clearly of the impression that he does not want to head interstate.

Sources have indicated that Perkins has opted against engaging with some non-Victorian clubs and even hinted to one that he would not join them if drafted by that club.
The AFL, which has anti-tampering rules, has been contacted for official comment.
 
Joose said:
The issue many have with this is that if it was a West Aussie or South Aussie saying this then the AFL would come down like a shower of sh!t.

Double standards.
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Like they did with Chad Wingard?

The biggest double standard here is that 1/4 to 1/3 of all picks are already locked to a club in this draft. The number 1 pick, multiple guys from NSW and QLD, the second best SA prospect and so on.

It's hard for the AFL to be critical of Archie when you've got stories like James Borlase being eligible to the Crows as a next generation academy player when his dad was captain of Port!!

Scrap everything but father sons and move the NAB League and National Champs to under 19's and then you can crack down on players who aren't keen to relocate and suggest they play another year of juniors and re-evaluate. As it stands right now, it's pretty much the AFLW draft which is state based.
 
master bate said:
Like they did with Chad Wingard?

The biggest double standard here is that 1/4 to 1/3 of all picks are already locked to a club in this draft. The number 1 pick, multiple guys from NSW and QLD, the second best SA prospect and so on.

It's hard for the AFL to be critical of Archie when you've got stories like James Borlase being eligible to the Crows as a next generation academy player when his dad was captain of Port!!

Scrap everything but father sons and move the NAB League and National Champs to under 19's and then you can crack down on players who aren't keen to relocate and suggest they play another year of juniors and re-evaluate. As it stands right now, it's pretty much the AFLW draft which is state based.
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Once again, another 'false equivalence'

These are not the same things. Stop trying to muddy the waters. The Archie Perkins comments are draft tampering, full stop.
 
WeedsMullet84 said:
Once again, another 'false equivalence'

These are not the same things. Stop trying to muddy the waters. The Archie Perkins comments are draft tampering, full stop.
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What would you call the academy system? It's one giant tamper with the draft, designed by the league. I'm not saying that any individual academy player is equivalent to Perkins, but I am saying the league can't clamp down on any one kid when they've completely butchered the draft themselves.
 
master bate said:
What would you call the academy system? It's one giant tamper with the draft, designed by the league. I'm not saying that any individual academy player is equivalent to Perkins, but I am saying the league can't clamp down on any one kid when they've completely butchered the draft themselves.
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I'm not even going to bother, mate, you're so far off the mark.

Enjoy the draft!
 
Knightmare said:
I do see a distinction between saying you'd rather remain in your home state and outwardly saying 'if you pick me. I'm not joining your club and staying where I am.' When we get into that latter category, again that's where I see it as a problem and not a good look where I'd agree with the sentiment that player x shouldn't be entering the draft.
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Yeah, definitely. Despite what people in this thread might think, he's only said the former.
Apart from that it's lots of unnamed "sources" that are "indicating" and "hinting".
The media need clicks and good method is to induce some kind of frenzy or outrage in the masses. Even better to play into their existing complexes as well.
Job done.
 
WeedsMullet84 said:
Once again, another 'false equivalence'

These are not the same things. Stop trying to muddy the waters. The Archie Perkins comments are draft tampering, full stop.
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Why are Crows fans in particular so outraged by this? The kid has been dum but it’s not draft tampering unless he has a clear idea that his comments guarantee him a certain club. I really don’t think he’s that strategic that he’s trying to manipulate the draft order.
Offering to do a trade on the basis of a nod and a wink to not bid on an NGA player you rate very highly. Spreading stories of interest in McInnes to try and get the Pies to panic and make a desperate trade. Now that would be a lot closer to draft tampering.
 
Northernsoul74 said:
Why are Crows fans in particular so outraged by this? The kid has been dum but it’s not draft tampering unless he has a clear idea that his comments guarantee him a certain club. I really don’t think he’s that strategic that he’s trying to manipulate the draft order.
Offering to do a trade on the basis of a nod and a wink to not bid on an NGA player you rate very highly. Spreading stories of interest in McInnes to try and get the Pies to panic and make a desperate trade. Now that would be a lot closer to draft tampering.
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hahahaha

Jog on, mate.
 
Mutineer said:
Thoughts Knighta?

Click to expand...


so Perkins is going to Gold Coast then i guess...
i remember a few years ago now, but Jonathan Robran refused to come to Victoria when drafted, stayed in SA for a year and then came over and had a short career, we also had a WA kid forget the name that didnt come to Victoria when we drafted him, happens, but im guessing these days he will move and if he enjoys his time his mind will change, if not he will be gone in 2-3 years for a trade?
 
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