Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac
- Thread starter Knightmare
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
FNeighbourhoodSpiderman
Rookie
- Oct 2, 2020
- 48
- 117
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
A fun hypothetical and what looks like alternate draft day scenario I wrote up in the Adelaide Crows forum thread that I thought I'd add here in case anyone else finds it interesting ...
I'm also going to throw out a completely hypothetical draft day scenario for the Crows that sounds unconventional at first, but I think could have ended up being as effective or more effective than what it looks like we are going to do (target a tall with our first pick) ...
I don't think it would have been crazy for the Crows to target Will Phillips and Macrae with our first two picks (there's a chance we even could have traded down for Phillips and acquired more draft capital this year or next), and then drafted for need with our remaining picks. Guys like Allison, Baldwin and Callow could have been tall targets with later picks.
My rationale with Phillips and Macrae would be:
- Both guys are two of the more AFL ready players in the draft
- They are teammates at Oakleigh (would help with the go home factor)
- Both have a chance of being top 5 or top 10 players from this draft when all is said and done in a decade or so
- Both are some of the most bust proof players in the draft in my opinion - I'd be very surprised if both don't end up to be 150 game players
- Phillips gives you speed and a contested edge, and Macrae gives you something completely opposite with his skills based game
- Both guys, especially Phillips, are the type of guys who I think would walk into your club Day 1 and level up (or reinforce) your training standards and culture. Both are high pedigree guys
- Phillips is a potential future captain, and reportedly has amazing leadership ability (I think there's a decent chance he would have been similar to an Ollie Wines where if he went to an interstate club, especially with a few other young victorian boys there, and you started gradually giving him more responsibility, he'd soon grow to like the club, buy in, and want to stay as long as you're competitive)
- The Crows currently don't have a player exactly like either of these guys in the midfield
- Both are durable, and carry no major injury risks
Like I said, it's simply a fun hypothetical. But, I think it also wouldn't have been a bad draft strategy if the Crows had gone through with it.
If you're making me the Crows recruiters, and you're saying to me - "I want you to go out and try to balance getting the maximum possible return with the least possible risk", I think my draft strategy would have looked something similar to this.
I'm also going to throw out a completely hypothetical draft day scenario for the Crows that sounds unconventional at first, but I think could have ended up being as effective or more effective than what it looks like we are going to do (target a tall with our first pick) ...
I don't think it would have been crazy for the Crows to target Will Phillips and Macrae with our first two picks (there's a chance we even could have traded down for Phillips and acquired more draft capital this year or next), and then drafted for need with our remaining picks. Guys like Allison, Baldwin and Callow could have been tall targets with later picks.
My rationale with Phillips and Macrae would be:
- Both guys are two of the more AFL ready players in the draft
- They are teammates at Oakleigh (would help with the go home factor)
- Both have a chance of being top 5 or top 10 players from this draft when all is said and done in a decade or so
- Both are some of the most bust proof players in the draft in my opinion - I'd be very surprised if both don't end up to be 150 game players
- Phillips gives you speed and a contested edge, and Macrae gives you something completely opposite with his skills based game
- Both guys, especially Phillips, are the type of guys who I think would walk into your club Day 1 and level up (or reinforce) your training standards and culture. Both are high pedigree guys
- Phillips is a potential future captain, and reportedly has amazing leadership ability (I think there's a decent chance he would have been similar to an Ollie Wines where if he went to an interstate club, especially with a few other young victorian boys there, and you started gradually giving him more responsibility, he'd soon grow to like the club, buy in, and want to stay as long as you're competitive)
- The Crows currently don't have a player exactly like either of these guys in the midfield
- Both are durable, and carry no major injury risks
Like I said, it's simply a fun hypothetical. But, I think it also wouldn't have been a bad draft strategy if the Crows had gone through with it.
If you're making me the Crows recruiters, and you're saying to me - "I want you to go out and try to balance getting the maximum possible return with the least possible risk", I think my draft strategy would have looked something similar to this.
- Banned
- #2,528
silly question knightmare, but what is the strike rate of taller players going in the top 15 ? v mid types, guessing of course
clubs have seemed scared to draft tall (over 192cm) players why the big shift this year?? naughton grundy fogarty slide on draft night
clubs have seemed scared to draft tall (over 192cm) players why the big shift this year?? naughton grundy fogarty slide on draft night
- Dec 22, 2006
- 9,718
- 11,598
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Tottenham Hotspur
KM do you have any historical rankings showin say for 2018 or other years at the start of the year vs at the end of the year??
With the lack of exposed form will be interesting to see how much they vary in season.
With the lack of exposed form will be interesting to see how much they vary in season.
Last edited:
https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ft-************-espn-full-final-phantom-draft
What would be the benefit of Essendon bidding on acadamy players with their last of the three picks? Surely they bid with their first pick which has the most points tied to it to maximise their chance of forcing the other team to pass? It wont effect who they get at the next 2 picks at all
Following their draft board.
Their draft board wouldnt be effected though?
If they rate the players 7,8 & 9 with the 9th tied to another club. They're guaranteed to get the two they rate at 7 and 8 regardless
The Prosecutor
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 13, 2011
- 12,369
- 19,873
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Yeah, that seems to be piggy backing off Cal, as Dan Cherny has also done too.
Also has mcdonald sliding.
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
- 19,533
- 19,542
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Chicago Bulls
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #2,536
Phillips would be a fit for Adelaide. Adelaide need mids.
The problems I see if eg. wanting to move down to Hawthorn's pick 4 is they think they can get Logan McDonald there. While if move down to Gold Coast's pick 5, and if they're taking Logan at 1, then Hawthorn probably take Phillips at 4, so you're still not getting him. Sydney seem to want DGB. North seem to want Hollands. Neither need to move.
So Adelaide would need to pick Phillips at 1. Would I? I'm a Logan McDonald fan, but I would take Phillips ahead of Thilthorpe. I don't see any particular hurry for Adelaide to get good now. I'd be fine waiting and just drafting the best player there - who for me is McDonald. But absolutely if Adelaide felt that was Phillips, go get him.
Strike rate of talls has been lower at the pointy end of the draft, particularly in top-10 over the past 10 years. Be it McCartin, Schache, Wright, Boyd, Patton. Whereas mids and specifically inside mids have the highest strike rate/probability of career, and it's normally those who win a high % contested who tend to be the most likely.
Grundy was a pick 18, but before 2012 clubs were taking ruckmen too early every year and paying the price, while rookie rucks were becoming the best in the competition. Be it Cox/Sandilands/Mumford/Jacobs/Jolly and the list goes on.
There is I still believe room to take KPPs at the pointy end of the draft, but it just takes some selectiveness. eg. McCartin, Schache and Patton if I recall correctly are just a small handful of early KPPs I rated much lower than clubs did. I did a YouTUbe video a few weeks back on my success rate on KPPs and how I feel like clubs should be analysing them if they want to have a better hit rate. The video is: "The secrets behind how I select key position players better than AFL clubs and where they should go."
If interested.
I should on page 1 have a link to all my years past, and in there, there will be links at least for as long as I have written for ESPN a list containing all my phantom drafts from start to end of year. It should also have all my year before top-20s. Lots changes, which makes the risk factor with the Victorians high this year.
Just look at what happened with McDonald this year, as someone I rated inside my top-25, but just outside my top-20, then absolutely exploding this year with better WAFL League numbers across the board this year than he had in the Colts last year.
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
- 19,533
- 19,542
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Chicago Bulls
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #2,537
The theory with Campbell with the third pick is that Sydney will match the bid regardless. They have the points and are publicly committed to doing so.
If there was any chance of Campbell not being matched, no doubt Essendon would bid that first of the three picks, if he is seen as one of their top-3 at their picks, even if he was 3rd of those in their own rankings.
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
- 19,533
- 19,542
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Chicago Bulls
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #2,538
AFL Phantom Draft: Every pick, every bid:
https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ft-************-espn-full-final-phantom-draft
Bonz
🤺🤺🤺
Any chance Sydney would take McDonald instead of DGB?
If we have already committed to taking DGB I am certainly not complaining, just curious.
If we have already committed to taking DGB I am certainly not complaining, just curious.
Given the amount of uncertainty in this draft and speculation, the one constant has been Sydney being paired with G-Barras. I wonder why that is, will be interesting if that doesn’t eventuate
I cannot understand why you and others think Geelong will pick a big bodied player with two knee injuries on the same tendon? Is this just lazy ? We took a punt on Selwood and it paid off - although he is now clearly heading for a cliff with his knees. We have then been burned with great talent that we cant get on the park (Menzel, McCarthy, Cockatoo, etc). I think this is the same old narrative that Wellsy likes young champs with injuries, or are our people talking to you and indicating he is a big chance for us? Even if they are I am lost on this one.
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
- 19,533
- 19,542
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Chicago Bulls
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #2,543
It's possible I counted list positions wrongly in going through them last night. If Fremantle have to take one less, that would just mean Western moves up a spot as he'll presumably attract a bid somewhere.
In any case, I'm expecting an outside theme from Fremantle who have voiced that's what they're looking to address. And frankly it was a surprise they didn't during the trade period, but obviously have some clear targets in this draft.
It's possible. I don't have a definite answer.
I'm speculating however that DGB is #1 on Sydney's board.
Given the amount of uncertainty in this draft and speculation, the one constant has been Sydney being paired with G-Barras. I wonder why that is, will be interesting if that doesn’t eventuate
#1 on Sydney's board.. Possibly..?
We'll have to wait and see on that one. But there has been that suggestion made that he might be.
Bonz
🤺🤺🤺
Knightmare
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 22, 2010
- 19,533
- 19,542
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Chicago Bulls
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #2,545
Why Geelong? Baldwin if not for the injury would have likely been a first round pick. Geelong as a top team are in position to contend again and have the luxury of taking that chance, particularly in a part of the draft where you're taking chances regardless of who you take.
From a needs perspective, Cameron helps Geelong's key forward stocks, but Hawkins is aging, Jenkins is probably cut at the end of the year, Esava frankly needs to be shifted to become a key back as he's not looking good enough as a key forward, and I'm not sure Kreuger or Schlensog are the answers either with both untried.
The other option with Baldwin is he may also have the scope to play midfield. There were plans for him to get midfield opportunities this year, so he that would have also been interesting to watch.
Thanks, thats a bit more perspective. I am having trouble having faith on the injury front - the rest makes sense.
Hi KM, I notice your phantom is very similar to Cal Twomey's. I'm not insinuating anything untoward, I'm just wondering if you reckon you and he have the same sources, or independent sources saying similar things.
- Dec 22, 2006
- 9,718
- 11,598
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Tottenham Hotspur
Cheers just had a look now so easy to find, from 2018 April rankings November obvious exclusion is Bailey Smith and then having Riley Collier-Dawkins (6) and Curtis Taylor (11) ranked so highly. You had Walsh at 10, but the players ahead of him like Luko, Rankine, King you were still very keen on at the end of the year so probably more opinion based than a change in development/performance..
2016 & 17 look similar with most players you had ranked top 10 going top 10 just in very different orders with a couple of bolters like Tarranto and a few that must have fallen hard like Willem Drew.
In conclusion, it is slightly more risky to have high picks this year of having a complete bust but the majority of the good players should have shown themselves by now, however the order which you have picks in the top 10 is completely irrelevant because its a complete lottery.
The other question i have is, for the Vic kids how much would missing a year of footy effected their development, can you basically put a line through all of them playing senior footy in 2021 as they will need to get back up to speed with the game and then take the next step at AFL level..
- Aug 9, 2019
- 38,132
- 65,930
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Panthers, GWV Rebels, Central Augusta
Thoughts Knighta?
I like the commentary on pick 8, being “one of the best kicks we’ve seen over 2 meters”.
I understand what you’re saying there, but it did make me giggle when i read it
I understand what you’re saying there, but it did make me giggle when i read it
- Status
