Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Twomey has Luke Pedlar in play as a chance for most teams from about pick 12-15 onwards...looks like that mail might have been on the money?

I mentioned in my podcast Pedlar could be a first or second rounder. There has been some talk about that over the last week. I'm not sure he necessarily goes as high as Adelaide's first round pick which I believe Cal suggests, but there have been a few talking about GWS late first as having possible interest while Collingwood who need both forwards and midfielders I can see also considering him with one of those two first round picks if I'm to say where I think the upper end of his range probably is.

 

[master bate]

There has been serious talk for a long time about North Melbourne liking Hollands, it's just a question of to what extent and in the scenario Thilthorpe goes to Adelaide whether it's Hollands or McDonald to North.

If McDonald is there, I don't have to tell anyone he would be my pick.

I mentioned it in today's podcast, but I don't hate North Melbourne's midfield. A midfielder can be had at 11. Maybe a Powell or Perkins and they're taken, then a Bruhn or Macrae will be available.

What's curious about Cal's scenario is he has Powell to North with that second pick. With Glenn Luff the list manager - coming from Champion Data. Having North Melbourne take the highest production mid in the draft is a savant move.

Cal's phantom draft will surprise some, but it's actually a realistic representation of how things could play out. It's a good attempt.

I'd take McDonald too, but I wonder just how important having a gun key forward is compared to a star mid/forward hybrid player. North are building a nice midfield group with Simpkin and LDU, but the shine has gone from Tarryn Thomas

26

Tarryn Thomas

Age

24

Ht

190cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.7

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

3.3

5star

CL

0.9

3star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.2

4star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.8

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

0.4

3star

a bit, I do wonder if he'll be the forward/mid hybrid that he's shown flashes off or if he won't get to that level.

If we've reached the stage where Dusty/Dangerfield/Petracca type players are worth more than pretty much any key forward then you've got to go all out if you think you've got one of those types of players on the table rather than the key forward.

 

[Knightmare]

I'd take McDonald too, but I wonder just how important having a gun key forward is compared to a star mid/forward hybrid player. North are building a nice midfield group with Simpkin and LDU, but the shine has gone from Tarryn Thomas

26

Tarryn Thomas

Age

24

Ht

190cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.7

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

3.3

5star

CL

0.9

3star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.2

4star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.8

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

0.4

3star

a bit, I do wonder if he'll be the forward/mid hybrid that he's shown flashes off or if he won't get to that level.

If we've reached the stage where Dusty/Dangerfield/Petracca type players are worth more than pretty much any key forward then you've got to go all out if you think you've got one of those types of players on the table rather than the key forward.

Luff should know the success rate or lack of success of key forwards taken very early compared to mids or combo mid/fwds who can impact games. So that would play a part of the equation of North Melbourne don't go McDonald or Thilthorpe depending on who is there. No question.

 

[kickthething]

Even the order the first few are taken could still be interesting and surprising. I'm still seeing a few different scenarios playing out depending on if Adelaide take McDonald or Thilthorpe. Or whether North Melbourne take the remaining or Hollands.

I think the key is having an abbreviated draft board where you have fewer you like, but then just having your differences to separate yourself.

That makes a fair bit of sense. I really feel it's shaping up as a year where they may well be a bit of quality left behind when the draft is completed.

 

[Knightmare]

That makes a fair bit of sense. I really feel it's shaping up as a year where they may well be a bit of quality left behind when the draft is completed.

I think that's unavoidable without any NAB League this year.

I could say of Jackson Callow of my top-20 that he's no lock to get drafted. He may go late, he may go rookie. But there are those sorts of guys, and everyone should have a few uniques like that on their draft boards where there probably will be those undrafted types that people who have their own unique power rankings will be talking about with conviction as snubs.

 

[robbo1981]

I think that's unavoidable without any NAB League this year.

I could say of Jackson Callow of my top-20 that he's no lock to get drafted. He may go late, he may go rookie. But there are those sorts of guys, and everyone should have a few uniques like that on their draft boards where there probably will be those undrafted types that people who have their own unique power rankings will be talking about with conviction as snubs.

I really like Collow hope we get him or Baldwin late if 1 is available.

 

[Knightmare]

I really like Collow hope we get him or Baldwin late if 1 is available.

That's the way I've been looking all year with this draft. If I can't get a McDonald, give me a Callow or Baldwin late. And I'll find value in something else earlier.

Occasionally there are those preferences of clubs where you can identify particular types being overrated. It's like Pre-2012 how clubs overrated ruckmen for that 10-15 year period leading up to that. I'm seeing particularly in this year's draft with so little football played an incredible overenthusiasm for these athletic key position players who don't have the performances behind them to justify being taken so early.

 

[tenderwarrior]

ESPN's 2020 AFL Draft podcast: https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode/766877

*Podcast contains my updated first round phantom.

Connor Stone is a player you seem a bit surprised to hear he is being spoken about as a potential 1st round draft selection. As that medium firward type, how does he compare to Cameron Taheny from last years draft? If I remember correctly, you rated Taheny relatively highly?

 

[Knightmare]

Connor Stone is a player you seem a bit surprised to hear he is being spoken about as a potential 1st round draft selection. As that medium firward type, how does he compare to Cameron Taheny from last years draft? If I remember correctly, you rated Taheny relatively highly?

Taheny I view favourably compared to Stone. He's a more reliable marking target and better able to impact the scoreboard.

 

[M Malice]

Hi KM, are you hearing like a few others that our academy guy Blake Coleman will be bid on before our current pick 25 and who do you think is likely to bid on him?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, are you hearing like a few others that our academy guy Blake Coleman will be bid on before our current pick 25 and who do you think is likely to bid on him?

There has been a lot of talk about the Pies bidding on Coleman. And they may/may not. Might depend how the picks before them work out to determine whether he's deemed best available at one or the other of those picks.

Though if the Pies move up, Brisbane might be able to secure Coleman cleanly as the talk seems mainly to have been around a Collingwood bid.

 

[Davo-27]

Taheny I view favourably compared to Stone. He's a more reliable marking target and better able to impact the scoreboard.

its true what you say about Stones turning circle, it was why i was surprised when edps had him so high earlier this year, glad someone else recognised it.

 

[piemad1]

That's the way I've been looking all year with this draft. If I can't get a McDonald, give me a Callow or Baldwin late. And I'll find value in something else earlier.

Occasionally there are those preferences of clubs where you can identify particular types being overrated. It's like Pre-2012 how clubs overrated ruckmen for that 10-15 year period leading up to that. I'm seeing particularly in this year's draft with so little football played an incredible overenthusiasm for these athletic key position players who don't have the performances behind them to justify being taken so early.

I think baldwin is exactly what the pies need. I would like to see them bite the bullet and trade in a pick in the mid twenties and take him. They could also end up with callow later possibly, end with the two kpf we desperately need. Then hope the knees hold up.

 

[piemad1]

Even the order the first few are taken could still be interesting and surprising. I'm still seeing a few different scenarios playing out depending on if Adelaide take McDonald or Thilthorpe. Or whether North Melbourne take the remaining or Hollands.

I think the key is having an abbreviated draft board where you have fewer you like, but then just having your differences to separate yourself.

I think adelaide take mcdonald as they will see an opportunity to trade back up at 4,5 possibly 6 to land thilthorpe and get the double act.

 

[Euku]

Who do you think the dogs take at the end if the draft?most people suggesting winder, rowe,durdin, callow,highmore if they are there, any other names you think we might take ?

 

[Knightmare]

its true what you say about Stones turning circle, it was why i was surprised when edps had him so high earlier this year, glad someone else recognised it.

I can't disagree as it sounds like you're seeing what I was watching. I'll keep coming back and saying this, but his turning circle in game and on the move looks like that of a

I just can't see how someone who moves like that can be viable as a forward.

That's why I keep saying - best chance is as a running defender.

I'd really want to be a lot more certain about him both from a production and capabilities perspective and while he has had his moments where he has shown goal sense and some tricks, there are still those less good moments mixed in there also.

I think baldwin is exactly what the pies need. I would like to see them bite the bullet and trade in a pick in the mid twenties and take him. They could also end up with callow later possibly, end with the two kpf we desperately need. Then hope the knees hold up.

If the Pies go down the avenue of a trade down scenario. Where it's match on McInnes, then other picks are mid-late with an increased 2021 draft hand, that's the kind of scenario Baldwin interests me, as I'm seeing him not a lot worse than a Cox/Reid if Collingwood were to move up to one of Essendon's picks. And same with Callow late, I actually would take Callow to either of Cox/Reid based on performance.

I think adelaide take mcdonald as they will see an opportunity to trade back up at 4,5 possibly 6 to land thilthorpe and get the double act.

A trade scenario of Adelaide moving pick 1 and a future second to Hawthorn for pick 4 and Hawthorn's 2021 first round pick would be a fascinating scenario.

Adelaide can probably still get Thilthorpe at 4 and Hawthorn secure McDonald for certain at 1, who I'll assume they favour to Phillips.

Who do you think the dogs take at the end if the draft?most people suggesting winder, rowe,durdin, callow,highmore if they are there, any other names you think we might take ?

I'll be scratching my head if the Dogs take a midfielder! That's for sure.

I see the Dogs most likely going minimal draft involved. Probably just the two picks overall. Match bids on Jamarra and take one more.

Depending on availability, but if there, Rowe would make a lot of sense with the Dogs lacking a real pure crumber/ground level type who can hit the scoreboard. A Tyler Brockman or Phoenix Spicer could be alternatives if Rowe has already been taken. I'd expect it's a needs addressing pick and that's the need I see as most likely to be addressed.

 

[Mojorisin]

I can't disagree as it sounds like you're seeing what I was watching. I'll keep coming back and saying this, but his turning circle in game and on the move looks like that of a

I just can't see how someone who moves like that can be viable as a forward.

That's why I keep saying - best chance is as a running defender.

I'd really want to be a lot more certain about him both from a production and capabilities perspective and while he has had his moments where he has shown goal sense and some tricks, there are still those less good moments mixed in there also.



If the Pies go down the avenue of a trade down scenario. Where it's match on McInnes, then other picks are mid-late with an increased 2021 draft hand, that's the kind of scenario Baldwin interests me, as I'm seeing him not a lot worse than a Cox/Reid if Collingwood were to move up to one of Essendon's picks. And same with Callow late, I actually would take Callow to either of Cox/Reid based on performance.



A trade scenario of Adelaide moving pick 1 and a future second to Hawthorn for pick 4 and Hawthorn's 2021 first round pick would be a fascinating scenario.

Adelaide can probably still get Thilthorpe at 4 and Hawthorn secure McDonald for certain at 1, who I'll assume they favour to Phillips.



I'll be scratching my head if the Dogs take a midfielder! That's for sure.

I see the Dogs most likely going minimal draft involved. Probably just the two picks overall. Match bids on Jamarra and take one more.

Depending on availability, but if there, Rowe would make a lot of sense with the Dogs lacking a real pure crumber/ground level type who can hit the scoreboard. A Tyler Brockman or Phoenix Spicer could be alternatives if Rowe has already been taken. I'd expect it's a needs addressing pick and that's the need I see as most likely to be addressed.

I'd prefer someone with more defencive pressure then rowe

 

[Knightmare]

I'd prefer someone with more defencive pressure then rowe

There is always placing a bid on Rioli, but otherwise Brockman and Spicer are better bets if a higher priority is placed on forward pressure.

 

[Bateman]

Hi Knightmare, I appreciate your work, are you going to drop a final phantom before the draft tomorrow?

 

[tenderwarrior]

Hi Knightmare, I appreciate your work, are you going to drop a final phantom before the draft tomorrow?

I am not the great man, but he has said elsewhere tomorrow morning

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, I appreciate your work, are you going to drop a final phantom before the draft tomorrow?

You bet.

Full phantom draft. Every bid, every pick will be up on ESPN first thing tomorrow.

 

[THE_GUN]

What time will it drop KM

 

[Knightmare]

What time will it drop KM

I'll be sending it through tonight. What time I get it to ESPN depends how long it takes me to do all the NGA/Academy/F.S calculations which is probably what will take me the most time as tonight I'm already fairly settled on my order. Then once all that is done, order finalised, ESPN will have it, and once they have it, depends how quick the editors are.

To guess 8am-10am it might be worth refreshing espn.com.au/afl every 30min or so.
If it's not up by 10am, and it's always long to edit as it's probably approx 4000 words to go through each year, it wouldn't be far away.

 

[Bateman]

You bet.

Full phantom draft. Every bid, every pick will be up on ESPN first thing tomorrow.

 

[cairo tiger]

Link?