Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[Plugger 75]

I know that nobody would have the ability to know but just at guess you would say 7-12 would be approximate range so pick #10-#14 range

Yeah I think so but can see us being a chance to drop right off

 

[Knightmare]

Hey knightmare, just wondering who you think Fremantle will take with pick 12?

Unless Heath Chapman is available, or a Reid or Cox drop which I view as unlikely, I'm expecting Fremantle to take a medium forward. Brayden Cook and Oliver Henry are probably those two most likely. Conor Stone also possible.

Knightmare, I appreciate your work...but you’ve got to be extracting the proverbial if you’ve got Marty Gleeson/Matthew Kennedy/Connor Ballenden in the top 30.

You realise that every club had the chance to pick these guys up for absolutely zero and there’s been no interest?

Including these delisted types is why I extended my power rankings out all that way further this year. I'm looking at Ballenden, Kennedy and Gleeson as guys as I said in my delisted free agent video who I would have taken as delisted free agents, and would have been happy to spent a late pick for.

There being zero AFL interest and them not being on AFL lists is exactly why they're in my power rankings, because that's where I personally rate their them in relation to everyone else in this draft. I do believe if re-drafted they offer value.

If clubs don't rate them, that's on them, just as it is if they overlook a particular mature ager or any other draft prospect. I've been more than happy to talk up Jye Bolton as a mature age prospect for years with the knowledge that no particular club is looking at him all that closely. But I keep including him because I know he can play.

I'm not so fussed by where clubs rate them. My power rankings is where I personally rate them. They're different things. The relevance of knowing how clubs rate particular players is more relevant in knowing what pick you would need to acquire them.

Biggest one I disagree with you on here is poulter, I have him in my top 20 and am quite bullish on him, think he has what it takes to become that prototype big body mid

Poulter I was high on and he has the height, good athlete, can go forward.

I'm just not sure enough on his contested ball winning and first possession winning how that will look at the next level. Seeing some of him in that All-Stars game and reviewing some other game tape, I found him dare I say, looking passive. He just doesn't seem like the kind of aggressive contested ball winner I had hoped and looks a lot more outside than I'd like.

I can't any longer justify him as a first round pick. Second round, maybe he's developable, but he's not someone I'd overpay for. He's more someone you hope comes good than know beyond doubt will be.

I'm just not sure where his best position will be. Inside game will need to improve quite a bit if he wants that to come along. At the moment he's looking more like a hf/wing until he really improves the contested side to his game.

He was at 13 in his rankings in September, a fair drop

Poulter and O'Driscoll were the two big drops. Davies another decent drop. They were the three to drop out of my top-20.

Poulter and O'Driscoll are cases of just not being sure they have a best position they'll be clear best-22 players in, at the next level. O'Driscoll's decision making and ball use under pressure saw him drop, but seeing how much he seems to be growing, looking almost KPP height, is all that kept him from dropping even more than Poulter. Can either of those guys be good enough to become those taller, ball winning mids at the next level? Poulter I worry that he won't quite become that level of ball winner. O'Driscoll seeing him pressured and how much he struggles when the heat is applied, I'm not confident enough on either.

Good to see you rate Highmore. I'd love him to end up at the Dogs.

I've liked him for a few years and probably mentioned him in some of my weekly wraps in years past as one of the better NEAFL performers from back in his Canberra days. I think late draft he is worth a pick for a team needing another able component in defence who can intercept and rebound a bit.

 

[Mojorisin]

Unless Heath Chapman is available, or a Reid or Cox drop which I view as unlikely, I'm expecting Fremantle to take a medium forward. Brayden Cook and Oliver Henry are probably those two most likely. Conor Stone also possible.



Including these delisted types is why I extended my power rankings out all that way further this year. I'm looking at Ballenden, Kennedy and Gleeson as guys as I said in my delisted free agent video who I would have taken as delisted free agents, and would have been happy to spent a late pick for.

There being zero AFL interest and them not being on AFL lists is exactly why they're in my power rankings, because that's where I personally rate their them in relation to everyone else in this draft. I do believe if re-drafted they offer value.

If clubs don't rate them, that's on them, just as it is if they overlook a particular mature ager or any other draft prospect. I've been more than happy to talk up Jye Bolton as a mature age prospect for years with the knowledge that no particular club is looking at him all that closely. But I keep including him because I know he can play.

I'm not so fussed by where clubs rate them. My power rankings is where I personally rate them. They're different things. The relevance of knowing how clubs rate particular players is more relevant in knowing what pick you would need to acquire them.



Poulter I was high on and he has the height, good athlete, can go forward.

I'm just not sure enough on his contested ball winning and first possession winning how that will look at the next level. Seeing some of him in that All-Stars game and reviewing some other game tape, I found him dare I say, looking passive. He just doesn't seem like the kind of aggressive contested ball winner I had hoped and looks a lot more outside than I'd like.

I can't any longer justify him as a first round pick. Second round, maybe he's developable, but he's not someone I'd overpay for. He's more someone you hope comes good than know beyond doubt will be.

I'm just not sure where his best position will be. Inside game will need to improve quite a bit if he wants that to come along. At the moment he's looking more like a hf/wing until he really improves the contested side to his game.



Poulter and O'Driscoll were the two big drops. Davies another decent drop. They were the three to drop out of my top-20.

Poulter and O'Driscoll are cases of just not being sure they have a best position they'll be clear best-22 players in, at the next level. O'Driscoll's decision making and ball use under pressure saw him drop, but seeing how much he seems to be growing, looking almost KPP height, is all that kept him from dropping even more than Poulter. Can either of those guys be good enough to become those taller, ball winning mids at the next level? Poulter I worry that he won't quite become that level of ball winner. O'Driscoll seeing him pressured and how much he struggles when the heat is applied, I'm not confident enough on either.



I've liked him for a few years and probably mentioned him in some of my weekly wraps in years past as one of the better NEAFL performers from back in his Canberra days. I think late draft he is worth a pick for a team needing another able component in defence who can intercept and rebound a bit.

O'driscoll has dropped on my board throughout the year aswell.
As I've said before I enjoy reading your opinions simply for the fact that you back yourself in rather then play things conservitivly, something I also like to do with my ranking. Somethings you get right others you get wrong but you own both. We will have to re-assess poulter in a years time and then again in 3-4 years to see who was correct

 

[Knightmare]

O'driscoll has dropped on my board throughout the year aswell.
As I've said before I enjoy reading your opinions simply for the fact that you back yourself in rather then play things conservitivly, something I also like to do with my ranking. Somethings you get right others you get wrong but you own both. We will have to re-assess poulter in a years time and then again in 3-4 years to see who was correct

Poulter is a long term play.

I'd be surprised to see him in year 1, but as a taller type, reassess after 3-4 years as you say to see where he is at. That's the only way to judge those 190cm+ types. That's all we can do.

I class him in my possible long-term best 22 category, so he could make it and I wouldn't be surprised if he did. I'm just not personally betting on him.

 

[Warwick]

I know it’s your opinion and everyone has the absolute right to one - especially someone who watches as much underaged footy as you do, but...

if blokes like Ballenden and Gleeson are rated as top 30 talent in this draft, I’m glad we’ve traded mostly out of it.

 

[Knightmare]

I know it’s your opinion and everyone has the absolute right to one - especially someone who watches as much underaged footy as you do, but...

if blokes like Ballenden and Gleeson are rated as top 30 talent in this draft, I’m glad we’ve traded mostly out of it.

That's part of the point.

It's no super draft this year.

The top-5 is solid. The first round is capable.

But there is a lot of speculation and guys you just hope come good. And without seeing the Victorian's this year, it's a lot of betting. There are guys out the back end of the draft who can make the grade, it's just speculating on which guys with the probability of career on those rated after those delisted types not all that high.

 

[Warwick]

That's part of the point.

It's no super draft this year.

The top-5 is solid. The first round is capable.

But there is a lot of speculation and guys you just hope come good. And without seeing the Victorian's this year, it's a lot of betting. There are guys out the back end of the draft who can make the grade, it's just speculating on which guys with the probability of career on those rated after those delisted types not all that high.

Yep fair point.

Not having a go. Feel it’s a good year to have a settled list with minimal vacancies. That being said, with the great unknown, surely there’s going to be some massive bargains that were taken late when we look back in 5 years time.

 

[Knightmare]

Yep fair point.

Not having a go. Feel it’s a good year to have a settled list with minimal vacancies. That being said, with the great unknown, surely there’s going to be some massive bargains that were taken late when we look back in 5 years time.

There is opportunity for some late or rookie draft bargains for those who have scouted well.

Based on most draft boards, there should be some at least if you're fair dinkum about putting together a power rankings that doesn't look like a phantom draft, there should be some late/rookie draft available that you like.

It's just one of those drafts where clubs in say the second round will have a higher than usual miss rate I'm anticipating.

It's more for me a year where I felt like the opportunities were historic opportunities through the trade/free agency and even delisted free agency periods, whereas, as a draft, it's a year I'd go fairly light. And the delisted types are more your situational types where there are suitable need fillers out there.

 

[manny100]

Hi KM, If a team was trying to copy the tigers and go for very pacey team orientated players who would be considered - back/forward/mid.
Who would be considered for outside pace, skill and clean disposal for the Dees.
There is no reason to believe that there will not be a similar number of players who are AFL capable as most other years in this draft. Its just the opportunity to show it has been limited due to COVID. I think the Dees picks at 18,19 and 28 could with luck take advantage of this lack of exposure and pick up a player(s) who have slipped. This is the year for the Recruiters with big balls who are willing to back their judgement and experience.
I have not posted for quite a while but have been following your ESPN work which is Top Quality.

 

[Gavin Excell]

That's part of the point.

It's no super draft this year.

The top-5 is solid. The first round is capable.

But there is a lot of speculation and guys you just hope come good. And without seeing the Victorian's this year, it's a lot of betting. There are guys out the back end of the draft who can make the grade, it's just speculating on which guys with the probability of career on those rated after those delisted types not all that high.

Given the impacts C19 in Vic and the unknown, do you think clubs will avoid picking Vic based players?

 

[Gavin Excell]

There is opportunity for some late or rookie draft bargains for those who have scouted well.

Based on most draft boards, there should be some at least if you're fair dinkum about putting together a power rankings that doesn't look like a phantom draft, there should be some late/rookie draft available that you like.

It's just one of those drafts where clubs in say the second round will have a higher than usual miss rate I'm anticipating.

It's more for me a year where I felt like the opportunities were historic opportunities through the trade/free agency and even delisted free agency periods, whereas, as a draft, it's a year I'd go fairly light. And the delisted types are more your situational types where there are suitable need fillers out there.

This .makes me feel better about Geelong giving up its drafts picks to get J Cameron

 

[fortunatecrow]

This .makes me feel better about Geelong giving up its drafts picks to get J Cameron

I reckon there's a fair argument that Geelong didn't give up anywhere near as much as the headline "Three first-rounders" implies. Closer to 1 first rounder plus two pick slides. But pick slides into a draft that is expected to be stronger and (assuming no COVID) will allow selection based on exposed form not guesses as will be required for Victorian kids this year.

 

[SplintWhisky]

How big is the talk that the tigers are going to trade off their first pick for extra picks this year or next year? Would think that we need to take at least a tall to start to develop.

 

[Chioli]

I reckon there's a fair argument that Geelong didn't give up anywhere near as much as the headline "Three first-rounders" implies. Closer to 1 first rounder plus two pick slides. But pick slides into a draft that is expected to be stronger and (assuming no COVID) will allow selection passed on exposed form not guesses as will be required for Victorian kids this year.

Agree with this. The mid season draft is going to dilute next years draft though. Smart clubs are keeping a spot for the best performed kids that nominate this year and then miss out. Surely that will have 5-6 kids that mature and if were in 2021 draft that would have been inside the first 2 rounds

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, If a team was trying to copy the tigers and go for very pacey team orientated players who would be considered - back/forward/mid.
Who would be considered for outside pace, skill and clean disposal for the Dees.
There is no reason to believe that there will not be a similar number of players who are AFL capable as most other years in this draft. Its just the opportunity to show it has been limited due to COVID. I think the Dees picks at 18,19 and 28 could with luck take advantage of this lack of exposure and pick up a player(s) who have slipped. This is the year for the Recruiters with big balls who are willing to back their judgement and experience.
I have not posted for quite a while but have been following your ESPN work which is Top Quality.

Not often you get all of that in one package, or at least not easily and often.

Based on the types that gets you excited by what you're saying the likes of Blake Coleman (Brisbane Academy), Brandon Walker (Fremantle Academy) and Isiah Winder are types who could fit those categories as a fwd, def and utility respectively who may later development scope to become a mid. With all the attributes, while you're taking a risk as his numbers were only so-so last year, Zavier Maher at 18/19 if a statement towards wanting a mid with those attributes, and maybe he's there at 28. 20-35 is his rough range.

Coleman will be matched after Collingwood likely bid on him, Walker should be matched by Fremantle but Winder should be available and is a nice fit. Jack Ginnivan can play and maybe at 28, while he probably doesn't go that high again has the utility value across a number of lines. Maybe a Carroll or Cook could be had with one of those earlier picks if they slide through. Sam Berry people continue to fail to mention and should talk about more and is a seriously good mid.

They're some players Melbourne should be thinking about if going the attribute route and want guys with pace who can be pieces and bring pace + more to the table.

Given the impacts C19 in Vic and the unknown, do you think clubs will avoid picking Vic based players?

I wouldn't say avoid, as much as some clubs may have revised some players down on their draft boards. Ultimately how you rate the Victorian's depends on how you speculate they should be going.

This .makes me feel better about Geelong giving up its drafts picks to get J Cameron

Geelong did great with the Cameron trade. The future seconds gained carry very handy utility value for 2021.

I reckon there's a fair argument that Geelong didn't give up anywhere near as much as the headline "Three first-rounders" implies. Closer to 1 first rounder plus two pick slides. But pick slides into a draft that is expected to be stronger and (assuming no COVID) will allow selection passed on exposed form not guesses as will be required for Victorian kids this year.

This is precisely why I said at the time that Geelong paid fair value for Cameron. Paying three first rounders sounds like a lot, but the two second round picks for 2021 gained aren't worth much less than those late first round picks.

How big is the talk that the tigers are going to trade off their first pick for extra picks this year or next year? Would think that we need to take at least a tall to start to develop.

Talls at 17 are uninspiring. Late draft is where I'd be recommending Richmond take talls. Callow should be available late. Baldwin could be there late second round.

I see Richmond exploring their options if not satisfied with options at 17 and talking about a trade if there is something suitable. Some have connected Matt Allison to Richmond with their first pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was there at the second pick.

 

[kickthething]

I wouldn't say avoid, as much as some clubs may have revised some players down on their draft boards. Ultimately how you rate the Victorian's depends on how you speculate they should be going.

You can argue some have been elevated as well. The impacts of Covid and this draft will be told in the next 2 years of course, and maybe even as soon as the 2020 Mid Year draft if play is underway as normal. There are so many variances in this draft because of no NAB/APS footy. Are interstaters unrealistically elevated due to playing, the Vic clubs with NGA prospects are they benefitting or not due to no footy? This is touted ats the most compromised draft ever, Covid may well have flattened it out a bit.

Good recruiters should come to the fore this year. Wednesday will be fascinating once we go beyond pick 5 or 6.

 

[Knightmare]

You can argue some have been elevated as well. The impacts of Covid and this draft will be told in the next 2 years of course, and maybe even as soon as the 2020 Mid Year draft if play is underway as normal. There are so many variances in this draft because of no NAB/APS footy. Are interstaters unrealistically elevated due to playing, the Vic clubs with NGA prospects are they benefitting or not due to no footy? This is touted ats the most compromised draft ever, Covid may well have flattened it out a bit.

Good recruiters should come to the fore this year. Wednesday will be fascinating once we go beyond pick 5 or 6.

Even the order the first few are taken could still be interesting and surprising. I'm still seeing a few different scenarios playing out depending on if Adelaide take McDonald or Thilthorpe. Or whether North Melbourne take the remaining or Hollands.

I think the key is having an abbreviated draft board where you have fewer you like, but then just having your differences to separate yourself.

 

[Knightmare]

ESPN's 2020 AFL Draft podcast: https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode/766877

*Podcast contains my updated first round phantom.

 

[Wild Bill]

Cal Twoomeys mock draft was interesting. McDonald at 5 and Perkins at 16 were big surprises.

 

[Knightmare]

Cal Twoomeys mock draft was interesting. McDonald at 5 and Perkins at 16 were big surprises.

Sydney are solid on DGB. But that Adelaide pick could be Logan/Riley. North could take the leftover or Hollands.

It's surprising North Melbourne would pass, but they may have more faith in Larkey and Comben than I have.

It seems like the assumption on Perkins is that if Essendon don't take him, the other clubs between there and Collingwood may favour others.

 

[Wild Bill]

Sydney are solid on DGB. But that Adelaide pick could be Logan/Riley. North could take the leftover or Hollands.

It's surprising North Melbourne would pass, but they may have more faith in Larkey and Comben than I have.

It seems like the assumption on Perkins is that if Essendon don't take him, the other clubs between there and Collingwood may favour others.

I really hope we take McDonald at 2 if the Crows don’t. Holland’s is a good runner up prize however but I like the thought of McDonald and Larkey going forward. Especially looking ahead to 2021 and the mids at the top end.

 

[blueiris]

I really hope we take McDonald at 2 if the Crows don’t. Holland’s is a good runner up prize however but I like the thought of McDonald and Larkey going forward. Especially looking ahead to 2021 and the mids at the top end.

Agree the talls at the top look so much better this year and the midfielders next year look so much better than this year

 

[Mojorisin]

Agree the talls at the top look so much better this year and the midfielders next year look so much better than this year

It's a tall midfielders draft next year. Grab the talls early and small forwards late in this draft.

 

[Knightmare]

I really hope we take McDonald at 2 if the Crows don’t. Holland’s is a good runner up prize however but I like the thought of McDonald and Larkey going forward. Especially looking ahead to 2021 and the mids at the top end.

There has been serious talk for a long time about North Melbourne liking Hollands, it's just a question of to what extent and in the scenario Thilthorpe goes to Adelaide whether it's Hollands or McDonald to North.

If McDonald is there, I don't have to tell anyone he would be my pick.

I mentioned it in today's podcast, but I don't hate North Melbourne's midfield. A midfielder can be had at 11. Maybe a Powell or Perkins and they're taken, then a Bruhn or Macrae will be available.

What's curious about Cal's scenario is he has Powell to North with that second pick. With Glenn Luff the list manager - coming from Champion Data. Having North Melbourne take the highest production mid in the draft is a savant move.

Cal's phantom draft will surprise some, but it's actually a realistic representation of how things could play out. It's a good attempt.

 

[Mutineer]

There has been serious talk for a long time about North Melbourne liking Hollands, it's just a question of to what extent and in the scenario Thilthorpe goes to Adelaide whether it's Hollands or McDonald to North.

If McDonald is there, I don't have to tell anyone he would be my pick.

I mentioned it in today's podcast, but I don't hate North Melbourne's midfield. A midfielder can be had at 11. Maybe a Powell or Perkins and they're taken, then a Bruhn or Macrae will be available.

What's curious about Cal's scenario is he has Powell to North with that second pick. With Glenn Luff the list manager - coming from Champion Data. Having North Melbourne take the highest production mid in the draft is a savant move.

Cal's phantom draft will surprise some, but it's actually a realistic representation of how things could play out. It's a good attempt.

Twomey has Luke Pedlar in play as a chance for most teams from about pick 12-15 onwards...looks like that mail might have been on the money?