Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2010 Mock Draft

[whatboutbob]

Where is Reece Conca??? We are confirmed to be taking him at 6 and you do not even have him in your top 50!!!

Errmm...you may wanna read it again...

 

[Knightmare]

Where is Reece Conca??? We are confirmed to be taking him at 6 and you do not even have him in your top 50!!!

I have Conca in my top 20 based on quality.

Expect Conca to be taken by Richmond at 6. Might want to take another look.

 

[krayfesh]

Geez, Cook and Mitchell slipped a bit in your new draft, Knightmare.

Especially Cook, who I rate very highly. If he was available at Carlton's 34, I would die.

 

[Knightmare]

Geez, Cook and Mitchell slipped a bit in your new draft, Knightmare.

Especially Cook, who I rate very highly. If he was available at Carlton's 34, I would die.

He was rated very high early but he is one I'm just not quite sold on.

Generally considered a boarderline 1st-2nd round type but for KPPs I only really rate the very top bracket then really dismiss the next lot.

Really regret not having Carlisle and A.Black last year in the 20s. That's where I rated them so I shouldn't have deviated even for those clubs with the perceived needs.

Cook is generally considered to be inside of that top 35 group but I'm just not quite sold and doesn't quite seem to have the standout talent I look for in KPPs. Personally class him with Mitchell, Gordon, Grenfell and Walker who are all ok KPPs, but don't rate them quite as high as the other bunch, more mid draft type guys for mine based on quality. Rather than with Lynch, Darling, Watson, McCarthy and B.Brown (who probably won't get drafted but personally rate him with this top bracket and view as a top 35 guy based on talent).

Why the others stand out: Lynch has the Riewoldtness in that he can really run his opponents off their legs because until not very long ago he was a midfielder until his late growth spurt.
Darling stands out because of the physicality he plays with and agreessiveness we see in Jonathan Brown.
Watson because he can rebound the ball from defense like Brian Lake and physically beat his man.

Then in the next group are:
McCarthy because he is an athletic talent just gets the nod in this top group, could with a bit of luck develop into something close to Collingwood's Ben Reid.
And Ben Brown who probably won't get drafted due to injury but for a forward/ruckman he has unbelieveable co-ordination below the knees and for someone his height is a very, very talented kid.

Cook is strong on the lead, athletic and a great goal kicker, but just doesn't have that feature that screams potential star that those I rate more highly do. Really needs to get allot stronger and I think he might struggle a little physically at the next level. So I'm going to stick him lower and see what happens. Anywhere from 30 he isn't a bad selection and is certainly worth careful consideration at 34 if available, but I'm just not quite sold and it wouldn't shock me if he did slide. Luke Mitchell same.

 

[Balony_pony16]

I don't see how heppell could slip so far in the space of a week. I think the talk of the lions looking at taking polec is just a smoke screen in trying to unsettle the eagles into picking polec so they can snag gaff. If it doesn't work at least they will get heppell who will bring a lot to the den.

Even heppell laugh off the suggestion that he has groin problems based on him having oP 2 years ago

 

[Balony_pony16]

Also, if the lions do pick polec I think they have stuffed up their draft upgrade with the Brennan trade. Remember they had the option to trade Brennan for pick 9-15 giving them 2 selections inside 15. Here they could of picked smith who is very very similar to polec and out played him in sanfl at times.

I just worry that the lions will pass on a player who plays with real composure and can hit targets at a elite level by foot. That is what the lions need

 

[Knightmare]

I don't see how heppell could slip so far in the space of a week. I think the talk of the lions looking at taking polec is just a smoke screen in trying to unsettle the eagles into picking polec so they can snag gaff. If it doesn't work at least they will get heppell who will bring a lot to the den.

Even heppell laugh off the suggestion that he has groin problems based on him having oP 2 years ago

It will be interesting and you are right on Heppell in that he didn't even know about it. I think he will be a great talent, but it wouldn't shock me if he did slide as far as 13. Richmond are taking Conca. Then the Gold Coast don't really have a great need for Heppell and seem to be interested in: Conca, Prestia, Lynch, Tape, Caddy and Pitt as well as Gorringe. So he is now not so simple to place and he could go anywhere in that 7-13 range realistically. But represents outstanding value in that range and on quality is a top 5 guy really. It wouldn't shock me to see him show up a couple of teams who passed on him.

Also, if the lions do pick polec I think they have stuffed up their draft upgrade with the Brennan trade. Remember they had the option to trade Brennan for pick 9-15 giving them 2 selections inside 15. Here they could of picked smith who is very very similar to polec and out played him in sanfl at times.

I just worry that the lions will pass on a player who plays with real composure and can hit targets at a elite level by foot. That is what the lions need

At the time I thought it was terrible because I didn't see much difference between 5 and 10. But having said that I think it might prove to be a really good move because I think Polec with time at 5 will be a star and I wouldn't be surprised to see two of 25, 28 and 32 develop into very, very good players because that whole top 35 is just so even that at 32 you could get someone as good as the Gold Coast take at 10.

In a direct comparison between Heppell and Polec. I think Heppell will have the more immediate impact and possibly be if not one of the best Non Gold Coast top 3/ preselection. But I think Polec will have a very, very good career and right now based on some of the attributes he has I'm favouring him long term to develop into the better of the pair. But not a whole lot in it and both should develop into wonderful AFL players.

 

[dlanod]

It will be interesting and you are right on Heppell in that he didn't even know about it. I think he will be a great talent, but it wouldn't shock me if he did slide as far as 13. Richmond are taking Conca. Then the Gold Coast don't really have a great need for Heppell and seem to be interested in: Conca, Prestia, Lynch, Tape, Caddy and Pitt as well as Gorringe. So he is now not so simple to place and he could go anywhere in that 7-13 range realistically. But represents outstanding value in that range and on quality is a top 5 guy really. It wouldn't shock me to see him show up a couple of teams who passed on him.

Best analysis I've seen on why Heppell gets taken at 5 or not until 12 or 14. The first four picks sound very much set. If the Gold Coast aren't keen on him, that's picks 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13 out. Richmond seem keen on Conca and Essendon on Atley, that's picks 6 and 8. If only four clubs choose to pass on him (Lions, GC, Richmond and Essendon), he's already dropped seven spots to 12.

 

[NAUGHT5]

I cant see him sliding past 11.

When clubs are reported to be not so keen then you can usually rule them out of contention. But the GC have 3 picks at 9,10,11.

So they'll be able to get 2 of the guys they are keen on and then add another top 5 quality player in Heppell.

Thank f*ck it's almost here.

 

[Knightmare]

I cant see him sliding past 11.

When clubs are reported to be not so keen then you can usually rule them out of contention. But the GC have 3 picks at 9,10,11.

So they'll be able to get 2 of the guys they are keen on and then add another top 5 quality player in Heppell.

Thank f*ck it's almost here.

From what I'm hearing GCS are very keen on: Prestia, Tape, Lynch, Gorringe, McCarthy and Pitt. Haven't heard any mention of Heppell or Atley. So there is the chance that Heppell falls as far as 13 and Atley as far as 12 or possibly even 16 if you believe the media.

Atley I think is in the same boat as Heppell and could also find himself going lower than he should and also possibly after pick 11. No certainly, but entirely possible. Melbourne in particular will be licking their lips about the possibility of one or possibly both of Heppell and Atley being available.

Right now I have Heppell as 7-13 and Atley in the 7-16 range. So anything in that draft range is entirely possible for the pair.
Gorringe might be another who GCS might say no to if they decide they don't want another ruckman.

There will be sliders. That I have no doubt.

 

[db26]

Hi there mate love your draft read whats your view on the tigers picks thanks???

 

[Knightmare]

Hi there mate love your draft read whats your view on the tigers picks thanks???

I really liked the Richmond draft last year but this year not quite as much. Some interesting selections and probably took a couple a little earlier than expected it is fair to say.

Reece Conca will be the one talked about most of this years crop from Richmond. I think many really under rate him and I think he will prove to be a very nice all rounder and nice addition to the midfield, but his other strength is that he can play anywhere pretty well. I have him as a top 20 guy which doesn't sound great for pick 6 overall, but with so little to seperate the players I don't think Conca will be a bad selection at all and should prove to be a nice fit for Richmond. Should play some games from season 1, but might take a couple of games till he breaks into the senior side.

Jake Batchelor at 30 is a really interesting one and many had him going later in their drafts. Have heard Collingwood would have taken him at 60 if available. Nice back flanker with a really nice game and on bigfooty I feel again is under rated. I had him more of a mid draft prospect but showed notable improvement during the season and I think he might be able to generate some drive from defence. Don't think he will play from season 1, but from season 2 he will start to push for selection.

Helbig I'm not really familiar with and wasn't on my radar at all. But looks like a goal kicking inside mid with nice skills. Bit of a smokie.

Derickx also wasn't on my radar but is a mature age ruckman. I expect there because Simmonds retired that Richmond are looking to bring in a mature ruckman to help out the other young ruckman with the load while they develop.

MacDonald is a forward Collingwood were apparently very keen on late. Big bodied kid who had a productive season for Gippsland Power and kicked 40+ goals for the season. Good kick. Strong overhead.


The only player I am willing to say of this group who will make it is Reece Conca. Then Jake Batchelor I think has the potential to also be a nice pick. MacDonald might play a couple of games at some point, but not super confident. Helbig I haven't really seen enough of but again I'm not super confident. Then Derickx is really a short term ruck option who can plug the gap if he needs to.

All up I really can't say it is a draft I really like for Richmond. But those who say "Conca is a bad selection early" shouldn't because he will be a wonderful player for Richmond who I think will have a very long career.

 

[Quigley]

I think most people who have seen a bit of Conca think he will be a solid player. Not too many doubt that he will play AFL football and probably do it pretty well. The question with him for me is his ceiling. I see him being a average to above average player but struggle to see him being a good to elite player. I think Richmond played it safe at 6 and when you haven't been in the finals for so many years I found this surprising. You have a solid foundation in place I would have swung for the fences and gone with a guy who could be elite.

BTW Knightmare I don't think I have commented on your mock but nice job. Always a good read.

 

[Knightmare]

I think most people who have seen a bit of Conca think he will be a solid player. Not too many doubt that he will play AFL football and probably do it pretty well. The question with him for me is his ceiling. I see him being a average to above average player but struggle to see him being a good to elite player. I think Richmond played it safe at 6 and when you haven't been in the finals for so many years I found this surprising. You have a solid foundation in place I would have swung for the fences and gone with a guy who could be elite.

BTW Knightmare I don't think I have commented on your mock but nice job. Always a good read.

Yeah Conca is a great all rounder but he doesn't have that standout feature pointing to him developing into an out and out star. Probably would have gone with Heppell/Lynch myself, even Jacobs I felt while not rated as highly by most also could have been worth looking at.

Cheers Quigley. From you that's a seriously compliment. Really enjoy you're work and the detail you go into is unbelieveable and the best on this site. It's great because you don't pick just based on where you think players will go, but what you think of them which is the way to do it.

Look forward to your work again next year and look forward to seeing a couple of more different names early again.

 

[db26]

I really liked the Richmond draft last year but this year not quite as much. Some interesting selections and probably took a couple a little earlier than expected it is fair to say.

Reece Conca will be the one talked about most of this years crop from Richmond. I think many really under rate him and I think he will prove to be a very nice all rounder and nice addition to the midfield, but his other strength is that he can play anywhere pretty well. I have him as a top 20 guy which doesn't sound great for pick 6 overall, but with so little to seperate the players I don't think Conca will be a bad selection at all and should prove to be a nice fit for Richmond. Should play some games from season 1, but might take a couple of games till he breaks into the senior side.

Jake Batchelor at 30 is a really interesting one and many had him going later in their drafts. Have heard Collingwood would have taken him at 60 if available. Nice back flanker with a really nice game and on bigfooty I feel again is under rated. I had him more of a mid draft prospect but showed notable improvement during the season and I think he might be able to generate some drive from defence. Don't think he will play from season 1, but from season 2 he will start to push for selection.

Helbig I'm not really familiar with and wasn't on my radar at all. But looks like a goal kicking inside mid with nice skills. Bit of a smokie.

Derickx also wasn't on my radar but is a mature age ruckman. I expect there because Simmonds retired that Richmond are looking to bring in a mature ruckman to help out the other young ruckman with the load while they develop.

MacDonald is a forward Collingwood were apparently very keen on late. Big bodied kid who had a productive season for Gippsland Power and kicked 40+ goals for the season. Good kick. Strong overhead.


The only player I am willing to say of this group who will make it is Reece Conca. Then Jake Batchelor I think has the potential to also be a nice pick. MacDonald might play a couple of games at some point, but not super confident. Helbig I haven't really seen enough of but again I'm not super confident. Then Derickx is really a short term ruck option who can plug the gap if he needs to.

All up I really can't say it is a draft I really like for Richmond. But those who say "Conca is a bad selection early" shouldn't because he will be a wonderful player for Richmond who I think will have a very long career.

Thanks for the input.I agree strange draft for us ,but honestly love the kook of Conca as someone said he's not a star in one area but excellent in everything.

Jake Batchelor is a interesting one people say he is a Hary Obrien type or Sam Gilbert type who loves to run and create which is very handy in these time of footy.

MacDonald what I have read is that is great when his up and goes missing..Good kick and strong mark.


I thought a few KP players didnt get picked up woth taking Josh Walker ,Gordon etc who else? I reckon we will rooke a few KP.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the input.I agree strange draft for us ,but honestly love the kook of Conca as someone said he's not a star in one area but excellent in everything.

Jake Batchelor is a interesting one people say he is a Hary Obrien type or Sam Gilbert type who loves to run and create which is very handy in these time of footy.

MacDonald what I have read is that is great when his up and goes missing..Good kick and strong mark.


I thought a few KP players didnt get picked up woth taking Josh Walker ,Gordon etc who else? I reckon we will rooke a few KP.

Conca is a guy who I think once he pulls on the yellow and black will become a fan favourite. Don't think he will be the best kid to come out of this draft, but I don't think he will be a poor selection either.

Walker and Gordon are amongst those who should go in the rookie draft. Barden and Grenfell could also be added to that list as those who should go in the rookie draft.

My personal favourite is Ben Brown of Tasmania. Doubt he will get drafted but the kid is talented enough to have been a 2nd rounder had he not been hit by injury during the champs. Really hope a team takes a chance on him because the talent is there. Along with Grenfell a KPF/Ruckman.

Would be disappointed to see any of these slip through the rookie draft. All deserve to be on a list.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Hey knight, any chance you can do a review of the lions picks. At first I and most people thought they weren't the strongest selections, but it seems the lions got exactly who they were after...interested in seeing your take on the lions draft

 

[jet66]

hey knightmare, thoughts on Jamie Cripps? a bargain or overpriced at pick 24?? According to Ross Lyon he may play next year, interested in you thoughts on this?? thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Hey knight, any chance you can do a review of the lions picks. At first I and most people thought they weren't the strongest selections, but it seems the lions got exactly who they were after...interested in seeing your take on the lions draft

Polec at 5 I think will be a really good selection. Might not have the immediate impact of Heppell or Jacobs, but I think long term he could prove to be one of the best players to come from this draft, there is just so much to work with. Will be a fantastic midfielder who will really hurt teams.

A few will be critical of Karnezis selection but I don't mind it, I think he will be quite a reasonable player. Might play a little more immediately than some predict and think he might get a couple of games in season 1 as a high half forward.

Lester I feel might have been a bit early but at the same time, but with that said I think he has gone off the radar allot on bigfooty. My initial impressions were that he would be a 2nd rounder until a number of players seemed to shoot up the rankings. Probably worth a late 2nd - early 3rd round, but a reasonable flanker who from season 2 might push for a spot.

Green at 32 I think like Harwood will be another midfield beauty and Brisbane have a knack for finding some red headed beauties don't they? Will be handy in the midfield and up forward, again might play a couple of games in season 1 because he could be rotated between the midfield and forwardline.

Polec is the clear standout of this group and I think he will be a star. Some of the following selections were possibly paying slightly overs, but Karnezis in particular I think might surprise a couple. Not a bad draft overall but I thought there were a couple of players Brisbane might be sorry to have missed out on considering there were still a few serious catches left, Darling in particular a notable who I think looked like an ideal Jonathan Brown replacement.

hey knightmare, thoughts on Jamie Cripps? a bargain or overpriced at pick 24?? According to Ross Lyon he may play next year, interested in you thoughts on this?? thanks

I found Ross' comments on Cripps to be very interesting. I certainly think he can play and prove to be quite a reasonable pick. Drafted in around the right position for mine. Not a bargain but not paying overs.

I haven't been a huge fan of St Kilda's recent drafting, taking some players way too early and some of the recycled players who have been recently taken have been truely cringe worthy. But some of those have worked out and the player development at the club has been good enough to get the best out of a couple of players no one really thought would be any good.

But with that said I think Cripps might be one of the calls St Kilda have right. Cripps really had a great 2nd half to the season and have heard some very, very good reports with a couple with similar observations.

I'm not going to guarantee he plays early but I wouldn't put it past him to push into the side at some point in season one if he can put together some nice form at VFL level early.

 

[jet66]

thanks knightmare, love ur work.

 

[db26]

Zac Fitzgerald is a good KPP i thought was unlucky to get drafted has alot of talent.

 

[Knightmare]

Zac Fitzgerald is a good KPP i thought was unlucky to get drafted has alot of talent.

Has had his injury troubles but did feel he was a good chance. I think he will certainly be a very good chance to get rookied.

There were a fair few other talls I felt were very stiff to miss also. J.Walker, T.Gordon and Ben Brown were amongst the more talented talls.

 

[db26]

How do you rate Darcy Barden???

 

[Knightmare]

How do you rate Darcy Barden???

I didn't expect him to go in the national draft but had a fantastic season.

Would be shocked if he didn't get a chance as a rookie. Really clever big bodied fella with a nice work rate who really seems to want it.

For mine would be amongst the top 5 KPPs remaining.

 

[Caj]

Love your work Knightmare, your analysis has been fantastic for those of us who know little about the youngsters.

Would love to hear your thoughts on the Swan's picks