Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[tigs2010]

Don't worry too much. Everyone else on our board is. Footy Tragic as well with all of our picks in his top 15.

So far so good. Hard to have asked for a better start to this years draft group. Acres looking pretty special in his first 2 games of VFL too.

I reckon the first 4 you took were all in my top 15. Or very, very close to it.

 

[Knightmare]

Don't worry too much. Everyone else on our board is. Footy Tragic as well with all of our picks in his top 15.

So far so good. Hard to have asked for a better start to this years draft group. Acres looking pretty special in his first 2 games of VFL too.

Acres certainly has the talent. If he can stay healthy and puts the work into his game then I wouldn't be shocked to see him become the best of St Kilda's picks this year.

A bit like with Macrae for the Dogs, Acres similarly feels like someone who has real scope to develop and develop rapidly once he receives games and he gets a full preseason into him as one of those guys who just has all the tools at his disposals.

 

[aussierulesrules]

So, do you have any more Jack Billings' lying around for us this year?

Makes such a huge difference when you get someone like him come in and just hit everyone lace-out with every one of his kicks, including over distance and to also have the vision to spot them in the first place. We were starting to look very slightly Hawthorn-like last night with the left foot lasers of Billings, Schneider, Webster and Gwilt and our regularly high and costly clanger count took a tumble as a result.

Edit: Oops, just realised this is last year's thread!

 

[SizeMatters]

Lions cleaned up this draft. Already five of the seven drafted last year have played AFL footy and have not looked out of place at all. All look like 50 gamers. Cutler looks like he could be a very special player with great awareness, game sense and is a good size. Robbo is a beast that had the better of Cotchin last week but got tired a bit as the game went on. Cotchin got stats but wasn't influential at all during the game until the last 20 minutes.

 

[Skippos]

Knightmare,

Was just curious to see if the first 6 rounds have changed your thoughts on some of the 2013 crop. Any blokes slid or risen up your (hypothetical, I guess) power rankings since draft day?

As an aside - what have you thought about Tom Boyd so far? Is he tracking how you'd have expected. Do you reckon he'll have a development/impact curve similar to a Daniher type or more a Patton type or even a bit later hitting his straps?

Cheers

 

[iBeng]

Cracking game from Aish this weekend hes really starting to click at this level now. Will still be having a few up and down games this season, but if he can stay injury free he could potentially be the best of the top 10 with his skills and effort so far.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Cracking game from Aish this weekend hes really starting to click at this level now. Will still be having a few up and down games this season, but if he can stay injury free he could potentially be the best of the top 10 with his skills and effort so far.

Aish certainly looks a chance to make some recruiters of the clubs that overlooked him look incredibly stupid.

KK, Kelly and Billings (who's game could have been a little better if he managed to kick straight ) also off to a good start though. McDonald fitted in seamlessly. That's just 5 of the top 10. Top 10 looking pretty solid just 6 months into their careers.

 

[Skippos]

Aish certainly looks a chance to make some recruiters of the clubs that overlooked him look incredibly stupid.

KK, Kelly and Billings (who's game could have been a little better if he managed to kick straight ) also off to a good start though. McDonald fitted in seamlessly. That's just 5 of the top 10. Top 10 looking pretty solid just 6 months into their careers.

Yeah look I reckon the top core from this draft has a chance to rival the 2011 pool in hindsight - O'Meara, Wingard, Patton, Cameron, Mitchell, Crouch, Coniglio, Treloar then blokes like Tyson, Hampton, Hill, Ellis, Tomlinson, Shiel, Smith, Merrett, Haynes, Hoskin-Elliot, Witts, Newnes - strong and deep draft.

In this one I can really see Martin, Hogan, Boyd, Kelly, Aish, Scharenberg, Billings and maybe even McDonald really rival that 2011 top end when we look back in hindsight. Also looks to be a really strong chasing group too. Just my 0.02c

 

[Chaisa]

Yeah look I reckon the top core from this draft has a chance to rival the 2011 pool in hindsight - O'Meara, Wingard, Patton, Cameron, Mitchell, Crouch, Coniglio, Treloar then blokes like Tyson, Hampton, Hill, Ellis, Tomlinson, Shiel, Smith, Merrett, Haynes, Hoskin-Elliot, Witts, Newnes - strong and deep draft.

In this one I can really see Martin, Hogan, Boyd, Kelly, Aish, Scharenberg, Billings and maybe even McDonald really rival that 2011 top end when we look back in hindsight. Also looks to be a really strong chasing group too. Just my 0.02c

Don't see how Jaeger and Crouch count as 2011. Particularly given you counted Hogan and Martin as 2013.

Shiel deserves to be in the top core IMO.

 

[Knightmare]

Cracking game from Aish this weekend hes really starting to click at this level now. Will still be having a few up and down games this season, but if he can stay injury free he could potentially be the best of the top 10 with his skills and effort so far.

I'm not certain Aish will be the best in the draft/the best of the top 10 but he's a fair chance to be a high level 300 games which is a great outcome if he makes it to my projected mark. Rising star this year may also be achievable with the field relatively open.

Knightmare,

Was just curious to see if the first 6 rounds have changed your thoughts on some of the 2013 crop. Any blokes slid or risen up your (hypothetical, I guess) power rankings since draft day?

As an aside - what have you thought about Tom Boyd so far? Is he tracking how you'd have expected. Do you reckon he'll have a development/impact curve similar to a Daniher type or more a Patton type or even a bit later hitting his straps?

Cheers

Plenty would change if I was to re-do my draft.

With the way the game is going and become more a running and kicking game with more a transition running and outside focus than previously I'd have Nathan Freeman higher and certainly inside my top 20 even without games at any level to this point.
Tom Langdon is playing very well for a first year and would be inside my best 25. And that's just Collingwood.

So many examples of guys I've missed. St Kilda fans will be quick to point out my miss with Eli Templeton.

Cutler and Robertson for Brisbane could a little higher with both looking pretty good to this point - but were hard to evaluate last year as they both missed most of 2014 with injury.

There will be others who come to mind. Perhaps at the end of the season if you request me to do my power rankings for the 2013 group I'll amended my power rankings then.

On Boyd I'm not so fussed by how he looks in season one. Franklin only averaged a goal a game in his first season and J.Brown, Pavlich and N.Riewoldt did no better. Key forwards in year one never dominate and Jeremy Cameron is the best immediate key forward we've seen in recent times averaging nearly two goals in that first season. Boyd because of the slower development key forwards go through will be judged on his improvement from season to season as is the case with all key forwards with season three likely where he starts to show signs that he can be a difference maker and season four where he really puts it together and starts to dominate.
The GWS front half is oversized so it's hard to evaluate exactly how good each key forward is. The tall/small balance just isn't right at this point and as a result none of the key forwards get used as much as they probably could.
But all three of the big key forwards (Cameron/Boyd/Patton specifically) all have the opportunity and the talent where you'd expect them all to become top five key forwards in the competition assuming good health with Cameron already there.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Was 2008 the first year on BigFooty where in depth and comprehensive analysis and ratings of draftees was the right way of assessing possible draftees or did it start when BigFooty was founded in 1999?

Because I noticed that it wasn't until 4-5 years ago that 5 or 6 round mocks were present coupled with rookie drafts.

Before joining BigFooty, the first threads I read were the U18's threads of 2008.

Names such as Watts, Naitanui, Rich, Vickery, Sidebottom, Hartlett, Zaharakis, Ziebell, Trengove, Blease and Sloane were names I saw heaps of.

Blease and Sloane in particular because they're Eastern Ranges products.

 

[Knightmare]

Was 2008 the first year on BigFooty where in depth and comprehensive analysis and ratings of draftees was the right way of assessing possible draftees or did it start when BigFooty was founded in 1999?

Because I noticed that it wasn't until 4-5 years ago that 5 or 6 round mocks were present coupled with rookie drafts.

Before joining BigFooty, the first threads I read were the U18's threads of 2008.

Names such as Watts, Naitanui, Rich, Vickery, Sidebottom, Hartlett, Zaharakis, Ziebell, Trengove, Blease and Sloane were names I saw heaps of.

Blease and Sloane in particular because they're Eastern Ranges products.

I first discovered bigfooty late 2009 (September?) and signed up right away.

I can't speak about anything that happened before that. Snoop Dog, Quigley or Chris25 might be able to give you more insight as to when things started to get interesting but the level of engagement on here late 2009 was already strong.

 

[Ancient Tiger]

Appreciate the hard work you put into this Knightmare. Used to enjoy Weaver's work before you until he was recruited by one of the WA clubs as part of their recruiting team.
Keep it rolling!

 

[Reptilia]

Hey Knightmare,

Im curious to see what your power rankings for 2013 and 2014 would be.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare,

Im curious to see what your power rankings for 2013 and 2014 would be.

Given the knowledge I have today of what the 2013 boys are doing I'd go with a top 20 power rankings for 2013/2014 of.

Of the 2013 group I'll stick with the same top 10 but I'd adjust the order as anyone would as they see games so in this order I'll take advantage of hindsight.

1. Thomas Boyd
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Peter Wright
4. Patrick McCartin
5. Jesse Hogan
6. Isaac Heeney
7. Angus Brayshaw
8. Christian Petracca
9. James Aish
10. Jack Billings
11. Matthew Scharenberg
12. Luke McDonald
13. Kade Kolodjashnij
14. Jack Martin
15. Jayden Laverde
16. Paul Ahern
17. Darcy Moore
18. Blake Acres
19. Caleb Marchbank
20. Sam Durdin

Ask me in another week and I'd probably give you a completely different order but that's for a rough feel without spending too much time deliberating over ever pick in every position.

The big changes from last year are the substantial rise of Bontempelli who looks like the next Kouta and the drop of Jack Martin who has started slower than expected, he'll come good but isn't nearly there yet and may not be the transcendent star many have projected. Acres and his position I'm still on the cautious side with but I still really like his scope for improvement and I'll stick by him in my top 20 for the 13/14 drafts until it's clear he's not.

 

[blueiris]

Given the knowledge I have today of what the 2013 boys are doing I'd go with a top 20 power rankings for 2013/2014 of.

Of the 2013 group I'll stick with the same top 10 but I'd adjust the order as anyone would as they see games so in this order I'll take advantage of hindsight.

1. Thomas Boyd
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Peter Wright
4. Patrick McCartin
5. Jesse Hogan
6. Isaac Heeney
7. Angus Brayshaw
8. Christian Petracca
9. James Aish
10. Jack Billings
11. Matthew Scharenberg
12. Luke McDonald
13. Kade Kolodjashnij
14. Jack Martin
15. Jayden Laverde
16. Paul Ahern
17. Darcy Moore
18. Blake Acres
19. Caleb Marchbank
20. Sam Durdin

Ask me in another week and I'd probably give you a completely different order but that's for a rough feel without spending too much time deliberating over ever pick in every position.

The big changes from last year are the substantial rise of Bontempelli who looks like the next Kouta and the drop of Jack Martin who has started slower than expected, he'll come good but isn't nearly there yet and may not be the transcendent star many have projected. Acres and his position I'm still on the cautious side with but I still really like his scope for improvement and I'll stick by him in my top 20 for the 13/14 drafts until it's clear he's not.

You dont rate Taylor he's been the most consistent of the players drafted this year

 

[Reptilia]

Given the knowledge I have today of what the 2013 boys are doing I'd go with a top 20 power rankings for 2013/2014 of.

Of the 2013 group I'll stick with the same top 10 but I'd adjust the order as anyone would as they see games so in this order I'll take advantage of hindsight.

1. Thomas Boyd
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Peter Wright
4. Patrick McCartin
5. Jesse Hogan
6. Isaac Heeney
7. Angus Brayshaw
8. Christian Petracca
9. James Aish
10. Jack Billings
11. Matthew Scharenberg
12. Luke McDonald
13. Kade Kolodjashnij
14. Jack Martin
15. Jayden Laverde
16. Paul Ahern
17. Darcy Moore
18. Blake Acres
19. Caleb Marchbank
20. Sam Durdin

Ask me in another week and I'd probably give you a completely different order but that's for a rough feel without spending too much time deliberating over ever pick in every position.

The big changes from last year are the substantial rise of Bontempelli who looks like the next Kouta and the drop of Jack Martin who has started slower than expected, he'll come good but isn't nearly there yet and may not be the transcendent star many have projected. Acres and his position I'm still on the cautious side with but I still really like his scope for improvement and I'll stick by him in my top 20 for the 13/14 drafts until it's clear he's not.

Thanks mate, I rate your opinion very highly and am always interested to see what you think .

Now after two years of the 2012 draft.. what are your power rankings ?

 

[Knightmare]

You dont rate Taylor he's been the most consistent of the players drafted this year

Taylor is a guy where he's good now and will have a strong career but others will improve more.

Smalls generally don't have as much of a physical transition period and are more in tune with what their bodies can do from the get go.

With the taller types there is more of a learning curve and with that greater upside.

I'll back in my top 10 rankings from last year ahead of Taylor at this point but ask me another year from now and I may well with that extra year and more information from that extra year have a completely different view again.

Thanks mate, I rate your opinion very highly and am always interested to see what you think .

Now after two years of the 2012 draft.. what are your power rankings ?

For 2012 today I'd go with roughly:

1. Jaeger O'Meara
2. Joe Daniher
3. Brodie Grundy
4. Brad Crouch
5. Oliver Wines
6. Jackson Macrae
7. Lachie Whitfield
8. Jack Viney
9. Martin Gleeson
10. Jake Stringer
11. Nick Vlastuin
12. Sam Mayes
13. Jimmy Toumpas
14. Lachie Hunter
15. Jonathan O'Rourke
16. Tim Broomhead
17. Nathan Wright
18. Tom Clurey
19. Kristian Jaksch
20. Lachie Plowman

 

[bloke_]

Given the knowledge I have today of what the 2013 boys are doing I'd go with a top 20 power rankings for 2013/2014 of.

Of the 2013 group I'll stick with the same top 10 but I'd adjust the order as anyone would as they see games so in this order I'll take advantage of hindsight.

1. Thomas Boyd
2. Marcus Bontempelli
3. Peter Wright
4. Patrick McCartin
5. Jesse Hogan
6. Isaac Heeney
7. Angus Brayshaw
8. Christian Petracca
9. James Aish
10. Jack Billings
11. Matthew Scharenberg
12. Luke McDonald
13. Kade Kolodjashnij
14. Jack Martin
15. Jayden Laverde
16. Paul Ahern
17. Darcy Moore
18. Blake Acres
19. Caleb Marchbank
20. Sam Durdin

Ask me in another week and I'd probably give you a completely different order but that's for a rough feel without spending too much time deliberating over ever pick in every position.

The big changes from last year are the substantial rise of Bontempelli who looks like the next Kouta and the drop of Jack Martin who has started slower than expected, he'll come good but isn't nearly there yet and may not be the transcendent star many have projected. Acres and his position I'm still on the cautious side with but I still really like his scope for improvement and I'll stick by him in my top 20 for the 13/14 drafts until it's clear he's not.

Where do you rate Jarrod Pickett this year? Out of the 9-10 you listed from this years draft I'd have thought he'd be there

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you rate Jarrod Pickett this year? Out of the 9-10 you listed from this years draft I'd have thought he'd be there

See my power rankings in the 2014 phantom draft for where I have everyone positioned: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2014-phantom-draft.1060197/

 

[AT97]

Taylor is a guy where he's good now and will have a strong career but others will improve more.

Smalls generally don't have as much of a physical transition period and are more in tune with what their bodies can do from the get go.

With the taller types there is more of a learning curve and with that greater upside.

I'll back in my top 10 rankings from last year ahead of Taylor at this point but ask me another year from now and I may well with that extra year and more information from that extra year have a completely different view again.



For 2012 today I'd go with roughly:

1. Jaeger O'Meara
2. Joe Daniher
3. Brodie Grundy
4. Brad Crouch
5. Oliver Wines
6. Jackson Macrae
7. Lachie Whitfield
8. Jack Viney
9. Martin Gleeson
10. Jake Stringer
11. Nick Vlastuin
12. Sam Mayes
13. Jimmy Toumpas
14. Lachie Hunter
15. Jonathan O'Rourke
16. Tim Broomhead
17. Nathan Wright
18. Tom Clurey
19. Kristian Jaksch
20. Lachie Plowman

Taylor is a guy where he's good now and will have a strong career but others will improve more.

Smalls generally don't have as much of a physical transition period and are more in tune with what their bodies can do from the get go.

With the taller types there is more of a learning curve and with that greater upside.

I'll back in my top 10 rankings from last year ahead of Taylor at this point but ask me another year from now and I may well with that extra year and more information from that extra year have a completely different view again.



For 2012 today I'd go with roughly:

1. Jaeger O'Meara
2. Joe Daniher
3. Brodie Grundy
4. Brad Crouch
5. Oliver Wines
6. Jackson Macrae
7. Lachie Whitfield
8. Jack Viney
9. Martin Gleeson
10. Jake Stringer
11. Nick Vlastuin
12. Sam Mayes
13. Jimmy Toumpas
14. Lachie Hunter
15. Jonathan O'Rourke
16. Tim Broomhead
17. Nathan Wright
18. Tom Clurey
19. Kristian Jaksch
20. Lachie Plowman

Taylor is a guy where he's good now and will have a strong career but others will improve more.

Smalls generally don't have as much of a physical transition period and are more in tune with what their bodies can do from the get go.

With the taller types there is more of a learning curve and with that greater upside.

I'll back in my top 10 rankings from last year ahead of Taylor at this point but ask me another year from now and I may well with that extra year and more information from that extra year have a completely different view again.



For 2012 today I'd go with roughly:

1. Jaeger O'Meara
2. Joe Daniher
3. Brodie Grundy
4. Brad Crouch
5. Oliver Wines
6. Jackson Macrae
7. Lachie Whitfield
8. Jack Viney
9. Martin Gleeson
10. Jake Stringer
11. Nick Vlastuin
12. Sam Mayes
13. Jimmy Toumpas
14. Lachie Hunter
15. Jonathan O'Rourke
16. Tim Broomhead
17. Nathan Wright
18. Tom Clurey
19. Kristian Jaksch
20. Lachie Plowman

Troy Menzel?

 

[Rockford]

Of the 2013 group I'll stick with the same top 10 but I'd adjust the order as anyone would as they see games so in this order I'll take advantage of hindsight.

11. Matthew Scharenberg

What's keeping Scharenberg in the top 10 for 2013? What about the exposed form of Kelly, Taylor or Merrett? Or even Dunstan, Crouch or Sheed?

Just wondering as well, whereabouts roughly would you have Langdon and JKH now? Still a way to go for either of them but their decision making and skills look top shelf. I think they've both been impressive for first year players and shown a bit to suggest either of them could push into discussions of the top 10 or so players of the 2013 draft longer term.

 

[Cleric]

For 2012 today I'd go with roughly:

1. Jaeger O'Meara
2. Joe Daniher
3. Brodie Grundy
4. Brad Crouch
5. Oliver Wines
6. Jackson Macrae
7. Lachie Whitfield
8. Jack Viney
9. Martin Gleeson
10. Jake Stringer
11. Nick Vlastuin
12. Sam Mayes
13. Jimmy Toumpas
14. Lachie Hunter
15. Jonathan O'Rourke
16. Tim Broomhead
17. Nathan Wright
18. Tom Clurey
19. Kristian Jaksch
20. Lachie Plowman

Thats one hell of a talent pool. You think it could go down as the best draft ever?

 

[SizeMatters]

Who the hell is Gleeson? Wouldn't have him over Mayes I would
Have thought. Mayes is learning a new position but his ball use it elite if doubt I would have him outside the top 8.

 

[eth-dog]

Who the hell is Gleeson? Wouldn't have him over Mayes I would
Have thought. Mayes is learning a new position but his ball use it elite if doubt I would have him outside the top 8.

Gleeson is a very talented inside/outside midfielder with good skills. Probably not as good as Mayes yet but he's going to be a player.