Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[12Chill]

Just a thought...
Could Pretracca go to GWS with 4?
If McCartin goes 1, Brayshaw 2(demons love him), Wright 3?
I hope not....... Possible though

No chance. We have to take Petracca, taking McCartin would be incredibly stupid. And there's no chance in the world that Melbourne pass on him if we take McCartin...

 

[Stylo]

Wright, Miller, Webb and Butler... That's an amazing haul for Richmond. Hope you're on the money with this one KM!

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

What's your view on Garlett's disposal? Do you rate him as a first round pick or do you see that as North filling a need?
Can I ask your reasons for North selecting Lonie ahead of McLean?

 

[bellpark]

Hi KM, I am really perplexed at your pick 10 for the Cats. I first thought 'that will change' when you put Ahern there, but you keep him there over time and I don't get it. If you read the end of your own analysis on him, there is no way he would be top 10. I would love to know why you think he would be a pick for the Cats when he is inconsistent and goes missing regularly. Against that, there are any number of what appear to be consistent performers with upside there, as less risky but never-the-less potential A grade contributors. In addition, our backlog of mids ready to be tried and tested this year is pretty good, so there is still the opportunity to take a KPP like Goddard, or maybe a Lever if he slips due to his knee. Anyway, just interested as he does'nt seem to be too 'Geelong" to me.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare would love the Eagles to end up with Cockatoo and Markov, not sure about Hamilton though. Gets the ball alright but disposal doesn't look good and the Eagles already have enough players that don't have good disposal.

Hamilton's ball use is the best feature of his game as a really classy small forward who delivers it by foot into the forward 50 particularly well.

Great work as usual KM I'm in awe of the amount of time and effort you put into these, it's at an impeccable standard and you really deserve as much recognition as possible and hopefully one day to get noticed by an AFL club!

I'd be stoked if the top 10 shaped up like that, with De Goey and Ahern going top 10 giving West Coast the option of Weller, Duggan or Cockatoo. Although I must admit I'd personally be pretty disappointed if West Coast chose Cockatoo over Weller who I'm a huge fan of.
Also it's interesting to see that you don't have West Coast selecting anyone at #69, are you predicting that they instead choose to list a delisted free agent such as Lucas? If you were to have them draft someone at #69 who would it be, Abbott?

I've just gone as simplistic with my draft as completing four rounds of the draft and giving Brisbane an extra father son selection as they will be using at least that extra selection.

great work KM just wondering about the Pies pick 5. If gws pick up Laverde at 4, shouldn't we just go for the best available talent instead of picking up for our specific weaknesses? in other words pick up Wright or Lever at 5?
I would assume KM your guessing how the clubs would go for in doing your phantom draft . however if you were the pies recruiting manager who would you pick up at 5, if Laverde goes at 4. if he does not would you think collingwood would pick him up 100 percent.

I like Reece McKenzie at pick 5 if he is seen as unlikely to be available at 30. I just see him as the best guy there.

I'm an advocate of best available regardless of needs and who is there. Particularly inside the first round. Why settle for Aaron Fiora when you can have Matthew Pavlich? Winning for me is about starpower and filling those needs through trade week and free agency and if still needing to fill those needs then later in the draft or rookie draft is also worth looking into.

Whether Collingwood pick Laverde if there I cannot even answer. He may be the likely pick but it could be De Goey, Ahern, Langford. There are enough different guys being linked to Collingwood where I cannot say who will definitely at this point be Collingwood's pick or who would be rated where on their shortlist.

Where are you getting your info on Wright going to Tigers at 12? Or is it just your opinion?

It's connecting the fact that Richmond over the years have drafted a whole host of taller types - Vickers, Elton, Griffiths, McBean. Wright feels like another who just fits that type that Richmond like, and given his value and as someone Richmond could use forward or in the ruck long term I can see him logically appealing if available.

Great read as always, love your work mate!
Seeing North Melbourne will only take picks 16,25 and 36 into the draft do you think that will change who you think they might draft? If so which players could be around the mark?
Could I please have the run down on jack lonie and what kind of player he is
Also if Weller,wright or cockatoo were to slip to our pick do you think we would draft them over Garlett ?

Lonie is a small forward, he has some aggressiveness to him and has a go. He can be dangerous around goal and some of his kicks into the forward 50 to targets are excellent but can also shank other kicks. He had some strong performances through the u18 champs where he made a name for himself but his performances overall throughout the season I'd categorise only as mild. Think of him as this years Hayden Ballantyne equivalent and that's close enough to who Lonie is.

Ahern, Weller, Ellis could all be alternatives to Garlett I can see North considering. Wright could possibly be another if he to the surprise of us all falls through. It just depends on who North Melbourne rate most highly and like most as a list fit which from the outside we can only speculate.

Knight I would be really annoyed if Gws
Took Laverde. I can't see us taking Langford doesn't fit our needs at all. Same with Vickers willes. I hope Laverde is still available. I can see blakley dropping to 30?

Langford is very outside so it may be De Goey instead of Langford. They're just among two in the mix at pick 5.

Blakely won't drop to 30. Would love it if he did and I'm sure we'd pick him up if it was to be the case.

Ellis, Blakely and Rose? No thank you.

Normally I love your work KM, but I would be bitterly disappointed with this draft.

St Kilda at 21/22 are in that unlucky range in so much as the more highly rated key position players unless the Saints like Reece McKenzie will all be gone. It will be those leftovers from those viewed as top 20 prospects, I imagine like last year St Kilda look to secure value.

Great write up as always Knightmare, But I am wondering why you have the Crows taking Caleb Marchbank if Hugh Goddard would still be there?
Alot of people believe Goddard is the better of the two and more suited to the Crows needs.\

Thanks

Just updated my draft with Goddard going a touch earlier than Adelaide's pick. It just comes down to preference and who the clubs most like.

Marchbank as more a rebounding key defender may be more a fit alongside Talia who is more a shutdown guy. But either would be fits.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

My preference is Pickett, Weller, Duggan, Cockatoo, Ahern, Blakely, De Goey.
I definitely understand what you're saying which is why landing Pickett would be fantastic, but I really feel that passing up over Weller would be a huge mistake. He looks a future midfield star with his lovely boot, footy smarts, speed and class. I also suspect he'll easily add another 8 or so kg once in the AFL system. Cockatoo simply seems like too big a risk if there is quality like Weller available.
I'd be fine with West Coast nominating the **** over Duggan however. I'm a big fan of Duggan as more skilled, less productive Cotchin who can also cause damage off the HBF but I'm not quite as convinced that he'll become a star as I am with Weller.
But hey I'll still be bloody excited if we do end up with Cockatoo, who knows what he could become!

Good stuff. There's certainly a lot to like about Duggan too, but I'd be genuinely afraid of him never making the move to the midfield. This transition out of defence is talked up with every half back draftee, but so rarely happens. Do you remember even Shannon Hurn was regarded as a midfielder/flank when drafted? The Eagles don't need another half back. We already have Hurn, Waters, Ellis, Yeo, Shepperd and others. We need mids, and fast.

Other than this query there is also Duggan's pace, which isn't amazing. Simpson will definitely love him, so he's a chance, but I see him as the least risky option, and that's the sort of thinking that get's you Mastens and Shepperds and leaves Dangerfields, and Jettas on the shelf.

 

[Knightmare]

Nice work KM....
Hopefully hawks do land Dean Gore at 31, really like the look of him.
Clem smith couldn't possibly last to 56 could he?
I think there is no chance of GWS not taking Peter Wright by pick 7, sorry Richmond fans!

Smith tested poorly at the national combine - with his endurance not up to scratch. Views seem varied and he could really go anywhere - early/late, maybe even rookie draft.

GWS may still pick Wright but far from guaranteed. Probably GWS and Geelong are those before Richmond most likely to take Wright, or so the rumour mill goes.

Good work as always knighta.

Just on Weller, I'm reliably informed he will not be selected by the Suns and more than likely will go to a Vic club. If you like I can PM you with further details. Cheers.

There is quite a bit of word about that with Weller wanting to move to VIC to be in the same state as his brother. PM me if you've got any more goss than that.

KM, Is Hammelmann a sure bet at pick 61 or merely a longshot for a team perceived to have a lack of tall forward options?

Carlton already have Jones (198cm), Casboult (199cm) and Rowe (198cm). Too many talls who aren't particularly good below their knees, nor standouts as relieving rucks makes us too top heavy.

You may be right, just depends on the evaluation of Hammelmann's upside. He could well be deemed to have the greatest upside of that group.

Knightmare, if GWS get Laverde and Lever I will be a very happy man, if we get Laverde, Lever, and Pickett I could cause damage to myself with excitement!!

Do you think Collingwood is pretty set on Langford or would they still be interested in Pickett??

I haven't heard anything on Collingwood liking Pickett, though in saying that I'd take him over all the guys who have been linked to Collingwood.

In the absense of Laverde I consider De Goey Collingwood's most likely pick going off recent rumours, but Ahern and Langford both seem to be in the mix. With Collingwood anything can happen until we find out something more concrete during the week of the draft.

KM, what makes you believe that we will take Marchbank over Weller/Goddard? He hasn't really jumped out to me as a potential AFL player compared to the others.

Marchbank's form hasn't been exposed having injuries in recent times but if there he looks like a logical list fit, if Adelaide project him to become a key defender. Adelaide moved back knowing they can get their guy and Marchbank seems like he is the most likely of the leftover key defenders.

Hey KM, with Brodie smith going on a wing/into the midfield, would we draft Dillion Viojo-Rainbow?

It's one of many possibilities if Viojo-Rainbow is there at 35 which he very well may be and that key defence need is filled in the first round.

What's your view on Garlett's disposal? Do you rate him as a first round pick or do you see that as North filling a need?
Can I ask your reasons for North selecting Lonie ahead of McLean?

I see Garlett as an early second rounder who for a team needing outside run late first can be considered, which is about where he is seen in the pool by clubs also it seems. His disposal is good, he could lower his eyes more and slow down some with some of his kicks but otherwise he's a clean, relatively dual sided user of the footy.

I'd pick McLean before Lonie, I've just heard more media hype around Lonie which makes me think he goes before McLean.

Hi KM, I am really perplexed at your pick 10 for the Cats. I first thought 'that will change' when you put Ahern there, but you keep him there over time and I don't get it. If you read the end of your own analysis on him, there is no way he would be top 10. I would love to know why you think he would be a pick for the Cats when he is inconsistent and goes missing regularly. Against that, there are any number of what appear to be consistent performers with upside there, as less risky but never-the-less potential A grade contributors. In addition, our backlog of mids ready to be tried and tested this year is pretty good, so there is still the opportunity to take a KPP like Goddard, or maybe a Lever if he slips due to his knee. Anyway, just interested as he does'nt seem to be too 'Geelong" to me.

Those who watched many of the games through the u18 champs will rave about him and his grand final, or his second half anyway was good, but just for me I rate others more highly. It speaks to the evenness of the draft that I prefer others, but Ahern by many is seen as a top 10 pick and is a consideration of Collingwood at 5 and GWS inside the top 10 also, so my opinion is not reflective of that of AFL clubs.

In my update I've got Goddard going to Geelong, but my picks will be floating over the coming weeks so what you see today is probably not what you'll see next week.

 

[grundog49]

Hey KM, Could Marchbank realistically play on a wing/on the ball? And if so what would his comparison be? (I'm thinking Andrew Makie/Justin Westhoff)

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, Could Marchbank realistically play on a wing/on the ball? And if so what would his comparison be? (I'm thinking Andrew Makie/Justin Westhoff)

It's more a case of I just haven't seen him play that role up the field. I've only seen him play key defence so the talk of him up the field just seems strange for someone who down back is exceptionally capable.

 

[grundog49]

It's more a case of I just haven't seen him play that role up the field. I've only seen him play key defence so the talk of him up the field just seems strange for someone who down back is exceptionally capable.

Aparently he was a winger then a mobile/rebounding defender then key defender. He has a 14 beep which is pretty good for his size.

 

[x_les_x]

Glenn looks a very realistic option who has been linked to us so I'm thinking that's pretty much a lock. Of tall defenders. who are some names that have been thrown up late; creeper tester smokey types?

 

[Knightmare]

Glenn looks a very realistic option who has been linked to us so I'm thinking that's pretty much a lock. Of tall defenders. who are some names that have been thrown up late; creeper tester smokey types?

Logan Austin, Daniel Nielson, Hugh Beasley, Adam Creeper, Ryan Tester. Sean McLaren could make the switch back. Michael Hartley. There are enough late/rookie draft.

 

[burglerbaron]

I think Essendon would be very pleased to add the inside clearance of Blakely and outside speed of Weller to the likes of Heppell, the Merretts and Gleeson.

 

[Jed Clampet]

Hamilton's ball use is the best feature of his game as a really classy small forward who delivers it by foot into the forward 50 particularly well.

Thanks for the reply, I've only seen a highlight video of him after you selected him for the Eagles. His disposal didn't look that good and his handball wasn't good, handballed behind teammates. But I'll believe you, maybe he should upload his own highlights package.

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

Conner Blakely looks a very exciting prospect. What are the chances a club has him pinned as thier first round pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Conner Blakely looks a very exciting prospect. What are the chances a club has him pinned as thier first round pick?

Certainly possible, but uncertain as someone who will go likely late first - early second round. For me after those first two (Brayshaw and Petracca) if I want a midfielder I'm taking Blakely.

 

[rumoursofwinter]

If we get Gregson at 75 it will be high five's all round. He looks like a natural footballer and i think he is going to be a player when he is developed. Glenn and Gregson would be great. The rest of our picks would have to be talls. Do you know much about Paul Hunter? He seems like a break glass ruck man with some upside. Cheers.

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

Certainly possible, but uncertain as someone who will go likely late first - early second round. For me after those first two (Brayshaw and Petracca) if I want a midfielder I'm taking Blakely.

Same here. If the draft falls the way you have predicted I would love North to take Blakley, McKenzie and McClean

 

[tragic]

Hey Knightmare..love your work.. Shane Rogers has stipulated that Carlton will be taking a winger high half forward with our first pick with speed and kicking skills...who do you think that fits that description would be available at pick 19?

 

[Knightmare]

If we get Gregson at 75 it will be high five's all round. He looks like a natural footballer and i think he is going to be a player when he is developed. Glenn and Gregson would be great. The rest of our picks would have to be talls. Do you know much about Paul Hunter? He seems like a break glass ruck man with some upside. Cheers.

Have seen a bit of Hunter watching many of the NEAFL games on YouTube.

Not a dominant tap ruckman or a dominant marking presence forward of centre but good around the ground and good followup player who gives good tackling effort.

Hey Knightmare..love your work.. Shane Rogers has stipulated that Carlton will be taking a winger high half forward with our first pick with speed and kicking skills...who do you think that fits that description would be available at pick 19?

Tom Lamb probably based on what you describe depending on the evaluation of his best position. He definitely has the motor and while a unique taller player is willing to take on the game and has some freakishness to him.

Jarrod Garlett as an outside runner could be another.

 

[The German Hunter]

Hey KM, do you think hawthorn would be any chance of giving Dylan Hodge a rookie spot? Would love to see if they could make an afl player out of him.
Harry Dear would be a good get now that Lowden has been traded, he may take a while but do you think it's possible?

 

[TradeDraft]

Why would think the Pies would Pick De Goey at 5 when you have him as the 15th best Prospect?

 

[Punchy Demons]

Just a thought...
Could Pretracca go to GWS with 4?
If McCartin goes 1, Brayshaw 2(demons love him), Wright 3?
I hope not....... Possible though

I think there is practically zero chance of that happening.
If Saints take McCartin at 1, Melbourne will take the best two mids in Petracca & Brayshaw.

FWIW, I think Saints take Petracca & Melbourne take Brayshaw & McCartin

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, do you think hawthorn would be any chance of giving Dylan Hodge a rookie spot? Would love to see if they could make an afl player out of him.
Harry Dear would be a good get now that Lowden has been traded, he may take a while but do you think it's possible?

I wouldn't necessarily pick Hodge but he may be a rookie chance. His production is lean and he is a beefy forward but a club may have a different vision to what I do.

Harry Dear if Hawthorn pick him anyway more likely look at him as a rookie. Hawthorn like collecting talls but I see Grimley as a better version of the same thing so he is probably by Hawthorn anyway passed on I'd guess.

Why would think the Pies would Pick De Goey at 5 when you have him as the 15th best Prospect?

My thoughts on who the best players are, are very different to who goes where.

It's like if you go through the history of the draft. If you re-order the prospects from any draft today you would invariably order them differently and prefer different players.

It's the same in the draft year, I'll evaluate talent differently to others and no one will have the same draft board. My power rankings v the way my phantom draft just reflects this.

I just see De Goey as the clubs backup plan to Laverde going off recent media rumours, or that is my best guess at the moment.

 

[TradeDraft]

My thoughts on who the best players are, are very different to who goes where.

It's like if you go through the history of the draft. If you re-order the prospects from any draft today you would invariably order them differently and prefer different players.

It's the same in the draft year, I'll evaluate talent differently to others and no one will have the same draft board. My power rankings v the way my phantom draft just reflects this.

I just see De Goey as the clubs backup plan to Laverde going off recent media rumours, or that is my best guess at the moment.

Very True - That was makes the Draft Intresting as Different People have different Thoughts and there is no such thing as a Right Answer Yet.

I would not complain at all if the Pies took De Goey at 5 but I would think there where prospect I would rated Higher