Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

KM, it seems like this year's top 10 is the most open & unpredictable it has been for a couple years. Going on various media and bigfooty phantom drafts it seems there is only a consensus about the top 3, after that opinions are very mixed.

Last year I recall Boyd, Kelly, Billings, Bontempelli, KK, Scharenberg, Freeman, Sheed & Lennon all went pretty much as expected in the top 12, plus obviously McDonald F/S.

Perhaps it will become more clear closer to the draft. Do you think the clubs are playing their cards closer to their chest this year or are just undecided?

There will be more clarity coming up to the draft but still relatively speaking it will be an unpredictable draft with the unusual evenness this year.

Apparently the tigers wants Weller>Duggan>Ellis.
Do you think Weller will be there at 12?

No guarantee Weller is there but he may be. 50/50 until we hear some strong rumours of who if anyone inside the top 11 will take him. West Coast have been the club most heavily linked to Weller before Richmond with Gold Coast another. Collingwood even are not out of the question.

 

[Stylo]

No guarantee Weller is there but he may be. 50/50 until we hear some strong rumours of who if anyone inside the top 11 will take him. West Coast have been the club most heavily linked to Weller before Richmond with Gold Coast another. Collingwood even are not out of the question.

Have you heard the rumours that he's expressed a desire to play in Vic?

 

[Knightmare]

Have you heard the rumours that he's expressed a desire to play in Vic?

There is a lot of it around at least on bigfooty, I haven't heard it confirmed by any media outlets so where he ends up/is rumoured to go the week of the draft will be interesting.

 

[Trav 20]

I heard that Mahoney interview and I'm not convinced that the four that was mentioned by the radio host are the four that they're actually looking at. Also don't forget what Roos said earlier in the year about talking tall forwards early in the draft out of the vic u/18's system, using his comments as a guide it would not 'make sense' at all to take McCartin. As for my source, with this one they're not solid enough to rely on it, but I thought I'd pass it on anyway.

My own personal preference is to take two mids but I really haven't seen them all enough to have a qualified opinion, I am however a lot more comfortable with who we have in charge now compared to previous years. The player I want I'm sure everyone on here would think he's no chance of a top 3 pick.

How many current AFL players have diabetes? Does anyone know if there are any?

You may not be convinced by Mahoney's interview, but why doubt it ? There's no reason for him to be misleading. Nothing to be gained.

As for Roos' comments at a function ? I agree with his sentiments, but I doubt he stated that if they thought there was a gun key forward they wouldn't take the player, more-so they'd be wary due to the concerns he mentioned.

I'll be amazed if we don't take McCartin should Petracca be gone.

 

[Hardas]

Great effort, KM - as always, thank you.

Your preference: Lever, Laverde or someone else at 5?

 

[Knightmare]

Great effort, KM - as always, thank you.

Your preference: Lever, Laverde or someone else at 5?

If Patrick McCartin is there he would be the pick, but otherwise I most like Reece McKenzie at 5 followed by Peter Wright, Connor Blakely (best mid available), Jarrod Pickett (best quick guy available), Jake Lever (best key defender available) then Jayden Laverde (best tall utility available) if I had to provide an extended shortlist if the Pies were after a specific type rather than just pure best available.

Most likely unless there is some word that Reece McKenzie could get through to pick 30 while it is a reach at 5 and won't happen, he's the guy I like of the available options. When you're as powerful 1v1 as he is, as strong overhead as he is able to take it at the highest point but then has his leap and his pace on the lead I like what he offers.

 

[Team DJ]

Would love if the Crows came out with Ahern Rainbow Ramsey and Wigg. Ramsey fills that mobile key defender role. The other 3 are elite kicks and Ahern also has tat linebreaking pace we desperately need.

Interesting to see you have GWS taking all 3 of Lever Goddard and Marchbank

 

[captain cotch 9]

The #1 pick is rarely the best player in 10 years.
In your opinion which 2 players have the potential to be the best player in this draft?
IMO its Weller.

 

[Stylo]

The #1 pick is rarely the best player in 10 years.
In your opinion which 2 players have the potential to be the best player in this draft?
IMO its Weller.

I reckon Heeney

 

[mike123]

I reckon Darcy Moore

 

[Hardas]

If Patrick McCartin is there he would be the pick, but otherwise I most like Reece McKenzie at 5 followed by Peter Wright, Connor Blakely (best mid available), Jarrod Pickett (best quick guy available), Jake Lever (best key defender available) then Jayden Laverde (best tall utility available) if I had to provide an extended shortlist if the Pies were after a specific type rather than just pure best available.
Most likely unless there is some word that Reece McKenzie could get through to pick 30 while it is a reach at 5 and won't happen, he's the guy I like of the available options. When you're as powerful 1v1 as he is, as strong overhead as he is able to take it at the highest point but then has his leap and his pace on the lead I like what he offers.

Thanks, well, it's a decent list of options anyway.

 

[Knightmare]

Would love if the Crows came out with Ahern Rainbow Ramsey and Wigg. Ramsey fills that mobile key defender role. The other 3 are elite kicks and Ahern also has tat linebreaking pace we desperately need.

Interesting to see you have GWS taking all 3 of Lever Goddard and Marchbank

GWS will take at least one speedy guy - whether that be Pickett/Laverde/Ahern. Marchbank I don't expect will be on their shortlist but one or two of Lever or Goddard looks probable from GWS.

The #1 pick is rarely the best player in 10 years.
In your opinion which 2 players have the potential to be the best player in this draft?
IMO its Weller.

I wouldn't say Weller. Weller I class if anything more as a safe pick where he can be a very good player for a club but probably not a franchise player.

Reece McKenzie is one player who could in 10 years time be looked back on as the best of the lot if things go right. Laverde if he can become more a midfielder, Langford if he can develop a contested side to his game, Darcy Moore quite possibly or Patrick McCartin if things go right for them.

Peter Wright for me won't be but I think he'll be terrific none the less. Petracca is more someone who could be a top 3 guy to come out of the draft and certainly top 6/7 and I'd say the same of Brayshaw and Heeney. Blakely for me is a sure top 10 and possible top 3/4 but not top 1.

 

[captain cotch 9]

GWS will take at least one speedy guy - whether that be Pickett/Laverde/Ahern. Marchbank I don't expect will be on their shortlist but one or two of Lever or Goddard looks probable from GWS.



I wouldn't say Weller. Weller I class if anything more as a safe pick where he can be a very good player for a club but probably not a franchise player.

Reece McKenzie is one player who could in 10 years time be looked back on as the best of the lot if things go right. Laverde if he can become more a midfielder, Langford if he can develop a contested side to his game, Darcy Moore quite possibly or Patrick McCartin if things go right for them.

Peter Wright for me won't be but I think he'll be terrific none the less. Petracca is more someone who could be a top 3 guy to come out of the draft and certainly top 6/7 and I'd say the same of Brayshaw and Heeney. Blakely for me is a sure top 10 and possible top 3/4 but not top 1.

Why do you have him going at pick 20 then? Surley if he was that good someone will get him in the top 10 or 15?

 

[Knightmare]

Why do you have him going at pick 20 then? Surley if he was that good someone will get him in the top 10 or 15?

Blakely has not been rumoured to go top 10. Top 15 is plausible though somewhere around pick 20 sounds most likely.

It's a bit like Dunstan last year, Blakely seems to be seen as a slow, midfield only type which just isn't fashionable today with clubs looking for more athletic, more versatile guys.

I just see Blakely as with Dunstan last year as just a really good midfielder. He has such an advanced inside game but then has the pace/evasiveness inside the contest as Pendlebury does for it not to be an issue but then also has the efficiency of his ball use. For me he has more than enough ability to become a terrific midfielder at the next level.

 

[Knightmare]

G'day KM,

First off, thanks for the fantastic effort you put in throughout the year, always love reading your insights
Secondly, I've seen a couple of mocks mentioning De Goey's legspeed as a strength, and a few people mentioning it as a weakness. Just wondering how you rate his pace/acceleration and to what degree he uses it?

Thanks in advance

De Goey moves reasonably well but pace overall only average, he will at times inside and outside put the foot down and accelerate but it's nothing freakish by position as could be said of say Pickett/Cockatoo/Menadue.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

KM, I haven't heard anyone especially credible subscribing to this theory, but what do you think about the idea that the rumours of Collingwood going cold on Laverde is an intentional line we've been fed to put us (or rather GWS) off the scent? Personally I can't imagine the Pies giving anything away about who they're really after, so to hear such strong rumours switch from Laverde to De Goey and others, peaked my attention and suspicion.

This is not to say that De Goey, Pickett, Duggan etc aren't better options than Laverde, just that if they were dead keen on the latter they'd probably have to leak a bit of indifference in the light of such strong initial talk that they wanted him. Of course all GWS probably need to do to get the three players they want is the find out which way Collingwood are thinking.

I know it's early to be saying this, but I'm predicting a few misses in the top 10 of the high profile phantom drafts (Quayle/Twomey) this year. The info coming out of Collingwood and GWS will be especially untrustworthy you'd think.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, I haven't heard anyone especially credible subscribing to this theory, but what do you think about the idea that the rumours of Collingwood going cold on Laverde is an intentional line we've been fed to put us (or rather GWS) off the scent? Personally I can't imagine the Pies giving anything away about who they're really after, so to hear such strong rumours switch from Laverde to De Goey and others, peaked my attention and suspicion.

This is not to say that De Goey, Pickett, Duggan etc aren't better options than Laverde, just that if they were dead keen on the latter they'd probably have to leak a bit of indifference in the light of such strong initial talk that they wanted him. Of course all GWS probably need to do to get the three players they want is the find out which way Collingwood are thinking.

I know it's early to be saying this, but I'm predicting a few misses in the top 10 of the high profile phantom drafts (Quayle/Twomey) this year. The info coming out of Collingwood and GWS will be especially untrustworthy you'd think.

I can't say I have any insight into what Collingwood plan to do at 5, other than it looks like they'll pass on Wright.

Collingwood may be looking at say De Goey as an alternative to Laverde if he's not available, or maybe De Goey or someone else is preferred to Laverde. Laverde for all we know may have interviewed poorly and Collingwood might like his on field talent but not what they're hearing from him. It's all speculative until the media come out with something solid closer to draft day. Any number of things could be true regarding Collingwood's view on Laverde until we gain some further insight. But always interesting to speculate.

 

[Dan]

KM - Dylan Hodge?

Is this kid any good or will a club draft him because of his brother?

 

[Knightmare]

KM - Dylan Hodge?

Is this kid any good or will a club draft him because of his brother?

If drafted it's more the latter.

He's a stocky forward who has been average at best in the TAC.

I'd be surprised to see him drafted.

 

[GoTigers2015]

The #1 pick is rarely the best player in 10 years.
In your opinion which 2 players have the potential to be the best player in this draft?
IMO its Weller.

Reckon that Laverde is going to be one of the best 2 picks. Looks awesome from his highlights package.

 

[TerryWallet]

KM, I haven't heard anyone especially credible subscribing to this theory, but what do you think about the idea that the rumours of Collingwood going cold on Laverde is an intentional line we've been fed to put us (or rather GWS) off the scent? Personally I can't imagine the Pies giving anything away about who they're really after, so to hear such strong rumours switch from Laverde to De Goey and others, peaked my attention and suspicion.

This is not to say that De Goey, Pickett, Duggan etc aren't better options than Laverde, just that if they were dead keen on the latter they'd probably have to leak a bit of indifference in the light of such strong initial talk that they wanted him. Of course all GWS probably need to do to get the three players they want is the find out which way Collingwood are thinking.

I know it's early to be saying this, but I'm predicting a few misses in the top 10 of the high profile phantom drafts (Quayle/Twomey) this year. The info coming out of Collingwood and GWS will be especially untrustworthy you'd think.

I totally agree.

I think one thing is certain this year, don't believe ANY leak about Collingwoods intentions at Pick 5 in the next fortnight.

That is not a knock or a dig at Collingwood either. It would be the same for any Club in their unique position between GWS's 3 picks.

My bet is they would knock themselves over to read out Laverde's name on draft night....if he is still there.

 

[Babylove]

I totally agree.

I think one thing is certain this year, don't believe ANY leak about Collingwoods intentions at Pick 5 in the next fortnight.

That is not a knock or a dig at Collingwood either. It would be the same for any Club in their unique position between GWS's 3 picks.

My bet is they would knock themselves over to read out Laverde's name on draft night....if he is still there.

Yeah the timing of the rumours surrounding us going cold on him seem to correlate with the timing of GWS warming to him, which raises the possibility of him not being available at our selection.

My guess (and this is just speculation) is that we have been putting work into alternative possibilities in case GWS do take him. Whether this has resulted in someone going ahead of Laverde in preference is another question.

 

[banana_bus]

Hi KM, love your work, only 2 weeks out from draft day now!!

Out of curiosity, who do you think will miss out on being drafted this year from the AIS Academy and what do you think of its merits as a vehicle for developing talent?

 

[Bulldogsnm1]

Hi KM, love your work, only 2 weeks out from draft day now!!

Out of curiosity, who do you think will miss out on being drafted this year from the AIS Academy and what do you think of its merits as a vehicle for developing talent?

What a wonderful and loaded question!!!! I have strong opinions on this however I am really interested in hearing other views.

 

[banana_bus]

CLASS OF 2012

Jordan Bourke - Brisbane
Clay Cameron - Gold Coast
Brodie Murdoch - St Kilda
Aiden Corr - GWS
Joe Daniher - Essendon
Ben Kennedy - Collingwood
Brodie Grundy - Collingwood
Matthew Haynes - UNDRAFTED
Emmanuel Irra - UNDRAFTED
Jesse Lonergan - Gold Coast
Liam McBean - Richmond
Sam Mayes - Brisbane
Troy Menzel - Carlton
Tim Membrey - Sydeny/St Kilda
Jonathan O’Rourke - GWS/Hawthorn
Lachlan Plowman - GWS
Jason Pongracic - UNDRAFTED
Mason Shaw - Port Adelaide
Josh Simpson - Fremantle - DELISTED
Tanner Smith - Fremantle
James Stewart - GWS
Jake Stringer - Bulldogs
Shannon Taylor - UNDRAFTED
Jimmy Toumpas - Melbourne
Jack Viney - Melbourne F/S
Nick Vlastuin - Richmond
Lachie Whitfield - GWS
Laine Wilkins - UNDRAFTED
Oliver Wines - Port Adelaide
Nathan Wright - St Kilda